新华社伦敦12月12日电（记者高文成）英国《经济学人》近日刊发分析文章说，日本通胀高企背景 下，日元贬值与债券收益率上升形成有害组合。日本首相高市早苗"大举支出、维持低利率"的经济政策 陈旧过时，带来的麻烦将远超其价值。文章摘要如下： 日本庞大的政府债务存量意味着，即便债券收益率小幅上升，也会导致利息支出激增。近年来，日 本之所以能避免债务危机，是因其财政状况有所改善。今年该国预算赤字约占GDP的1.3%。目前约3% 的通胀率也帮助政府净债务占GDP比重从5年前的162%降至130%。 过去六个月，日元对美元汇率下跌9%，对欧元汇率更是创下欧元诞生27年来的最低水平。日本长 期国债价格也大幅下挫，30年期国债收益率更持续飙升，创下1999年日本发行长期国债以来的最高纪 录。高市推出的大规模财政支出计划令投资者日益担忧。 高市日前推动内阁批准总规模达18.3万亿日元（1美元约合155日元）的补充预算案。尽管其规模占 国内生产总值（GDP）比重不高，却释放了负面信号。高市还批评日本央行的温和加息举措。在通胀高 企、债券收益率上升的时代，她的政策早已过时。 此外，若市场对日本失去信心，可能引发破坏性资本外逃。尽管日 ...

消息人士称，日本央行决策者正密切关注市场动向，但目前不愿采取行动，比如加大购债规模或进行紧 急市场操作，理由是干预门槛很高。 他们还认为，近期没有必要调整日本央行稳步缩减债券购买规模的计划，包括最近导致收益率升至纪录 高位的超长期债券购买计划。 据三位了解日本央行想法的消息人士称，日本央行认为采取紧急干预措施以抑制日本国债收益率上升的 必要性有限，此类举措与该行缩减刺激措施的努力背道而驰。 随着市场对日本12月加息的预期不断升温，本周基准的10年期日本国债收益率升至18年来的高点，引发 了人们对日本央行将如何应对的关注。 日本央行行长植田和男周二在国会发表讲话时表示，近期国债收益率的上升"有些迅速"，并重申日本央 行准备在特殊情况下迅速做出反应。 他们表示，干预还会让市场觉得，日本央行已经明确了将在何处介入，这与其让市场力量推动债券价格 走势的企图背道而驰。 最近几周，全球债券收益率一直在攀升，因为许多央行暗示，它们已处于或接近宽松周期的尾声，而市 场普遍预计日本央行将在下周的政策会议上加息。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 据三位了解日本央行想法的消息人士称，日本央行认为采取紧急干预措施以抑制日本国债收益率上升 ...

Group 1 - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.599%, the highest level since 2008, driven by concerns over fiscal spending ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [1] - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield reached a record 3.21%, while the 20-year yield hit its highest level since 1999 [1] - Market expectations of fiscal expansion policies due to the Senate elections are contributing to the rise in long-term and ultra-long-term bond yields [1][3] Group 2 - Discussions among Japanese politicians regarding lowering the consumption tax are intensifying ahead of the Senate elections, which may lead to increased economic volatility [3] - The current inflation rate in Tokyo decreased to 3.1% in June from 3.6% in May, but remains high, potentially prompting the Bank of Japan to adjust its inflation expectations and accelerate its next interest rate hike [3] - The supply-demand imbalance in the Japanese bond market may worsen, particularly as life insurance companies' capacity to absorb new supply has declined [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan announced plans to slow the pace of government bond purchase reductions starting April next year, maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% due to increasing economic risks [4] - The Bank of Japan reiterated its plan to reduce monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds by approximately 400 billion yen (about 2.76 billion USD) each quarter until March 2026, consistent with previous guidelines [4]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's long-term government bonds experienced a significant drop, leading to a sharp rise in yields, which has raised concerns in the global bond market [1] Group 1: Bond Market Reactions - The yields on Japanese government bonds from 10-year to 40-year maturities surged, reminiscent of the yield spikes that affected global markets in May [1] - Analysts suggest that the rise in yields is linked to concerns over increased government spending and liquidity issues [1] Group 2: Political Implications - The upcoming Senate elections may empower opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and increased government spending, potentially pressuring the Bank of Japan to maintain low interest rates [3] - Polls indicate that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition may lose its majority, leading to potential collaborations with smaller parties favoring expansionary fiscal and monetary policies [3][4] - If the ruling coalition retains its majority, Ishiba might still adopt a less hawkish fiscal stance to mitigate the impacts of U.S. tariffs and rising living costs [4] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - Japan's public debt stands at 250% of GDP, with a significant portion of the budget allocated to servicing this debt, raising concerns about rising debt servicing costs as the central bank moves away from zero interest rates [4] - The Bank of Japan is expected to consider raising its inflation forecasts due to rising food costs, particularly rice, which has affected consumer prices [6][7] - Current inflation data shows core consumer inflation at 3.7%, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years, driven by a 7.7% increase in food costs [7]

Group 1 - Rising bond yields are suppressing the stock market's strong start this week, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 5% [1] - RBC Wealth Management warns that the rise in bond yields poses an imminent threat to the stock market, indicating that a breakthrough of the 2023 highs in U.S. Treasury yields could lead to a market correction [1] - The increase in U.S. Treasury yields is attributed to concerns over government deficit spending linked to tax cut proposals and rising inflation expectations, alongside the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain current interest rates [1] Group 2 - The sell-off in overseas bond markets, particularly following a weak auction of Japan's 40-year government bonds, has contributed to the upward trend in bond yields [2] - The Optimistic Trader's founder suggests that the financial markets are currently "overly complacent," predicting that bond yields will continue to rise and may surpass recent highs, which could hinder stock market rebounds [2] - Current 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are around 4.50%, nearing previous highs, with the 30-year yield previously peaking at 5.09% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating reflects concerns over rapidly expanding debt and fiscal deficits, which may increase borrowing costs and affect the US's status as a global capital destination [1][3][9] Group 1: Reasons for Credit Rating Downgrade - The primary reason for Moody's downgrade is the rapid expansion of US debt and fiscal deficits, with the national debt reaching $36 trillion [3] - Moody's believes that the ongoing deterioration of fiscal conditions will harm the US's position as a global capital destination and increase borrowing costs [3] Group 2: Impact on Borrowing Costs - The downgrade is expected to raise borrowing costs, as investors will reassess the risk associated with US Treasury and other government bonds, potentially leading to higher bond yields [4] - Increased borrowing costs could further impact economic growth by raising financing costs for both the government and corporations [4] Group 3: Attractiveness of High-Grade Corporate Bonds - As US credit ratings decline and bond yields rise, high-grade corporate bonds may become more attractive to fund managers, serving as a safer investment option amid market uncertainty [5][9] - High-grade corporate bonds typically offer higher credit ratings and relatively stable returns, making them appealing during times of increased market volatility [5] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Investors are uncertain about how the downgrade will affect Treasury valuations in the short term, with potential structural changes in demand leading to a "bear steepening" of the yield curve [6] - Short-term market volatility may result from the downgrade, with funds potentially flowing into high-grade corporate bonds, which could increase their prices and lower yields [7] Group 5: Long-Term Market Trends - In the medium to long term, the downgrade may have more profound effects on the market, necessitating close monitoring of US fiscal policy adjustments, debt management measures, and global economic conditions [8] - These factors will collectively influence market valuations of US Treasuries and other bonds [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. GDP data for the first quarter is surprisingly poor, indicating potential economic stagnation similar to the 1970s, with persistent inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The GDP report reflects a market downturn, aligning with expectations of weak economic growth and high inflation [1] - There is a correlation between rising bond yields and declining stock returns, suggesting a challenging economic environment [1] Group 2: Data Noise - The GDP report contains noise due to inventory accumulation activities and the impact of gold shipment volumes on international trade data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that the simultaneous rise in bond yields and depreciation of the dollar is unusual, but it is premature to conclude that the U.S. is no longer a safe haven [1] Group 1 - The increase in bond yields is noted as a rare occurrence alongside a weakening dollar [1] - Waller emphasizes caution in interpreting these market movements, suggesting that the U.S. still retains its status as a safe haven [1]