证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 确成股份(605183) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 张燕生 化工行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500517050001 联系电话：010-83326847 邮箱：zhangyansheng@cindasc.com 洪英东 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500520080002 联系电话：010-83326848 邮箱：hongyingdong@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 无惧上下游波动，销量创单季度新高 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 22 日 [Table_S 事件：8ummar 月 21y]日，确成股份发布 2025 年半年报。 公司 2025 年上半年收入 11.12 亿元，同比+3.87%；归母净利润 2.76 亿元， 同比+5.44%；扣非归母净利润 2.7 ...

Core Insights - Feilong Automotive Parts Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 2.16 billion yuan and a net profit of 210 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.49% [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Among the 10 listed companies, 8 achieved year-on-year revenue growth, and 6 reported an increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [2] - Five companies, including Shentong Technology and Juzan Optoelectronics, experienced both revenue and net profit growth [2] - Wohua Pharmaceutical's revenue reached 425 million yuan, up 7.64%, with net profit soaring by 303.16% to 44.68 million yuan due to focused management strategies [2][3] Group 2: Industry Trends - Shentong Technology's revenue grew by 22.46% to 816 million yuan, with net profit increasing by 111.09% due to internal management optimization and cost control [3] - The performance drivers for the listed companies are attributed to technological upgrades, structural demand, and cost optimization [3] - The automotive parts and integrated circuits sectors are benefiting from the rising penetration of new energy vehicles and the explosion of AI computing demand [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Companies like Changchuan Technology are planning to enhance R&D and product quality while expanding into international markets [3] - Juzan Optoelectronics reported revenues of 1.594 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 3.43% to 117 million yuan, and plans to focus on high-end product development [4] - The chemical industry, represented by Zhongyan Chemical, is facing challenges but is optimizing its development structure to ensure sustainable growth [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a closing price of 31.65 CNY as of July 10, 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The company has entered a pivotal point in its stamping customer structure, with the electroplating business catalyzing new growth. The goal is for the new energy business to account for 25% and 60% of total revenue by 2025 and 2030, respectively [1][3]. - The company has a strong foothold in the automotive stamping parts sector, expanding its customer base and national production capacity, which is expected to drive growth [2][3]. - The acquisition of the electroplating business has created a second growth curve, with the company becoming a key supplier in the precision electroplating sector, particularly in the power semiconductor field [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report focuses on the company, which has over 30 years of experience in the automotive parts industry, forming four main business segments: stamping parts, assembly parts, precision electroplating, and molds. The company has established solid partnerships with major automotive manufacturers [10][12]. 2. Stamping Parts and Electroplating Business - The company is a leading supplier of automotive stamping parts, leveraging its long-standing relationship with SAIC Group and expanding into new energy vehicle manufacturers like Tesla and Li Auto [20][32]. - The precision electroplating business, acquired in 2022, has significantly contributed to revenue and profit, with a projected contribution of 1.8 billion CNY in revenue and 1.1 billion CNY in net profit for 2024 [29][45]. 3. Industry Overview - The automotive stamping parts market is projected to reach approximately 270 billion CNY by 2025, with a CAGR of 2.6% from 2025 to 2030. The industry is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape [47][63]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for lightweight components in the automotive sector, driven by the rise of new energy vehicles, which is expected to enhance the market for stamping parts [46][63]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 35.2 billion CNY, 44.5 billion CNY, and 52.8 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits projected at 5.0 billion CNY, 6.5 billion CNY, and 8.0 billion CNY [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong management capabilities and cost control, which are expected to lead to sustained improvements in net profit margins [2][39].

Core Insights - The Chinese passenger car market achieved a record high in June, with wholesale sales reaching 2.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15% [1][2] - Intense price competition is escalating, particularly among brands like Geely, XPeng, and Leap Motor, which are offering deeper discounts compared to industry leader BYD [1][5] - The ability of automakers to halt price wars will be a focal point for market observers, especially under the backdrop of anti-involution policies [1][7] Sales Performance - June saw wholesale, retail, and production figures all hitting monthly records, with wholesale sales at 2.5 million units, retail deliveries at 2.1 million units (up 18% year-on-year), and production increasing by 13% [2][4] - Exports also reached a new high of 480,000 units, marking a 28% year-on-year increase [4] Price Competition - The report highlights that retail discounts have widened across brands, with Geely's discounts increasing by 3.1 percentage points, XPeng's by 3.5 percentage points, and Leap Motor's by 1.2 percentage points [5][6] - BYD's recent price adjustments have not matched the aggressive discounting strategies of its competitors [5][7] New Energy Vehicle Growth - New energy vehicles (NEVs) continue to show strong growth, with wholesale sales reaching 1.24 million units in June, a 27% year-on-year increase [8] - The penetration rate of electric vehicles remains high at 50% for June, contributing to a 9 percentage point increase year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [8] - BYD holds a 30% market share in the NEV sector, with June sales of 378,000 units, while Tesla reported sales of 72,000 units [8]

Core Insights - The insurance industry in China reported a total original insurance premium income of 3.06 trillion yuan in the first five months of 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.77% [1] - Life insurance premiums accounted for 2.45 trillion yuan, while property insurance premiums reached 612.9 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 3.72% and 3.97% [1] Life Insurance Performance - From January to May, life insurance companies generated original insurance premium income of 2.28 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [3] - In May alone, life insurance premiums reached 332.8 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of over 16% [3] - The life insurance segment, as a major part of personal insurance, saw a 3.9% year-on-year increase in premium income, with May's growth at 24.1%, indicating rising consumer demand for life insurance products [3][5] Health Insurance Trends - Health insurance premiums grew by only 0.9% year-on-year in the first five months, with May's income at 62.4 billion yuan, showing a shift from positive to negative growth [4] - Analysts suggest that the slowdown in health insurance premium growth is influenced by product structure transformation within the industry [4] Property Insurance Performance - Property insurance companies reported original insurance premium income of 780.5 billion yuan in the first five months, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [6] - Auto insurance remains a significant contributor, with premiums amounting to 372 billion yuan, accounting for nearly half of the total property insurance income [6] - The growth in auto insurance is supported by a 9.2% year-on-year increase in retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles, alongside a notable rise in the production and sales of new energy vehicles [6] Competitive Landscape - Leading insurance companies are focusing on upgrading agent quality and enhancing high-value savings product sales, which is expected to drive growth in premium income [4] - The competitive landscape is anticipated to improve as major property insurance firms leverage their scale and refined management to strengthen their market position [6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The lithium battery equipment industry is expected to experience new growth starting from Q3 2024, driven by increased penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) and supportive policies [2][4] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China reached 50% in 2024, significantly higher than Europe (20%) and the US (less than 10%) [4] - Major battery manufacturers like CATL and BYD are ramping up production, with CATL planning to expand its total capacity to 1,200 GWh by 2029 [2][5] Key Points on Major Companies CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) - CATL's existing capacity is approximately 676 GWh, with plans to add over 200 GWh in construction [5] - The company aims to increase its capacity utilization rate to around 90% by September 2024, indicating a near full production state [5] - CATL is focusing on overseas capacity expansion, including factories in Hungary, Germany, Spain, and Indonesia to support major automakers like BMW and Mercedes-Benz [5] BYD - BYD anticipates a sales increase of 35% to nearly 50% in 2025, with a production capacity plan of around 200 GWh [5] - The company has established production bases in Thailand, Indonesia, Hungary, and Brazil, indicating a comprehensive supply chain layout [5] Other Battery Manufacturers - Second and third-tier battery manufacturers like Honeycomb Energy, Zhongchuang Innovation, and Guoxuan High-Tech are expanding more cautiously, with lower capacity utilization and profitability compared to leading firms [6][7] - These companies are focusing on energy storage and overseas market expansion rather than aggressive production increases [6][8] Strategic Collaborations - The strategic partnership between CATL and XianDiao Intelligent has deepened, with transaction amounts in Q1 2025 nearing the total for 2022, and expected order growth of 20%-30% in 2025 [2][10] Financial Performance and Projections XianDiao Intelligent - XianDiao's order volume peaked at 26 billion yuan in 2022 but declined to 22.5 billion yuan in 2023 and is projected to recover to 24-26 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a significant recovery trend [11] - The company has seen a reduction in inventory and contract liabilities, with a positive cash flow trend starting from Q4 2024 [23][24] Profitability - XianDiao maintains a gross margin of around 35%, significantly higher than the industry average, with a net profit margin of nearly 12% in Q1 2025 [25][26] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of approximately 13 billion yuan in 2025, with potential profits of 1.5 billion yuan if net margins remain stable [26][27] Market Dynamics - European local battery manufacturers face limited competitiveness, with Chinese companies actively expanding in Europe to meet demand from automakers [9] - The expansion of overseas battery production is primarily driven by established players from Japan and South Korea, as well as new entrants from Europe and the US [12][15] Solid-State Battery Development - XianDiao is the only supplier capable of providing a complete production line for solid-state batteries, which is expected to drive significant growth [20][21][28] - The solid-state battery market presents a high-value opportunity, with individual units valued at over 400-500 million yuan [28] Conclusion - The lithium battery equipment industry is poised for growth, with major players like CATL and BYD leading the charge, while XianDiao Intelligent is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities in both traditional and solid-state battery markets [2][4][28]