晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 218 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、金融工程 1、期权市场（邢维洁） 标的走势 11 月 17 日至 11 月 21 日，沪指周中震荡下跌，较前一周跌幅为 3.90%，当周收于 3834.89， 成交量较前一周有所降低。深指小幅低开，周中震荡下跌，较前一周跌幅为 5.13%，当周收 于 12538.07，成交量与前一周基本持平。 50ETF 周初开于 3.182，周末收于 3.101，较前一周下跌 0.082，跌幅为 2.58%，成交额 104.59 亿。华泰柏瑞沪深 300ETF 周初开于 4.730，周末收于 4.564，较前一周下跌 0.177，跌 幅为 3.73%，成交额 211.19 亿。南方中证 500ETF 周初开于 7.334，周末收于 6.922，较前一 周下跌 0.416，跌幅为 5.67%，成交额 128.03 亿。 期权市场 时 间：2025 年 11 月 27 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡萍 何 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose with fluctuations during the week, while the Shenzhen Component Index opened slightly lower and fluctuated. The performance of different ETFs varied, with 50ETF and Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF showing certain increases, and Southern CSI 500ETF having a small increase. In the options market, the average daily trading volume and total open interest of various ETF options increased. Volatility decreased, with short - term volatility significantly dropping, and the implied volatility curve structure slightly shifting to the right. The market risk preference declined. Considering the current situation, the probability of implied volatility strengthening in the future is relatively high, and a volatility strategy of selling high is recommended [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Spot and Futures Market Review 3.1.1. Underlying Asset Market - From November 3rd to 7th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.08% compared to the previous week, closing at 3997.56 with lower trading volume. The Shenzhen Component Index opened slightly lower, fluctuated during the week, and closed at 13404.06 with lower trading volume. 50ETF opened at 3.153 and closed at 3.186, rising 0.82% with a turnover of 11.564 billion. Huatai - PineBridge CSI 300ETF opened at 4.752 and closed at 4.795, rising 0.82% with a turnover of 19.074 billion. Southern CSI 500ETF opened at 7.427 and closed at 7.440, rising 0.05% with a turnover of 7.169 billion [8]. 3.1.2. Index Futures Market - From November 3rd to 7th, all IH contracts of stock index futures closed up. Contract IH2511 rose 0.76%. All IF contracts closed up, with contract IF2511 rising 0.57%. All IC contracts closed down, with contract IC2511 falling 0.30% [9]. 3.2. Options Market Review 3.2.1. Trading and Open Interest - From November 3rd to 7th, the average daily trading volume and total open interest of 50ETF options increased. The average daily trading volume was 864,446 contracts, an increase of 31,600 contracts compared to the previous week. The total open interest was 1,530,207 contracts, an increase of 69,092 contracts from the previous weekend. The total open interest PCR was 0.97, up 0.07 from the previous weekend. For Huatai - PineBridge CSI 300ETF options, the average daily trading volume was 1,031,324 contracts, an increase of 43,523 contracts compared to the previous week. The total open interest was 1,376,297 contracts, an increase of 116,890 contracts from the previous weekend. The total open interest PCR was 1.12, up 0.09 from the previous weekend. For Southern CSI 500ETF options, the average daily trading volume was 1,513,130 contracts, an increase of 90,928 contracts compared to the previous week. The total open interest was 1,361,584 contracts, an increase of 40,101 contracts from the previous weekend. The total open interest PCR was 1.26, basically unchanged from the previous weekend [13][16][21]. 3.2.2. Volatility - **Historical Volatility**: As of November 7th, the 5 - day historical rolling volatility of 50ETF dropped to 9.69%, around the 25th percentile of the five - year historical level. The 5 - day, 10 - day, 20 - day, and 40 - day historical volatilities were 9.69%, 10.60%, 11.57%, and 11.90% respectively. The 5 - day historical rolling volatility of Huatai - PineBridge CSI 300ETF dropped to 12.63%, around the 50th percentile of the five - year historical level, with corresponding historical volatilities of 12.63%, 15.12%, 15.91%, and 16.82%. The 5 - day historical rolling volatility of Southern CSI 500ETF dropped to 18.52%, around the 50th percentile of the five - year historical level, with corresponding historical volatilities of 18.52%, 19.76%, 22.32%, and 22.34% [25][29][31]. - **Implied Volatility**: On November 7th, for each options variety's 2025 - 11 and 2025 - 12 contracts, the implied volatility of at - the - money contracts declined, while the implied volatility of out - of - the - money contracts remained at a relatively high level. The implied volatility curve structure slightly shifted to the right. For the 500ETF, which had a relatively large decline, the valuation of put contracts was relatively high, indicating a decline in market risk preference [34]. - **Comparison of Historical and Implied Volatility Trends**: Short - term volatility significantly declined. The volatility of 50ETF dropped below 10%, and the weekly volatility of 300ETF and 500ETF dropped from the 75th percentile to the 50th percentile of the historical level. Monthly volatility also declined further, and the implied volatility mainly decreased during the week. Currently, the implied volatility level is still lower than the historical volatility, and it is believed that the probability of implied volatility strengthening in the future is relatively high [41]. 3.3. Investment Recommendations - In terms of strategies, the weekly market first fell and then rose. Small - cap growth stocks declined more, while large - cap stocks were relatively stable and performed slightly better than small - cap stocks. The open interest PCR level showed different trends according to the rise and fall of the underlying assets, and the current level is around the historical median. Considering the implied volatility, the overall level has decreased. On the implied volatility curve, the volatility of at - the - money contracts decreased, but the implied volatility of out - of - the - money contracts remained high, indicating a decline in market risk preference. Given that the current implied volatility level is lower than the historical volatility, if the market fluctuates significantly, the volatility level may suddenly rise. Therefore, a volatility strategy of selling high is still recommended [4][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly market declined to varying degrees, with all three option underlying assets dropping by over 1%. The changes in the position PCR ratios showed divergence, with the position PCR of 50ETF and 300ETF continuing to fall, while the put contract position ratio of 500ETF increased. Considering the changes in the implied volatility curve structure, with the curve of 500ETF shifting to the left, indicating some cautious sentiment, it is believed that the current market risk preference level has decreased, and a cautious attitude towards small-cap growth stocks is recommended. This is relatively favorable for large-cap blue-chip underlying assets such as 50ETF and 300ETF [5][43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market Review 3.1.1 Underlying Asset Market - From July 28 to August 1, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated during the week, closing at 3559.95, with lower trading volume compared to the previous week. The Shenzhen Component Index fluctuated and declined during the week, with a decline of 1.58% compared to the previous week, closing at 10991.32, and lower trading volume compared to the previous week [2][8]. - 50ETF opened at 2.917 at the beginning of the week and closed at 2.876 at the end of the week, down 0.040 or 1.37% from the previous week, with a trading volume of 10.865 billion yuan. Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF opened at 4.203 at the beginning of the week and closed at 4.133 at the end of the week, down 0.070 or 1.67% from the previous week, with a trading volume of 17.173 billion yuan. Southern CSI 500ETF opened at 6.365 at the beginning of the week and closed at 6.287 at the end of the week, down 0.078 or 1.23% from the previous week, with a trading volume of 6.109 billion yuan [3][8]. 3.1.2 Futures Index Market - From July 28 to August 1, all contracts of the stock index futures IH closed down. Among them, contract IH2508 declined by -1.42%. All contracts of the stock index futures IF closed down. Among them, contract IF2508 declined by -1.93%. All contracts of the stock index futures IC closed down. Among them, contract IC2508 declined by -1.43% [9]. 3.2 Option Market Review 3.2.1 Trading and Position Holding Situation - From July 28 to August 1, the average daily trading volume of 50ETF options decreased compared to the previous week, while the total position increased. The average daily trading volume of 50ETF options for the week was 1,249,242 contracts, a decrease of 123,739 contracts from the previous week's average daily trading volume. The total position was 1,443,444 contracts, an increase of 202,752 contracts from the end of the previous week. The total position PCR was 0.84, a decrease of 0.14 from the end of the previous week [13]. - The average daily trading volume of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF options decreased compared to the previous week, while the total position increased. The average daily trading volume of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF options for the week was 1,165,780 contracts, a decrease of 219,482 contracts from the previous week's average daily trading volume. The total position was 1,284,104 contracts, an increase of 107,929 contracts from the end of the previous week. The total position PCR was 0.89, a decrease of 0.14 from the end of the previous week [15]. - The average daily trading volume of Southern CSI 500ETF options decreased compared to the previous week, while the total position increased. The average daily trading volume of Southern CSI 500ETF options for the week was 1,352,948 contracts, a decrease of 102,102 contracts from the previous week's average daily trading volume. The total position was 1,249,009 contracts, an increase of 165,492 contracts from the end of the previous week. The total position PCR was 1.07, an increase of 0.06 from the end of the previous week [19]. 3.2.2 Volatility Situation - **Historical Volatility**: As of August 1, the 5-day historical rolling volatility of 50ETF rose to 13.05%, near the 50th percentile of the five-year historical level. Currently, the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 40-day historical volatilities are 13.05%, 10.97%, 9.09%, and 9.07% respectively [22]. - The 5-day historical rolling volatility of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF rose to 14.26%, near the 50th percentile of the five-year historical level. Currently, the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 40-day historical volatilities are 14.26%, 12.76%, 10.26%, and 9.74% respectively [25]. - The 5-day historical rolling volatility of Southern CSI 500ETF rose to 12.99%, near the 25th percentile of the five-year historical level. Currently, the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 40-day historical volatilities are 12.99%, 13.83%, 11.63%, and 11.80% respectively [26]. - **Implied Volatility**: On August 1, the implied volatility near the at-the-money level decreased, and the overall implied volatility level declined. For 50ETF and 300ETF, the slopes on both sides of the curve increased, indicating an increased market expectation of future volatility. For 500ETF, the curve shifted to the left, showing some cautious sentiment [29]. - **Comparison of Historical Volatility and Implied Volatility Trends**: In terms of volatility, short-term volatility increased slightly, and monthly volatility followed suit. Implied volatility declined continuously during the week, and the volatility difference narrowed significantly. It is expected that historical volatility will continue to rise in the future, and the volatility difference will further narrow [36]. 3.3 Investment Recommendations - Given the market decline, the divergence in position PCR ratios, and the changes in the implied volatility curve structure, a cautious attitude towards small-cap growth stocks is recommended, and large-cap blue-chip underlying assets such as 50ETF and 300ETF are relatively favored [5][43].

Market Review - The closing prices of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 2692.1287, 3877.5557, and 6167.0149 respectively, with daily changes of 0.05%, 0.23%, and 0.72%. Their trading volumes were 30.78 billion, 122.88 billion, and 206.08 billion, and turnovers were 559.62 billion yuan, 2317.49 billion yuan, and 2732.39 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The trading volumes of Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 index options were 1.47 million, 4.87 million, and 16.35 million contracts. Their open interests were 6.63 million, 17.69 million, and 27.19 million contracts respectively [4]. - The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% to 3384.1 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.58%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.17%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.29%, the STAR 50 rose 1.04%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.35%. A - shares traded 1.32 trillion yuan, compared with 1.18 trillion yuan the previous day [8]. Volatility Analysis - Analyzes the historical volatility chains and volatility smile curves of Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including indicators such as maximum, minimum, 10% - 90% quantiles, and current values [6][8].

Market Performance Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.7% at 3363.45 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.24%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.37%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 62.73%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 1.61%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.77% [8] - A-share trading volume was 1.21 trillion yuan, compared with 1.03 trillion yuan the previous day [8] Index Quotes Index Price and Change - The closing price of the SSE 50 was 2690.8926, up 0.29%, with a trading volume of 532.80 billion yuan and a turnover of 27.47 billion [4] - The closing price of the CSI 300 was 3858.6998, up 0.59%, with a trading volume of 2094.60 billion yuan and a turnover of 108.47 billion [4] - The closing price of the CSI 1000 was 6089.5778, up 1.76%, with a trading volume of 2325.76 billion yuan and a turnover of 189.38 billion [4] Index Option Trading - For the SSE 50 options, the trading volume was 2.22 million contracts, with 1.39 million call options and 0.83 million put options. The PCR was 0.60, and the open interest was 6.13 million contracts, with 3.73 million call options and 2.40 million put options, and the PCR was 0.64 [4] - For the CSI 300 options, the trading volume was 5.70 million contracts, with 3.55 million call options and 2.15 million put options. The PCR was 0.60, and the open interest was 16.55 million contracts, with 9.87 million call options and 6.68 million put options, and the PCR was 0.68 [4] - For the CSI 1000 options, the trading volume was 19.68 million contracts, with 10.06 million call options and 9.63 million put options. The PCR was 0.96, and the open interest was 25.14 million contracts, with 13.09 million call options and 12.06 million put options, and the PCR was 0.92 [4] Volatility Analysis SSE 50 Volatility - The historical volatility of the SSE 50 is presented in a historical volatility chain, showing minimum, maximum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% percentile values, and the current value [6][8] - The next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve are also analyzed [8] CSI 300 Volatility - The historical volatility of the CSI 300 is presented in a historical volatility chain, showing minimum, maximum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% percentile values, and the current value [8] - The next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve are also analyzed [8] CSI 1000 Volatility - The historical volatility of the CSI 1000 is presented in a historical volatility chain, showing minimum, maximum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% percentile values, and the current value [8] - The next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve are also analyzed [8]