Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate downward. Aluminum may experience pressure and oscillation. Zinc's market rebound is likely to be limited. Lead may face pressure. Nickel and stainless - steel are in a state of adjustment. Tin is in a state of high - level shock. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan. Industrial silicon will return to fundamental - led trading. Polysilicon will oscillate within a wide range [1]. Group 3: Summary by Product Copper - **Price and Market Sentiment**: US trade policies and economic data have affected market sentiment. The US stock market decline has led to a return of copper prices. The market expects an 8 - month interest rate cut in the US, increasing the sentiment of interest - rate cut trading [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Shanghai copper has significantly reduced its positions. The social inventory has increased due to the arrival of domestic and imported copper, with general consumption and tight raw material quotes [1]. - **Overseas Supply**: LME copper inventory is at 13.95 million tons. A mine in Chile has suspended operations, and Japan's Mitsubishi may cut production due to tight TC [1]. - **Trend**: Copper prices may face resistance at the 60 - day moving average. LME copper may oscillate down to $3,500 [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina remains at a historical high, with an increase in total inventory and an oversupply situation. The price of bauxite overseas is firm, limiting the downward space [1]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is around 4.4 million tons, with limited supply elasticity [1]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum - processing leading enterprises has slightly decreased. Different aluminum products have different demand situations [1]. - **Inventory and Spot**: The social inventory of aluminum has increased, and the spot is at a discount. The weekly output of aluminum rods has increased for two consecutive weeks [1]. - **Trend**: Aluminum ingots may face pressure and oscillation. Pay attention to the support around 20,200 yuan. The demand for aluminum rods is not overly pessimistic [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market**: The zinc market has returned to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. The main contract of Shanghai zinc has fallen by 2.47%, and LME zinc has fallen by 3.52% [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: LME zinc inventory has increased to 100,800 tons. The term structure of Shanghai zinc has flattened. The TC has risen in August, and domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventory [1]. - **Consumption**: The terminal consumption has not improved fundamentally. The demand in August is weak, but there is a possibility of policy support during the "Golden September and Silver October" [1]. - **Trend**: The zinc market is mainly dominated by the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand. Look for short - selling opportunities around 23,500 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market and Price**: The domestic lead inventory has continued to rise, and the price has fallen. The US dollar index has rebounded, and LME lead has also declined [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: LME lead inventory has increased to 276,000 tons. Some domestic smelters have maintenance plans [1]. - **Consumption**: The consumption of some areas has improved, but the impact of rainfall and tariffs on demand needs further verification [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead may oscillate between 16,600 - 17,300 yuan. Wait for inventory guidance [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market and Price**: The speculation of "anti - involution" has ended, and the market has returned to fundamentals. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel has decreased, while that of stainless steel has increased [1]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The upstream price support has weakened. The inventory of nickel - iron and stainless steel has decreased, but the overall inventory level is still high [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai nickel is in the latter part of the rebound. Actively intervene in short positions [1]. Tin - **Market and Price**: The domestic and overseas tin prices have declined. The market is in a state of shock [1]. - **Supply**: Indonesia's tin production and sales have decreased. The market is concerned about the maintenance time of domestic large - scale factories [1]. - **Consumption**: The domestic inventory has increased, and LME tin inventory has also increased [1]. - **Trend**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average. Hold high - level short positions [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market and Price**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen, and the panic in the market has increased. The trading volume has decreased [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The power orders have decreased, and the downstream battery factories are preparing for the peak season. The inventory has been transferred, and the downstream has increased replenishment [1]. - **Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate futures may fluctuate around 70,000 yuan. Adopt a short - term low - buying strategy [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Market and Price**: The price of industrial silicon has adjusted by 15%, and the market has returned to fundamental - led trading [1]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The cost of the silicon - coal process has increased. The supply pressure still exists, and the social inventory has increased [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for industrial silicon has increased marginally. The production of an organic silicon factory has resumed [1]. - **Trend**: The market will be dominated by fundamentals, and the price will oscillate and adjust [1]. Polysilicon - **Market and Price**: The price of polysilicon has significantly adjusted. The market is more focused on cost accounting, and the expectation of capacity clearance has decreased [1]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of polysilicon is expected to increase to 120,000 tons in August. The factory inventory has decreased, and the downstream has replenished in advance [1]. - **Demand**: The price of silicon wafers is expected to rise, and the battery - sheet orders have improved [1]. - **Trend**: The PS2509 main contract may oscillate widely between 46,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton [1]. Group 4: Recommended Strategies - Hold short positions of silver futures from 288,000 - 270,000 yuan or enter new short positions at 270,000 yuan. The long - term fundamental trend suppresses high - level silver prices [1]. - Adopt a short - selling strategy for Shanghai aluminum with a stop - loss at 21,000 yuan/ton [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Zinc - The zinc market is in a long - term supply - side easing cycle. If the mine - end growth rate is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, after the "rush to export", if the tariff policy leads to insufficient terminal consumption resilience, the center of zinc prices may move down. In the long - term, a short - selling approach is recommended, focusing on the TC growth rate and marginal changes in downstream demand. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21000 - 21500 [2]. Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices do not have a clear and smooth trend. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits the decline of copper prices, while the weak macro - expectation restricts the upside space. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate. The "rush to export" demand has advanced subsequent demand, and the real demand side may face pressure in Q3. The US copper import tariff policy is a major uncertain variable. The main contract is expected to move between 77000 - 79500 [5]. Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and the subsequent demand is expected to be weak. Considering the pessimistic demand expectation, pay attention to the supply - side recovery rhythm. A short - selling approach is recommended at 260,000 - 265,000 based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [7]. Nickel - The nickel market is under continuous pressure from industrial overcapacity and weak consumption. In the short term, the fundamentals change little, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in a range. The main contract is expected to move between 118000 - 124000. Pay attention to the short - term disturbances from news [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a weak state. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the overall demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short term, the fundamentals are still under pressure. Pay attention to the steel mill's production - cut rhythm. The main contract is expected to move between 12400 - 13000 [12]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term fundamentals are expected to remain relatively loose. The medium - term support is around the cash cost of 2700. For electrolytic aluminum, the LME inventory decline and low domestic inventory support aluminum prices, with the support level around 20000. However, there is still a possibility of adjustment under the conditions of LME warehousing, domestic inventory accumulation, and weakening demand [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still under pressure. In June, there may be an oversupply situation. The market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract expected to move between 56000 - 62000. Pay attention to the upstream dynamics [15][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.18% to 22030 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The import loss was - 585 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.32 [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; imports were 2.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.40%; exports were 0.25 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 75.76%. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 58.60%, 55.12%, and 59.00% respectively. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3.24% to 7.96 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.60% to 12.7 million tons [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.36% to 78400 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The import loss was - 1206 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.06 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%; imports were 25.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23%. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production was 75.82%, and that of recycled copper rod production was 29.03%. The domestic social inventory increased by 0.76% to 14.59 million tons, the bonded - area inventory increased by 7.71% to 6.43 million tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 1.11% to 10.08 million tons, the LME inventory decreased by 3.99% to 9.92 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.78% to 19.99 million tons [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.42% to 263300 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 452.13% to 80.99 US dollars/ton. The import loss was - 10123 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.12 [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, tin ore imports were 13449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%; SMM refined tin production was 14840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37%; refined tin imports were 2076 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.04%; exports were 1770 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. The SMM refined tin average operating rate was 61.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.25% to 120625 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 was - 193 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was - 2926 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92 [9]. - **Cost and New - Energy Material Prices**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel decreased by 4.16% to 120887 yuan/ton. The battery - grade nickel sulfate average price decreased by 0.67% to 27400 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: In May, China's refined nickel production was 35350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%; imports were 8832 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.18%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.30% to 25693 tons, the social inventory increased by 0.02% to 39383 tons, the LME inventory increased by 0.76% to 205140 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 0.44% to 699972 tons [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12700 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.78% to 12700 yuan/ton. The basis difference increased by 23.73% to 365 yuan/ton [12]. - **Raw - Material Prices**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) remained unchanged at 60 US dollars/wet ton, and the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.32% to 921 yuan/nickel point [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 179.12 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.64% to 53.42 million tons, and the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.83% to 33.02 million tons [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.24% to 20720 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 180 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 0.79% to 3750 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.66%; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. The operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, etc. showed different degrees of change. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.39% to 44.90 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.59% to 34.5 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.08% to 60400 yuan/ton. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) increased by 447.37% to 1040 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72080 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%; demand was 83960 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.83%. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.49% to 97637 tons [15].