截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为774.92元/克，下跌0.42%。 国际黄金价格报3337.1美元/盎司，上涨0.01%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 关税政策 特朗普政府的关税政策是金价波动重要驱动因素。他威胁对欧盟、墨西哥等征收高额关税，引发市场对 全球贸易格局担忧。欧盟准备报复性关税，关税升温或加剧通胀，利好黄金。但短期内市场观望情绪使 金价承压，投资者等待政策细节和经济数据明确方向。当地时间周二晚，特朗普称将对小国发关税信 函，税率或略高于10%，为金价提供避险支撑。 通胀数据与美联储政策 美国6月CPI环比涨幅为1月以来最大，核心CPI年化通胀率上升，市场对美联储降息预期略有调整，年 底前降息约44个基点，9月降息概率降至53%。鲍威尔对通胀警惕，意味着美联储降息或谨慎。通胀数 据温和上升未超预期，使美元指数创近三周新高，美债收益率升至6周高位，打压金价，但市场认为美 元上涨可能是技术性调整，黄金仍有回暖空间。 市场情绪与技术面 黄金市场多空交织，短期波动频繁。技术面显示，关键点位如3375美元构成强压，多次冲击未破；3330 - 3350美元区间是重要支撑 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Group 1: Policy Impact - The policy measures implemented in May, including the issuance of long-term special government bonds and significant real estate reforms, are expected to show effects in June, but the market's recovery may be gradual [4] - Key factors to watch in June include the speed of the special government bond projects and the volume of second-hand housing transactions in core cities, which will determine the effectiveness of the policy measures [4] Group 2: Capital Market Dynamics - Northbound capital saw a significant inflow of nearly 30 billion in May, primarily driven by technical adjustments related to MSCI, but the strong dollar limits further foreign capital inflow [5] - Domestic stock funds have reached a high position of 87.2%, indicating limited room for further investment, while private equity positions have also risen to 76% [5] - Margin trading remains low at 1.53 trillion, and retail investor sentiment is cautious, leading to a market characterized by stock rotation rather than new capital inflow [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently in a critical range between 3050 and 3150, with 3050 acting as strong support and 3150 as significant resistance [6] - A breakout above 3150 could open up upward potential, while failure to do so may lead to a retreat back to 3050, with trading volume being a crucial factor [6] Group 4: External Variables - The upcoming FOMC meeting on June 12 is critical, as any indication of limited interest rate cuts could pressure global risk assets, including the A-share market [7] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding new tariffs on electric vehicles, may also impact the performance of the new energy sector [7] Group 5: Investment Strategy - A defensive approach is recommended for June, with a suggested position of around 50%, gradually taking profits above 3150 and buying near 3050 [8] - High-dividend sectors such as electricity (Yangtze Power), coal (China Shenhua), and banking (China Merchants Bank) are seen as safe havens in a volatile market [10] - Growth sectors supported by policy, such as new energy vehicles (CATL, BYD) and semiconductor equipment (SMIC), are also highlighted as areas of potential investment [10]

期货热点追踪 技术面推动大豆价格反弹，出口数据不佳难挡即将到来的天气炒作，价格未来仍有上涨空间？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. Policy expectations support the stock index. Once there is a clear signal of policy benefits, the stock index may break through and rise [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view reference is oscillating strongly, with the core logic being the increasing expectation of the policy side [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that the stock index rose comprehensively yesterday. The stock market trading volume was 1364.4 billion yuan, 171.4 billion yuan more than the previous day. This was due to the stable external news during the holiday, the return of funds to the stock market, the good high - frequency data of travel during the holiday, the high possibility of macro - economic recovery, the continuous allocation of A - shares by funds like Central Huijin, the weakening of the manufacturing PMI in April indicating increasing policy measures for stable growth, and the stock index being at the position of the gap in early April, which will oscillate around the current point. Policy expectations support the stock index, and it will be oscillating strongly in the short term [5]

黄金作为重要的避险资产和投资工具，其价格波动受多种因素综合影响。4月30日金价暴跌并非单一因素导致，而是市场对宏观经济、地缘 政治、资金流向及技术面等多方面因素的综合反应。 | 黄金品种 | 今日休暇 | 涨跌幅度 | 更新时间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际金价(美元/盎司) | 3312.12 | -4.94 | 10:31:26 | | 国际金价(人民币/克) | 774.05 | -1.15 | 10:31:26 | | XAU现货黄金价格 | 3312.12 | -4.94 | 10:31:26 | | 伦敦金黄金价格 | 3312.12 | -4.94 | 10:31:26 | | comex纽约黄金期货价格 | 3320.59 | -13.01 | 10:31:26 | | 上海AU9999黄金价格 | 782.36 | 0.67 | 10:31:26 | 一、宏观经济数据向好，削弱避险需求 二、地缘政治风险缓和，避险情绪降温 美国经济数据超预期 4月30日前后，美国公布的多项经济数据（如GDP增速、消费者信心指数、制造业PMI等）表现强劲，暗示经济韧性增强，通 ...