本文字数：2263，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 后歆桐 日本央行今日（12月19日）以9：0一致通过自今年1月以来的首次加息操作，把基准利率上调至 0.75%，达到1995年以来的30年最高水平。日本央行并表示，预计实际利率将维持在显著地位，若经济 和物价前景与预期一致，将继续上调政策利率。 在日本央行即将召开议息会议的数小时前，日本总务省发布的数据显示，剔除生鲜食品的核心消费者价 格指数(CPI)11月同比上涨3%，意味着日本核心通胀指标连续第二个月稳定在3%，且已连续44个月站上 2%通胀目标之上，释放出物价压力持续高企的信号。 物价持续攀升已成为日本首相高市早苗面临的一大执政挑战。在她就任首相前，由于民众对生活成本高 企的不满情绪日益升温，其所属的执政党自民党已在两场全国性选举中受挫。为缓解民生压力，高市早 苗政府已推出一系列物价纾困措施，其中包括冬季电费补贴以及面向儿童群体的一次性现金补贴，相关 举措均被纳入政府经济刺激方案。 2026年将继续加息，步伐存分歧 接受媒体调查的50位经济学家一致预测，在日本央行持续推动货币政策向中性立场靠拢的背景下，最新 通胀数据或将令投资者进一步聚焦2026 ...

作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 日本央行今日（12月19日）以9：0一致通过自今年1月以来的首次加息操作，把基准利率上调至 0.75%，达到1995年以来的30年最高水平。 日本央行并表示，预计实际利率将维持在显著地位，若 经济和物价前景与预期一致，将继续上调政策利率。 2025.12. 19 本文字数：2263，阅读时长大约4分钟 在日本央行即将召开议息会议的数小时前，日本总务省发布的数据显示，剔除生鲜食品的核心消费者 价格指数(CPI)11月同比上涨3%，意味着日本核心通胀指标连续第二个月稳定在3%，且已连续44个 月站上2%通胀目标之上，释放出物价压力持续高企的信号。 物价持续攀升已成为日本首相高市早苗面临的一大执政挑战。在她就任首相前，由于民众对生活成本 高企的不满情绪日益升温，其所属的执政党自民党已在两场全国性选举中受挫。为缓解民生压力，高 市早苗政府已推出一系列物价纾困措施，其中包括冬季电费补贴以及面向儿童群体的一次性现金补 贴，相关举措均被纳入政府经济刺激方案。 2026年将继续加息，步伐存分歧 接受媒体调查的50位经济学家一致预测，在日本央行持续推动货币政策向中性立场靠拢的背景下， 最新通胀数据或 ...

日本央行今日（12月19日）以9：0一致通过自今年1月以来的首次加息操作，把基准利率上调至0.75%，达到1995 年以来的30年最高水平。 日本央行今日（12月19日）以9：0一致通过自今年1月以来的首次加息操作，把基准利率上调至0.75%，达到1995 年以来的30年最高水平。日本央行并表示，预计实际利率将维持在显著地位，若经济和物价前景与预期一致，将 继续上调政策利率。 日元、日债难两全 亚太早盘，美元对日元徘徊在155.59附近，距离11月创下的10个月低点157.90不远。当时市场对日本的财政状况感 到担忧，担心日本央行在加息方面落后于收益率曲线。而加息消息公布后，美元对日元迅速拉升40点。 摩根大通私人银行全球市场策略师唐宇轩表示，"基于日本基本面情况，日本央行早就应该加息了。但我们不认为 今日日本央行的加息举措，会引发日元反弹。日本当局会释放继续加息信号，但对于加息步伐仍将维持摸棱两可 态度，这可能导致美元对日元继续升值。在这种情况下，日本当局可能会面临市场信心危机，并被迫直接干预以 稳定货币。" 稍早，在美联储降息、日本央行加息的情况下，美元对日元在11月份反而一度突破157，距离 2024 ...

分析师指出，如果日本央行加息，可能导致日元套利交易平仓，一旦美元兑日元下跌且10年期美债收益 率升破约4.5%，将对英伟达（NVDA）、Meta（META）、微软（MSFT）等美国科技股及QQQ/长期债 券组合等久期资产构成压力。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 分析师指出，如果日本央行加息，可能导致日元套利交易平仓，一旦美元兑日元下跌且10年期美债收益 率升破约4.5%，将对英伟达（NVDA）、Meta（META）、微软（MSFT）等美国科技股及QQQ/长期债 券组合等久期资产构成压力。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

Group 1 - Japan's Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's remarks regarding Taiwan have severely damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations, leading to a significant decline in the atmosphere for personnel exchanges between the two countries. Economic experts in Japan estimate that a sharp reduction in Chinese tourist numbers could result in losses exceeding 2 trillion yen for Japan [1] - If the current state of Sino-Japanese relations persists for over a year, it could lead to a reduction of more than 2 trillion yen in Chinese tourist spending, which would have a substantial impact on Japan's tourism industry and local economies [1] - The Japanese government has approved a 21.3 trillion yen economic stimulus plan, which is the first major fiscal initiative under Prime Minister Takashi's administration. This plan includes 17.7 trillion yen in general account expenditures, marking a 27% increase from the previous year [21][24] Group 2 - The Japanese economy has entered a negative growth phase for the first time in six quarters, with a 0.4% decrease in real GDP for the third quarter of 2025, translating to an annualized decline of 1.8% [5][10] - Exports have seen a decline for the first time in six quarters, with a 1.2% drop in goods and services exports, largely attributed to increased tariffs imposed by the United States on Japanese automotive and manufacturing products [10][11] - Domestic demand has also been adversely affected, with private residential investment plummeting by 9.4%, nearly erasing the recovery gains made post-pandemic [10] Group 3 - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar has raised concerns, with the Japanese Finance Minister expressing worries about the rapid and one-sided decline of the yen, which has increased the cost of imported goods for households and small businesses [3] - The recent economic data has led to a significant sell-off in Japanese assets, with the 30-year government bond yield reaching a historical high, and the Nikkei 225 index erasing all gains since the new Prime Minister took office [5][13] - The market is reacting to the economic outlook, with the yen depreciating approximately 6% since the new administration took office, raising concerns about the credibility of Japan's fiscal policies [14][17] Group 4 - The tourism sector is facing a severe downturn, with over 540,000 flight cancellations to Japan since mid-November, leading to potential losses in the tourism industry amounting to trillions of yen [19][20] - Chinese tourists are a significant contributor to Japan's tourism revenue, accounting for approximately 30% of the total foreign travel spending in Japan, making the current decline particularly impactful [19] - The Japanese government has acknowledged that the optimistic economic forecasts are no longer sustainable, revising the GDP growth expectation for the fiscal year 2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7% [10][11]

11月17日，日本经济的"红灯"再度亮起。 日本三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算下降1.8%，自2024年第一季度以来再次出现负增长。同一时间，一场"抛售日本"的交易正悄然上演：30年 期国债收益率创下历史新高，日元汇率逼近160干预关口，日经225指数则一举抹去新任首相高市早苗上任以来的全部涨幅，股、债、汇"三杀"的罕见格局， 让全球投资者绷紧神经。 这场突如其来的困局并非偶然。外需端，美国关税升级让日本汽车等优势产业出口"急刹车"，三季度出口六个季度以来首降；内需端，民间住宅投资大跌 9.4%，几乎吞噬疫情后复苏成果。雪上加霜的是，中国赴日旅游遭遇"退订寒潮"，超54万张机票被取消，旅游业损失或达万亿日元。 11月21日，面对多重压力，高市内阁抛出21.3万亿日元刺激计划，却引发更大争议。市场将其与英国"特拉斯风暴"相提并论，担忧债务激增进一步动摇财政 根基。 日本GDP再度负增长，复苏势头几近抹去 在美国关税和内需疲软的双重夹击下，日本时隔六个季度再次陷入负增长。11月17日公布的数据显示，2025年三季度日本实际GDP环比下滑0.4%，折合年 率下降1.8%，明显弱于此前几个季度的复苏势头。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a $110 billion fiscal stimulus plan by the Japanese government has led to a significant sell-off of long-term Japanese bonds, resulting in the highest yields since the 2008 financial crisis, which may trigger a reversal of approximately $20 trillion in yen carry trades, posing a threat to global risk assets [1][3][6]. Group 1: Japanese Bond Market Reaction - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 1.78%, the highest level since June 2008, while the 30-year yield reached a historic high of 3.35% [3]. - A proposal for a supplementary budget exceeding 25 trillion yen (approximately $161 billion) was made to fund the stimulus plan, indicating a willingness to issue more bonds [3]. - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction reflects a lack of confidence in Japan's sovereign debt sustainability, with the debt burden at about 250% of GDP [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024 [4]. - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar, which fell below 155 yen for the first time since February, has raised concerns about rising import costs [5]. - The Japanese government is facing pressure to balance fiscal expansion with the need to support the yen, as further depreciation could exacerbate inflationary pressures [5]. Group 3: Global Market Impact - The potential unwinding of yen carry trades could lead to a tightening of global liquidity and a sell-off in risk assets, with correlations observed between carry trade unwinding and declines in the S&P 500 [6][7]. - Emerging market currencies may experience a 1% to 3% decline within 30 days due to the unwinding of these trades, while U.S. Treasury yields could rise by 15 to 40 basis points [7]. - The tightening of liquidity is expected to impact all risk assets, particularly technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, as investors begin to hedge against risks [7].