↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 润哥 来源：雪球 为什么很多投资者学习了很多成功投资者的经验 ， 但是实战中依然亏钱 ？ 除了要学习价值投资理论 ， 我认为投资者底层逻辑也要修改 。 一个人想要改变一个底层逻辑是很难的 。 但是这是必须要做的 。 第一 、 书山有路勤为径 ， 学海无涯苦作舟 。 要在学习投资上花时间 ， 除了工作 、 睡觉 ， 家庭 ， 应该把其余所有时间花在学习投资上 。 我 觉得最起码要看过超过100本的价值投资书籍 ， 把财务自由放在人生最重要的事情 。 要对理财 ， 投资充分重视 ， 严肃对待 ， 热爱 。 我甚至 认为 ， 一个人在财务自由前 ， 除了赚钱不应该有其他爱好 。 第二 、 知己知彼百战不殆 。 股市如战场 ， 首先要了解自己 ， 了解自己的弱点在哪里 ， 你的弱点 ， 可能会在股市被放大 ， 最终因为自己性格 和各方面的弱点在股市亏钱 。 我常说一句话 。 每个人注定要为自己的情怀 、 立场 、 意识形态 、 信仰买单 、 性格 。 很多人把自己的情怀立场 ， 意识形态 ...

Core Viewpoint - Many investors learn from successful investment experiences but still incur losses in practice, indicating a need to modify underlying investment logic [3] Group 1: Learning and Mindset - Investors should dedicate significant time to learning about investment, aiming to read over 100 books on value investing and prioritize financial freedom [3] - Understanding oneself and recognizing personal weaknesses is crucial, as these weaknesses can be magnified in the stock market [3] - Investors must break free from herd mentality and think independently, as the majority is often wrong in the stock market [4] Group 2: Analytical Thinking - Investors should focus on correlation rather than causation, as establishing cause-and-effect relationships in the stock market is challenging [5] - Utilizing statistical principles is essential, as relying on intuition can lead to poor decision-making; long-term investments are often more profitable than short-term ones [6] Group 3: Strategic and Emotional Considerations - Strategic thinking is vital for long-term investment success, considering broader economic and historical contexts [7] - A stable mindset is more important than high skill levels; emotional fluctuations can negatively impact investment outcomes [8] Group 4: Continuous Improvement and Support - Investors should remain humble and open to learning, acknowledging their imperfections and seeking to improve [9] - Gaining family support for investment activities is important, as societal biases against investors can create additional challenges [10] Group 5: Time Management and Focus - Investors should prioritize important tasks and relationships, avoiding distractions from unimportant matters [10] - Recognizing cyclical patterns in the market is crucial, as all investments are subject to cycles [11][12] Group 6: Passion and Curiosity - Maintaining passion for investment and curiosity for knowledge is essential for continuous growth and success in the field [13]

华为的成功，离不开任正非的前瞻性和决断力。 我们读《华为的冬天》一文就可以感知到他的高瞻远瞩，远见卓识，"记住一句话：'物极必反'，这一场网络、设备供应的冬天，也会像热得人们 不理解一样，冷得出奇。没有预见，没有预防，就会冻死。那时，谁有棉衣，谁就活下来了。" 郭平是华为公司最早的员工之一，他在华为创办次年（1988）就加入公司了，历任产品开发部项目经理、供应链总经理、总裁办主任、首席法务 官、华为终端公司董事长兼总裁、公司轮值CEO、轮值董事长、监事会主席等职务。 俗话说得好，早知三日事，富贵一千年。世事无常，这个世界永远充满了变化，如果你晓得未来发生什么，那你就能抓住机遇，顺势而起。 "回顾华为的发展历程，深感每次变革既是在激烈的市场竞争中被逼出来的，更是来自创始人任正非先生的前瞻性和决断力，使得华为在'冬天'没 有到来的时候，就提前准备好了棉衣。华为每次重大变革都没有失败，这无疑得益于任正非先生深远的顶层设计。" 如郭平所言，任正非的远见有不可替代性，任正非是真正具备预见性和全局观点的领导者。 这也是任正非给老板们的启示，你作为老板必须有战略意识才行，要知道远见是最大财富，果断决策是最关键能力。 华为能 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing volatility in global capital markets and how different investment strategies are performing differently, emphasizing that ordinary investors can accumulate wealth through dedication and market engagement [1] - Three experienced investors shared their practical experiences and strategies at the Xueqiu Carnival, highlighting the importance of adapting investment strategies based on market conditions and personal reflections on past performance [1] Group 2 - The defensive nature of low-risk investments can be assessed through yield calculations, while stock investments should focus on minimizing capital loss by selecting stocks with limited downside and significant upside potential [3][6] - The selling logic for stocks includes both active and passive strategies, with active selling triggered by event-driven changes or slowing performance, and passive selling adhering to strict stop-loss and take-profit rules [6] Group 3 - Reflections on 2025 investments reveal missed opportunities and the importance of decisive action, with lessons learned about the need for independent judgment and avoiding external influences [8][9] - Key investment trends for 2026 include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, quantitative easing, and the potential for commodity price increases driven by currency fluctuations [10] Group 4 - Ordinary investors are advised to prioritize loss avoidance over daily profit, with strategies focusing on avoiding overvalued stocks, managing liquidity risks, and maintaining a balanced mindset during market fluctuations [16][19] - The article emphasizes the importance of a disciplined approach to investing, including time investment in learning, recognizing personal biases, and focusing on core investment areas [15]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of wisdom in various aspects of life, from personal conduct to governance, highlighting the historical and contemporary significance of wisdom in Chinese culture [1] Group 1: Strategic Thinking - The book illustrates strategic thinking through Confucius's insights on the relationship between civil and military affairs, using historical examples to demonstrate foresight and preparedness in diplomacy [2] - It discusses the importance of understanding strengths and weaknesses, exemplified by General Li Guang's military tactics, which were effectively utilized by Emperor Wu of Han [2] Group 2: Purpose of the Book - The compilation of the book is driven by respect for scientists and entrepreneurs whose innovations have advanced productivity and societal progress, aiming to inspire readers to become wise thinkers [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of strategic foresight, the ability to identify opportunities and challenges, and the need for a scientific approach to future planning [1][2] - Strategic thinking is defined as the ability to view issues from a holistic perspective, making decisions based on a comprehensive understanding of the situation [2][3] - Key characteristics of strategic thinking include having a broad vision, foresight, precision in identifying critical issues, and the ability to innovate [3][4] Group 2 - The focus on major contradictions and prioritizing key areas is crucial for effective strategic implementation, particularly in economic reforms [4][5] - Maintaining strategic determination while balancing flexibility in tactics is essential for navigating complex situations [5][6] - Enhancing strategic thinking capabilities requires a foundation in scientific methods and practical experience, emphasizing the importance of theoretical knowledge and grassroots engagement [5][6]

Core Insights - The essence of a company's success lies in its strategic thinking and the ability to implement strategies, which cannot be replaced by management concepts [2][4] - Strategic thinking focuses on making choices about what to do and what not to do, rather than merely solving immediate problems [3][7] - Management efforts often address current issues, while strategic efforts are about future positioning and value creation [5][6] Strategic Thinking vs. Management - Strategic thinking is fundamentally about making choices that determine a company's fate, while management deals with unavoidable issues that arise in business operations [6][10] - Companies must prioritize strategic choices over problem-solving to ensure long-term survival and growth [5][11] - A clear distinction exists between strategic thinking (what to pursue) and management (how to address problems) [7][12] Importance of Sustainable Development - Strategic choices should be based on sustainable development rather than immediate profitability, as profit is a result of strategic decisions [8][9] - Companies focusing solely on problem-solving risk missing future opportunities and may become stagnant [8][11] - Historical data suggests that even long-established companies may not survive if they fail to adapt strategically [8][9] Environmental Interaction - Companies must align their strategies with environmental changes to maintain competitiveness and seize growth opportunities [13][14] - Understanding and responding to shifts in consumer behavior and industry dynamics is crucial for sustained success [13][14] - Companies that engage with their environment and adapt to changes are more likely to thrive [14]

Core Insights - The article discusses the tragic story of a successful businessman, Zhuang Hua, who suddenly passed away despite his immense wealth and recent business success, highlighting the balance between wealth and health [1][22][35] Group 1: Business Model and Philosophy - Zhuang Hua viewed the world as a vast balance sheet, focusing on optimizing assets and transforming everything into quantifiable investments [1][4] - He prioritized "human" capital, emphasizing strategic thinking over traditional qualifications, and only targeted high-performing professionals [4][6] - His business model was highly selective, treating talent acquisition like stock trading, aiming for the highest return on investment [4][6] Group 2: Personal Management and Health - Zhuang Hua maintained a rigorous fitness regimen, viewing his body as a tool for sustaining high work intensity, but neglected the inherent risks of health [10][14] - He underestimated the unpredictability of life, failing to account for potential health crises in his meticulously calculated life model [13][19] - His tragic demise serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of equating management with control, particularly regarding personal health [13][20] Group 3: Societal Reflection - The incident resonated with many, reflecting a broader societal trend of quantifying life through metrics like KPIs and fitness apps, mirroring Zhuang Hua's approach [24][26] - The story raises critical questions about the pursuit of precision in life versus the need for stability and the importance of unquantifiable aspects like rest and uncertainty [33][35] - It emphasizes the necessity of allocating sufficient value to health and relaxation in one's life balance sheet, suggesting that these may yield the highest returns [35]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the importance of long-term strategic planning in economic development, as exemplified by Xi Jinping's early involvement in formulating the economic and social development strategy for Xiamen from 1985 to 2000 [2][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context - In 1985, the State Council approved the expansion of the Xiamen Special Economic Zone to encompass the entire island, marking a significant development phase [3]. - Xi Jinping, who was then the Deputy Mayor of Xiamen, initiated the creation of a long-term development strategy to guide decision-making for the region [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Planning - The development strategy, which took a year and a half to complete, involved extensive research and collaboration with over 100 experts and practitioners, resulting in a comprehensive report of over 200,000 words [3]. - Xi emphasized the need for leaders to consider long-term implications and to be willing to lay the groundwork for future success, reflecting a broader vision and strategic mindset [4][7]. Group 3: Leadership Insights - Xi's approach to leadership has consistently involved a keen awareness of broader trends and a commitment to strategic planning, as demonstrated during his tenure in various roles, including in Fuzhou and Zhejiang [5][6]. - The article underscores Xi's belief that strategic issues are fundamental to the success of a party and a nation, advocating for accurate strategic judgments and scientific planning [7]. Group 4: Current Implications - The article notes that the current year marks the conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the beginning of planning for the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for adapting to changing circumstances and strategically positioning economic development [7]. - Xi's recent discussions on the "15th Five-Year Plan" highlight the importance of developing new productive forces tailored to local conditions and ensuring alignment with national objectives [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of agricultural modernization and rural revitalization in China's development strategy, highlighting the significant role of farmers and rural communities in achieving these goals [2][4][5]. Group 1: Importance of "Three Rural Issues" - The "Three Rural Issues" (agriculture, rural areas, and farmers) are fundamental to national economic and social stability, and addressing them is a priority for the Communist Party of China [4][5]. - Xi Jinping's important discourse on "Three Rural Issues" serves as a guiding framework for policy and practice, reflecting a deep concern for the well-being of farmers and rural development [5][9]. Group 2: Historical and Strategic Perspectives - Understanding agricultural and rural issues requires a historical perspective, recognizing the evolution of these challenges and the need for a long-term vision [16][15]. - The strategy for rural revitalization must align with the broader goals of national modernization, integrating agricultural development into the overall framework of national progress [15][9]. Group 3: Practical Approaches and Implementation - Effective implementation of rural revitalization strategies involves a combination of top-down design and grassroots innovation, ensuring that policies are relevant and responsive to local needs [10][11]. - The government must play a proactive role in facilitating market dynamics while ensuring that agricultural practices are sustainable and beneficial for farmers [11][12]. Group 4: Focus on Farmers' Well-being - Policies should prioritize the immediate interests of farmers, addressing their concerns regarding employment, education, healthcare, and housing to enhance their sense of security and happiness [12][13]. - Continuous engagement with rural communities is essential to ensure that development initiatives resonate with the actual needs and aspirations of farmers [7][12]. Group 5: Supervision and Accountability - Strengthening supervision mechanisms is crucial to ensure the effective implementation of rural policies and to prevent corruption that undermines farmers' interests [20][21]. - A collaborative approach involving various levels of government and community stakeholders is necessary to create a robust framework for accountability in rural development [20][23].