Core Points - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session has approved the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal, which sets a clear direction for China's high-quality development over the next five years [1][2] - The plan emphasizes the continuity of China's modernization policies and aims to provide a reference for international cooperation [1][2] Group 1: Economic and Social Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a foundation for China's economic and social development, symbolizing a new stage of governance, social harmony, and economic vitality [1][2] - The plan outlines significant goals for technological self-reliance and social development, with a focus on improving the level of technological independence [2] - High-quality development is prioritized, with the term mentioned ten times in the official communiqué, indicating a strong policy signal for future growth [2] Group 2: International Perspective - The plan is viewed as crucial for China's global standing and national pride, with experts noting its importance in the context of a turbulent international environment [2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to guide China's economic strategy from 2026 to 2030, reflecting the country's aspirations as a major global power [1][2] - The emphasis on high-quality development and technological innovation is likely to influence international economic relations and cooperation [2]

Group 1 - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections may lead to the ruling coalition losing its majority, which could negatively impact the country's $6.8 trillion stock market [1] - The Japanese stock market has underperformed compared to the MSCI global index this month, raising concerns about the potential governance capabilities of a weak minority government [1][4] - Political uncertainty is eroding investor confidence, as evidenced by a 1.2% decline in the Tokyo Stock Exchange index after three months of gains [4] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that if the ruling party loses in elections, the market may take 35 to 75 days to bottom out, with an average total decline of about 8% [4] - Analysts warn of a potential "triple whammy" in the Japanese financial market, affecting stocks, bonds, and currency if extreme political factions gain power [6] - A weaker yen could benefit exporters affected by U.S. tariffs, while opposition parties' proposals to cut food consumption taxes may boost consumer stocks [6] Group 3 - The election may have profound implications for corporate governance reforms, a key driver of recent stock market gains in Japan [7] - The potential coalition formation by the ruling party could alter its stance on corporate governance, which investors may not be fully aware of [8] - Rising populism in Japan is reflected in increasing support for new political parties advocating for changes in profit distribution models [8]

Legislative Progress - The "Beautiful Act" has passed the Senate with a narrow margin of 51 to 50, entering the final legislative phase [1][13] - The bill will undergo review in the House of Representatives, with potential for further amendments [1][13] - Three possible timelines for final passage are outlined: before July 4, mid-July, or late July to August [2][13] Content Adjustments - The Senate version of the bill increases the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next decade, which is $550 billion more than the House version [2][14] - Corporate tax cuts are expanded while personal tax cuts are reduced, with a focus on benefiting high-income earners [2][14] - Significant cuts to healthcare and welfare spending are proposed, including an increase in medical assistance cuts from $800 billion to $930 billion [3][14] Economic Impact - The "Beautiful Act" is expected to moderately boost the U.S. economy, potentially increasing annual real GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027 [4][15] - The lowest 20% of income households may see a 2.9% decrease in income, while the highest 20% could experience a 1.9% increase due to tax cuts [5][15] - Capital-intensive industries, such as manufacturing and defense, are likely to benefit, while the renewable energy sector may face challenges due to reduced tax incentives [5][15]