Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Commodities mostly rose, and attention should be paid to the determination of policies. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds declined, and the listing benchmark price of propylene futures was set at 6,350 yuan/ton. Coal futures showed significant gains [1]. - In the medium to long term, A - shares have high investment value. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][12]. - The price of coking coal may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue their strong performance, but the risk of Trump's threat materializing needs to be watched [4][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Key News of the Day - **International News**: Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of U.S. industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and expected long - term high interest rates [5]. - **Domestic News**: China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year at 3.5%, which was in line with market expectations [6]. - **Industry News**: In June, China's total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative electricity consumption was 4,841.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.14%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.33%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.26%. Gold and silver in London showed significant increases, while some agricultural products such as ICE 11 - sugar and CBOT soybeans declined [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes mostly rose. The previous trading day's stock index also rose, with the building materials sector leading the gain and the banking sector leading the decline. The A - share market has high investment value in the medium to long term [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - end of Treasury bonds fell significantly. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of funds. The short - term market risk appetite increased, and the price volatility of Treasury bond futures may increase [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil futures fell 1.2% at night. U.S. refined oil demand decreased year - on - year, and the OPEC predicted an improvement in the global economy in the second half of the year [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures rose 0.79% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose. The supply side provided support, while the demand side was weak. The price is expected to rise slowly [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver strengthened again. The market's risk - aversion demand increased, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar and Treasury bond yields provided upward momentum [4][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed flat at night. The smelting output was under pressure, and the downstream demand was stable overall. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The concentrate processing fee increased, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The demand was in the peak season, but the inventory also increased. The short - term price may be strong, but there is no basis for a medium - term reversal [21]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global shipment decreased recently. The short - term macro - expectation was strong, and the iron ore price was expected to be strong [22][23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decline. The short - term steel price was expected to be strong [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of blast furnaces and coke improved, and the inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased. The price may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The U.S. and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, and the market's expectation of improved Sino - U.S. trade relations increased. The domestic supply was abundant, and the domestic soybean meal was expected to be strong in the short term [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures were weak at night. The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the demand for palm oil was strong. The overall oils and fats market was expected to fluctuate [27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract weakened at the end of the session. The SCFIS European line index declined. The European line was in the seasonal peak season, and the freight rate was expected to rise in August. Attention should be paid to the announcement of shipping company freight rates in August [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant financial policy announcement aimed at stabilizing the market and boosting expectations, reflecting a comprehensive approach to address both short-term and long-term economic challenges [2][4]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The central bank has lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5%, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [3][10]. - A reduction in the policy interest rate by 0.1% is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3][10]. - The introduction of a 5,000 billion yuan "service consumption and pension re-loan" aims to enhance credit support for service consumption and pension sectors [3][10]. - The expansion of the technology innovation re-loan by 3,000 billion yuan, increasing the total to 8,000 billion yuan, is designed to support technological advancements [3][10]. Group 2: Market Support - Eight new policies from the financial regulatory authority focus on stabilizing the real estate market, supporting small and micro enterprises, and enhancing foreign trade [4][10]. - The insurance sector's long-term investment pilot program is set to expand, with a proposed approval of 60 billion yuan to inject more capital into the market [10]. - The adjustment of regulatory rules aims to lower the investment risk factors for insurance companies, thereby supporting capital market stability [3][10]. Group 3: Capital Market Reforms - The article emphasizes the need for reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, including the revision of the major asset restructuring management measures for listed companies [5][10]. - The development of technology innovation bonds is highlighted, with efforts to simplify the issuance process and enhance credit support for these bonds [5][10]. - The focus on attracting more medium- and long-term funds into the market is underscored, with initiatives to optimize the market's funding structure [6][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the bond market is likely to experience fluctuations due to various factors, including the impact of recent policies on the real economy and potential fiscal policy changes [8][11]. - The stock market is expected to see structural opportunities, particularly in high-dividend stocks and sectors aligned with new productivity, such as artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing [14][17]. - The overall sentiment indicates that the current policies are aimed at fostering a resilient market ecosystem, balancing risk prevention with the promotion of transformation [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - Long-term funds are increasingly entering the capital market, acting as a stabilizer and ballast for healthy market operation [2] Group 1: Long-term Funds and Market Stability - The People's Bank of China has guided securities and fund companies to conduct two batches of swap operations, exceeding 100 billion yuan [2] - Over 400 listed companies have publicly disclosed stock repurchase and increase information, with a loan limit of nearly 80 billion yuan [2] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has initiated a second batch of pilot projects for long-term stock investments by insurance funds, with approvals of 52 billion yuan and 60 billion yuan recently [2] Group 2: Growth of Equity Funds - The development of equity funds has accelerated, with 459 equity funds registered from September last year to now, accounting for 70% of total registered fund products [3] - The scale of equity funds has increased from 6.3 trillion yuan to 7.7 trillion yuan, raising their proportion of total public fund scale from 20% to 24% [3] - A phased reduction in comprehensive fund fees is being promoted, expected to save investors over 45 billion yuan annually [3] Group 3: Market Capitalization and Net Inflows - The market capitalization of A-shares held by various long-term funds has grown from 14.6 trillion yuan to 17.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 22% [4] - From September last year to now, insurance funds and various pension funds have net bought approximately 290 billion yuan in the A-share market, significantly supporting market stabilization [5]