关于城乡发展格局，一项至关重要的顶层设计明确了最新方向。 近日，国务院关于建立健全城乡融合发展体制机制工作情况的报告已提请全国人大常委会议审议。 其中一句关键表述，为户籍制度走向定下基调：放开放宽除个别超大城市外的落户限制。 实际上，去年以来厦门、惠州、合肥、杭州、南京、苏州等众多城市已相继出台宽松政策，"租房落户"、"购房落户"乃至"参保居住即可落户"正在成为二 三线城市的标配。 从7个超大城市落户门槛来看，四大一线城市落户门槛相对较高，其中北京和上海依然是落户门槛最高的两个城市，积分落户社保要满七年，深圳和广州 分别是五年和四年；从学历门槛来看，深圳是唯一仍对全日制大专生开放直接落户通道的一线城市。 这意味接下来大多数城市落户门槛将大范围降低，对房地产而言，人口与城镇化始终是需求的根基，落户门槛的下调也将对住房需求起到支撑作用。 超90%的城市落户进入"低门槛时代" 报告显示，城区常住人口300万以下城市落户限制基本取消，城区常住人口300万至500万城市落户条件进一步放宽，超大特大城市积分落户政策不断优 化。 更为重要的是，国务院在明确未来五年推进城乡融合发展的任务举措中，明确放开放宽除个别超大城市外的 ...

全文共4390字，阅读大约需要10分钟 文｜南方周末记者 周小铃 责任编辑｜张玥 1997年，中国开始推行户籍制度改革。近三十年里，人们能感受到户籍门槛在逐渐降低。如今，它究竟降低到了什么程度？ 北京大学主管的《经济学（季刊）》2024年最佳论文提名《户籍制度改革与城市落户门槛的量化分析：1996-2024》一文给出了答案。 文章对全国332城在1996年至2024年间的落户政策文件进行分析，并得出了结论。 该文为山东大学经济学院教授张吉鹏、西南财经大学博士陈翥的合作成果，也是张吉鹏团队2019年发表的相关论文的续篇。 张吉鹏从事户籍研究近十年。令他印象最深的，是户籍政策出台背后的复杂性。制定一项户籍政策，背后是地方政府的综合考量。 比如，有的城市放开户籍的用意在于提振房地产，他们会设定购房面积作为落户标准之一，甚至考虑到如何避免落户者占用保障房资源。 针对户籍制度的研究成果，2025年11月29日，南方周末记者专访了张吉鹏。 1 覆盖332城 南方周末：你为何会关注到户籍制度和落户门槛这个话题？ 张吉鹏：我最初做的是城市发展研究。城市发展是中国过去几十年经济发展的重要引擎，人口流动又是城市发展研究的重要话题 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic planning and goals set forth in the "15th Five-Year Plan" for China's economic and social development, emphasizing the importance of achieving a per capita GDP level comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035, which requires maintaining an average annual growth rate of approximately 4.8% during the "15th Five-Year" period [1][6][10]. Economic Growth and Productivity - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to maintain economic growth within a reasonable range while steadily improving total factor productivity and significantly increasing the resident consumption rate [1][6]. - To achieve the target of per capita GDP reaching around $25,000 by 2035, an average annual growth rate of 4.8% is necessary, with potential growth rates estimated between 4.5% and 4.8% [6][7]. Demographic Challenges and Consumption - China is entering a phase of negative population growth and moderate aging, with projections indicating that by 2032, over 21% of the population will be aged 65 and above, which will impact consumption patterns [7]. - The emphasis on increasing the resident consumption rate is crucial to counteract the negative effects of demographic changes and to enhance the income levels and consumption capabilities of residents, particularly the elderly [7][10]. Income Distribution and Middle-Income Expansion - Expanding the middle-income group is essential for achieving higher levels of common prosperity and modernization by 2035 [10]. - Improving income distribution requires coordinated efforts across primary, secondary, and tertiary distribution, with a focus on enhancing labor market conditions and reducing structural unemployment [10][12]. Government Investment and Social Services - The article highlights the need for government spending to focus more on "investing in people" rather than solely on material investments, suggesting a shift in priorities to enhance social welfare and public services [8][13]. - Increasing the share of social spending in GDP is necessary to improve the quality of life and reduce poverty transmission across generations [13]. Artificial Intelligence and Employment - The development of artificial intelligence (AI) presents both challenges and opportunities for employment, necessitating alignment with an "employment-first strategy" to ensure that AI enhances rather than replaces human labor [14][15]. - AI can help address structural employment issues by improving labor productivity and facilitating the transition of labor from low-productivity agricultural sectors to higher-productivity non-agricultural sectors [20][22]. Urbanization and Household Registration Reform - The article discusses the ongoing urbanization process and the need for reforming the household registration system to facilitate labor mobility and improve access to public services for rural residents transitioning to urban areas [16][17]. - Enhancing public services in urban areas and reducing the disparity in service quality between urban and rural regions are critical for successful urbanization [17]. Agricultural Modernization - The potential for agricultural modernization in China is significant, with opportunities for labor transfer from agriculture to higher productivity sectors, supported by advancements in technology and AI [20][22]. - Modern agriculture is characterized by high labor productivity, large operational scales, and the application of scientific technologies, which can be further enhanced through AI [21][22].

Economic Growth and Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a reasonable economic growth rate to achieve a per capita GDP at the level of middle-income countries by 2035, requiring an average annual growth rate of approximately 4.8% during this period [6][10] - The plan emphasizes the importance of improving total factor productivity, increasing the resident consumption rate, and ensuring synchronized growth of resident income and economic growth [6][10] Consumption and Income Distribution - The focus on increasing the resident consumption rate is crucial due to the anticipated challenges from negative population growth and aging demographics, which will impact demand [7][10] - The Gini coefficient of 0.465 indicates a need for improved income distribution, with efforts to ensure that low-income groups see faster income growth compared to high-income groups [7][10][12] Middle-Income Group Expansion - Expanding the middle-income group is essential for achieving higher levels of common prosperity and modernization, necessitating coordinated improvements in initial, secondary, and tertiary income distribution [10][12] - The labor market must address structural unemployment, particularly among the elderly and youth, through targeted training and support [10][11] Role of Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to exacerbate structural employment issues but can also enhance labor productivity, providing solutions to these challenges [15][16] - A systematic governance framework is needed to align AI development with employment priorities, ensuring that AI not only replaces jobs but also enhances worker capabilities [15][16] Urban-Rural Integration and Household Registration Reform - The reform of the household registration system is critical for urbanization, with the potential to convert over 200 million rural residents into urban citizens, thereby stabilizing labor supply and enhancing economic growth [18][19] - The focus should be on improving public services in smaller cities and rural areas to attract and retain residents [19] Agricultural Modernization - China's agricultural labor force still has significant potential for transfer to higher productivity sectors, with current agricultural labor accounting for 22% of the workforce [22][23] - Modern agriculture is characterized by high labor productivity, large operational scales, and the application of advanced technologies, including AI, to enhance efficiency and output [23][24]

Core Insights - The 14th Five-Year Plan is crucial for achieving the goal of modernizing China's economy and society by 2035, with a key indicator being the per capita GDP reaching the level of middle-income developed countries [1][5] - The plan emphasizes maintaining reasonable economic growth, improving total factor productivity, increasing the consumption rate, and expanding the middle-income group [1][5][6] Economic Growth and Productivity - The average annual growth rate required to reach the per capita GDP target of approximately $25,000 by 2035 is estimated to be around 4.8% [5][6] - Current potential growth rates for China's economy are estimated between 4.5% and 4.8%, with the possibility of increasing if reforms are intensified [5][6] Consumption and Income Distribution - The focus on increasing the consumption rate is driven by the need to address challenges posed by negative population growth and aging demographics, which will impact demand [6][7] - Improving income distribution is essential, with a current Gini coefficient of 0.465 indicating a need for faster income growth among low-income groups to expand the middle-income population [6][7][9] Employment and Labor Market - The labor market requires targeted efforts to address structural unemployment, particularly among the elderly and youth, through vocational training and support [8][9][11] - The rise of new employment forms, including gig economy jobs, necessitates the development of suitable social security systems to protect workers' rights [9][11][12] Urbanization and Household Registration Reform - Urbanization is ongoing, with a significant gap between registered and actual urban populations, indicating potential for economic contributions through household registration reform [15][16] - The reform aims to enhance public services and employment opportunities in cities, thereby attracting rural residents to urban areas [15][16] Agricultural Modernization - The potential for labor transfer from agriculture to higher productivity sectors remains significant, with current agricultural labor accounting for 22% of the workforce [17][18] - Modern agriculture is characterized by high labor productivity, large operational scales, and the application of advanced technologies, including AI [19][20]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of "people-centered new urbanization" and highlights the need for reforming the household registration system as a breakthrough for achieving equal access to public services [1][2]. Group 1: Household Registration Reform - The reform aims to transition from a management tool to a service-oriented system, allowing more cities to implement "zero-threshold household registration" for new citizens [1]. - The new system recognizes that every worker contributing to urban development should enjoy equal benefits, enhancing urban inclusivity [1][3]. Group 2: Equalization of Public Services - The core principle of the household registration reform is the equalization of public services, moving from "some differences" to "equal treatment" [2]. - Various cities are optimizing infrastructure and public service supply to ensure that migrant populations can not only settle but thrive in urban environments [2]. - Educational access for migrant children is improving, with policies like "long-young follow education" easing the burden on multi-child families [2]. - Housing security measures are being expanded to include stable employment migrants in public rental housing [2]. - Healthcare and pension systems are becoming more accessible, with expanded direct settlement for medical services and easier social security transitions [2]. Group 3: Challenges and Requirements - Achieving true equalization of public services demands enhanced urban governance and resource capacity [2]. - Cities must improve their public service supply capabilities and quality through advanced planning and innovative service delivery methods [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of "people-centered new urbanization" and the need for "household registration system reform" as a breakthrough for equal access to public services [1] - The reform aims to transition from a management tool to a service carrier for household registration, allowing more cities to implement "zero-threshold household registration" for new citizens [1] - The reform acknowledges that every worker contributing to urban development should enjoy equal benefits, enhancing the inclusivity of cities [1] Group 2 - The equalization of public services is the core principle of the household registration reform, reflecting social fairness and justice [2] - Various cities are optimizing infrastructure and public service supply to ensure that migrant populations can not only settle but thrive in urban areas [2] - The reform includes lowering enrollment barriers for migrant children, integrating stable employment migrants into public housing, and expanding medical and pension services [2] Group 3 - Each step of the household registration reform is closely linked to the well-being of the populace, ensuring that children of migrant workers can study in the cities where their parents work [3] - The advancement of people-centered urbanization allows every city builder to equally enjoy the fruits of development [3]

Core Insights - The global investment trend in artificial intelligence (AI) is significant, with predictions indicating that over 90% of the U.S. GDP growth this year will stem from AI investments [1] - The discussion at the Taihu World Cultural Forum highlighted the dual nature of AI development as both a revolution and a potential bubble, emphasizing that the current investment wave in AI is unlikely to cool down [1][3] Group 1: Economic Implications - East Asian countries, including China, Japan, and South Korea, face challenges such as low birth rates, labor shortages, and high aging populations, necessitating AI to enhance labor productivity and reduce input costs [3] - The ability of AI to align with China's high-quality development goals is crucial for its sustainable growth [3] Group 2: Institutional Support - The development of AI requires a supportive institutional environment to balance its creative and destructive potential, which can be achieved through reforms [3][5] - The need for institutional arrangements to ensure that the benefits of productivity growth from AI are equitably shared among all residents, including the elderly, is emphasized [5] Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - The projected growth of China's "support ratio" (the ratio of working-age population to elderly) is expected to outpace the increase in the elderly dependency ratio by 5.6% annually by 2035, indicating a potential for productivity to overcome aging challenges [5] - The urbanization gap in China presents a significant opportunity for labor supply and productivity enhancement, with potential reforms in the household registration system (hukou) capable of unlocking millions of laborers [7]

Core Points - Xiamen City has issued a notification to optimize and improve household registration conditions, set to take effect on November 1, 2025 [2] - The reform aims to fully relax household registration conditions for individuals from outside the island while gradually easing restrictions for those within the island [2] Group 1: New Registration Policies - New policies include allowing individuals renting from outside the island to register, easing employment-based registration for those from outside the island, and enabling rental-based registration for employment personnel within the island [2] - Specific conditions for registration in districts such as Jimei, Haicang, Tong'an, and Xiang'an include having a rental registration and residence registration for at least six months, along with continuous social insurance contributions for at least three months [2] - For the island districts of Siming and Huli, individuals must have continuous social insurance contributions for two years and residence registration for two years to apply for household registration [2] Group 2: Application Process - Individuals meeting the registration criteria must apply in the order of their employment unit's collective household, the community public household of their employment location, and the community public household of their residence [2] - Spouses and minor children of eligible individuals are allowed to register together [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a new household registration reform in Xiamen, aimed at facilitating orderly population flow and optimizing urbanization by easing residency requirements for both island and off-island residents [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy will be officially implemented on November 1, 2025, and is designed to comprehensively relax residency conditions for off-island applicants while gradually easing restrictions for on-island applicants [1] - The reform aims to improve conditions for legal and stable employment and rental housing, as well as streamline the process for agricultural migrant workers to settle in urban areas [1] Group 2: Specific Conditions for Residency - For off-island rental housing, individuals in Jimei, Haicang, Tong'an, and Xiang'an districts who have registered for housing rental for at least six months and have paid social insurance for three months can apply for residency in their area of residence [1] - For off-island employment, individuals in the same districts who have paid social insurance for six months and have registered for residence for at least six months can apply for residency at their employment location [1] - For on-island employment, individuals in Siming and Huli districts who have paid social insurance for two years and have registered for housing rental for two years can apply for residency at their employment location [1] Group 3: Application Process - Individuals without housing must first apply for residency at their unit's collective household, and those meeting the residency conditions should apply in the order of their employment unit's collective household, community public household at their employment location, and community public household at their residence [1] - Spouses and minor children of eligible applicants can also migrate with them under the new policy [1]