智通财经APP注意到，在 11 月份失业率意外上升，给笼罩美国经济前景的混合信号增添了不确定性之后，债券交易员们大举押注于一种流行的策略：青睐 短期美债而非长期美债。 周二，2 年期和 30 年期美债收益率之间的利差扩大至四年多来的最大幅度，这反映出在通胀顽固和经济增长强劲的背景下，市场仍预期美联储明年至少还 会再降息两次。 这一切都在为所谓的"曲线陡峭化"交易火上浇油。该交易旨在押注短期和长期债务之间的收益率差距将继续扩大。尽管通胀仍相对较高，但自美联储 9 月份 恢复降息以来，该交易已获得关注。周四，延迟发布的 11 月份消费者物价数据将对这一交易进行进一步的检验。 美债期货也突显出，押注收益率曲线陡峭化的头寸正在加速积累。期货合约持仓量(open interest)数据的变化表明，在曲线的短端出现了新的多头头寸。与此 同时，周二出现的一笔 1500 万美元的溢价头寸，目标是长期美债更深层次的抛售。 WisdomTree 固定收益策略主管 Kevin Flanagan 表示："2 年期收益率被美联储和降息预期所锚定，而曲线的后端则在对更广泛的问题做出反应，即经济并没 有濒临衰退，并且存在顽固的通胀。" 在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current bond market is characterized by weak coupon protection, heavy speculation, and strong sentiment-driven trading, leading to suboptimal investment experiences [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The short-term bond market is still facing headwinds, but interest rates are likely to have an upper limit [1] - The upper limit for the ten-year government bond is around 1.8%, with a maximum position at 1.9%, indicating potential overshoot risks mainly from institutional behavior [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - After October, a "counterattack" opportunity may arise due to a supply off-season, sentiment turning point, and high base effects in consumption [1] - The risk of continued tightening in the funding environment is low, and a recommendation for a steepening curve trade is suggested [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - 30-year government bonds and perpetual bonds are likely to act as sentiment amplifiers, and it is advised to temporarily avoid these [1] - Bonds with maturities of 5-7 years and below possess defensive characteristics, with shallow leverage arbitrage suggested [1] - For credit bonds, a focus on the mid to short end is recommended, as 3-5 year ordinary credit bonds have become relatively attractive after recent declines [1] - Convertible bonds should maintain equity beta exposure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are actively seeking "Powell hedge" strategies in response to Trump's threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating growing concerns over the independence of the Fed and potential inflation risks [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Wall Street is advised to buy 2-year Treasury bonds and sell 10-year Treasury bonds as a hedge against the risks associated with Powell's potential dismissal [1]. - The probability of Powell leaving office by 2025 has increased from 18% to 22% according to Polymarket [1]. - Long-term Treasury yields spiked following news of Trump's potential actions, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising by 11 basis points in less than an hour [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The "Powell hedge" strategy focuses on the potential shift in Federal Reserve policy, with expectations that a new chair could favor rate cuts under White House pressure, leading to a steepening yield curve [1][2]. - Investors are also considering inflation expectations as a more effective hedge, with Bank of America strategists highlighting the importance of inflation-linked securities [2]. Group 3: Internal Fed Dynamics - There is increasing uncertainty within the Federal Reserve, with one-third of respondents in a survey indicating that Governor Waller is a preferred successor to Powell [3]. - Waller has suggested that he would oppose a vote to maintain interest rates if the FOMC decides to do so in the upcoming meeting [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming quarterly refinancing announcement from the Treasury on July 30 will be a key focus for investors, as it may impact the effectiveness of the steepening yield curve strategy [4].