1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oil prices are oscillating. The easing of trade concerns and the escalation of geopolitical situations have led to a recent rebound in oil prices. However, in the long - term, due to the loose supply - demand pattern of crude oil, the long - term oil price will remain weak, and the short - term rebound height may be limited. For both crude oil and fuel oil, the current operation strategy is to wait and see [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Market - **Market Influencing Factors**: The first round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, is expected to ease trade concerns and boost the oil market. Geopolitically, the cancellation of the Trump - Putin meeting and US sanctions on Russian oil producers may disrupt the global crude oil supply chain. In terms of supply and demand, OPEC+ has reached a principle agreement to increase production slightly in November, while global crude oil consumption has gradually declined since September, with a drop of 1 - 3 million barrels per day in the off - season compared to the peak season [3] - **Price and Spread Data**: SC crude oil closed at 468.9 yuan/barrel, up 0.86%; WTI crude oil was at 61.44 dollars/barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil was at 64.92 dollars/barrel, unchanged. There are also various spread data such as SC - WTI, SC - Brent, etc. [3] - **Spot Price**: Oman crude oil was at 68.1 dollars/barrel, up 6.87%; Russian ESPO was at 60.63 dollars/barrel, up 3.16%; Brent Dtd was at 62.39 dollars/barrel, up 5.75% [4] - **Fundamental Data**: US EIA data shows that crude oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.23% to 422,824 thousand barrels; gasoline inventory decreased by 0.98% to 216,679 thousand barrels; distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.26% to 117,030 thousand barrels; US production decreased by 0.05% to 13,629 thousand barrels per day [4] 3.2 Fuel Oil Market - **Inventory and Trade Data**: As of the week ending October 22, Singapore's residue fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.036 million barrels or 8.1% to 23.027 million barrels (3.63 million tons). In September 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports were 543,400 tons, up 10.98% month - on - month and down 4.11% year - on - year; exports were 2.2363 million tons, up 36.09% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative exports of China's bonded marine fuel oil were 15.322 million tons, up 1.53% year - on - year [3] - **Market Situation**: For high - sulfur fuel oil, consumption from power generation terminals will gradually decline after the end of the power demand peak season in the Northern Hemisphere. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the Asian market structure is weakening, and the arbitrage arrival volume in Singapore in October is expected to increase. The fuel oil market generally follows the short - term sharp rebound of international oil prices [3] - **Price and Spread Data**: FU high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,842 yuan/ton, up 1.00%; LU low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,257 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. There are also various spread data such as FU - SC, LU - SC, LU - FU, etc. [3] - **Spot Price**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was at 395 dollars/ton, up 2.33%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was at 442.5 dollars/ton, up 1.36% [4] - **Fundamental Data**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 1.34% to 23,699 thousand barrels. The exchange warehouse receipts of FU fuel oil increased by 26.76% to 37,890 [4] 3.3 Macro Data - The US dollar index was at 98.9417, up 0.01%; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was at 4.02%, up 0.25%; the RMB/US dollar exchange rate was 7.2545, unchanged; the Baltic BDI index was at 1,991, down 3.21% [4]

Market Overview - The investment market has four levels: preserving capital, controlling risk, earning returns, and achieving long-term stable profits [1] - The current market sentiment shows a rise in risk appetite, negatively impacting the safe-haven appeal of precious metals like gold [1] Gold Market Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, following significant sell-off pressure from the previous day, with the market closely monitoring this trend [1] - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a mild bull flattening, with yields slightly retreating, injecting cautious optimism into the fixed income sector [1] - The U.S. dollar has shown slight resilience amidst improving risk sentiment, while gold's sharp decline highlights the vulnerability of safe-haven assets under current market signals [1] - The economic calendar is sparse due to government shutdown concerns, with only minor Treasury auctions and repurchase operations supporting liquidity [1] Technical Analysis - Key support levels for gold are around the 4000 mark, which is near the 20-day moving average on the daily chart and the 5-week moving average on the weekly chart [3] - A drop below 4000 could trigger a mid-term adjustment trend, while holding above this level may indicate continued bullish sentiment [3] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds, with resistance levels at 4160-4180 and support at 4120-4100 [3] Oil Market Analysis Fundamental Analysis - WTI crude oil prices are fluctuating around $57.55, with market focus shifting towards easing trade concerns and improving inventory changes [4] - Recent signals from the U.S. government indicate a reduction in trade tensions, which has positively influenced market sentiment towards oil [4] - The oil market is expected to remain in a range-bound pattern unless new developments in trade concerns arise [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that oil prices have broken below the lower boundary of a trading range, suggesting a downward trend [5] - The MACD indicator shows bearish momentum, indicating that the mid-term outlook for oil is likely to be a downward trend [5] - Short-term trading strategy recommends focusing on long positions during pullbacks, with resistance at 61.5-62.5 and support at 58.5-57.5 [5]

Fundamental Analysis - The spot silver (XAG/USD) continued its pullback on October 17, dropping to $53.65 per ounce, down from the historical high of $54.86 reached the previous day, indicating profit-taking pressure in the short term [1] - Despite the short-term pullback, overall market sentiment remains defensive, supporting silver's strong operational range [1] - As holiday demand diminishes, market volatility is expected to ease, with a return to normal market rhythms anticipated next week [1] - The post-holiday arbitrage and narrowing premiums are likely to stabilize silver prices, while investors begin to take profits and institutional traders rebalance positions [1] - Ongoing safe-haven demand and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to support the medium-term outlook for silver [1] Technical Analysis - The daily chart for silver shows signs of adjustment after forming a temporary top around $54.80, with short-term support at the $53.50 level, which is critical for the recent upward trend [2] - If the price breaks below this support, it may further test the $52.80 level; conversely, if it stabilizes above $54, it could challenge the $55 mark [2] - Technical indicators such as MACD are showing a bearish crossover at high levels, indicating a weakening short-term momentum, while RSI has retreated from the overbought zone to around 65, suggesting a moderate consolidation phase [2] - The silver market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with limited downside potential due to safe-haven demand and rate cut expectations, although post-holiday demand decline and technical pullback pressures may increase short-term volatility [2] - The overall outlook for silver in Q4 is expected to be characterized by high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the breakout of the $53 support and $55 resistance levels [2] Market Quotes - As of the latest data, spot gold is quoted around $4370 per ounce, while spot silver is at $54.31 per ounce [4] Trend Judgment - The current silver market is characterized by a price consolidation trend, suggesting strategies for support long positions and resistance short positions [7] - The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend, which may influence silver pricing [7] - Technical indicators suggest that the K-line is operating near the lower boundary, with a support level at $51.30 [7] - MACD indicators are showing upward momentum, but market activity is decreasing, indicating a need for cautious trading and potential low-position long and high-position short strategies [7]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing increased risk aversion due to rising trade concerns and geopolitical tensions, leading to a decline in the USD/JPY exchange rate below 151.50, with a focus on whether the 151.20 support level will hold [1] - Asian countries have announced special port fees on US vessels and tightened export controls, exacerbating fears of a deteriorating global trade environment, while President Trump threatens to impose tariffs up to 100% on goods from Asian countries [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its third week, with a temporary funding bill pushed by Republicans failing to pass, contributing to ongoing fiscal deadlock [1] Group 2 - The recent dissolution of the ruling coalition in Japan has created political uncertainty, leading to expectations that the Bank of Japan may delay its planned interest rate hikes, which could limit the appreciation of the yen [2] - Technical analysis indicates that after a strong upward trend, the USD/JPY exchange rate has paused, with a long bearish candle suggesting a potential reversal, which may lead to a rebound in the yen [3] - Key observation points for the USD/JPY exchange rate include 152.10 as a significant level, with support at 151.00, which is the high from August 1 and the low of the recent bearish candle [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices have significantly retraced after reaching a historical high of $3578, driven by reduced safe-haven demand and a slight strengthening of the dollar, leading to profit-taking [1] - The market is focused on upcoming non-farm payroll data, which may determine whether gold can break through the $3600 level again [1] - The U.S. labor market slowdown provides medium-term support for gold, with the latest JOLTS job openings falling to 7.18 million, a near one-year low, reinforcing expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts in September [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold has retraced to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (around $3500), which coincides with the 100-day moving average, forming a key support area [4] - If gold falls below $3500, it may further decline to the $3440 level, potentially signaling a bearish trend if that level is breached [4] - Conversely, resistance is seen at $3560, and if gold breaks and stabilizes above the $3578 high, it may accelerate towards the $3600 target [5] Group 3 - President Trump has announced intentions to seek a Supreme Court ruling to overturn a federal appeals court decision regarding tariffs, which adds market uncertainty and may support gold demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is currently influenced by a combination of strong U.S. labor market data and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate policies, leading to a high volatility environment for silver prices [3]. Group 1: Silver Price Movement - As of July 11, 2025, the spot silver price is trading at $37.43 per ounce, with a daily range between $36.87 and $37.48 [1][2]. - The opening price for silver today was $36.99 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data has shown strong performance, with initial jobless claims dropping to 227,000, indicating a robust labor market [3]. - The expectation for an immediate interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has decreased significantly due to these labor market indicators [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Silver is currently experiencing dual influences: inflows of safe-haven funds and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which are limiting bullish positions in silver [3]. - Trade tensions, particularly Trump's new tariff threats, including a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, are adding to economic uncertainty and potential inflation concerns [3]. Group 4: Trading Strategy - A bullish trading strategy is suggested, with a focus on maintaining long positions if silver stabilizes around the $36.8 level and breaks above $37.2, targeting $37.5 [4].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report on the daily situation of Shanghai Silver futures on June 4, 2025, with a focus on price, trading volume,持仓量, economic data, and tariff policies [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The risk and uncertainty of the US economy are rising, and the futures price may fluctuate strongly in the near future. Attention should be paid to global trade and geopolitical negotiations [3] Group 4: Market Data - The opening price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8,475 yuan/kg, the lowest price was 8,451 yuan/kg, the highest price was 8,498 yuan/kg, and the closing price was 8,463 yuan/kg [3] - The trading volume was 449,000 lots, and the 持仓量 was 380,000 lots, an increase of 9,481 lots from the previous trading day [3] Group 5: US Economic Data - The number of JOLTS job openings in the US in April was 7.39 million, higher than the previous value of 7.2 million and the expected 7.1 million [3] - The ADP employment in the US in May increased by 37,000, with an expected increase of 110,000 and a previous increase of 62,000 [3] Group 6: Tariff Policy - Trump's new round of steel and aluminum tariff policy officially took effect on Wednesday, raising the tax rate from 25% to 50%, pushing the "trade worry sentiment" to the forefront of the market again [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with spot gold prices around $3355 per ounce, indicating underlying tensions despite a seemingly calm surface [1] - Strong performance in the U.S. job market is counterbalancing global trade tensions, while the OECD's latest warnings introduce new variables into the market [1] - Upcoming key data releases, particularly the ADP employment data and the non-farm payroll report, are expected to provide insights into Federal Reserve policy direction, which will influence gold market investment logic [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold is anticipated to enter a period of volatility, with short-term resistance at $3380 and support at $3345, indicating a potential range-bound trading environment [3] - The 30-minute moving average is showing signs of a downward trend, suggesting a possible adjustment if a bearish crossover occurs [3] - The trading strategy recommends focusing on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with key levels to watch being $3380-$3390 for resistance and $3345-$3335 for support [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have slightly declined due to a more balanced supply-demand scenario and concerns over the global economic outlook, with Brent crude at $65.58 per barrel and WTI at $63.32 per barrel [4] - Recent price drops follow a two-week high, influenced by factors such as wildfires in Canada disrupting oil production and geopolitical tensions affecting supply [4] - The oil market is currently influenced by competing forces, including geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production increases, leading to a potential high-level consolidation until clearer policy directions emerge [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term trend for oil prices is downward, with a potential test of the $50 mark after forming a bearish flag pattern [5] - Short-term movements are characterized by fluctuations around the moving average system, indicating a likely upward trend in the near term [5] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with resistance levels at $64.5-$65.0 and support levels at $62.0-$61.5 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have declined from record highs due to easing trade concerns, currently trading below $3300, with significant economic data expected to influence short-term direction [3][4]. Market Sentiment - Gold, as a non-yielding safe-haven asset, has seen a strong performance this year, rising nearly $700 and reaching historical highs multiple times. However, optimism regarding global trade relations has boosted market risk appetite, leading to a shift of funds from gold to riskier assets, which is a primary psychological factor pressuring gold prices [4][6]. - If market risk appetite continues to improve and global trade relations further ease, alongside a strengthening dollar, gold prices may face greater downward pressure [4][6]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices need to effectively break below the $3265-$3260 range to confirm a larger downward correction. If this level is breached, prices could quickly drop towards the $3225 50% retracement level, potentially targeting the $3200 mark. A drop below $3200 would suggest that gold may have peaked in the short term [4][6]. - The $3260 level has become a focal point for the market, and investors should closely monitor whether gold can touch or break this level. A significant breach would reinforce a bearish trend and could lead to deeper adjustments [6][7]. Trading Strategy - A conservative approach suggests waiting for a rebound near $3300 to enter short positions, targeting a break below $3260 to aim for $3230. More aggressive traders may consider entering short positions around the current price of $3287, with plans to add to positions on any rebounds [7][9].

Group 1 - Gold prices reached a historical high of $3500 per ounce before a slight pullback, driven by short-term technical overbought conditions, while trade concerns, geopolitical risks, and doubts about the Federal Reserve's independence continue to support safe-haven buying [1] - Market expectations for at least three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year are solidifying, keeping the dollar near a three-year low and enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge against currency depreciation [1] - The technical indicators suggest that gold is currently overbought, with the daily RSI above 70 and a significant divergence in the 4-hour MACD, indicating potential for a price correction [2] Group 2 - The domestic gold market in China has mirrored the extreme rise in international gold prices, with the highest domestic gold price reaching 836 yuan, making it challenging to capture profits without physical gold [6] - The support level for domestic gold is around 820 yuan, while the support for the Shanghai silver market is at 8050, indicating a cautious trading environment with limited opportunities for significant price movements [6][7] - Silver prices have not followed gold's upward trend significantly, remaining in a high-level consolidation phase, with short-term trading opportunities available but lacking strong momentum for a sustained rally [5][7]