Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0% in October, down 0.8 percentage points from September and matching the level seen in April 2025, during peak US-China trade tensions[1] - Production and new orders were the largest contributors to the decline, dragging down the PMI by 0.55 and 0.27 percentage points, respectively[1] - The manufacturing prices decreased, with raw material purchase prices and factory prices both dropping by 0.7 percentage points to 52.5% and 47.5%, respectively[2] Service Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly rebounded to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, but new orders fell by 0.7 percentage points to 46.0%[3] - The gap between the business activity index and new orders widened to 4.2, the highest since October 2024, indicating persistent demand weakness[3] Construction Sector - The construction sector saw new orders rebound by 3.7 percentage points to 45.9%, marking the second consecutive month of increase, although the business activity index fell slightly to 49.1%[4] - The rebound in construction PMI was primarily driven by civil engineering projects related to infrastructure, with business activity index rising over 5 percentage points to above 55%[4] Economic Outlook - The overall composite PMI for October was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from September, the lowest since early 2023[5] - The need for monetary policy support is increasing as the economy shows signs of continued slowdown, with GDP growth at 4.8% in Q3[5] Policy Measures - In October, significant policy measures were implemented, including the rapid deployment of 500 billion yuan in policy development financial tools and the resumption of government bond trading[6] - The likelihood of further monetary easing, including potential rate cuts, is rising, with expectations for a possible reduction in reserve requirements and structural interest rate cuts[6] Market Implications - The liquidity-driven bull market characteristics remain evident, with a lack of momentum for a shift towards cyclical and consumer sectors, suggesting continued focus on technology and dividend stocks[7] - Structural risks persist, with high transaction concentration and elevated stock prices, indicating an increased probability of market volatility[7]

Core Insights - National general public budget revenue for the first three quarters reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the first eight months [1] - Tax revenue for the first three quarters was 132,664 billion yuan, up 0.7% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue decreased by 0.4% to 31,212 billion yuan [2] - General public budget expenditure for the first three quarters was 208,064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with central government expenditure rising by 7.3% and local government expenditure increasing by 2.4% [2] Revenue Breakdown - Central government general public budget revenue was 70,837 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, while local government revenue was 93,039 billion yuan, up 1.8% [1] - Government fund budget revenue for the first three quarters was 30,717 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, with central government fund revenue increasing by 0.7% and local government fund revenue decreasing by 0.6% [5] Expenditure Insights - Social security and employment expenditure, agricultural and forestry expenditure, and energy conservation and environmental protection expenditure saw significant growth, increasing by 10%, 9%, and 8.8% respectively [3] - The Ministry of Finance plans to expedite the use of special bonds and other financial tools to support major project construction and address issues like debt defaults [5][6] Policy Considerations - The Ministry of Finance will continue to advance the 2026 new local government debt limit, focusing on major strategic projects and addressing hidden debt issues [6] - Market expectations for growth stabilization policies have increased, with a focus on fiscal priorities beyond infrastructure, including childcare subsidies and urban renewal [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of local government bonds as a macroeconomic adjustment tool, suggesting an acceleration in the use of local debt expenditures and the issuance of replacement quotas for the following year to stimulate domestic demand [1][2]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Characteristics and Trends - In 2025, local government bond issuance is expected to reach a record high, with a significant increase in the new debt limit and a notable advancement in the replacement schedule [2]. - The issuance of local government bonds is aimed at addressing fiscal deficits and promoting investment, particularly in real estate and government investment funds [2][3]. - The negative list management model has expanded the scope of special bonds, enhancing support for land reserves and the acquisition of idle land and existing housing for affordable housing [2]. Group 2: Structural Optimization and Expansion of Local Debt - Recommendations include optimizing the relationship between central and local governments to ensure sustainable fiscal and debt management [3]. - There is a call for a balanced approach between new debt and refinancing debt, ensuring that project construction and debt rollover needs are met [3]. - The establishment of a long-term regulatory system is necessary to balance quality and quantity throughout the debt cycle, with a focus on asset management and risk monitoring [3]. Group 3: Policy Development and Financial Tools - The report advocates for the accelerated use of special bonds and the early issuance of replacement quotas, with a focus on addressing public service shortfalls and boosting consumption [4]. - It suggests enhancing the coordination between special bonds, policy financial tools, and bank credit to effectively stimulate domestic demand and support economic development goals [4]. Group 4: Project Management and Funding Mechanisms - There is a proposal to optimize and broaden the scope of investment areas, including the establishment of a "positive encouragement list" for emerging sectors [5]. - The report emphasizes the need for a more rigorous project discovery and evaluation mechanism to increase the quality of project reserves [5]. - It also highlights the importance of improving funding management and establishing effective channels for information disclosure and risk monitoring [5].