1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall black market is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation. Steel products show a seasonal situation of weak supply and demand, and there may still be capital outflows before the Spring Festival, leading to a decrease in market trading volume. The macro - level is calm and has little impact on prices [12]. - For iron ore, it is recommended to mainly short - allocate. The macro - level driving force has weakened, the supply - demand contradiction has continued to accumulate in the short term, and the price is restricted by the industrial chain profit. The strategy is to conduct range operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - For coal and coke, the current supply - demand contradiction in the market is general, and the inventory pressure is not large, providing some support for prices. However, due to the off - season effect, there is no continuous upward driving force, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Prudent operation is required [14]. - For ferroalloys, before the Spring Festival, the market trading is cold. The alloy fundamentals remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the prices will follow the black market and fluctuate within a narrow range before the Spring Festival [16] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Market Review - The closing prices of most futures and spot products in the black industry chain decreased from January 30 to February 6, 2026, except for the scrap steel whose price index increased by 0.61%. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2605 decreased by 1.63%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 0.92% [8] 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast Overall Market - Logic: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased, and the average daily hot - metal output also increased. The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market enters the holiday mode, showing a seasonal situation of weak supply and demand. There may be capital outflows before the festival, and the macro - level has little impact on prices [12]. - View: Low - level consolidation [12] Iron Ore - Logic: Macroscopically, the short - term inflation expectation has declined, and the employment has weakened marginally. The domestic economic recovery shows a pulsed characteristic. In terms of supply, although the external ore shipment is in the off - season, it is higher than the same period in previous years. The domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. In terms of demand, the domestic demand has slightly recovered, but the steel mill's profitability is weak, and the terminal demand is in the seasonal off - season. The steel mill's restocking is coming to an end, and the port inventory is at a high level [13]. - View: Short - allocate mainly, conduct range operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13] Coal and Coke - Logic: The coal and coke futures prices first rose and then fell due to the false rumor of production quota cuts in Indonesia. Recently, the overall trend of steel and ore has been weak, and the off - season restricts the rebound height. The domestic coal mines are starting to shut down for the holiday, and the output is expected to decline significantly. However, the downstream has stocked up in advance, and there is no continuous upward driving force [14]. - View: The supply - demand contradiction is general, and the inventory pressure is not large, providing support for prices. But due to the off - season, there is no continuous upward driving force, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Prudent operation is required [14] Ferroalloys - Logic: Overseas, the US manufacturing PMI has entered the expansion range, but the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense. Domestically, the three major PMI indices have declined. The prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures have slightly declined. In terms of supply, the output and operating rate of ferromanganese have slightly shrunk, and those of ferrosilicon have slightly increased. In terms of demand, the demand from steel mills has weakened, and the restocking is coming to an end. In terms of inventory, the inventory of ferromanganese has increased, and that of ferrosilicon has decreased slightly. In terms of cost, the manganese ore price is expected to remain firm, and the cost of ferrosilicon is well - supported [17]. - View: Before the Spring Festival, the market trading is cold. The alloy fundamentals remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the prices will follow the black market and fluctuate within a narrow range before the Spring Festival [17] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar** - Production: The weekly output last week was 191.68 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.15 and a year - on - year increase of 7.88. The long - process output was 162.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.81 and a year - on - year decrease of 18.79. The short - process output was 28.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.34 and a year - on - year increase of 26.67 [20][23]. - Apparent demand: Last week, it was 147.64 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28.76 and a year - on - year increase of 16.09 [20]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 365.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39.52 and a year - on - year decrease of 119.45. The steel mill inventory was 153.65 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52 and a year - on - year decrease of 66.36. The total inventory was 519.57 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44.04 and a year - on - year decrease of 185.81 [27]. - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for January was 62 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 and a year - on - year increase of 72; for May, it was 143 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21 and a year - on - year increase of 88; for October, it was 96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 and a year - on - year increase of 96 [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil** - Production: The weekly output last week was 309.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 14.97 [31]. - Apparent demand: Last week, it was 305.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.87 and a year - on - year increase of 7.11 [31]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 280.45 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.12 and a year - on - year decrease of 36.92. The steel mill inventory was 78.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.50 and a year - on - year decrease of 18.20. The total inventory was 359.20 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.62 and a year - on - year decrease of 55.12 [35]. - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for January was - 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 and a year - on - year increase of 34; for May, it was - 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17 and a year - on - year decrease of 4; for October, it was - 19 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 and a year - on - year increase of 18 [45] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory (45 ports): The total inventory this week was 17140.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 118.45 and a year - on - year increase of 1748.18. The Australian ore inventory was 7903.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 104.08 and a year - on - year increase of 1155.26. The Brazilian ore inventory was 5536.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47.54 and a year - on - year decrease of 427.29 [49]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory/consumption: The inventory was 10316.64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 348.05 and a year - on - year increase of 821.90. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 36.55, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 and a year - on - year increase of 3.36. The daily consumption was 282.24 million tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 1.28 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.93 [60]. - 247 steel mills' operating rate/profitability: The blast furnace operating rate was 79.53%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The iron - making utilization rate was 85.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The profitability rate was 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 12.13 percentage points [64]. - Global shipments (19 ports): The total global shipment this week was 2535.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 559.3 and a year - on - year increase of 200.4. The shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 1881.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 585.4 and a year - on - year decrease of 17.0 [68] 3.3.3 Coal and Coke - Coke inventory: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 976.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.53 and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7. The independent coke enterprises' inventory was 82.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7 and a year - on - year decrease of 74.0 [93]. - Coking coal inventory: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2998.56 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 84.18 and a year - on - year increase of 80.0 [100]. - Independent coke enterprises' average profit per ton of coke: Last week, it was - 10 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 45 and a year - on - year increase of 17 [105]. - Independent coke enterprises' capacity utilization rate and daily coke output: The capacity utilization rate last week was 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8. The daily coke output was 63.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.93 [109] 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Spot prices: On February 6, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 36 yuan/dry ton degree, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 5. The spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 6520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 820 and a year - on - year increase of 120. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 and a year - on - year decrease of 680 [132]. - Manganese ore inventory: In the week of January 30, the total port inventory was 435.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.9 and a year - on - year increase of 42.3. The inventory in Tianjin Port was 332.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.5 and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8 [136]. - Output: The weekly output of ferromanganese was 190995 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1400 and a year - on - year decrease of 2345. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 [139][141]. - Demand: The weekly demand for ferromanganese from five major steel products was 116059 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1161 and a year - on - year increase of 2251. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 18497.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 261 and a year - on - year increase of 621 [143]. - Inventory: On February 6, the inventory of ferromanganese was 377800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3500 and a year - on - year increase of 227300. The inventory of ferrosilicon was 66860 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1040 and a year - on - year decrease of 9380 [147]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is stagnant at a high level, and there is no basis for independent upward movement. It is recommended to conduct range trading and sell call options. The short - term trend is mainly range - bound, with the supply peak of foreign mines passed and the demand for iron ore showing a downward trend. The inventory tends to accumulate [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalog Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has continued to increase month - on - month, with significant increases in Australia and Brazil, but the arrival volume has decreased significantly month - on - month. The peak supply period of foreign mines may have passed, and the supply pressure may decrease month - on - month in the future [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has increased month - on - month mainly due to the full - production resumption in Hebei after the lifting of production restrictions. There are new blast furnace overhauls and restarts. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability continue to decline due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline rate is not high. Considering the seasonal restocking cycle of steel mills, domestic iron ore demand still has resilience [3]. Price - The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures operates in the range of 765 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market price of about 103.5 - 105.0 US dollars/ton [3]. Strategy - Conduct range trading and sell call options [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the price of the rebar 2601 contract rose by 0.52%. The recovery of terminal demand remained slow, the trading in the construction steel market was dull, and prices lacked upward drivers. It is expected that the futures price of rebar 2601 will fluctuate narrowly above the support level of 3000 yuan/ton [4][5]. - Suggestions for operations: for unilateral trading, consider lightly testing long positions near the 3000 yuan/ton support level; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, opportunistically sell the deep out - of - the - money put options of rb2601 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - The daily K - line chart of the main contract of rebar futures is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [7]. Spot Price - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,170 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [12]. Basis and Spread - No specific analysis of basis and spread is provided in the text. Important Market Information - China's steel production and apparent consumption decreased year - on - year in the first three quarters of this year. It is expected that the annual production will continue to decline, achieving the target of crude steel production control [15]. - The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls announced on September 29 for one year, and China will also suspend relevant export control measures. The US will also suspend the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year [15]. - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, which is expected to drive the total project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan [16][17]. - The "Action Plan for the Quality Improvement and Upgrading of the Iron and Steel Industry in Henan Province" was issued, aiming to complete the technological transformation or elimination of production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level in the provincial steel industry by the end of 2025 and further optimize the industrial layout by 2027 [17]. Supply - side Situation - As of September 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 49.3, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the current value of the purchasing managers' index for the steel circulation industry was 50.4, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [25]. Demand - side Situation - No specific analysis of demand - side situation is provided in the text, only some data sources and relevant indicators are mentioned. Fundamental Analysis - In October 2025, the steel industry PMI was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%, ending two consecutive months of month - on - month decline, indicating a recovery in the industry's operation [5][34]. - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.69%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33% and a year - on - year increase of 0.21%; the steel mill profitability rate was 45.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.02%; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3636 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,400 tons [5][34]. 后市展望 - The average national rebar price in October was 3241 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of October decreased by 28 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month, a decline of 1.4%. The futures price of rebar 2601 is expected to fluctuate narrowly above the support level of 3000 yuan/ton [5][35]. Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Consider lightly testing long positions near the 3000 yuan/ton support level. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Opportunistically sell the deep out - of - the - money put options of rb2601 [6][36].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The financial data in May is reasonably matched with the real - economy operation. The growth rates of social financing scale, M2, and RMB loans are significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, and the support for the real economy remains stable. Fiscal and industrial policies are more proactive, forming a stronger synergy with monetary policy to promote the continuous recovery of the economy [2]. - The CSRC has announced the "Regulations on the Administration of Programmed Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)", which will be implemented from October 9, 2025. The futures exchange will implement key management of high - frequency trading [2]. - Due to the complex international situation and large market fluctuations, the SHFE has reminded relevant units to take measures to prompt investors to prevent risks and invest rationally [2]. - The nuclear talks between Iran and the US that were originally scheduled to be held in Oman have been indefinitely postponed [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot News - **Financial Data**: In May, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale was 8.7%, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 balance was 7.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M1 balance was 2.3%. In the first five months, the incremental social financing scale was 18.63 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, and RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan [2]. - **Futures Regulations**: The CSRC announced the "Regulations on the Administration of Programmed Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)" to be implemented on October 9, 2025, with key management of high - frequency trading [2]. - **Market Risk Warning**: The SHFE reminded relevant units to prompt investors to prevent risks due to complex international situations and large market fluctuations [2]. - **Steel Mill Data**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.36 percentage points from last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.58%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.05 percentage points from last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from last week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points from last year; the daily average pig iron output was 241.61 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons from last week [3]. - **International Event**: Iran's nuclear talks with the US have been indefinitely postponed after Israel's air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and military bases [3]. Key Focus - **Focus Commodities**: Urea, crude oil, rebar, lithium carbonate, and PVC [4]. Night - Session Performance - **Sector Performance**: Non - metallic building materials increased by 2.51%, precious metals by 30.86%, energy by 2.86%, chemicals by 12.93%, grains by 1.40%, agricultural and sideline products by 2.56%, oilseeds and oils by 11.49%, soft commodities by 2.70%, non - ferrous metals by 19.66%, and coal - coking - steel - ore by 13.03% [4][5]. Major Asset Performance | Asset Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.75 | 0.88 | 0.75 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.55 | - 0.08 | - 0.31 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.72 | 0.62 | - 1.80 | | | CSI 500 | - 1.03 | 1.22 | 0.25 | | | S&P 500 | - 1.13 | 1.10 | 1.62 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.59 | 2.59 | 19.11 | | | German DAX | - 1.07 | - 2.01 | 18.12 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.89 | - 0.34 | - 5.16 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.39 | 0.89 | 8.29 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.02 | 0.27 | 0.09 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.04 | 0.15 | - 0.34 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.03 | 0.07 | - 0.50 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | 4.25 | 2.04 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 8.39 | 21.44 | 2.54 | | | London Spot Gold | 1.40 | 4.40 | 30.84 | | | LME Copper | - 0.56 | 1.58 | 9.86 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.40 | 2.65 | 18.08 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.29 | - 1.30 | - 9.53 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 15.54 | 12.12 | 20.00 | [7]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported a rise of 4.24 points to 1345.17 as of May 9, while the China Export Container Freight Index decreased by 1.3% to 1106.38 [1] - Mysteel's survey indicated that the operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills reached 84.62%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points week-on-week and up 3.12 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average daily pig iron output was 2.4564 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.022 million tons [1] Group 2 - The General Administration of Customs and six other departments announced adjustments to management measures for customs special supervision zones, effective June 10, 2025 [2] - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 to 10 totaled 293,991 tons, a decrease of 9% compared to the same period last month [2] - The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association urged major nitrogen fertilizer companies to reduce urea factory prices within three days to not exceed levels prior to May 6 [2]