《求是》杂志2026年第一期特约评论员文章中，这句话的分量足以让所有房地产的从业者都振奋，比上周财政部官宣增值税减免还让人兴奋。 毕竟这是从官方层面首次如此明确的指出房地产政策实施问题。 点击【樱桃大房子】关注并 "政策要一次性给足，不能采取添油战术！" 其实我们都知道房地产救市为何屡次市场都不买账。 我在之前的文章中也经常呼吁希望救市力度可以更大一些，而不是挤牙膏式的，没作用就算了，很多时候起到的还是副作用。 关于这一点，社会上也早就有共识了，大家甚至对房地产救市完全不抱希望。 但这一次《求是》杂志的发言让人看到了希望。 《求是》杂志的权威性大家都应该懂的，大家可以理解为高层对于房地产的定位已经出现了重大转向。 2026年，真的要下重药，下猛药了！ 我们再来看看这一篇文章，标题就很直白： 《改善和稳定房地产市场预期》 其中谈到3点，可以说是完全扭转了目前舆论对于房地产的偏见，以正视听。 第一，房地产的金融属性得到官方背书。 "房地产带有显著的金融资产属性，关联性强、涉及面广、社会关注度高，加强预期管理对稳定房地产市场具有特殊重要性。" 近两年来，由于房价不断下行，居民财富缩水，以至于社会上出现了一种声音，说 ...

Group 1 - The first city to relax housing purchase restrictions is Beijing, which is unexpected as Guangzhou has historically led such initiatives [2][4] - The political and economic significance of who initiates these changes is substantial, with Beijing's actions potentially signaling economic distress [4][5] - Recent policy changes include a reduction in down payment requirements for second homes and adjustments to mortgage rates, which are seen as beneficial for homebuyers [7][8] Group 2 - The policy is perceived as favorable for ordinary people, but its impact may be limited as many potential buyers lack confidence and financial resources [9][11] - The market is expected to see a 10% increase due to these favorable policies, although significant price drops have occurred in certain areas [10][11] - The approach to policy changes reflects a gradual and cautious strategy, avoiding drastic measures that could lead to market instability [15][18] Group 3 - The relaxation of restrictions is part of a broader trend where different cities implement tailored policies based on local market conditions [21][18] - The overall market dynamics indicate that buyers are increasingly selective, favoring high-quality areas over less desirable ones [9][11] - The long-term implications of these policies suggest a shift in the housing market, with potential benefits for those with stable cash flow and a need for housing [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has been in a long-term adjustment since the second half of 2021, with average national housing prices dropping over 30%, and certain areas experiencing declines exceeding 60% [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Housing prices in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen have also begun to adjust in 2023, following declines in second and third-tier cities [1] - Various real estate stimulus policies have been introduced since 2024, including the lifting of purchase restrictions in most cities and reductions in mortgage rates and down payment ratios to historical lows [3] Group 2: Investment Outlook - Current speculation in the housing market is likely to result in investors becoming "trapped" in the future, while those who refrain from buying may emerge as "winners" [6] - There remains significant adjustment space in housing prices, with price-to-income ratios in second and third-tier cities reaching 20-25 and over 40 in first-tier cities, indicating a disconnect between housing prices and local income levels [6][10] - The oversupply of housing is evident, with 600 million units available, enough to accommodate 3 billion people, while urbanization is nearing its peak and demographic trends indicate a decline in housing demand [9] - Current high housing prices are unsustainable as residents' incomes are not keeping pace, leading to a likelihood of further price adjustments [10] - The previous "profitability" of real estate investments has diminished, with many speculators either selling off properties or holding cash, increasing downward pressure on prices [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is reportedly considering an unprecedented real estate stimulus plan, which includes nationwide mortgage subsidies for new home buyers, increased income tax refunds for mortgage borrowers, and reduced housing transaction costs [1][4]. Group 1: Government Measures - The proposed measures include mortgage subsidies and tax refunds aimed at alleviating the financial burden on new home buyers [1]. - The government is expected to provide direct financial assistance to help cover part of the monthly mortgage payments for new home purchases [1]. - Other potential measures being discussed include increasing the income tax refund limits for mortgage borrowers and lowering transaction costs associated with housing purchases [1]. Group 2: Market Reaction - A significant positive reaction was observed in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, with real estate stocks experiencing a sharp rise following the news [1]. - The real estate sector had previously faced a 12-day decline, indicating that market participants are sensitive to the news of potential government intervention [3]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that real estate development investment in China fell by 14.7% year-on-year to 73,563 billion yuan in the first ten months of the year, with residential development investment down by 13.8% to 56,595 billion yuan [4][6]. - In October, new residential prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.45%, marking the largest month-on-month decline in a year, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.66%, the largest drop in 13 months [6]. Group 4: Societal Implications - The real estate market's downturn has broader implications for social stability, as housing assets account for nearly 70% of urban residents' family wealth in China [10]. - The decline in housing prices not only affects macroeconomic indicators but also leads to significant personal financial distress for families, impacting consumer spending [11]. - The government’s intervention is seen as crucial to prevent a potential crisis that could lead to widespread economic repercussions, including increased poverty and social instability [14].

Core Insights - The real estate market continues to experience a downward trend into 2025, with a significant increase in second-hand housing listings, surpassing 7.3 million units by September 2025, and a year-on-year price drop of 7.38% in major cities [1][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - The number of second-hand housing listings has surged, particularly in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, each exceeding 140,000 listings [1][3] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,381 yuan per square meter in September, marking a continuous decline for 41 months [1] Group 2: Government Policies - Various stimulus policies have been introduced to revive the real estate market, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions in most cities and a reduction in mortgage rates to historical lows [3] - Tax reductions on transaction fees for homebuyers have also been implemented, but the effectiveness of these measures remains limited [3] Group 3: Economic Implications - A prolonged downturn in the real estate market could lead to reduced land sales for local governments, negatively impacting fiscal revenues and essential public services [5] - The low performance of the real estate sector is expected to affect over 60 related industries, including construction materials and home furnishings, potentially leading to layoffs and business closures [5] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - The increasing number of households opting for mortgage defaults is concerning, with over 300,000 new defaults recorded in the first half of 2025, a 40% increase year-on-year [9] - The decline in property values is expected to lead to a significant reduction in consumer spending, as real estate constitutes 77% of household assets [11] Group 5: Industry Restructuring - The real estate sector may face a major restructuring in 2026, with weaker private developers at risk of bankruptcy or acquisition by state-owned enterprises due to financial distress [12] - The potential for unfinished projects could further undermine confidence in the real estate market [12]

Core Insights - The real estate market continues to experience a downward trend into 2025, with a significant increase in second-hand housing listings, surpassing 7.3 million units by September 2025, and a year-on-year price drop of 7.38% in major cities [1][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - The number of second-hand housing listings has surged, particularly in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, each exceeding 140,000 units [1][3] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,381 yuan per square meter in September, marking a continuous decline for 41 months [1] Group 2: Policy Responses - Various stimulus policies have been introduced to revive the real estate market, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions in most cities and reductions in mortgage rates to historical lows [3] - Tax reductions on transaction fees for homebuyers have also been implemented, but the effectiveness of these measures remains limited [3] Group 3: Challenges Ahead - A potential decline in local government revenue due to reduced land sales could impact infrastructure investment, debt repayment, and social welfare spending [5] - The increasing number of second-hand homes may lead to greater difficulty in selling properties, particularly if the market does not recover [7] - The trend of homeowners defaulting on mortgages is rising, with over 300,000 new defaults in the first half of 2025, driven by falling property values and reduced household incomes [9] - A significant portion of household wealth is tied up in real estate, with properties accounting for 77% of total household assets, leading to reduced consumer spending as asset values decline [11] - The real estate sector may face a major shakeout in 2026, with weaker developers at risk of bankruptcy or restructuring, potentially leading to unfinished projects and further eroding market confidence [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a paradox where prices are declining significantly while government and financial institutions are continuously implementing measures to stimulate the market, yet these efforts have not yielded the expected results [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The average decline in housing prices across the country has exceeded 30% [1]. - The government's measures include the removal of purchase restrictions in most areas and lowering mortgage rates and down payment ratios to historical lows [1]. - Despite these efforts, the anticipated recovery in the real estate market has not materialized [1]. Group 2: Challenges Ahead - Local governments are facing a significant drop in land transfer revenue, which fell to 2.85 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 19.7% [5]. - Real estate companies are under pressure to sell off inventory, with a looming debt maturity peak of about 1.2 trillion yuan from late 2025 to 2026, raising concerns about potential bankruptcies [5][6]. - The non-performing loan rate for personal housing loans reached 0.7% in Q2 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the end of 2024 [6]. - The non-performing loan rate for real estate development loans was as high as 6.3% in the first half of 2025, up 1.5 percentage points from the beginning of the year [6]. Group 3: Price Adjustments and Market Dynamics - The long-term downward trend in housing prices is evident, with examples such as a property purchased for 4 million yuan in 2021 now valued at 2.56 million yuan [8]. - There is a trend of price declines in second and third-tier cities slowing down, while first-tier cities are beginning to experience similar declines [8]. - If the market does not stabilize, downward pressure on housing prices is expected to increase, aligning prices with local income levels and returning to their fundamental residential attributes [8].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a paradox where property prices are declining significantly while various government policies aimed at stimulating the market are failing to yield satisfactory results [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The average national property price has dropped by over 30%, with a notable decline in most cities except for core areas in first-tier cities [1]. - The downward trend in property prices is expected to continue, with increasing pressure linked to local residents' income and the return to housing as a necessity [7]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Local government revenue from land sales is projected to decline, with a forecast of 2.85 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of approximately 19.7% [3]. - Real estate companies are facing increasing difficulties, with a looming debt maturity peak of about 1.2 trillion yuan from late 2025 to 2026, exacerbated by challenges in selling properties and recovering funds [4]. - The financial risks in the real estate sector are rising, with the non-performing loan rate for personal housing loans reaching 0.7% in Q2 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the end of 2024 [5]. Group 3: Recommendations for Stakeholders - For families looking to upgrade their homes, it may be wise to delay purchases until prices stabilize, potentially leading to lower costs [7]. - First-time homebuyers are advised to consider renting instead of buying, as current rental options may be more financially viable [7]. - Existing homeowners facing high mortgage pressures should negotiate with banks for lower interest rates to alleviate monthly payment burdens [9]. - Investors are cautioned against entering the property market at this time, with suggestions to diversify investments into fixed-income products, low-risk financial products, and moderate-risk funds to maximize returns while minimizing risks [9].

Core Viewpoint - The new round of real estate rescue policies in China, initiated in September 2025, aims to stabilize the market amid severe challenges, reflecting a strong commitment from policymakers to address the industry's difficulties and the broader macroeconomic context [1][3][15]. Group 1: Urgency of Policy Implementation - The real estate market is under significant pressure, with a projected decline in investment growth of around 7% in 2025, despite ongoing policy efforts [2][3]. - High inventory levels, substantial homebuyer burden, and persistent credit risks for some developers are major constraints hindering market recovery [2][3]. - In major cities like Beijing, recent policy changes have led to a surge in demand for certain property types, but the overall market remains challenged, particularly for entry-level housing [2][3]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Implications - The real estate sector contributes approximately 20% to China's GDP and is crucial for employment, making its downturn a significant concern for the overall economy [3][15]. - A continued decline in the real estate market could adversely affect consumer spending, with retail sales growth projected at 4-5% in 2025, facing uncertainty if the housing market remains weak [3][15]. Group 3: Policy Features and Innovations - The new policies represent a shift from "single-point breakthroughs" to a "systematic collaboration" approach, focusing on demand stimulation, supply optimization, and financial coordination [6][9]. - Demand-side measures include differentiated policies in major cities, allowing for more targeted interventions that avoid overheating the market while addressing specific needs [6][9]. - Financial innovations include enhanced public housing fund policies and the removal of interest rate differentials for first and second homes, significantly reducing monthly repayment burdens for buyers [7][9]. Group 4: Long-term Strategic Reforms - The current policies emphasize both "revitalizing existing stock" and "improving quality," marking a departure from solely stimulating demand [9][10]. - Local governments are supported through special bonds to acquire existing properties for affordable housing, while new construction standards are being promoted to enhance quality [9][10]. - This dual approach aims to address inventory issues while fostering a transition towards higher quality developments in the real estate sector [9][10]. Group 5: Market Response and Challenges - Initial market reactions to the policies have shown promise, with new home purchases in certain areas increasing by over 50%, indicating a potential recovery during the traditional sales peak [10][11]. - However, long-term challenges persist, particularly in lower-tier cities facing high inventory and population outflows, which may delay recovery despite policy support [11][12]. - The complexity of resolving developer credit risks remains a significant hurdle, with over 500 billion yuan in debts maturing in 2025, impacting overall market confidence [11][12]. Group 6: Balancing Act in Policy Implementation - Policymakers must balance short-term stimulus with long-term transformation, ensuring that market interventions do not hinder the transition to a new housing model [12][15]. - There is a need to manage market vitality alongside risk prevention, particularly regarding rising non-performing loans in the housing sector [12][15]. - Regional policy disparities must be addressed to prevent irrational market behaviors in lower-tier cities as a result of policies in major urban centers [12][15].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market's fluctuations significantly impact the economy and the financial stability of households, with a potential crisis leading to widespread economic repercussions [1] Group 1: Developer Financial Health - The funding chain for developers is under severe strain, with 23 listed real estate companies delisting in 2023, including those with over 100 billion in sales [3] - The bad loan rate for real estate loans at a bank in Chongqing surged by 3470% over seven years, indicating a critical risk for developers unable to sell properties [3] - The debt default balance for real estate companies in 2024 is projected at 855.5 billion, accounting for 79% of the total industry defaults [3] Group 2: Housing Market Dynamics - In first-tier cities, second-hand housing prices stabilized in late 2022, while third-tier cities continue to see price declines, creating a challenging environment for banks' risk management [4] - A 10% drop in housing prices could lead to a wealth evaporation of tens of trillions for households, as 60% of urban residents' assets are tied up in real estate [4] - The inventory cycle for residential properties has extended to four years, with a significant funding gap of 5.3 trillion for purchasing existing homes [4] Group 3: Economic Impact - The construction, home appliance, and renovation industries have shown signs of fatigue, with new home sales directly affecting cement production, which fell by 18% [5] - Consumer spending is likely to decline as household assets shrink, contributing to a slowdown in retail sales growth [5] - The government is implementing various policies to stabilize the market, including lowering mortgage rates to a historical low of 3.09% and increasing the proportion of existing home sales to 26.5% [6][5] Group 4: Policy Responses - Recent policy measures include the cancellation of sales restrictions in Chongqing and the introduction of housing vouchers in Shandong, indicating a proactive approach to mitigate market risks [6] - The central bank has injected 2.6 trillion into the economy through white list loans, reflecting an urgent need to stabilize the housing market [6]