点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 2025年社服行业在经历了24年普遍的价格压力和同店下滑后，呈现出一定的企稳和筑底迹象（价格战趋缓、同店企稳转正或降幅收窄）。展望 2026，我们建议静待内需复苏和政策扩容带来量价拐点，优先看好具备自身增长动能的强内功综合性龙头和高成长性细分龙头，其次建议关注 顺周期属性较强、有望迎来拐点、潜在弹性较大的行业及公司。 服务连锁正当其时，分化中寻找穿越周期的胜者。 在服务消费占比提升、支撑连锁业态发展的基础设施日渐完备的背景下，未来看好更多优 质品牌涌现和壮大，而且外卖平台竞争、社保新规、预制菜话题关注等外部因素亦能从中长期优化供给竞争格局、利好优质头部企业，餐饮和 酒店是相对最容易孕育大公司的赛道。面对品牌之间分化和潮流生命周期困局的挑战，有望胜出和穿越周期的企业往往满足：1）切中了消费 者的质价比或情绪价值诉求；2）具备产品、运营、品牌、组织迭代的综合实力；3）能够捕获持续成长的驱动力（如产品店型模式创新、向下 向上扩容、出海与全球化、新业态等）。 静待餐饮文旅政策扩容带来需求回暖和量价拐点，继续看好强内功综合性龙头和高成长性细分龙头。餐饮 中饮品26年需关注 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The service chain industry in China has significant growth potential compared to the mature market in the U.S., which has 27 service consumption companies with a market value exceeding $10 billion, while China has only 7, indicating a vast market opportunity [1][4] - Service consumption demonstrates resilience and growth potential, serving as a key driver for long-term consumption upgrades, even during economic fluctuations [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The rise in chain store rates presents structural opportunities, as chains offer standardization and branding advantages over standalone stores, leading to higher occupancy rates and operational efficiency in the hotel sector [1][4] - The performance of the social service industry in the first half of 2025 saw rapid growth in certain sectors, such as tea drinks and hotels, which are less correlated with macroeconomic trends, resulting in superior stock performance and higher valuations [2][3] - Investment in service chains is justified by the emergence of scalable brands in China, such as Yum, Huazhu, and Haidilao, with trends indicating market expansion into lower-tier cities and upward market segmentation [3][4] Investment Considerations - When selecting service industry companies for investment, focus on product quality and operational strength to ensure long-term competitiveness and growth potential [7][10] - Different positioning strategies exist among brands: cost-oriented brands focus on extreme cost efficiency, while mid-to-high-end brands emphasize personalized experiences [9][10] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The hotel industry is currently in a downward cycle due to oversupply, with RevPAR not yet positive; however, large chain hotels with strong product capabilities and operational efficiency can still gain market share [20] - The trend of service chain brands expanding into lower-tier markets is notable, with brands like Huazhu and Mixue actively entering these areas [15][20] - The beverage industry is experiencing good growth, driven by consumer demand for quality and emotional value, with ready-to-drink beverages becoming popular [19][20] Risks and Challenges - The service chain industry faces risks during different lifecycle stages, particularly in the growth phase where rapid expansion may not be sustainable [10][11] - The restaurant sector shows a divergence in performance, with fast food brands generally performing well, while traditional dining experiences face challenges [18][19] Additional Insights - The infrastructure supporting the development of service chains includes improved supply chains, automation, and enhanced online and offline channels [5][6] - The phenomenon of brand and category exposure can enhance consumer recognition and sales, rather than causing market cannibalization [6][10] - The recent trend of the tea beverage industry shows a rapid iteration cycle, with some brands successfully navigating challenges to achieve recovery [12][16] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the potential and challenges within the service chain industry in China, along with investment considerations and market trends.

Core Viewpoint - The service chain sector is experiencing significant growth, with companies that possess strong internal capabilities and innovative business models outperforming in stock performance, despite a challenging consumption environment [2][5][39]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 1H25, the service sector saw a stable overall stock performance, with notable differentiation among sub-sectors. Companies in the ready-to-drink tea and restaurant segments that achieved same-store growth and robust expansion outperformed others [5][39]. - The leisure tourism demand has entered a normalized growth phase, but most tourism companies showed limited short-term performance increases, resulting in overall flat stock performance [5][39]. - The hotel industry continues to face cyclical pressures, with only a few companies like Atour showing strong stock performance due to rapid network expansion and retail growth [5][39]. - The duty-free sector is seeing a gradual recovery, with sales declines narrowing, but still not indicating a return to growth [5][39]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The focus remains on strong internal capabilities and high-growth niche leaders in the restaurant and beverage sectors, as they are expected to benefit from industry growth and market share gains [3][39]. - The service consumption sector is resilient and offers growth potential, supported by improved infrastructure and increasing consumer demand [17][20]. - The emergence of scalable chain brands indicates significant room for growth compared to mature markets, with only a fraction of Chinese service brands reaching valuations above $10 billion [18][20]. Group 3: Company Dynamics - Companies that excel in product, operational, brand, and organizational capabilities are more likely to succeed, especially in navigating the challenges of changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [22][28]. - Innovations in product offerings, store formats, and business models are crucial for driving growth, with examples including Luckin Coffee's online operations and the expansion strategies of various hotel brands [33][35]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with head-to-head comparisons of leading ready-to-drink tea and coffee brands revealing differences in pricing strategies and market positioning [36][37]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to present growth opportunities for comprehensive leaders and high-growth niche players, particularly as service consumption continues to evolve [2][39]. - The restaurant and hotel sectors are anticipated to experience varying degrees of recovery, with a focus on the performance of leading brands and their ability to adapt to market changes [44][46]. - The tourism sector is projected to see steady growth in travel volumes, although pricing pressures may persist [48][49].