1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the price of the rebar 2601 contract rose by 0.52%. The recovery of terminal demand remained slow, the trading in the construction steel market was dull, and prices lacked upward drivers. It is expected that the futures price of rebar 2601 will fluctuate narrowly above the support level of 3000 yuan/ton [4][5]. - Suggestions for operations: for unilateral trading, consider lightly testing long positions near the 3000 yuan/ton support level; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, opportunistically sell the deep out - of - the - money put options of rb2601 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - The daily K - line chart of the main contract of rebar futures is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [7]. Spot Price - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,170 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [12]. Basis and Spread - No specific analysis of basis and spread is provided in the text. Important Market Information - China's steel production and apparent consumption decreased year - on - year in the first three quarters of this year. It is expected that the annual production will continue to decline, achieving the target of crude steel production control [15]. - The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls announced on September 29 for one year, and China will also suspend relevant export control measures. The US will also suspend the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year [15]. - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, which is expected to drive the total project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan [16][17]. - The "Action Plan for the Quality Improvement and Upgrading of the Iron and Steel Industry in Henan Province" was issued, aiming to complete the technological transformation or elimination of production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level in the provincial steel industry by the end of 2025 and further optimize the industrial layout by 2027 [17]. Supply - side Situation - As of September 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 49.3, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the current value of the purchasing managers' index for the steel circulation industry was 50.4, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [25]. Demand - side Situation - No specific analysis of demand - side situation is provided in the text, only some data sources and relevant indicators are mentioned. Fundamental Analysis - In October 2025, the steel industry PMI was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%, ending two consecutive months of month - on - month decline, indicating a recovery in the industry's operation [5][34]. - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.69%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33% and a year - on - year increase of 0.21%; the steel mill profitability rate was 45.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.02%; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3636 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,400 tons [5][34]. 后市展望 - The average national rebar price in October was 3241 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of October decreased by 28 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month, a decline of 1.4%. The futures price of rebar 2601 is expected to fluctuate narrowly above the support level of 3000 yuan/ton [5][35]. Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Consider lightly testing long positions near the 3000 yuan/ton support level. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Opportunistically sell the deep out - of - the - money put options of rb2601 [6][36].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is showing signs of recovery in October 2025, with the PMI rising to 49.2%, ending a two-month decline, although challenges such as high raw material prices and inventory pressures remain [1][2]. Demand Recovery - October saw a recovery in steel demand due to the resumption of outdoor construction post-holidays and a lack of adverse weather in northern regions, but the real estate sector remains in deep adjustment, limiting overall market demand [2][3]. - The new orders index increased to 47.6%, up 2.4 percentage points, indicating some improvement in demand, but still within a contraction zone [3]. - Export orders showed significant improvement, with the new export orders index rising to 54.3%, the highest in nearly 20 months, driven by price differentials and overseas demand [3]. Production Trends - Steel production stabilized in October, with the production index rising to 49.8%, up 4.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in production activities [5]. - Despite improvements in both supply and demand, the recovery in demand is weaker than the increase in supply, leading to continued inventory pressures for steel mills [5]. Raw Material Prices - Raw material prices remain high, with the purchasing price index exceeding 70%, indicating increased cost pressures for steel manufacturers [8]. - Prices for different raw materials are showing divergence, with iron ore prices stabilizing, scrap steel prices declining, and coke prices rising due to supply constraints [8]. Price and Profitability - Steel prices have shown a downward trend, with the Shanghai rebar price index dropping from 3176 CNY/ton to 3122 CNY/ton during October, leading to further compression of profit margins for steel mills [11]. - The overall cost pressure on steel manufacturers has increased compared to September, despite some recovery in demand [11]. Future Outlook - In November, steel demand is expected to show a "first rise then fall" trend, supported by construction activities and export resilience, but constrained by ongoing weakness in the real estate sector and seasonal factors [12]. - Steel production is anticipated to contract due to environmental restrictions in northern regions and a shift from peak to off-peak demand [15].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery in demand and production, with the PMI for July 2025 rising to 50.5%, indicating a return to expansion after two months of decline [1][2]. Demand and Supply - The new orders index for the steel industry rose to 51.9% in July, up 6.3 percentage points, marking a return to the expansion zone and the highest level in nearly nine months [2]. - Steel production index increased to 51.9%, up 8.4 percentage points, also reaching a nine-month high, with average daily crude steel production at 2.141 million tons, a 2.1% increase [6]. - The procurement activity of steel mills is on the rise, with the purchasing price index significantly rebounding, indicating a recovery in raw material prices after a prolonged low period [7]. Price Trends - Steel prices have shown a notable increase, with the Shanghai rebar price index rising from 3,043 CNY/ton at the beginning of July to 3,342 CNY/ton by July 25, marking a monthly increase of nearly 300 CNY/ton [8]. - Raw material prices, including iron ore and coke, have also rebounded due to increased procurement and supply disruptions, ending a long period of low prices [7]. Future Outlook - In August, steel demand is expected to continue its weak recovery, influenced by extreme weather conditions and insufficient support from the real estate sector, which saw a 20% decline in new construction area in the first half of 2025 [11]. - Steel production is anticipated to rise slightly, supported by favorable profit margins despite rising raw material costs, although uncertainties remain due to demand fluctuations and supply-demand imbalances [12].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing increased operational pressure as the PMI for May dropped to 46.4%, indicating a return to contraction after three months of growth [1][2] Demand Side Summary - Steel demand is declining due to weak terminal procurement and delayed policy impacts, with the new orders index falling to 46.4%, down 4.6 percentage points month-on-month [2] - The real estate sector is facing challenges, with a year-on-year decline in development investment and a decrease in the real estate development prosperity index, leading to weakened demand for steel [2][4] - The terminal market is also contracting, with a 7.5% month-on-month decline in the procurement of rebar in Shanghai [2] Supply Side Summary - Steel production has decreased, with the production index at 42.8%, down 8 percentage points month-on-month, ending three months of growth [2][5] - The daily crude steel output for major steel enterprises was 220.5 million tons in early May, showing a slight increase, but later figures indicated a decline [2] - The inventory index for finished products rose to 43.3%, up 7.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in the destocking process [3] Price Dynamics Summary - Steel prices are under pressure, with the Shanghai rebar price index dropping to 2,999 yuan/ton, marking a significant decline from previous highs [4] - Despite falling steel prices, the overall cost of steelmaking has decreased, allowing for some profit margin retention for steel mills [4] Future Outlook Summary - The steel market is expected to maintain a weak demand pattern in June, influenced by ongoing challenges in the real estate sector and slow infrastructure project rollouts [4][5] - The production outlook remains cautious, with the production expectation index falling to 42.8%, indicating a potential further decline in production activity [5] - Raw material prices are also expected to remain low and fluctuate, influenced by high inventory levels and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [5]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry PMI for April 2025 is reported at 50.6%, indicating a month-on-month increase of 4.6 percentage points, marking the third consecutive month of growth and the first return to the expansion zone in five months, suggesting an improvement in the steel industry's performance [1] Industry Summary - The steel supply and demand have both increased, with steel mill inventories being consumed at a faster rate [1] - Despite the positive trends in supply and demand, steel prices are experiencing fluctuations and a downward trend, while raw material prices continue to decline [1] - It is anticipated that in May, the demand for steel will continue to recover, leading to an increase in steel mill production, with both raw material and steel prices expected to rebound from low levels [1]