UNFX知识分享：影响黄金市场行情的最大因素是美元走势和货币政策，尤其是美联储的利率政策。以 下是具体原因和分析： 美元指数的影响： 美元指数（DXY）是衡量美元对一篮子主要货币汇率的指标。美元指数的变化直接影响黄金价格。 例如，当美元指数上涨时，黄金价格往往承压；当美元指数下跌时，黄金价格往往上涨。 利率变化： 加息：当美联储加息时，持有黄金的机会成本增加（因为黄金不产生利息），投资者可能转向收益更高 的资产（如债券），导致黄金价格下跌。 降息：当美联储降息时，黄金的吸引力增强，价格往往上涨。 黄金与美元的负相关关系： 黄金以美元计价，美元走强时，黄金价格通常下跌，因为持有黄金的成本增加。 美元走弱时，黄金价格通常上涨，因为持有黄金的成本降低。 量化宽松（QE）： 当美联储实施量化宽松政策（如印钞、购债）时，市场流动性增加，通胀预期上升，黄金作为抗通胀资 产，价格往往上涨。 货币政策预期： 市场对美联储政策的预期（如加息或降息的预期）也会影响黄金价格。例如，如果市场预期美联储将加 息，黄金价格可能提前下跌。 经济增长与衰退： 经济强劲时，投资者可能更倾向于风险资产（如股票），黄金需求下降，价格可能下跌。 经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continuous increase in China's gold reserves by the central bank, analyzing the underlying logic, factors influencing gold prices, and the outlook for gold prices in the coming years [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Continuous Increase in Gold Reserves - The central bank's continuous increase in gold reserves signals an optimization of reserve structure, as gold reserves account for only 7% of foreign exchange reserves, significantly lower than the global average of 15% [4]. - It supports the internationalization of the Renminbi, as gold enhances the credibility of sovereign currency and underpins the cross-border payment system (CIPS) covering 109 countries [4]. - The move is a strategic response to complex international situations, including fluctuating US-China tariffs and escalating geopolitical risks, prompting the central bank to prepare for safe-haven assets [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Price Trends - The purchasing trends of central banks significantly impact gold prices, with global central bank purchases reaching 1,045 tons in 2024, supporting a rising price trend [7]. - The strength of the US dollar affects gold prices inversely; a weaker dollar typically leads to higher gold prices, as seen with the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in June 2025 [7]. - Geopolitical risks, such as trade tensions and conflicts, drive gold prices up during periods of increased uncertainty [7]. - Inflation and real interest rates also play a crucial role; rising inflation enhances gold's appeal as an anti-inflation asset [7]. - Technical factors, including COMEX gold futures positions and ETF fund flows, influence gold price movements [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Current gold prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations, with resistance at $3,500 per ounce and support between $2,900 and $3,200 per ounce [7]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices may reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by supply shortages, ongoing central bank purchases, and geopolitical risk premiums [8]. - The trend towards de-dollarization is expected to support higher gold prices, as the global monetary system becomes more diversified, enhancing the roles of gold, the euro, the Renminbi, and emerging market currencies [8].