Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Sanae's remarks at an international investment conference on December 1, urging investment in Japan, were met with mixed reactions, highlighting the current economic challenges facing the country [1] Economic Context - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda Kazuo hinted at a potential interest rate hike in December, leading to a significant drop in the Nikkei index by nearly 1000 points on the same day [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets also experienced volatility, and Bitcoin plummeted to approximately $84,000 [1] Currency and Debt Situation - The Japanese yen appreciated against the U.S. dollar, moving from the 156 yen range to the 154 yen range [1] - Japan's government debt has surpassed 200% of its GDP, the highest among developed countries, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [1]

Group 1 - Japan's Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's remarks regarding Taiwan have severely damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations, leading to a significant decline in the atmosphere for personnel exchanges between the two countries. Economic experts in Japan estimate that a sharp reduction in Chinese tourist numbers could result in losses exceeding 2 trillion yen for Japan [1] - If the current state of Sino-Japanese relations persists for over a year, it could lead to a reduction of more than 2 trillion yen in Chinese tourist spending, which would have a substantial impact on Japan's tourism industry and local economies [1] - The Japanese government has approved a 21.3 trillion yen economic stimulus plan, which is the first major fiscal initiative under Prime Minister Takashi's administration. This plan includes 17.7 trillion yen in general account expenditures, marking a 27% increase from the previous year [21][24] Group 2 - The Japanese economy has entered a negative growth phase for the first time in six quarters, with a 0.4% decrease in real GDP for the third quarter of 2025, translating to an annualized decline of 1.8% [5][10] - Exports have seen a decline for the first time in six quarters, with a 1.2% drop in goods and services exports, largely attributed to increased tariffs imposed by the United States on Japanese automotive and manufacturing products [10][11] - Domestic demand has also been adversely affected, with private residential investment plummeting by 9.4%, nearly erasing the recovery gains made post-pandemic [10] Group 3 - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar has raised concerns, with the Japanese Finance Minister expressing worries about the rapid and one-sided decline of the yen, which has increased the cost of imported goods for households and small businesses [3] - The recent economic data has led to a significant sell-off in Japanese assets, with the 30-year government bond yield reaching a historical high, and the Nikkei 225 index erasing all gains since the new Prime Minister took office [5][13] - The market is reacting to the economic outlook, with the yen depreciating approximately 6% since the new administration took office, raising concerns about the credibility of Japan's fiscal policies [14][17] Group 4 - The tourism sector is facing a severe downturn, with over 540,000 flight cancellations to Japan since mid-November, leading to potential losses in the tourism industry amounting to trillions of yen [19][20] - Chinese tourists are a significant contributor to Japan's tourism revenue, accounting for approximately 30% of the total foreign travel spending in Japan, making the current decline particularly impactful [19] - The Japanese government has acknowledged that the optimistic economic forecasts are no longer sustainable, revising the GDP growth expectation for the fiscal year 2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7% [10][11]

Group 1 - Japan's Prime Minister, Taro Kono, made erroneous statements leading to heightened tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, prompting China to implement countermeasures such as suspending multiple exchanges and restricting Japanese seafood imports, which indirectly affects Japan's manufacturing supply chain [1] - Market risk aversion has surged, with investors concerned about regional stability, resulting in accelerated capital withdrawal from the Japanese market. Invesco strategist Kinoshita noted that the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations is a significant driver of the "sell Japan" trend [1] Group 2 - On November 21, Kono's cabinet announced a 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 140 billion USD) economic stimulus plan aimed at revitalizing the sluggish economy, which has raised fears of worsening Japan's fiscal situation [3] - Japanese government bonds have faced sell-offs, with bond yields rising for several consecutive days, and the 30-year bond yield reaching a historic high, indicating a potential collapse risk for the world's third-largest bond market [3] - The yen is under devaluation pressure, nearing the 160 mark, which approaches the intervention threshold set by the Bank of Japan [3] - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a significant drop of over 2,500 points in a single week, erasing all gains since Kono took office [3] Group 3 - Investors are worried that Japan may repeat the "mini-budget crisis" seen during former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss's tenure, where aggressive fiscal policies led to a collapse in market confidence [4] Group 4 - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the third quarter, marking a return to negative growth after the first quarter of 2024, primarily due to weak domestic demand and export challenges from U.S. tariffs [6] - High valuations in technology stocks have led to correction pressures, compounded by fiscal risks, creating a vicious cycle of "sell-off in stocks, bonds, and currency" [6] - Analysts warn that if Kono loses policy credibility, the sell-off could extend to all Japanese assets, indicating that the current "sell Japan" trend is still in its early stages [6] - There is a critical need for the Kono administration to balance fiscal expansion with debt management; otherwise, prolonged diplomatic stalemates could lead to systemic crises [6] - Bloomberg analysis suggests Japan must find a balance between policy credibility and market stability to avoid a repeat of the "lost decade" [6]

（原标题："抛售日本"才刚刚开始？日本遭遇股债汇"三杀"） 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 受日本政府力推积极的财政政策、主张保持宽松货币政策等因素 的影响，日本连日遭受股债汇"三杀"。 11月21日，据环球时报报道，日本政府正在制定一项规模超过20万亿日元的经济刺激方案。经济刺激计 划震动市场，日本国债收益率已持续多日大幅走高，与其反向变动的债券价格正不断走低，日本国债被 市场抛售。与此同时，日本汇市和股市也同步承压。其中，日元兑美元持续跌破157区间，日经225指数 也跌穿49000点。 事实上，日本政府正陷入两难抉择。一方面，日本三季度经济出现萎缩，日本政府冒着债务负担加重的 压力推出庞大的经济刺激计划；另一方面，财政扩张叠加市场对日本央行推迟加息的预期，会进一步削 弱日元，而日元贬值又会反过来推高进口商品成本，与日本政府通过补贴来缓解通胀痛苦的做法背道而 驰。 "当前中日经贸的不确定性增强，叠加日本经济在美国关税政策下承压，市场风险情绪上涨。"复旦发展 研究院金融研究中心主任孙立坚对21世纪经济报道记者表示，"早苗经济学"忽视了日本经济的脆弱性， 推行巨额政府支出计划，并辅以低利率政策，触发市场对 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi is facing her first major market test since taking office, with an upcoming fiscal stimulus plan threatening to disrupt the market rally that followed her election [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Japanese stock market, particularly the Nikkei 225 index, has erased all gains since Takashi's election, reflecting investor disappointment [3][10]. - The upcoming fiscal stimulus plan is expected to exceed the previous 13.9 trillion yen plan, with some lawmakers pushing for an additional budget of around 25 trillion yen, raising concerns about its necessity [4][11]. - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, with the USD/JPY exchange rate returning to 157, and analysts warn that further declines could prompt government intervention [5][8]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Concerns about the fiscal plan have led to fears of a "triple kill," where stocks, bonds, and the yen all decline simultaneously, reminiscent of market turmoil during Liz Truss's tenure in the UK [4][11]. - Rising long-term bond yields are anticipated if Takashi seeks a large budget, potentially pushing the yen weaker to 160 per dollar [8]. - Despite a weak yen typically supporting Japanese stocks, ongoing diplomatic tensions and a downturn in global tech stocks have hindered the performance of the Nikkei index [9]. Group 3: Policy Credibility - The market's negative sentiment is compounded by Takashi's recent decisions to abandon the annual budget balance target and reduce shareholder focus in corporate governance, raising investor concerns [10][11]. - The credibility of Takashi's economic agenda is under scrutiny, with analysts suggesting that a loss of confidence could lead to widespread asset sell-offs [11]. - Some investors still believe that Takashi's spending plans could ultimately support Japanese assets, potentially leading to economic overheating and necessitating interest rate hikes, which could strengthen the yen in the long term [11].

由于市场担忧高市早苗提出的扩张性财政政策会导致财政状况进一步恶化，日本国债遭投资者抛售，长期利率持续上升。 受日本财政状况前景以及日本首相高市早苗错误言论引发的中日外交争端等因素影响，日本东京股市日经225指数18日收于48702.98点，大跌3.22%，跌幅 为今年4月初以来最大。同一天，日本国债也遭抛售，日元汇率下挫。 东京股市继续承压下跌 19日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。有记者问：中国向日方通报暂停进口日本水产品，您能否介绍相关细节和原因？ 毛宁表示，据我了解，日方此前承诺履行输华水产品的监管责任，保障产品质量安全，这是日本水产品输华的先决条件，但是日方目前未能提供所承诺的 技术材料。 毛宁强调，近期由于日本首相高市早苗倒行逆施，在台湾等重大问题上发表错误言论，引起中国民众的强烈公愤。当前形势下，即使日本水产品向中国出 口也不会有市场。 市场机构人士表示，投资者担忧高市早苗即将推出的经济刺激方案会加剧公共财政负担，加上日本科技股估值偏高以及中日外交争端，共同推动资本市 场"抛售日本"交易活跃起来。 日本东京股市两大股指19日继续承压下跌。 由于东京股市两大股指此前三个交易日连续下跌，日经股指累计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The diplomatic dispute between China and Japan, along with concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook and comments from Prime Minister Kishi, has led to increased market activity in "sell Japan" trades, resulting in significant declines in Japanese stocks and bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 3.2%, marking the largest single-day drop since April 9 [1]. - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.68%, the highest level since 2007 [1]. - Investor sentiment is deteriorating due to uncertainties surrounding the government's fiscal situation and the strained relationship with China, fueling the "sell Japan" trend [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Japan's economy, already weakened by U.S. tariffs and declining real estate investments, faces additional uncertainty due to the diplomatic dispute triggered by Prime Minister Kishi's comments [3]. - The number of Chinese tourists, who accounted for approximately 5.7 million visitors or nearly 23% of all foreign tourists to Japan this year, is expected to decline, impacting the tourism sector [3]. - Economic forecasts suggest that the ongoing tensions could lead to a contraction in Japan's GDP by 1.79 trillion yen, equivalent to a decrease of 0.29% within a year [3]. Group 3: Recent Economic Data - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [4].