Group 1 - Japan's Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's remarks regarding Taiwan have severely damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations, leading to a significant decline in the atmosphere for personnel exchanges between the two countries. Economic experts in Japan estimate that a sharp reduction in Chinese tourist numbers could result in losses exceeding 2 trillion yen for Japan [1] - If the current state of Sino-Japanese relations persists for over a year, it could lead to a reduction of more than 2 trillion yen in Chinese tourist spending, which would have a substantial impact on Japan's tourism industry and local economies [1] - The Japanese government has approved a 21.3 trillion yen economic stimulus plan, which is the first major fiscal initiative under Prime Minister Takashi's administration. This plan includes 17.7 trillion yen in general account expenditures, marking a 27% increase from the previous year [21][24] Group 2 - The Japanese economy has entered a negative growth phase for the first time in six quarters, with a 0.4% decrease in real GDP for the third quarter of 2025, translating to an annualized decline of 1.8% [5][10] - Exports have seen a decline for the first time in six quarters, with a 1.2% drop in goods and services exports, largely attributed to increased tariffs imposed by the United States on Japanese automotive and manufacturing products [10][11] - Domestic demand has also been adversely affected, with private residential investment plummeting by 9.4%, nearly erasing the recovery gains made post-pandemic [10] Group 3 - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar has raised concerns, with the Japanese Finance Minister expressing worries about the rapid and one-sided decline of the yen, which has increased the cost of imported goods for households and small businesses [3] - The recent economic data has led to a significant sell-off in Japanese assets, with the 30-year government bond yield reaching a historical high, and the Nikkei 225 index erasing all gains since the new Prime Minister took office [5][13] - The market is reacting to the economic outlook, with the yen depreciating approximately 6% since the new administration took office, raising concerns about the credibility of Japan's fiscal policies [14][17] Group 4 - The tourism sector is facing a severe downturn, with over 540,000 flight cancellations to Japan since mid-November, leading to potential losses in the tourism industry amounting to trillions of yen [19][20] - Chinese tourists are a significant contributor to Japan's tourism revenue, accounting for approximately 30% of the total foreign travel spending in Japan, making the current decline particularly impactful [19] - The Japanese government has acknowledged that the optimistic economic forecasts are no longer sustainable, revising the GDP growth expectation for the fiscal year 2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7% [10][11]

日本首相高市早苗近期发表错误言论，引发中日关系紧张升级。中方采取精准反制措施：暂停中日多项交流活动、限制日本水产品进口，并间接影响日本制 造业供应链。市场避险情绪迅速升温，投资者担忧区域稳定性受损，资本加速撤离日本市场。景顺资产策略师木下智指出，中日关系恶化是"抛售日本"行情 的重要推手。 11月21日，高市内阁公布规模达21.3万亿日元（约合1400亿美元）的经济刺激计划，旨在提振疲软经济。然而，该计划引发市场对日本财政恶化的恐慌： 国债遭抛售：日本国债收益率连续多日飙升（债券价格暴跌），30年期国债收益率创历史新高，全球第三大债券市场面临崩溃风险； 投资者担忧日本可能重演英国前首相特拉斯时期的"迷你预算危机"，即激进财政政策导致市场信心崩塌。 日本三季度GDP年化环比下降1.8%，自2024年一季度后再度陷入负增长。内需疲软（占GDP 60%）与美国加征关税导致出口受挫，成为经济萎缩主因。同 时，科技股估值过高引发回调压力，叠加财政风险，形成"股债汇三杀"的恶性循环。加拿大皇家银行分析师马克·道丁警告："若高市失去政策可信度，抛售 潮将蔓延至所有日本资产"。 当前"抛售日本"交易仍处于早期阶段。若高市政府 ...

（原标题："抛售日本"才刚刚开始？日本遭遇股债汇"三杀"） 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 受日本政府力推积极的财政政策、主张保持宽松货币政策等因素 的影响，日本连日遭受股债汇"三杀"。 11月21日，据环球时报报道，日本政府正在制定一项规模超过20万亿日元的经济刺激方案。经济刺激计 划震动市场，日本国债收益率已持续多日大幅走高，与其反向变动的债券价格正不断走低，日本国债被 市场抛售。与此同时，日本汇市和股市也同步承压。其中，日元兑美元持续跌破157区间，日经225指数 也跌穿49000点。 事实上，日本政府正陷入两难抉择。一方面，日本三季度经济出现萎缩，日本政府冒着债务负担加重的 压力推出庞大的经济刺激计划；另一方面，财政扩张叠加市场对日本央行推迟加息的预期，会进一步削 弱日元，而日元贬值又会反过来推高进口商品成本，与日本政府通过补贴来缓解通胀痛苦的做法背道而 驰。 "当前中日经贸的不确定性增强，叠加日本经济在美国关税政策下承压，市场风险情绪上涨。"复旦发展 研究院金融研究中心主任孙立坚对21世纪经济报道记者表示，"早苗经济学"忽视了日本经济的脆弱性， 推行巨额政府支出计划，并辅以低利率政策，触发市场对 ...

此前10月份，市场曾押注日本首相高市早苗的财政扩张将重振日本经济增长，推动日本股市创下历史新高。但到11月19日，高市就任不到一个 月，日经225指数已抹去其当选以来的全部涨幅，给投资者当头一棒。 日本首相高市早苗正面临上任以来首次重大市场考验，即将出台的财政刺激计划，正威胁颠覆她当选时引发的市场涨势。 随着市场预计日本政府周五将公布期待已久的经济刺激方案，本周日本国债暴跌，日元跌入可能触发干预的危险区域，周二日经225指数更是录得 4月以来最大跌幅。 尽管受英伟达财报提振，日本股市周四有望反弹，但外交摩擦仍带来持续风险，分析认为"抛售日本"交易或许才刚刚开始。 刺激方案规模引发"三杀"担忧 即将公布的财政刺激计划将成为关键考验。 日本首相高市早苗的计划预计将超过其前任推出的13.9万亿日元方案，部分议员正推动约25万亿日元的额外预算。T&D资产管理公司首席策略师 兼基金经理Namioka Hiroshi表示： 25万亿日元规模会很大，人们质疑这是否真的必要。 他担心方案公布后再出现"三杀"风险，股票、债券和日元同时下跌，类似2022年英国在特拉斯执政时期遭遇的市场动荡。 （美元兑日元汇率时隔10个月重回15 ...

由于市场担忧高市早苗提出的扩张性财政政策会导致财政状况进一步恶化，日本国债遭投资者抛售，长期利率持续上升。 受日本财政状况前景以及日本首相高市早苗错误言论引发的中日外交争端等因素影响，日本东京股市日经225指数18日收于48702.98点，大跌3.22%，跌幅 为今年4月初以来最大。同一天，日本国债也遭抛售，日元汇率下挫。 东京股市继续承压下跌 19日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。有记者问：中国向日方通报暂停进口日本水产品，您能否介绍相关细节和原因？ 毛宁表示，据我了解，日方此前承诺履行输华水产品的监管责任，保障产品质量安全，这是日本水产品输华的先决条件，但是日方目前未能提供所承诺的 技术材料。 毛宁强调，近期由于日本首相高市早苗倒行逆施，在台湾等重大问题上发表错误言论，引起中国民众的强烈公愤。当前形势下，即使日本水产品向中国出 口也不会有市场。 市场机构人士表示，投资者担忧高市早苗即将推出的经济刺激方案会加剧公共财政负担，加上日本科技股估值偏高以及中日外交争端，共同推动资本市 场"抛售日本"交易活跃起来。 日本东京股市两大股指19日继续承压下跌。 由于东京股市两大股指此前三个交易日连续下跌，日经股指累计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The diplomatic dispute between China and Japan, along with concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook and comments from Prime Minister Kishi, has led to increased market activity in "sell Japan" trades, resulting in significant declines in Japanese stocks and bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 3.2%, marking the largest single-day drop since April 9 [1]. - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.68%, the highest level since 2007 [1]. - Investor sentiment is deteriorating due to uncertainties surrounding the government's fiscal situation and the strained relationship with China, fueling the "sell Japan" trend [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Japan's economy, already weakened by U.S. tariffs and declining real estate investments, faces additional uncertainty due to the diplomatic dispute triggered by Prime Minister Kishi's comments [3]. - The number of Chinese tourists, who accounted for approximately 5.7 million visitors or nearly 23% of all foreign tourists to Japan this year, is expected to decline, impacting the tourism sector [3]. - Economic forecasts suggest that the ongoing tensions could lead to a contraction in Japan's GDP by 1.79 trillion yen, equivalent to a decrease of 0.29% within a year [3]. Group 3: Recent Economic Data - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [4].