为了短期利益和政治自恋，可以牺牲经济的长期稳定。 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，打开了未来降息的大门，美股、美债大涨，美元指数 跌至两年半新低。全球股市、债市纷纷走强，信用债增杠杆，能源、大宗商品、贵金属和农产品上扬， 风险资产价格比翼齐飞。 除了侮辱性攻击，白宫还在美联储理事会发起一场无声无息的政变。理事会七名成员中原本有两名理事 （均为特朗普第一届任命）支持降息，其他五名支持暂不启动利率调整。但是特朗普令白宫首席经济顾 问米兰空降理事会，接下来对另一位理事库克展开犯罪调查，逼迫其辞职，一旦得逞，理事会中"特朗 普之友"的数量就将超过"鲍威尔之友"。 如何判断通胀与就业风险，是经济学问题；但是特朗普政府威胁利诱以达到其影响利率决策目的，却是 政治问题，这一做法不仅冲击美联储的政策独立性，更将对美元信用带来深远影响。美国货币政策开始 跟随财政政策走上了民粹化道路——为了短期利益和政治自恋，可以牺牲经济的长期稳定。历史上民粹 主义的货币政策，可以逞一时之欢，但最终都没有好结果。 笔者对联邦利率的预测不变，9月启动降息，一码（25个基点），明年1月前有第二次一码降息。美联储 新主席上任后，政策利率将 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, but Chairman Powell's hawkish comments suggest a reluctance to cut rates soon, despite pressure from the President and Treasury Secretary [2][3] - Economic indicators show a divergence, with soft data indicating weakness in business and consumer confidence, while hard data such as employment and consumption remain resilient, leading to a reassessment of rate cut expectations [2][3] - The potential for a mild recession exists, with inflation possibly rising due to tariff impacts, which could challenge the Fed's policy balance and communication capabilities [3] Group 2 - The recent surge in the New Taiwan Dollar against the US Dollar has led to a rise in other Asian currencies, driven by significant trade surpluses and investment in US assets by Taiwanese insurance companies [4][5] - The reliance on US dollar assets poses risks, particularly if the dollar weakens or US Treasury yields decline, which could lead to significant valuation changes and increased currency risk for Asian insurers [4][5] - The long-term implications of these dynamics could affect capital markets, as Asian countries hold substantial US dollar assets while facing pressures from US trade policies [6]