Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. pharmaceutical industry** and the implications of the **Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing policy** proposed by the Trump administration [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of MFN Pricing Policy**: The MFN pricing policy is expected to create significant pressure on drug pricing in the U.S., with potential price reductions ranging from **30% to 80%** as indicated by the U.S. Department of Commerce [3][5]. 2. **Historical Context**: Historical reforms in drug pricing have often centered around the concept of price negotiation, with the first batch of drugs subject to negotiation seeing price reductions of **38% to 79%**, with six drugs experiencing reductions of over **65%** [4][5]. 3. **Net Price Impact**: Despite the significant label price reductions, the actual net price reduction for pharmaceutical companies is estimated to be around **22%**, which indicates a more moderate impact on revenue than initially perceived [5][6]. 4. **Revenue Implications**: For a hypothetical drug generating **$10 billion** in revenue, the effective impact on revenue due to the MFN policy could be approximately **$550 million**, which is a relatively small percentage of total revenue [6]. 5. **Uncertainty in Implementation**: There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the scope of the negotiations, including whether they will apply to Medicare or Medicaid, and the specific drugs that will be targeted [7][8]. 6. **Potential for Domestic Innovation**: The current pricing pressures may create opportunities for Chinese pharmaceutical companies to expand internationally, particularly in the context of increasing demand for innovative drugs [9][10]. 7. **External Factors Influencing Innovation**: Two critical external factors driving the need for Chinese innovation in pharmaceuticals are the pressure from patent expirations and the unprecedented pricing pressures in the U.S. market [10][11]. 8. **Market Dynamics**: The discussion highlights the importance of external collaborations for multinational pharmaceutical companies, with a significant portion of new drug approvals coming from external partnerships [12][13]. 9. **Cost-Sharing Changes**: The upcoming changes in Medicare's cost-sharing structure, particularly the introduction of a cap on out-of-pocket spending for patients, will shift some financial burdens onto pharmaceutical companies [19][21]. 10. **Long-term Outlook**: The overall sentiment suggests that the MFN policy and related pricing pressures will likely lead to a sustained shift in the pharmaceutical landscape, favoring innovative solutions and potentially benefiting Chinese companies looking to enter global markets [24][25]. Additional Important Content - The call emphasized the need for pharmaceutical companies to adapt to the changing regulatory environment and consider strategic partnerships to enhance their market position [12][13]. - There was a discussion on the implications of the **Inflation Reduction Act** and its potential effects on drug pricing and market dynamics [10][22]. - The call concluded with an invitation for further discussions on the topics covered, indicating ongoing interest and engagement from participants [26].

编辑｜海若镜 全球药价最贵的美国，终于坐不住了。 北京时间5月12日晚，特朗普召开白宫新闻发布会，宣布正式签署名为《为美国患者提供最惠国处方药 定价》的行政令，要求相关部门在30天内商议出一个最惠国定价，即药价向国际同等发达国家"看齐"。 行政令认为，美国人口不足世界的5%，却承担了高达75%的药品利润。药价上，对比法国、加拿大等 国家，美国处方药价格平均高出2-4倍。而本次文件落地后，一些处方药价格可能会"直接降低50%至 80%，甚至是90%"。 尽管在实操层面尚未有定论，但过去两天，全球医药行业又一次随着特朗普的"处方药降价大戏"而上下 颠簸。 文｜胡香赟 其核心争议在于，行政令是否会导致美国7000亿药品市场"缩水"，进而影响药企收入，甚至颠覆过往以 美国高价市场为核心形成的全球医药投资逻辑。 尤其是对于中国药企来说，在药品集采和医保政策之下，到大洋彼岸寻找更大的利润空间，是近两年来 的核心课题。如今，终端市场的潜在变化，将如何影响中国企业出海？ 新令暗含药价"外升内降"之意， 矛头指向中间商 再次上任后，特朗普政府似有与药价"死磕"的架势。 今年4月中旬，他也曾签署一项旨在降低处方药的行政令，甚至直 ...

危中有机最惠国定价（MFN）解读 & 国内创新药出海机 遇 20250512 摘要 • 《通货膨胀削减法案》通过医保谈判降低药品价格，首批 10 个药品降幅 达 38%-79%，但实际出厂价仅降 22%，渠道费用占据大部分降幅，对药 企压力相对可控，销售额 100 亿美元的创新药受影响约为 5.5 亿美元。 • 专利悬崖和美国药品定价压力为中国创新药企带来出海机遇，通过技术创 新和国际合作进入全球市场，缓解国内竞争压力，实现利润增长，并规避 美国复杂支付体系的风险。 • 中国创新药 license in 交易持续增长，2023 年占比达 32%，表明其质量 和海外商业化确定性较高，主要得益于人才、临床资源和 me-too 创新模 式，以及专利悬崖和定价压力下的成本控制需求。 • 专利悬崖问题严峻，预计到 2028 年将有 1,000 亿美元专利药收入面临仿 制药竞争，导致销售额下降 320 亿美元，迫使跨国药企通过外部合作和收 购补充管线。 • 大型跨国药企通过外部合作补充管线，占比高达 65%，并拥有大量现金储 备，截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日可用于收购金额达 4,800 亿美元，积极应对 市场压力 ...

【导读】医药板块，突传利空 大家好，特朗普突然对医药出手了！ 特朗普计划降低美国药品价格，医药股暴跌 5月12日，虽然市场整体大涨，但创新药板块却逆市大跌。 | 代码 | 名称 . | 涨幅%1 | 现价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688062 | 迈威生物-U K -10.96 | | 17.80 | | | 688532 | 自济神州-U K -9.04 | | 221.50 | | | e8826e | 淺環制药-U K | -1.81 | 91.73 | | | 688192 | 迪哲医药-U K | -7.36 | 52.23 | | | 300204 | 舒泰神 | -6.36 | 10.31 | | | 688206 | 百利天恒 ાર | -6.08 | 262.99 | | | 002294 | 信立泰 R | -5.75 | 38'22 | | | 002675 | 东诚药业 R | -5.60 | 13.99 | | | 688068 | 热景生物 ાર | -5.39 | 103.50 | | | 688382 | 益方生物-U K | ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump is set to sign an executive order requiring Medicare to implement "Most Favored Nation" (MFN) pricing for certain high-cost drugs, potentially reducing prices by 30% to 80% [1][2]. Group 1: Executive Order and Pricing Mechanism - The MFN pricing strategy aims to compare drug prices with those from OECD countries with GDP per capita at least 60% of the U.S., using a weighted average of international lowest prices and U.S. average sales prices [3][4]. - The implementation will occur over four years, gradually increasing the price alignment to MFN levels, with an estimated average price reduction of about 65% [3][5]. Group 2: Impact on Pharmaceutical Companies - The first list of drugs affected includes approximately 50 high-spending injectable/infusion drugs under Medicare Part B, with Keytruda and Eylea alone accounting for 14% of the Part B budget [5]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that a 65% price reduction could significantly impact various pharmaceutical companies, with exposure levels varying widely [6][7]. Group 3: Medicaid Considerations - Medicaid is identified as a potential second battleground for cost reductions, with a focus on high-spending drugs like Humira and Trulicity, which could see a 10% to 15% impact if MFN pricing is extended [9]. - The White House is lobbying Congress to include Medicaid MFN pricing in budget reconciliation efforts, although there is significant political contention surrounding this proposal [9]. Group 4: 340B Drug Discount Program - The MFN pricing could amplify effects through the 340B drug discount program, which requires drug manufacturers to sell outpatient drugs at discounted prices to certain hospitals [10]. - If MFN pricing lowers the best price for Medicaid, it could increase the unit rebate amount (URA), further reducing the ceiling price for 340B, negatively impacting pharmaceutical companies' net revenues [10]. Group 5: Investor Considerations - Investors are advised to identify companies with high government payment exposure and limited alternatives, particularly those with over 50% revenue from government payers [11]. - Companies with strong pipelines and diversified pricing power are expected to fare better in the face of these pricing pressures [11].