投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量下降，热卷产量上升，五大品种产量环比上升，整体库存继续回落，但热卷的库存仍明显高于历年同期 ，螺纹 去库压力相对较小，热卷库存的压力更大。本周表观需求整体温和回落。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂减产幅度可能会超过正 常季节性的减产规模，从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱迹象 ，钢材成本支撑减弱。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需 双弱，且库存压力仍大，但市场对政策面预期增强。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，期价低位震荡上行，创近一个月高点，有可能形成向上的突破， 需密切关注 05 合约的走势。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待充分调整后做多。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3134 | 24 | 0.77% | 45 | 1.46% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. Policy expectations support the stock index. Once there is a clear signal of policy benefits, the stock index may break through and rise [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view reference is oscillating strongly, with the core logic being the increasing expectation of the policy side [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that the stock index rose comprehensively yesterday. The stock market trading volume was 1364.4 billion yuan, 171.4 billion yuan more than the previous day. This was due to the stable external news during the holiday, the return of funds to the stock market, the good high - frequency data of travel during the holiday, the high possibility of macro - economic recovery, the continuous allocation of A - shares by funds like Central Huijin, the weakening of the manufacturing PMI in April indicating increasing policy measures for stable growth, and the stock index being at the position of the gap in early April, which will oscillate around the current point. Policy expectations support the stock index, and it will be oscillating strongly in the short term [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view for the financial futures stock index sector is that the index futures are expected to operate with a bias towards strength in an oscillatory manner. The short - term view for IH2506 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a bias towards strength, with an overall view of range - bound oscillation. For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillatory with a bias towards strength, and the medium - term view is oscillatory [1][4]. - The core logic is that the 4 - month manufacturing PMI released last Wednesday was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that external demand decline has disturbed the macro - economy. The policy expectation is expected to heat up after the May Day holiday, and the market's cautious sentiment will fade, with trading volume in the stock market expected to pick up. It is expected that the index futures will break through the gap in early April and continue to rebound [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory with a bias towards strength, and the overall view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is the co - existence of positive policy expectations and external uncertainties [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillatory with a bias towards strength, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with an overall view of range - bound oscillation. The 4 - month manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating external demand decline disturbing the macro - economy. Policy expectation is expected to heat up after the May Day holiday, and market sentiment is expected to recover, with index futures expected to operate with a bias towards strength in an oscillatory manner [4].