2025.12. 08 11月，在厂商零售销量出现同环比下滑的背景下，车市生产和批发销量仍保持着同环比增长，这也导致 出现了经销商被动加库存的现象，11月乘用车厂商总体库存增长6万辆（去年同期下降22万辆）。 本文字数：861，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 葛慧 12月8日，乘联分会公布的最新数据显示，11月全国乘用车市场零售222.5万辆，同比下降8.1%，环 比下降1.1%。车市年底难现"翘尾行情"。 根据过往数据的梳理，这是2023年来车市零售销量首次出现同比负增长。这样的同比下降趋势，较10 月的0.5%的同比降幅有所扩大。 今年调节车市销量增速的重要政策是以旧换新补贴。截至10月22日，2025年汽车以旧换新补贴申请量 突破千万辆，前11个月申请量已达1120万辆。乘联分会认为，随着各地补贴的大面积暂停，11月的日 均补贴规模降到3万辆。 在报废更新、置换更新叠加新能源免征购置税等政策利好下，11月新能源车国内零售渗透率59.3%， 较去年同期提升7个百分点，再创新高。从细分市场来看，11月纯电动市场成为唯一的增长亮点，纯电 动市场零售同比增长9.2%，增程同比下降4.3%，插混同比下降2 ...

今年调节车市销量增速的重要政策是以旧换新补贴。截至10月22日，2025年汽车以旧换新补贴申请量突破千 万辆，前11个月申请量已达1120万辆。乘联分会认为，随着各地补贴的大面积暂停，11月的日均补贴规模降 到3万辆。 在报废更新、置换更新叠加新能源免征购置税等政策利好下，11月新能源车国内零售渗透率59.3%，较去年 同期提升7个百分点，再创新高。从细分市场来看，11月纯电动市场成为唯一的增长亮点，纯电动市场零售同 比增长9.2%，增程同比下降4.3%，插混同比下降2.8%，燃油车国内零售同比下降22%；新势力中的纯电动与 增程的结构占比，从去年11月的57%：43%变为73%：27%。 不过，乘联分会同时提示称，今年12月共有23个工作日，较去年同期多一天，较11月的20个工作日多3天，12 月生产销售时间相对充裕。受车购税免税到期政策的影响，消费者年末购车紧迫感更强，因而选择车型更考 虑提车进度。由于热销车型的购买排队，很多消费者转而购买平销车型。 年底翘尾行情没了？ 12月8日，乘联分会公布的最新数据显示，11月全国乘用车市场零售222.5万辆，同比下降8.1%，环比下降 1.1%。车市年底难现"翘尾 ...

Core Insights - In September, China's passenger car retail sales reached a record high of 2.241 million units, marking a 6.3% year-on-year increase and surpassing the previous record of 2.19 million units set in September 2017 by 50,000 units, indicating strong growth before the end of year policy withdrawal [1][4] Retail Sales Performance - The retail sales of passenger cars in September included 1.018 million sedans, 1.131 million SUVs, and 224.1 million narrow passenger vehicles, with a total of 2.266 million broad passenger vehicles sold [2] - Cumulative retail sales from January to September reached 17.005 million units, reflecting a 9.2% year-on-year growth [4] Brand Performance - Domestic brands continued to show high growth, with retail sales of 1.5 million units in September, a 13% year-on-year increase and a 12.9% month-on-month increase, capturing a market share of 66.9% [5][6] - In the top five manufacturers by retail sales in September, four were domestic brands, with BYD leading at 347,000 units, followed by Geely, Changan, and Chery [5] Export and Wholesale Trends - In September, China's passenger car exports reached 528,000 units, a 20.7% year-on-year increase, with domestic brands accounting for 463,000 units of this total [6] - The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in September was 1.5 million units, a 22.4% year-on-year increase, with pure electric vehicles (BEVs) making up 63% of the total [12] Market Dynamics - The market is shifting towards reduced price cuts and stable promotions, with 23 models seeing price reductions in September compared to 36 in the previous year [7][8] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 57.8% in September, up 5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a stable growth driven by policies and market dynamics [8] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "Silver September, Golden October" trend, with October's performance anticipated to surpass that of September [4][13] - The upcoming adjustments to the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy in 2026 are expected to stimulate consumer purchases towards the end of the year, contributing to a slight positive growth in the fourth quarter [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.269 million units from June 1 to June 22, representing a year-on-year increase of 24% and an 8% increase compared to the previous month [1] - Cumulative retail sales for the year have reached 10.086 million units, showing an 11% year-on-year growth [1] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) during the same period totaled 691,000 units, marking a 38% year-on-year increase and an 11% increase from the previous month, with a market penetration rate of 54.5% [1] - Cumulative NEV retail sales for the year stand at 5.049 million units, reflecting a 35% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2 - According to Galaxy Securities, the combination of domestic demand and exports is expected to drive a 6.7% increase in annual passenger car sales [1] - The sales proportion of vehicles priced below 300,000 yuan is anticipated to continue rising, with "high-level intelligent driving equality" further concentrating the competitive landscape [1] - Supportive policies such as trade-in programs, NEV promotion in rural areas, and the expiration of the tax exemption for NEVs at the end of the year are expected to bolster domestic demand [1] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with increased costs related to intelligent driving technology and a focus on R&D capabilities among automakers [1] Group 3 - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the passenger car sector, recommending BYD (002594) and Li Auto-W, with beneficiaries including Geely, Xpeng, and Leap Motor [2] - In the motorcycle sector, recommended beneficiaries include Chunfeng Power (603129) and Longxin General (603766) [2] - For commercial vehicles, beneficiaries include China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951) and Yutong Bus (600066) [2] - In the intelligent components sector, recommended companies include Sutech (002920), Desay SV (002920), and others [2] - The humanoid robot sector highlights Top Group (601689) and Jingzhan Technology (300258) as recommended companies, with additional beneficiaries listed [2]