Core Viewpoint - The article discusses concerns regarding the influence of the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve, particularly after the potential confirmation of Stephen Miran as a Fed governor, which could undermine the Fed's independence and credibility [2][5][6]. Group 1: Impact of Trump's Administration on the Federal Reserve - A survey of 94 economists indicates that many believe the Trump administration's pressure on the Federal Reserve could lead to a loss of its independence, with 89 participants stating that the ongoing conflict has already damaged the Fed's credibility [6]. - Over a quarter of economists worry that by 2029, the Fed may struggle to maintain its role in keeping borrowing costs free from political influence [6]. - 52% of respondents expect a shift in the Fed's focus after Powell's term ends, prioritizing government borrowing costs and employment over price stability [6]. Group 2: Economic Predictions and Concerns - Economists describe the outlook for U.S. monetary policy as "bad," "chaotic," and "disastrous," with 42% believing Trump's actions could trigger strong inflationary pressures [5][7]. - The potential loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds is seen as a significant risk by 35% of the surveyed economists [7]. - The article highlights that since 1951, the Fed has had the authority to set interest rates free from political pressure, despite past presidential calls for lower borrowing costs [9]. Group 3: Upcoming Events and Market Reactions - Stephen Miran's confirmation hearing is scheduled for September 4, with expectations that it may pass quickly before the FOMC meeting on September 16-17 [2][11]. - The market's reaction to Miran's nomination has been relatively calm, although there are concerns about potential aggressive questioning from Democrats regarding the administration's influence on the Fed [10][11]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting is estimated at 84%, following dovish comments from Powell [12].

金十数据7月22日讯，凯投宏观预测，法国政府借贷成本不久将超过意大利，反映出法国更糟糕的债务 动态。该机构欧洲首席经济学家安德鲁·肯宁汉在报告中指出："鉴于意大利债务负担更重、趋势增长率 更低，这一预测看似令人惊讶。但这反映出法国的债务动态更差且政治稳定性更弱。"凯投宏观预测， 到2023年底法国10年期国债收益率将升至3.75%，而意大利同期国债收益率可能维持在3.50%左右。 法国10年国债收益率 凯投宏观：法国政府借贷成本或将反超意大利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for Japanese government bonds is under scrutiny as the first ultra-long bond issuance follows a weak auction last week, leading to record-high yields [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The recent auction of 20-year bonds saw the weakest demand in over a decade, causing yields to surge to record levels [1]. - The upcoming issuance of 40-year bonds is pressured by rising long-term borrowing costs in major economies, including the U.S. [1]. - The yield on 30-year and 40-year bonds has reached their highest levels since issuance due to instability in ultra-long bonds [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Rising yields have diminished investor interest, with few willing to actively bid in upcoming auctions [4]. - The 10-year government bond yield was approximately 1.52%, having reached its highest level since 2008 earlier in March [4]. - Concerns over Japan's fiscal situation have been raised, with the Prime Minister warning that it is worse than Greece's [4]. Group 3: Institutional Responses - Major life insurance companies have reported unrealized losses of about $600 million on domestic bond holdings for the latest fiscal year [4]. - The Bank of Japan is preparing to review its bond purchase plan, responding to concerns from major life insurers and pension funds regarding rising yields [4]. - Sun Life Insurance plans to increase its domestic bond holdings but may delay some investments due to liquidity and price volatility concerns [5]. Group 4: Auction Expectations - Some market participants are optimistic that a strong result from the 40-year bond auction could halt the recent rise in yields [5]. - Factors such as high yield levels, reduced issuance, and investor-friendly auction formats may contribute to a successful auction outcome [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is facing new challenges as rising government borrowing costs and a potential increase in the deficit threaten to impact fiscal sustainability and economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's and the challenges in passing the Republican tax bill have led to a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, causing yields to rise sharply [1]. - The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.089%, the highest level since October 2023, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.595%, marking its peak since February 2023 [1]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the Republican tax plan could increase the deficit to about 7% of GDP, an unprecedented level for a low-unemployment economy [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Concerns - The rising interest rates mean the government will need to allocate more funds to cover interest payments on nearly $29 trillion in debt, potentially leading to higher taxes or reduced government services for citizens [4]. - The high-interest environment not only affects government finances but also increases borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, which could suppress economic activity [4]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - There is skepticism regarding whether the Trump administration will make significant fiscal adjustments, as Republican leaders believe that economic growth from tariffs and deregulation will offset revenue losses from tax cuts [5]. - Analysts suggest that there will be no substantial fiscal consolidation in the foreseeable future, and the U.S. is likely to continue running large deficits [5]. - The Trump administration's previous promises to address the deficit through significant spending cuts have been scaled back, with current Republican sentiment showing less concern for fiscal deficits compared to a decade ago [5].