Group 1 - Japan's Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's remarks regarding Taiwan have severely damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations, leading to a significant decline in the atmosphere for personnel exchanges between the two countries. Economic experts in Japan estimate that a sharp reduction in Chinese tourist numbers could result in losses exceeding 2 trillion yen for Japan [1] - If the current state of Sino-Japanese relations persists for over a year, it could lead to a reduction of more than 2 trillion yen in Chinese tourist spending, which would have a substantial impact on Japan's tourism industry and local economies [1] - The Japanese government has approved a 21.3 trillion yen economic stimulus plan, which is the first major fiscal initiative under Prime Minister Takashi's administration. This plan includes 17.7 trillion yen in general account expenditures, marking a 27% increase from the previous year [21][24] Group 2 - The Japanese economy has entered a negative growth phase for the first time in six quarters, with a 0.4% decrease in real GDP for the third quarter of 2025, translating to an annualized decline of 1.8% [5][10] - Exports have seen a decline for the first time in six quarters, with a 1.2% drop in goods and services exports, largely attributed to increased tariffs imposed by the United States on Japanese automotive and manufacturing products [10][11] - Domestic demand has also been adversely affected, with private residential investment plummeting by 9.4%, nearly erasing the recovery gains made post-pandemic [10] Group 3 - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar has raised concerns, with the Japanese Finance Minister expressing worries about the rapid and one-sided decline of the yen, which has increased the cost of imported goods for households and small businesses [3] - The recent economic data has led to a significant sell-off in Japanese assets, with the 30-year government bond yield reaching a historical high, and the Nikkei 225 index erasing all gains since the new Prime Minister took office [5][13] - The market is reacting to the economic outlook, with the yen depreciating approximately 6% since the new administration took office, raising concerns about the credibility of Japan's fiscal policies [14][17] Group 4 - The tourism sector is facing a severe downturn, with over 540,000 flight cancellations to Japan since mid-November, leading to potential losses in the tourism industry amounting to trillions of yen [19][20] - Chinese tourists are a significant contributor to Japan's tourism revenue, accounting for approximately 30% of the total foreign travel spending in Japan, making the current decline particularly impactful [19] - The Japanese government has acknowledged that the optimistic economic forecasts are no longer sustainable, revising the GDP growth expectation for the fiscal year 2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7% [10][11]

11月17日，日本经济的"红灯"再度亮起。 日本三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算下降1.8%，自2024年第一季度以来再次出现负增长。同一时间，一场"抛售日本"的交易正悄然上演：30年 期国债收益率创下历史新高，日元汇率逼近160干预关口，日经225指数则一举抹去新任首相高市早苗上任以来的全部涨幅，股、债、汇"三杀"的罕见格局， 让全球投资者绷紧神经。 这场突如其来的困局并非偶然。外需端，美国关税升级让日本汽车等优势产业出口"急刹车"，三季度出口六个季度以来首降；内需端，民间住宅投资大跌 9.4%，几乎吞噬疫情后复苏成果。雪上加霜的是，中国赴日旅游遭遇"退订寒潮"，超54万张机票被取消，旅游业损失或达万亿日元。 11月21日，面对多重压力，高市内阁抛出21.3万亿日元刺激计划，却引发更大争议。市场将其与英国"特拉斯风暴"相提并论，担忧债务激增进一步动摇财政 根基。 日本GDP再度负增长，复苏势头几近抹去 在美国关税和内需疲软的双重夹击下，日本时隔六个季度再次陷入负增长。11月17日公布的数据显示，2025年三季度日本实际GDP环比下滑0.4%，折合年 率下降1.8%，明显弱于此前几个季度的复苏势头。 ...

这可能再次引发约20万亿美元的日元套利交易反转，威胁全球风险资产。 随着日本政府公布1100亿美元规模的财政刺激计划，"高市交易"升级，日本长期债券遭抛售，10年期日 债收益率飙升至2008年金融危机以来最高水平，30年期日债收益率更创盘中历史新高。 这可能再次引发约20万亿美元的日元套利交易反转，威胁全球风险资产。 日本长债收益率升至数十年高位 基准10年期日本国债收益率19日一度攀升0.04个百分点至1.78%，为2008年6月全球金融危机以来的最高 水平。20年期日本国债收益率升至2.795%，为1999年以来最高。30年期日本国债收益率盘中甚至升至 3.35%的历史新高。 瑞穗首席策略师大森（Shoki Omori）认为："市场这两个交易日确实可能反应过度，但显然，日本政府 将不得不发行长期债券来为其扩张性支出计划提供资金。"此外，他补充称，越来越多投的资者认为日 本的宏观经济形势正在变得"混乱"，这种情绪不仅体现在日本国债收益率上，也体现在日元和日股中。 18日，日元对美元汇率自2月以来首次跌破155日元，创自今年1月以来最低水平。日经225指数创下今年 4月初以来最大单日跌幅。 日本内阁府17日公 ...