Group 1: Copper Market Overview - Shanghai copper futures have surpassed 88,300 CNY per ton, while London LME copper prices have exceeded 11,000 USD per ton, both nearing historical highs, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market [1] - The surge in copper prices supports Goldman Sachs' assertion that "copper is the new oil," driven by the triple resonance of grid upgrades, AI, and new energy, making copper a strategic resource for national technological competitiveness and energy security [1] - A significant supply disruption occurred at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia due to a safety incident, exacerbating global copper supply tensions and further driving up prices [1] Group 2: Copper-Gold Ratio and Company Performance - The current copper-gold ratio is approximately 2.75, with Everbright Securities noting that this ratio is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for copper price recovery following gold price increases [1] - Companies in the non-ferrous sector are expected to report substantial profit growth for Q3, with Luoyang Molybdenum reporting a net profit of 5.608 billion CNY for Q3, a 96.4% year-on-year increase [1] - Market predictions indicate that Tongling Nonferrous Metals is expected to report a net profit of 1.25 billion CNY for Q3, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 127.9% [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Non-ferrous Metals - Zhongtai Securities highlights ongoing international supply disruptions for copper and aluminum, suggesting considerable upward price potential for basic metals in the long term [3] - Despite weak seasonal demand, supply-side disruptions and low inventory levels are providing price support for industrial metals [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector is positioned as a key player in the current commodity bull market, driven by long-term capital expenditure cycles and increasing demand for strategic metal resources amid de-globalization trends [3] Group 4: Investment Strategies in Non-ferrous Metals - A diversified investment approach through the Non-ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) is recommended to capture the overall sector's beta performance, with significant weightings in copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [5] - The ETF provides a risk diversification mechanism compared to investing in single metal sectors, making it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios [5]

Group 1: ETF Performance - The rare metals ETF recorded an intraday transaction of 32.1891 million yuan, with a significant scale increase of 707 million yuan over the past two weeks, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The latest share count for the rare metals ETF reached 4.626 billion, marking a new high since its inception and also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF saw a net inflow of 136 million yuan recently, accumulating a total of 238 million yuan over the last five trading days [3] Group 2: Historical Returns - As of October 22, 2025, the net value of the rare metals ETF has increased by 10.66% over the past three years [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 24.02%, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being five months and a maximum cumulative gain of 66.25%, averaging a monthly return of 8.60% during rising months [3] Group 3: Industry Supply and Demand - On the supply side, global electrolytic aluminum supply growth is below 3% due to constraints from energy and infrastructure, while small metals like molybdenum, antimony, and gallium face resource depletion and insufficient investment [4] - On the demand side, sectors such as data center construction, power infrastructure upgrades, new energy vehicles, energy storage, photovoltaics, 5G, and aerospace are driving rigid demand for copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - Industry experts believe that the global manufacturing investment cycle is on the rise, coupled with a growing need for strategic metal resource reserves amid de-globalization, which will continue to boost demand for non-ferrous metals [4] - The current macroeconomic recovery logic in China is strengthening, suggesting that non-ferrous metals may become core assets in the upcoming slow bull market, with a focus on industrial non-ferrous metals, small metals, and gold over the next one to two years [4] Group 5: Top Weighted Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index account for a total of 59.91%, including Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and others [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, attributed to profit-taking and reduced safe-haven demand due to easing geopolitical tensions, has negatively impacted leading companies in the precious metals sector, particularly gold stocks [3]. Summary by Category Market Performance - On October 22, the non-ferrous metal sector ETF (159876) fell by 1.73%, with a trading volume of nearly 300 million yuan, indicating active trading [1]. - As of October 21, the non-ferrous metal sector ETF (159876) had a total size of 565 million yuan, the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1]. Stock Movements - Leading gold stocks experienced significant declines, with Western Gold and Hunan Gold dropping over 5%, while Sichuan Gold and Chifeng Gold fell more than 4% [1]. - Conversely, Baotai Co. rose over 2%, and Hailiang Co. and Yun Aluminum gained more than 1%, with several other stocks like Zhongkuang Resources and China Aluminum also performing well [1]. Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices saw a rare drop of over 6%, marking the largest daily decline since April 2013, primarily due to profit-taking and a stronger dollar making gold more expensive for buyers [3]. - Analysts suggest that while current pressures exist, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive as long as the Federal Reserve maintains its current interest rate path [3]. Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from a long-term supply-demand imbalance, driven by increased capital expenditure and strategic resource reserves amid global manufacturing investment growth [4]. - Specific segments such as rare earths, lithium, and copper are highlighted for their growth potential due to favorable market conditions and technological advancements [3][4]. Investment Strategy - A diversified approach to investing in the non-ferrous metals sector is recommended, utilizing the non-ferrous metal sector ETF (159876) to mitigate risks associated with individual metal investments [6].

Core Viewpoint - The easing of US-China trade tensions and progress in the Russia-Ukraine situation have led to a decline in gold prices, which fell below $4,300 per ounce, impacting the A-share market and causing significant losses in gold stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold stocks led the decline in the A-share market, with the ETF tracking leading non-ferrous metal companies dropping 2.3% [1]. - Major gold companies such as Western Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold experienced declines exceeding 9% and 7%, respectively [1]. - Conversely, companies like Chuangjiang New Material and Yahua Group saw gains of over 6% and 1%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - A video call between US and Chinese trade representatives on October 18 indicated a willingness to resume trade negotiations, contributing to the easing of market tensions [3]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed readiness to participate in a meeting with US President Trump and Russian President Putin, signaling potential diplomatic progress [3]. Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - Despite the recent drop, Bank of America noted that gold assets still represent a low percentage of global investment portfolios, at 2.3% for institutions and 0.5% for private clients, indicating a lack of overcrowding in the market [3]. - The World Gold Council reported that retail gold investment accounts for less than 2% of global assets, and central bank gold reserves are below 30% of total foreign reserves, both far from historical highs [3]. Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals Outlook - Analysts suggest focusing on the entire non-ferrous metals sector rather than solely on gold, as sectors like rare earths, lithium, and copper show promising growth potential [3][4]. - Rare earth companies are expected to report significant profit increases, with North Rare Earth projecting a net profit growth of 272.54%-287.34% for Q3 [3]. - In lithium, advancements in solid-state battery technology are anticipated to boost demand, with leading companies maintaining a self-sufficiency rate of over 50% in lithium salt production [4]. - Copper prices are expected to rise due to supply disruptions, particularly from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which is crucial for energy transition and new production capabilities [4]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metals sector is viewed as a key player in the current commodity bull market, driven by long-term capital expenditure cycles and increasing demand for strategic metal resources [4][6]. - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) offers a diversified investment approach, tracking an index with significant weightings in copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, thus reducing risk compared to investing in a single metal [6].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a worsening labor market and hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts this month, despite government shutdown impacts on economic assessments [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October reached 97.3% according to CME FedWatch [1] - Powell's remarks are seen as reinforcing expectations for further rate cuts, which could lead to increased demand for physical assets like metals due to currency devaluation [1] Group 2: Price Movements in Minor Metals - Prices of certain minor metals have surged, with cobalt exceeding 350,000 yuan/ton, nearly doubling since the end of last year; tungsten prices reached 266,000 yuan/ton, also nearly doubling this year [2] - Molybdenum and tin prices have shown significant increases, with molybdenum at 4,380 yuan/ton (over 21% increase) and tin contracts up over 10% this year [2] - The demand for minor metals is driven by the rapid growth of new industries such as renewable energy and aerospace, particularly the increasing need for cobalt in lithium battery production [2] Group 3: Strategic Minor Metals and Investment Opportunities - Strategic minor metals are expected to see a revaluation as "quasi-safe-haven" assets due to their scarcity and essential strategic uses [2] - The market for minor metals is influenced by limited global reserves and concentrated production locations, making prices sensitive to geopolitical and production disruptions [2] Group 4: Performance of Key Companies in the Minor Metals Sector - Notable companies in the minor metals sector have shown significant stock price increases, with North Rare Earth up 168%, and Xiamen Tungsten up 72.98% year-to-date [3] - The performance of the non-ferrous metal sector is reflected in the strong inflows into the non-ferrous metal ETF, which has seen net subscriptions of 72 million units recently [3] Group 5: Future Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - Non-ferrous metals are positioned as key players in the current commodity bull market, driven by long-term capital expenditure cycles and rising global manufacturing investment [4] - The demand for non-ferrous metals is expected to continue increasing due to the need for strategic metal resources amid a backdrop of economic recovery expectations in China [4] - Analysts predict that industrial non-ferrous metals, minor metals, and gold will be core components of the upcoming market trends over the next one to two years [4] Group 6: Investment Strategies in Non-Ferrous Metals - A diversified investment approach through ETFs tracking the non-ferrous metal index can help mitigate risks associated with investing in individual metal sectors [6] - The non-ferrous metal ETF includes significant weights in copper (27.6%), gold (14.5%), aluminum (13.1%), rare earths (10.4%), and lithium (8.4%), providing broad exposure to the sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market with over 17.5 billion in main capital inflows, particularly highlighted by Northern Rare Earth's strong performance in A-shares [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant capital inflows, with Northern Rare Earth topping the A-share capital absorption list [1] - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) experienced a price surge of over 4.2%, closing up 3.45%, and achieving a new listing high with a total trading volume of 1.25 billion [1] - The ETF recorded a net subscription of 33 million units in a single day, accumulating 258 million in the last three days and 321 million over the past 20 days [1] Group 2: Price Movements and Regulations - On October 10, Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announced price increases, coinciding with new export control regulations from the Ministry of Commerce on rare earth-related items and technologies [2][3] - The new regulations expand the scope of export controls to include rare earth secondary resource recovery technologies, covering the entire rare earth industry chain and impacting sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, 55 out of 60 companies in the China Non-Ferrous Metal Index reported profits, with over 91% profitability [6] - Northern Rare Earth's net profit surged by 1951%, leading the sector, while Guocheng Mining also saw a significant increase of 1111% [6][7] Group 4: Industry Outlook - Analysts suggest that the non-ferrous metal sector is positioned for a long-term upward price cycle due to capital expenditure trends and increasing demand for strategic metal resources amid global manufacturing investment growth [8] - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) provides diversified exposure across various metals, including copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, which helps mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors [8]