Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the new energy vehicle market operated smoothly, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 0.945 million vehicles respectively, and exports of 0.302 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 100%. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, both supply and demand decreased, and it is expected that both supply and demand will increase in March. In the short term, the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises is basically completed, and the pre - holiday market may be dull, fluctuating in the range of 130,000 - 150,000. It is recommended to control risks before the festival due to the battery rush - export demand at the end of the quarter [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 143,750 yuan, up 1,250 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 140,250 yuan, up 1,250 yuan [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 2,000 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 3,125 yuan, up 60 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 4,640 yuan, up 65 yuan; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 13,340 yuan, up 90 yuan; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 14,300 yuan, up 100 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 52,015 yuan, up 305 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 200,850 yuan, up 400 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 176,400 yuan, up 400 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 177,900 yuan, up 500 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 8,890 yuan, down 1,970 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 1,740 yuan, down 160 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 2,140 yuan, down 720 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 102,932 tons, down 2,531 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 16,920 tons, down 1,436 tons; the inventory of downstream enterprises (weekly, tons) is 44,492 tons, up 835 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 41,520 tons, down 1,930 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 38,759 tons, up 1,477 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 145,499 yuan, and the profit is - 3,706 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 142,147 yuan, and the profit is - 3,742 yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The new energy vehicle market in China is experiencing stable operations, with domestic sales declining while exports are growing rapidly [1]. Group 1: Production and Sales Data - In January 2026, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.041 million and 945,000 units respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 0.1% [2]. - The domestic sales of new energy vehicles in January 2026 were 643,000 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 18.9% and a month-on-month decline of 54.4% [3]. Group 2: Export Performance - In January 2026, new energy vehicle exports totaled 302,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 100% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5% [6].

红星资本局2月13日消息，小米集团（01810.HK）董事长雷军宣布，自2024年4月3日以来，小米汽车累 计交付量已超过60万台。他同时表示，新一代小米SU7的展车已经到店。 2月12日，雷军发文称，小米YU7今年1月的销量达37869台。按照第三方平台的排行榜，小米YU7为1月 乘用车零售销量冠军。他表示："这个排名含金量很高，不带任何定义，不论能源形式，不论价钱，不 论SUV/轿车。" 红星资本局注意到，如果以批发销量为统计口径，小米YU7排名第五。 乘联分会2月12日公布的《2026年1月份全国乘用车市场分析》显示，1月乘用车批发销量超2万辆的车型 有17个（上月27个），比亚迪宋为42227辆、吉利星愿为41676辆、博越为41296辆、特斯拉Model Y为 38916辆、小米YU7为37869辆。 1月全国乘用车市场零售154.4万辆，同比下降13.9%。其中自主品牌零售89万辆，同比下降18%；主流 合资品牌零售47万辆，同比下降4%；豪华车零售18万辆，同比下降15%。 1月新能源乘用车市场零售59.6万辆，同比下降20.0%；1月常规燃油乘用车零售94.8万辆，同比下降 10%。1月新能源 ...

更惊人的是贸易额数据：今年1月，中国对巴西的汽车出口额飙升至3.75亿美元，是去年同期的10倍以上，占当月巴西汽车进口总额的65%左右。 这意味着现在巴西每进口10辆汽车，就有6.5辆来自中国。这个比例放在几年前是不敢想象的。 中国车企在巴西市场的扩张很有"章法"，简单来说就是直接在巴西投资建设生产基地，实现"本地制造、本地销售"。同时通过与国际巨头合作， 快速获得市场准入与技术认可——"强强联合，借势突围"。 比如，比亚迪投资了55亿雷亚尔（约合10.6亿美元）改造巴伊亚州的福特卡马萨里原装配厂，计划采用半散件组装工艺。吉利控股去年底与法国 雷诺集团宣布在巴西成立合资公司，计划投资38亿雷亚尔，共同开发和生产新能源车型。 不过，现在的巴西汽车市场也可以说是"冰火两重天"。巴西当地利率上升和信贷紧缩影响了借贷成本，导致1月份汽车产量与销量均有下滑。但与 此同时，电动汽车的销量占比创纪录地达到了16.8%，表明巴西消费者对新能源汽车的接受度正在快速提升。 今年1月，中国汽车在巴西市场干了一件大事——直接把阿根廷从巴西"最大汽车出口国"的宝座上拉了下来。对当地来说，这可一点不简单，它意 味着南美洲最大的汽车市场正 ...

免责声明 碳酸锂产业日报 2026/2/3 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 148,100.00 | +15660.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -141,369.00 | +9954.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 355,770.00 | +8072.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 900.00 | -3520.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 33,084.00 | +843.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 153,500.00 | -2000.00↓ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 150,000.00 | -2000.00↓ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | 5,400.00 | -17660.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 2,020.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market has experienced a short - term adjustment. The dollar index has strengthened recently, cooling the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market, and the copper futures market has also corrected. The market's expectation of a copper supply shortage outside the US has eased, and the demand forecast has been significantly revised downwards, resulting in a temporary lack of growth momentum for copper. However, the copper fundamentals remain tight. Short - term weak demand does not represent the overall strong demand, and there is a downward trend in the mining and smelting sectors. With the continuous implementation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies, copper is mainly in a phased correction [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: In December, the US CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month as expected, and the core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected, increasing the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in April. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the short term, and the dollar has strengthened recently. The domestic central bank has lowered the re - lending rate for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 0.25 percentage points since January 19. The annual RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 8.5% year - on - year [2]. - **Supply - aspect**: Trump decided not to impose tariffs on rare earths, lithium, and other key minerals. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, narrowing smelter profits and weakening spot processing fees. Smelters plan to cut production this year. The production of refined copper is expected to decline in January, with 5 smelters planning to stop production and 1 planned smelter delaying its commissioning. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper, but both upstream and downstream are cautious, and raw material procurement volume is poor [2]. - **Demand - aspect**: Downstream copper buyers have low enthusiasm, leading to a significant increase in copper inventory. The terminal new - energy market performs poorly, with retail sales of new - energy vehicles from January 1 to 11 being 117,000 units, a 38% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in 2025 and a 67% decline compared to the same period in December 2025. However, short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend. Policy subsidies and the upcoming New Year small peak season are expected to improve production and sales. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises are on holiday, and copper product buyers are cautious [2]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly. The weekly high was 105,650 yuan/ton, the low was 100,060 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 5.51%, and the range increase/decrease was - 0.63% [4]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of January 19, the average spot premium/discount in East China was - 100 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 85 yuan/ton. Domestic copper inventory continues to accumulate, and the spot remains at a discount. With downstream enterprises about to enter the holiday period, procurement demand slows down, and it is expected to continue trading at a discount [9]. 3.4 London Copper Spread Structure - As of January 16, LME copper fell 0.5% during the week, closing at $12,925/ton, with a spot premium of $75/ton [14]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - In November 2025, China imported 2.526 million tons of copper ore and concentrates; from January to November, the import volume was 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. It is expected that in December 2025, China will import 2.6 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, with an annual import volume of 30.26 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43% and an expected increase of 2.094 million physical tons. The new collective - agreement negotiation at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile is at a standstill, and the strike continues to affect copper production [19]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply - In November 2025, the scrap - copper import volume was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.92%; from January to November, the cumulative scrap - copper import volume was 2.104 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. According to SMM data, the operating rate of recycled copper rods this week was 13.52%, an increase of 0.53% from last week. After the Shanghai copper price corrected last week, recycled - copper enterprises made low - price purchases to fulfill historical orders. With the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper, but both upstream and downstream are cautious, and raw material procurement volume is poor [24]. 3.7 Smelter Fees - As of January 16, the domestic spot rough - smelting fee (TC) was - 46.6 dollars/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.84 cents/pound, with TC/RC fees remaining weakly stable. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, narrowing smelter profits. The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) announced that its members will jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. On December 19, Chinese copper - smelter representatives and international mining giant Antofagasta finalized the 2026 copper - concentrate long - term processing fee (Benchmark) at $0/ton and $0 cents/pound, a historic "zero" compared to $21.25/ton and 2.125 cents/pound in 2025 [28]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply - In December, SMM's Chinese electrolytic - copper production increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month, an increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. From January to December, the cumulative production increased by 1.372 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.38%. After some smelters stopped production earlier, they gradually resumed production this month. The production of refined copper is expected to decline in January, with 5 smelters planning to stop production and 1 planned smelter delaying its commissioning. According to customs data, in November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to November, the import volume was 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [32]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of November 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.2681 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous month [36]. 3.10 Sub - industry Production Forecast - Mysteel predicts that in January 2026, the开工 rate of sample copper - tube enterprises will slightly increase, with a production of about 147,500 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 63.66%, a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. The expected production of domestic electrolytic copper foil is 108,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83%. The expected copper - rod 开工 rate will drop to 51.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.62 percentage points [40]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of November 2025, the national cumulative power - generation installed capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Among them, the solar - power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the wind - power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%; the hydropower installed capacity was 440 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 3%; and the nuclear - power installed capacity was 60 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 7.6% [44]. 3.12 Real - Estate and Infrastructure Data - According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 39.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.58%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 880.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 44.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.24% [50]. 3.13 Automobile/New - Energy Automobile Industry Data - In the new - energy passenger - vehicle sector, from January 1 to 11, retail sales were 117,000 units, a 38% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in 2025 and a significant 67% decline compared to the same period in December 2025. However, short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend. Policy subsidies and the upcoming New Year small peak season are expected to improve production and sales. Since January 1, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax has changed from exemption to half - collection. On December 30, the "Notice on Implementing the Policy of Large - Scale Equipment Upgrades and Consumer Goods Trade - ins in 2026" was issued, stating that the "trade - in" subsidies for heavy trucks and buses will continue, with the subsidy scope and standards remaining the same as in 2025. The subsidy for passenger cars has changed from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy, with the subsidy ceiling unchanged, and the subsidy amount for low - price cars has decreased, which will offset part of the decline caused by the increase in purchase tax [56]. 3.14 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - As of January 16, LME copper inventory increased by 4,600 tons to 143,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.83%. COMEX copper inventory was 542,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78% and a year - on - year increase of 465.67%. Trump's statement last week that he will temporarily not impose tariffs on other key minerals has postponed the collection of refined - copper tariffs, weakening the siphon effect on US copper, but COMEX copper inventory still increased. On January 15, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 117,500 tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased as some warehouse goods left the port for export and a few enterprises imported through processing manuals. As of January 16, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 160,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41%; the cathode - copper inventory was 213,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.26%, showing a significant inventory - accumulation trend [61][66].

2025年股价涨幅近430%的天际股份（SZ002759，股价45.15元，市值226.4亿元），在1月15日晚间发布 2025年度业绩预告：预计2025年归母净利润7000万~1.05亿元，上年同期亏损约13.61亿元；预计2025年 扣非净利润为6000万~9000万元，上年同期亏损约13.73亿元。 同时，天际股份子公司常熟新特化工有限公司（下称新特化工）的主要产品次磷酸钠的市场行情亦在 2025年第四季度好转——销售价格上升、毛利率提高，结束了该主要产品亏损的局面，对公司整体业绩 亦有重要贡献。 虽然新特化工2025年第四季度盈利能力有所恢复，但仍未完成2025 年业绩目标，根据新特化工的业绩 承诺及收购协议，新特化工原股东应补偿上市公司相应差额，补偿金额计入非经常性损益。同时，公司 从谨慎性原则出发，经初步测试需计提部分商誉减值。 据Wind金融终端，"六氟磷酸锂指数"在2025年4月上旬见底后，开启了一波大行情。2025年4月9日至11 月17日，该指数在7个月时间内累计上涨167.2%。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股东 的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices have surged, reaching a high of 174,060 yuan/ton, indicating strong market demand and potential implications for electric vehicle pricing [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of January 12, the average price of lithium carbonate has increased from 90,000 yuan/ton in November to 153,400 yuan/ton [3]. - The closing price for lithium carbonate futures was reported at 166,980 yuan/ton, reflecting a 7.44% increase [1]. - The trading volume for lithium carbonate futures was 60,820 contracts, with a total turnover of 493 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - Analysts suggest that the rising prices of lithium carbonate may not lead to immediate increases in electric vehicle prices, as manufacturers are likely to absorb cost pressures to maintain market share [3]. - The retail sales forecast for new energy vehicles in 2025 is projected at 12.809 million units, a 17.6% increase year-on-year [5]. - The overall passenger vehicle market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with a predicted 1% increase in wholesale sales [5]. Group 3: Future Demand and Regulation - Multiple institutions predict that global demand for lithium carbonate will continue to grow, providing long-term support for prices [6]. - Regulatory measures have been introduced to manage market volatility, including restrictions on certain trading activities [8]. - The government is focusing on regulating the lithium battery industry to prevent issues such as overcapacity and price wars, which are crucial for the stability of the energy transition [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese passenger car market is expected to see retail sales of 23.74 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, with wholesale volume reaching 29.55 million units, up 8.8%, driven significantly by the growth of new energy vehicles (NEVs) [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - In 2025, the wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles is projected to be 15.32 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.2%, while retail sales are expected to reach 12.81 million units, up 17.6%, achieving a retail penetration rate of 54% [1] - The new energy segment is identified as the most reliable source of growth in the passenger car market, with December 2025 showing a wholesale volume of 1.563 million units, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Segmentation - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is nearing 60%, indicating a shift towards a "new energy-dominated" market phase, with new energy vehicles growing at a rate 32.6 percentage points higher than traditional fuel vehicles [2] - In December 2025, retail sales of pure electric vehicles reached 782,000 units, maintaining positive growth, while range-extended models saw a higher growth rate of 15.4% year-on-year [2] - The market share of new energy vehicles from new force brands increased, with pure electric and range-extended models' share shifting from 59%:41% in 2024 to 71%:29% in 2025 [2] Group 3: Brand Performance and Export Trends - New force brands captured a retail market share of 23.5% in December 2025, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, with traditional independent brands performing strongly [3] - The export of passenger vehicles reached 588,000 units in December 2025, a 46.2% increase, with new energy vehicles accounting for 46.4% of total exports, marking a 15.6 percentage point increase [3] - Pure electric vehicles constituted 57.9% of new energy vehicle exports, with A00 and A0 class models making up 68% of pure electric vehicle exports [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall growth rate for China's new energy vehicle market is projected to be around 10% in 2026 [4]

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - In November, the domestic passenger car market faced pressure, with retail sales reaching 2.225 million units, a year-on-year decline of 8.1% and a month-on-month decline of 1.1% [1] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) market, however, showed resilience with sales of 1.321 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.0%, achieving a penetration rate of over 59% [1] Group 2: Segment Performance - The sedan market saw retail sales of 1.007 million units, down 10.0% year-on-year and slightly down 1.5% month-on-month, with NEV sedans becoming a key growth point [4] - The MPV market was the weakest segment, with retail sales of 86,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 16.8% and a slight month-on-month increase of 1.0% [4] - The SUV market, while also facing year-on-year declines, performed better than sedans and MPVs, with retail sales of 1.132 million units, down 5.6% year-on-year and down 0.9% month-on-month; NEV SUVs sold 683,000 units, up 12.5% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Brand Performance - Among the top ten manufacturers, five were domestic brands, capturing 61% of the total market sales; domestic brands sold 1.49 million units, down 4% year-on-year, while joint venture brands sold 490,000 units, down 19% [4] - BYD led the sales with 306,561 units, although it experienced a year-on-year decline of 26.5% [7] - Geely ranked second with sales of 268,337 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, becoming the fastest-growing company among the top brands [9] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The German brands, particularly FAW-Volkswagen, maintained a stable performance in the shrinking joint venture market, with retail sales of 137,500 units [5] - SAIC Volkswagen's sales were 86,857 units, down 29.3% year-on-year, but it still retained a solid base in the fuel vehicle market [6] - New entrants like Hongmeng Zhixing and Xiaomi Auto showed significant growth, with Hongmeng Zhixing achieving a year-on-year increase of 95.2% [11][18] Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a phase of aggressive sales push in December, with domestic brands likely to maintain their lead in the NEV sector [18] - The competition is shifting from traditional product competition to a focus on technological strength and product quality, indicating a trend towards high-quality development in the automotive industry [18]