Investment Rating - The investment rating for the liquor sector is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that external positive factors are gradually increasing, with liquor sales improving since August. The second quarter saw a significant decline in consumption scenarios due to policy impacts, but the situation has started to recover with normal personal consumption and gatherings [2][3] - The performance of Moutai in the mid-year report shows resilience, reflecting the industry's focus on maintaining market order amid demand pressures. Moutai's revenue for the first half of 2025 increased by 9.2% year-on-year, indicating a strategic adjustment in product structure and market investment [2][3] - The report anticipates that the valuation of the liquor sector will enter a phase of oscillation and recovery, with expectations of improved demand and inventory stabilization as the market adjusts to new consumption patterns [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The report highlights that the liquor sector has faced significant demand pressure, but the worst phase appears to have passed, with expectations for improved sales during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [2][3] - The report notes that the price of Moutai has remained stable around 1900 yuan, with a projected year-on-year decline in price expected to bottom out [3][9] 2. Company Performance - Moutai's mid-year performance reflects a 9.2% increase in revenue, with strategic adjustments to product offerings and market engagement [2][18] - Wuliangye has seen its price drop to approximately 845 yuan, indicating pressure on high-end liquor demand, but there are signs of recovery in sales as consumer behavior improves [19] - Luzhou Laojiao's price for its premium product has stabilized at around 835 yuan, demonstrating the company's ability to manage supply and demand effectively [20] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a portfolio including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu for August [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is currently in a deep value zone, with the CITIC liquor index showing a rebound and a dividend yield of 3.72% as of July 25, 2025, indicating strong profitability and willingness to distribute dividends [1][13]. - The restaurant supply chain is undergoing active transformation, with companies like Weizhi Xiang expanding their product categories and enhancing their sales channels, particularly in lower-tier cities [2][14]. - The snack food sector is focusing on steady growth in store openings and exploring new product categories, with companies like Wancheng Group adapting to market demands [3][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The CITIC liquor index has seen a rebound, with a dividend yield of 3.72% as of July 25, 2025, placing it in a deep value zone [1][13]. - The cumulative net profit for the liquor sector is projected to reach 166.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 71% [1][13]. - The proportion of actively managed equity public funds holding liquor stocks has decreased to 5.1%, indicating significant clearing of positions [1][13]. - The market price of Moutai has dropped over 10% since the announcement of austerity measures, impacting confidence in the market [1][13]. Restaurant Supply Chain - Weizhi Xiang is actively transforming its channels, expanding product categories, and enhancing its online presence to boost sales [2][14]. - The company is also focusing on expanding into lower-tier cities and encouraging franchisees to open multiple stores [2][14]. - The B-end group meal channel has shown significant growth, with expectations for further expansion [2][14]. Snack Food Sector - Wancheng Group is maintaining a steady pace of store openings, with an increase in customer traffic despite a slight decline in average transaction value [3][15]. - The company is transitioning from rapid expansion to improving operational efficiency and brand building [3][15]. - New product categories are being explored, including collaborations with local suppliers for baked goods [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining positions in dairy and snack sectors, recommending companies like Yili and Yanjinpuzi for core holdings [4][43]. - It also advises flexible trading in underperforming sectors with potential for recovery, such as Lihai Food and New Dairy [4][43]. - For the liquor sector, it recommends focusing on companies with better competitive positioning, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [4][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][73]. Core Views - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with a focus on the mid-year performance of the sector. The overall sentiment is improving due to policy expectations aimed at boosting domestic demand, leading to a recovery in the liquor sector after significant declines [2][11][13]. - The beer and beverage segments are entering a peak season, with expectations for strong mid-year performance. Companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer are projected to achieve substantial profit growth due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [14][15][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer engagement and market health for liquor companies, suggesting a shift towards internationalization and targeting younger demographics [2][11][13]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor index rose by 1.4% this week, with major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye focusing on brand strength and service enhancement. The sector is expected to recover from low valuations, although demand pressures remain significant [2][11][13]. - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, which have demonstrated strong risk resilience [2][11][13]. Consumer Goods - The beer segment is expected to benefit from seasonal demand, with Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer forecasting a 40% to 50% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [14][15]. - The snack sector is experiencing volatility, with a recommendation for companies with strong performance certainty, such as Wei Long and Yan Jin [16]. - In the condiment sector, leading companies are expected to show resilience, with a focus on policy developments that could enhance the restaurant industry's vitality [17]. Frozen Foods and Dairy - Frozen food companies are actively developing new products to cater to both B2B and B2C markets, with a focus on convenience and smaller packaging [18]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in demand, supported by favorable policies and improved supply dynamics [19]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage expected to continue expanding their market presence [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investment in high-end liquor brands and potential cyclical recovery in beer and yellow wine sectors [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on sales due to external risks and a need for demand improvement, with expectations for the price of original box Feitian Moutai to stabilize around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The beer industry is showing signs of stabilization with a recovery in dining demand and potential for high-frequency sales tracking, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming peak season [3][12]. - The yellow wine sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and market promotion efforts by leading brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][13]. - The snack food industry remains robust, driven by channel expansion and new product penetration, with expectations for continued high growth in Q2 [3][12]. - The soft drink sector is seeing demand improvement driven by health-oriented and functional beverages, with a positive outlook for brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [4][14]. - The seasoning industry is stabilizing at a low point, with growth relying on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant sector [5][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Feitian Moutai's original box price is stable between 1900-1950 RMB, with expectations for a price stabilization around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The industry is under pressure, but the market's expectations for short-term performance have been adequately priced in, suggesting a potential for recovery [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to stabilize with a recovery in dining demand and increased focus on non-drinking channels [3][12]. - The industry is positioned for a favorable performance in the upcoming peak season, with anticipated steady mid-year earnings [3][12]. Yellow Wine Industry - The trend towards premiumization is becoming a consensus among leading brands, with increased marketing efforts and a focus on younger consumers [3][13]. Snack Food Industry - The snack food sector is maintaining high growth due to channel expansion and new product introductions, with Q2 performance expected to continue the positive trend [3][12]. Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink market is improving, driven by health and functional beverages, with brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [4][14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing, with growth dependent on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant industry [5][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][73]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector has shown a slight increase of 0.02% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.89 percentage points [21]. - The report highlights that the price of Feitian Moutai has shown signs of stabilization, while the fundamentals of the liquor industry may accelerate to a bottom [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new channels and products in the consumer goods sector, particularly as beer and beverage consumption enters a peak season [3][14]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on demand, with the white liquor index down by 1.7% this week. The report anticipates a subdued performance in the second quarter [2][13]. - Key recommendations include focusing on leading companies with strong risk resistance such as Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as companies like Luzhou Laojiao that are showing signs of valuation recovery [2][13]. Consumer Goods - The beer sector is benefiting from warmer weather, which is expected to boost consumption. The report suggests monitoring alpha-type stocks like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer for potential investment opportunities [14][15]. - The snack food sector is undergoing a trend of differentiation, with recommendations for companies that are innovating in new products and channels, such as Weilong and Yanjinpuzi [16]. - In the seasoning industry, the report notes resilience in basic seasoning leaders and suggests focusing on policy developments that could impact the sector [17]. Frozen Food - The frozen food sector is stable during the off-season, with companies actively developing new products. The report highlights the upcoming IPO of Anjins Food as a significant event [18]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with potential policy catalysts aiding in supply-demand improvements by 2025 [19][20]. Beverage Sector - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with leading companies expected to maintain positive growth. The report recommends focusing on companies like Dongpeng Beverage that are accelerating national and platform expansion [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [2][5][6]. Core Views - The high-end liquor prices continue to face pressure, influenced by a "ban on alcohol" affecting short-term market fluctuations. The white liquor industry is undergoing a longer adjustment cycle compared to the previous one, with demand decline attributed to regulatory policies and economic activity levels [3][13][15]. - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 4.42% during the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.17 percentage points [2][24]. Summary by Sections 1. White Liquor - High-end liquor prices are under pressure, with a reported 2.0% year-on-year decline in liquor prices from January to May. The white liquor index fell by 5.3% this week, influenced by the "ban on alcohol" for public officials [3][15]. - Recommended stocks include leading companies with proven risk resilience such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as those with digital transformation benefits like Luzhou Laojiao [3][15]. 2. Consumer Goods - The upcoming IPO of Haitian Flavoring and Food Co. is noted, with the beer and beverage sectors entering a peak season. The report suggests focusing on alpha-type beer stocks like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer during valuation corrections [4][16]. - The snack sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with recommendations for companies like Wei Long and Yanjinpuzi that are innovating in product categories and channels [4][18]. 3. Seasonality and Market Trends - The report highlights that the beer sector is entering its peak season, with expectations for stable or growing sales due to favorable weather conditions. The report suggests monitoring stocks like Qingdao Beer and China Resources Beer for rebound opportunities [4][17]. - The dairy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with potential policy catalysts and supply adjustments leading to improved conditions in 2025 [4][21]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The recommended investment portfolio includes Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanjing Beer, Wei Long, and Yihai International [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the demand for high-end liquor continues to face pressure during the off-season, while beer and beverages are entering a demand peak [2][11]. - The liquor index has decreased by 0.9%, indicating ongoing short-term fundamental pressures [13]. - The report suggests three investment themes: 1) Leading liquor companies with proven risk resilience such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye; 2) Luzhou Laojiao, which is showing signs of digital transformation and valuation recovery; 3) Companies like Jinsiyuan and Yingjia Gongjiu that have potential for market share growth [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The report notes that high-end liquor prices have slightly declined, with Kweichow Moutai's stock buyback and international product launches being significant developments [2][11]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to focus on expanding its market presence and improving brand image [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer engagement and channel management for liquor companies [2][11]. 2. Consumer Goods - The beer industry is expected to enter a peak sales phase, benefiting from a low base from the previous year [14][15]. - The snack food sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with leading companies enhancing efficiency across the supply chain [15]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with new product launches and channel breakthroughs, such as Wei Long and Yihai International [15]. 3. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Kweichow Moutai is projected to have an EPS of 75.28 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.0 [4]. - Wuliangye is expected to have an EPS of 8.44 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 14.8 [4]. - Luzhou Laojiao's EPS is forecasted at 9.64 for 2025, with a PE ratio of 12.1 [4]. 4. Market Trends - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.65% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.78 percentage points [20]. - The report indicates that the beverage sector is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage sector is "Outperform the Market" [4][5][76]. Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor industry is currently facing pressure on volume and price during the off-season, but the confidence from the Moutai shareholders' meeting indicates resilience through cycles. Moutai's chairman emphasized the company's commitment to product quality and cultural foundation, while the general manager pointed out the need for rational recognition of the current cyclical challenges [2][11]. - The beverage sector is entering a demand peak season, with expectations for good sales performance due to low base comparisons from the previous year. The report suggests that the beer industry is stabilizing and recovering, with a focus on structural allocation opportunities [3][14][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Perspective - Moutai's shareholders' meeting conveyed confidence in navigating through cycles, while beer and beverage sectors are entering a demand peak [1][11]. - The liquor production from January to April 2025 was 1.308 million kiloliters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with April's production down 13.8% [2][11]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The food and beverage sector declined by 1.32% from May 19 to May 23, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.76 percentage points [21]. - The white liquor index fell by 2.8% during the same period, influenced by external disturbances and ongoing demand pressures [13][21]. 3. Key Company Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - Moutai (600519.SH) is rated "Outperform the Market" with a projected EPS of 75.28 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 20.9 [4]. - Other companies such as Wuliangye (000858.SZ), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH), and Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) also received "Outperform the Market" ratings, indicating strong performance expectations [4]. 4. Sector Analysis - The beer industry is expected to enter a sales verification phase, with good performance anticipated due to last year's low base [14][15]. - The snack sector is experiencing a trend of efficiency improvements across the supply chain, with recommendations for companies that are innovating and breaking into new channels [16]. - The condiment sector shows strong performance from leading companies, with a focus on the recovery of the restaurant chain [17]. - The frozen food sector is stabilizing, but the restaurant industry remains weak, impacting sales [18]. - The dairy sector is seeing a potential policy catalyst for demand recovery, with supply clearing accelerating [19].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share liquor industry has experienced a significant decline of over 40% since its peak in February 2021, with the white liquor sector particularly struggling, contrasting sharply with its previous popularity before 2021 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - From 2022 to 2024, the net profit growth rate of A-share listed liquor companies is projected to decline, with figures of 20.3%, 18.9%, and 7.4% respectively, marking a significant drop from the double-digit growth seen in previous years [2]. - In Q1 2025, total revenue for listed liquor companies reached 153.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, while net profit was 63.39 billion yuan, up 2.3% [4]. - Despite some companies like Moutai and Wuliangye showing positive growth, nearly half of the A-share liquor companies reported declining performance, with some experiencing revenue drops of up to 80% [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall profitability of the liquor sector remains high, with a gross profit margin of 81.53% and a net profit margin of 42.54% in Q1 2025, largely supported by leading companies [8]. - The market is currently facing a "volume and price decline" scenario, contrasting with the consumption upgrade seen in the previous five years [9][10]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the liquor index is 19.9 times, a significant drop from 70 times in February 2021, aligning with valuation levels from 2015 and 2018 [10][12]. Group 3: Economic Influences - The liquor industry is undergoing a cyclical downturn, influenced by broader economic factors such as the real estate market's decline, which has seen a drop in sales area from 1.79 billion square meters in 2021 to 970 million square meters in 2024, a decrease of over 45% [14]. - The decline in real estate prices and the shrinking asset base of middle-class families are expected to negatively impact personal liquor consumption [15]. - The demographic trends indicate a potential decline in the drinking population starting in 2028, which could further pressure demand [17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current cycle presents greater challenges for the liquor industry compared to previous downturns, with no clear new growth engines to drive recovery [20]. - While exploring international markets could provide growth opportunities, the cultural differences in drinking habits pose significant challenges [21]. - The liquor industry is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more mature and potentially declining phase, with long-term growth rates likely to settle in the single digits [22].