Core Viewpoint - The current fluctuations in gold prices are significantly influenced by Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical situations, and central bank gold purchasing behaviors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a key factor affecting gold prices. Recent poor ADP employment data did not lead to a clear indication of rate cuts from Powell, diminishing the likelihood of a July cut and leaving a 75% probability for September [2]. - Rising U.S. Treasury yields have made government bonds more attractive to investors, reducing the appeal of gold [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Situations - Geopolitical tensions significantly impact the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. A calming situation in the Middle East has led to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds, causing gold prices to drop [2]. - However, the complexity of geopolitical issues suggests that any easing may be temporary, and renewed conflicts could quickly increase demand for gold [2]. Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchasing Behavior - The trend of global central banks purchasing gold affects supply, demand, and market confidence. According to the World Gold Council, nearly 43% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold reserves [3]. - Recent data indicates zero growth in China's gold reserves for May, and India's plans to increase import duties may lead to market panic among retail investors [3]. Group 4: Gold Price Outlook - In the short term, gold prices are under pressure due to unclear Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, a calming geopolitical landscape with uncertainties, and changing central bank purchasing behaviors [4]. - Long-term prospects for gold remain strong due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and complex economic conditions, with central banks continuing to accumulate gold, providing some support for prices [4].