Morning session notice 联系方式：010-56711796 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 12 日星期一 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 | | | | 铁矿: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周五铁矿收跌。夜盘收涨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、水利部：力争 | 2026 | 年水利基础设施建设和投资持续保持大规模、高水平态势。 | 2、Mysteel | 调研：淡季效应凸显 | 1 | 月份建筑企业钢材采购量预计下降约 | 18%。 | | | | | | 3、上周，247 | 家钢厂高炉开工率 | 79.31%，环比上周增加 | 0.37 | 个百分点；钢厂盈利 | 率 | 37.66%，环比上周减少 | 0.44 | ...

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2025.12.22 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、铁矿石、煤焦、铁合金） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | STATUS CONSULTION COLLECTION | | 2025.12.19 | 2025.12.12 | 价格变动 | 涨跌幅 | | 2025.12.19 | 2025.12.12 | 价格变动 | 涨跌幅 | | 螺纹钢 | RB2605 | 3119 | 3060 | 59 | 1.93% | HRB400E: Φ20: 汇总价格: 上海 ...

晨报 成材 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成材：缺乏驱动 盘整运行 逻辑：上周，247 家钢厂高炉产能利用率 84.93%，环比上周减少 0.99 个百分点；钢厂盈利率 35.93%，环比持平；日均铁水产量 226.55 万吨， 环比减少 2.65 万吨。全国 90 家独立电弧炉钢厂平均产能利用率 54.34%， 环比上升 1.57 个百分点。据乘联分会初步推算，12 月狭义乘用车零售总 市场预计为 230 万辆左右，环比微增 3.4%，同比下降 12.7%，其中新能源 零售可达 138 万辆左右，渗透率 6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the price of the rebar 2601 contract rose by 0.52%. The recovery of terminal demand remained slow, the trading in the construction steel market was dull, and prices lacked upward drivers. It is expected that the futures price of rebar 2601 will fluctuate narrowly above the support level of 3000 yuan/ton [4][5]. - Suggestions for operations: for unilateral trading, consider lightly testing long positions near the 3000 yuan/ton support level; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, opportunistically sell the deep out - of - the - money put options of rb2601 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - The daily K - line chart of the main contract of rebar futures is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [7]. Spot Price - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,170 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [12]. Basis and Spread - No specific analysis of basis and spread is provided in the text. Important Market Information - China's steel production and apparent consumption decreased year - on - year in the first three quarters of this year. It is expected that the annual production will continue to decline, achieving the target of crude steel production control [15]. - The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls announced on September 29 for one year, and China will also suspend relevant export control measures. The US will also suspend the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year [15]. - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, which is expected to drive the total project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan [16][17]. - The "Action Plan for the Quality Improvement and Upgrading of the Iron and Steel Industry in Henan Province" was issued, aiming to complete the technological transformation or elimination of production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level in the provincial steel industry by the end of 2025 and further optimize the industrial layout by 2027 [17]. Supply - side Situation - As of September 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 49.3, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the current value of the purchasing managers' index for the steel circulation industry was 50.4, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [25]. Demand - side Situation - No specific analysis of demand - side situation is provided in the text, only some data sources and relevant indicators are mentioned. Fundamental Analysis - In October 2025, the steel industry PMI was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%, ending two consecutive months of month - on - month decline, indicating a recovery in the industry's operation [5][34]. - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.69%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33% and a year - on - year increase of 0.21%; the steel mill profitability rate was 45.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.02%; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3636 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,400 tons [5][34]. 后市展望 - The average national rebar price in October was 3241 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of October decreased by 28 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month, a decline of 1.4%. The futures price of rebar 2601 is expected to fluctuate narrowly above the support level of 3000 yuan/ton [5][35]. Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Consider lightly testing long positions near the 3000 yuan/ton support level. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Opportunistically sell the deep out - of - the - money put options of rb2601 [6][36].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of shorting on rebounds for both steel products and raw materials [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - Last week, steel products rebounded with little change in weekly fundamentals, showing a pattern of stronger supply and weaker demand. The recent strong performance of upstream raw materials has boosted steel products, but the hot and rainy weather still has a negative impact on building material demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Steel Product Production and Utilization - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in the country was 54.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.13 percentage points [3] - The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points [3] - The steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week [3] - The daily average pig iron output was 2.4229 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 million tons [3] Downstream Appliance Production - In July, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 15.8 million units, a 1.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [3] - The refrigerator production schedule was 7.35 million units, a 2.4% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [3] - The washing machine production schedule was 6.445 million units, a 4.2% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [3] Steel Product Market Situation - Last week, steel products rebounded with little change in weekly fundamentals. The inventory of the five major steel products slightly accumulated, production increased, and demand slightly decreased, still showing a pattern of stronger supply and weaker demand [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests treating steel products with a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Industry Event News**: The Australian Anti - Dumping Commission postponed the basic fact report of the anti - dumping investigation on Chinese hot - rolled steel coils to December 10, 2025, and the final arbitration report will be submitted to the minister by February 25, 2026. The consumer goods trade - in policy has no change, and the subsidy funds are being used as expected, with central funds to be issued in the third and fourth quarters [2]. - **Industry Data**: Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.79%, a 0.21 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a 0.87 - percentage - point increase; the daily average hot - metal output was 242.18 million tons, a 0.57 - million - ton increase. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 54.54%, a 2.19 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 0.81 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [2]. - **Market Situation**: Last week, steel products showed little change, consolidating at the bottom. Although the price center shifted up slightly, it was still a narrow - range adjustment at a low level. The macro and fundamental aspects were relatively calm, and the weekly fundamentals continued the previous situation of strong supply and weak demand. As it has entered the off - season of demand, there is a possibility of further decline in future demand, and the probability of effective improvement in terminal demand is low. Without macro - policy promotion, the industry fundamentals are more likely to lead to prices falling rather than rising [2].