证券研究报告 2025 年 9 月 1 日 湘财证券研究所 宏观研究 宏观月度数据点评 建筑业景气度下滑明显 ——8 月 PMI 数据点评 相关研究： | 1. | 《制造业和服务业景气度回 | | --- | --- | | 升》 | 2024.11.05 | | 2. | 《非制造业景气度回升明 | | 显》 | 2025.01.06 | | 3. | 《制造业和非制造业景气度 | | 均有所回落》 | 2025.02.05 | | 4. | 《关税致外需景气度下滑明 | | 显》 | 2025.05.06 | 分析师：何超 证书编号： S0500521070002 Tel：021-50295325 Email： hechao@xcsc.com 根据 Wind 数据，商务活动 PMI 录得 50.3，较前值上涨 0.2 个百分点； 建筑业 PMI 录得 49.1，较前值下降 1.5 个百分点；服务业 PMI 录得 50.5，较前值上涨 0.5 个百分点。建筑业景气度下滑明显，新订单指数 降至 40.6，显示地产销售疲软和专项债发行节奏放缓导致新增项目不 足；尽管从业人员指数回升，但供需矛盾突出，拖累整体非 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the liquor sector is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that external positive factors are gradually increasing, with liquor sales improving since August. The second quarter saw a significant decline in consumption scenarios due to policy impacts, but the situation has started to recover with normal personal consumption and gatherings [2][3] - The performance of Moutai in the mid-year report shows resilience, reflecting the industry's focus on maintaining market order amid demand pressures. Moutai's revenue for the first half of 2025 increased by 9.2% year-on-year, indicating a strategic adjustment in product structure and market investment [2][3] - The report anticipates that the valuation of the liquor sector will enter a phase of oscillation and recovery, with expectations of improved demand and inventory stabilization as the market adjusts to new consumption patterns [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The report highlights that the liquor sector has faced significant demand pressure, but the worst phase appears to have passed, with expectations for improved sales during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [2][3] - The report notes that the price of Moutai has remained stable around 1900 yuan, with a projected year-on-year decline in price expected to bottom out [3][9] 2. Company Performance - Moutai's mid-year performance reflects a 9.2% increase in revenue, with strategic adjustments to product offerings and market engagement [2][18] - Wuliangye has seen its price drop to approximately 845 yuan, indicating pressure on high-end liquor demand, but there are signs of recovery in sales as consumer behavior improves [19] - Luzhou Laojiao's price for its premium product has stabilized at around 835 yuan, demonstrating the company's ability to manage supply and demand effectively [20] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a portfolio including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu for August [4]