行 华福证券 行 业 定 期 报 告 海南离岛免税政策方面，本周财政部等国家部委研究制定并出台 《公告》，为激发海南消费市场潜能注入新动力、拓展新空间，核心 包括品类拓展等利好政策，关注四季度海南封关主线下中国中免等海 南免税运营商。旅游标的方面，2025 年前三季度，国内居民出游人次 49.98 亿，比上年同期增加 7.61 亿，同比增长 18.0%，旅游出行 beta 不断向好，建议关注四季度冰雪游旺季公司长白山、大连圣亚，以及 拥有收并购预期的头部公司祥源文旅、西域旅游等。 黄金珠宝：税收新政落地，长期有望推动行业合规发展。 黄金税收新政发布后，针对黄金首饰产品，从上海金交所采购标 准黄金的增值税进项税抵扣额从 13%下降至 6%，企业税负成本增加， 预计成本压力将传导至终端，导致首饰产品价格提升。我们估计价格 变动短期将影响终端克重产品销售，长期看民众对高金价逐步接受后 终端消费有望回补，且水贝等渠道销售有望向合规金店转移。建议关 注一口价产品占比高的老铺黄金，公司产品价格相对稳定，金价持续 上行受益；其他建议关注潮宏基、菜百股份。 餐饮：关注具备成长动能的细分赛道龙头。 餐饮板块分化延续，看好具备成 ...

作为封关前的重要准备，离岛免税政策已于近期率先优化。财政部等部委10月17日联合发布的《关于调 整海南离岛旅客免税购物政策的公告》，从商品品类、享惠人群等多方面实现了突破。 "新政新增2个商品大类，优化调整3个商品细类，并首次将6类国产商品纳入免税范围。"王朔介绍，"同 时，政策将离岛且离境旅客明确纳入享惠主体，并便利岛民消费，允许一年内有离岛记录的岛民不限次 购买'即购即提'商品。" 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2025年12月18日，海南自由贸易港将迎来全岛封关运作的关键节点。这一以制度创新为核心的改革举 措，正推动海南实现更高水平对外开放。随着封关运作进入倒计时，市场关注点逐步从政策预期转向实 际效益的兑现。 "一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由"构建新型监管体系 国投证券商社首席分析师王朔在接受采访时表示，海南封关运作的核心在于"一线放开、二线管住、岛 内自由"的监管设计。她解释道，"一线放开"指海南与境外国家和地区之间实施最大限度自由便利的进 出政策，实现与国际市场的高效对接；"二线管住"指海南与内地之间在"一线"放开的基础上实施精准 化、安全化的管理措施，确 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in Hainan and the Hainan Free Trade Zone has experienced a significant surge, driven by the upcoming launch of the free trade port operations on December 18, which is expected to inject strong momentum into the region's industrial development [1][4]. Market Performance - Several stocks, including Kangzhi Pharmaceutical, Hainan Haiyao, and Xilong Holdings, have seen substantial gains, with Kangzhi Pharmaceutical hitting a 20% increase to 10.62, while Hainan Haiyao and Xilong Holdings rose by 10.08% and 9.99% respectively [2][1]. - The overall market sentiment is buoyed by the anticipation of policy benefits as the free trade port's operational date approaches [3]. Policy Developments - The free trade port's operations will implement a system characterized by "one line open, two lines controlled, and free movement within the island," which is expected to reshape the industrial ecosystem in Hainan [4]. - Recent adjustments to the duty-free shopping policy have already shown positive effects, with a first-day shopping amount of 78.549 million yuan, a 6.1% increase from the previous day, and a total of 506 million yuan in the first week, marking a 34.86% year-on-year growth [4]. Industry Opportunities - The "zero tariff" policy has expanded to cover various transportation modes, including air, land, and sea, which is expected to create new opportunities for related industries [5]. - Securities firms are optimistic about the long-term value brought by the free trade port, predicting growth in the duty-free market and modern service industries such as finance and tourism [6]. Company Responses - Companies like Haixia Co. and Shengshi Technology are actively responding to the opportunities presented by the free trade port, with Haixia Co. expecting increased traffic and investment due to the new policies [7]. - Hainan's only complete vehicle manufacturer, Haima Automobile, is leveraging the hydrogen energy sector and has already established a hydrogen production and refueling station, aiming to capitalize on the free trade port's policies [7]. Future Investment Trends - The upcoming free trade port operations are seen as a turning point for investment logic in Hainan, shifting focus from B2C consumption to B2B industrial upgrades and high-value services [8]. - Key investment themes include modern logistics and trade services, high-tech and green energy sectors, and high-value "tourism+" services such as medical care and international education [8].

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Free Trade Zone concept stocks experienced a significant surge, with the overall sector rising by 3.8% amid a weak market backdrop, indicating strong investor interest and optimism regarding upcoming policy changes [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Hainan Free Trade concept stocks collectively surged, with notable gains including 康芝药业 reaching a 20% limit up, and several others like 欣龙控股 and 海南海药 hitting 10% limit up [4]. - The overall performance of the Hainan Free Trade sector reflects a robust market response, with key stocks such as 海马汽车 and 海南矿业 also participating in the rally [1][4]. Group 2: Policy Changes and Implications - The full island closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially commence on December 18, 2025, which will significantly expand the range of "zero tariff" goods from 1,900 to approximately 6,600 items, covering about 74% of products [4][8]. - The new policies will lower the threshold for companies to benefit from tax exemptions and optimize the calculation methods for value-added processing, which is expected to reduce costs and extend supply chains for businesses [4][9]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The ongoing optimization of the duty-free shopping policy is anticipated to enhance retail sales and tourism in Hainan, with the number of duty-free product categories increasing from 45 to 47 [8][9]. - The introduction of "zero tariff" policies for transportation tools and yachts has already resulted in significant tax savings, with reported tax reductions of approximately 1.97 billion yuan for imported cargo aircraft [5][6]. Group 4: Future Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the focus of investment in Hainan is shifting from B2C consumption to B2B industrial upgrades and high-value service industries, with three core investment themes identified: modern logistics and trade services, high-tech and green energy, and "tourism+" services [9][10]. - The strategic positioning of Hainan as a new hub for domestic and international circulation is expected to attract significant investment, particularly in emerging industries such as aerospace, digital economy, and green energy [10].

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Free Trade Zone concept stocks experienced a significant surge, with the overall sector rising by 3.8% amid a weak market backdrop, indicating strong investor interest and optimism regarding the upcoming policy changes in Hainan [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Hainan Free Trade Zone stocks, including Xunlong Holdings and Hainan Haiyao, saw rapid increases, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up within minutes of market opening [1][4]. - By 14:00, stocks such as Kangzhi Pharmaceutical and Hainan Mining also reached their daily limit, showcasing a broad-based rally in the sector [4]. Group 2: Policy Changes and Implications - The full island closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start on December 18, 2025, with significant expansions in the range of "zero tariff" products from 1,900 to approximately 6,600 items, covering about 74% of all goods [4][8]. - The new policies will lower the threshold for companies to benefit from tax exemptions and expand the range of imported materials, which is expected to enhance the development prospects of local retail, tourism, manufacturing, and cross-border e-commerce sectors [1][4]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The "zero tariff" policy has already led to substantial tax reductions, with the import value of goods under this policy reaching 9.834 billion yuan and tax exemptions totaling 2.585 billion yuan as of September this year [6]. - The introduction of new aircraft under the "zero tariff" policy has significantly reduced costs for companies, exemplified by a recent Airbus A330 acquisition that saved approximately 114 million yuan in taxes [4][5]. Group 4: Future Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the new policies will catalyze a shift in investment focus from B2C consumption to B2B industrial upgrades and high-value service sectors, with particular attention on modern logistics, high-tech industries, and tourism-related services [9][10]. - The strategic positioning of Hainan as a new hub for domestic and international trade is expected to attract significant investment, driven by its unique policy advantages and the ongoing restructuring of supply chains [10].

Core Insights - The Hainan sector experienced a strong rally on November 14, driven by favorable policies and expectations of the full closure operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port, with stocks like Kangzhi Pharmaceutical and Hainan Haiyao hitting the daily limit [1][3] - The direct catalyst for this rally was the significant impact of the new duty-free shopping policy, which saw a nearly 35% year-on-year increase in shopping amounts and a corresponding rise in the number of shoppers during the first week of implementation [3] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially launch its full closure operation on December 18, which is expected to enhance foreign openness and benefit industries such as tourism and retail [4] Market Performance - The Hainan sector has shown strong performance throughout the year, with an overall increase of over 40%, and Haima Automobile leading with a remarkable 164% rise [3] - The net profit of listed companies in the Hainan sector grew nearly 25% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with several companies achieving double-digit growth or successfully turning losses into profits [3] Investment Trends - Leveraged funds have already begun to position themselves in the Hainan sector, with net purchases exceeding 4 billion yuan this year, indicating strong market confidence in the future prospects of the sector [4] - Institutions believe that the duty-free policy will continue to support the consumption market in Hainan, while the full closure operation will open new avenues for economic development [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the social services industry, particularly in the hotel and duty-free sectors, indicating a recovery trend and structural optimization [2][5]. Core Insights - The hotel industry shows resilience during the off-peak season, with a national occupancy rate (OCC) of 66.2%, a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point, and an average daily rate (ADR) of 396.6 yuan, up 5% year-on-year [2][5]. - Duty-free sales in September reached 1.733 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, marking the first positive growth in 18 months, despite a 7.1% decline in shopping visitors [2][17]. - The report highlights a shift in the duty-free market from quantity to quality, with an increase in average spending per visit, indicating a trend towards consumption upgrades [17][24]. Summary by Sections Hotel Sector - The hotel industry is experiencing steady recovery, with RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) increasing by 6% year-on-year to 263 yuan, supported by a 2.5% growth in available rooms [5][11]. - High-end hotels are showing better performance compared to budget and mid-range hotels, with occupancy rates in first-tier cities reaching 83.2% [10][11]. - The average room price has risen approximately 6% since mid-September, indicating a move away from a "price for volume" strategy [11][12]. Duty-Free Sector - The duty-free market is undergoing seasonal adjustments, with sales supported by an increase in average spending per person, which reached 6,181 yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year [17][20]. - Recent policy changes aim to enhance the duty-free shopping experience, including the introduction of new product categories and improved operational flexibility for duty-free stores [24][25]. - The anticipated "full closure of Hainan Island" is expected to facilitate cross-border consumption and enhance market vitality, providing new growth momentum for the duty-free industry [25][26]. Market Performance - During the week of November 3 to November 7, the commercial retail index rose by 0.31%, while the social services index increased by 0.11%, ranking 17th and 19th respectively among Shenwan's primary industries [2][28]. - The report suggests a focus on specific companies within the tourism, exhibition, human resources, hotel, and duty-free sectors as potential investment opportunities [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% [4][26][29]. Core Insights - The implementation of the new duty-free shopping policy in Hainan has led to a remarkable 35% year-on-year increase in shopping amounts during its first week, with total shopping reaching 506 million CNY [2][18]. - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a 4.04% increase during the reporting period, surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 3.65 percentage points [1][13][14]. - The report highlights various initiatives aimed at enhancing consumer spending, including the "Urban Commercial Quality Improvement Action Plan" issued by multiple government departments to stimulate urban commercial vitality [2][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The consumer services sector saw a notable increase of 4.04% from October 27 to November 7, 2025, ranking fifth among all industry indices [1][13][14]. - Key stocks that performed well include Caesar Travel (up 18.39%), China Duty Free (up 12.01%), and Quanjude (up 11.86%) [1][14][15]. Industry and Company Developments - The new duty-free policy in Hainan has expanded the range of duty-free goods to 47 categories, significantly boosting consumer spending [2][18]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have launched a plan to enhance urban commercial structures, aiming to create a more efficient and consumer-friendly shopping environment [2][19]. - Notable corporate actions include Starbucks selling 60% of its Chinese business for 4 billion USD, and Dazhong Dianping committing 30 billion CNY to upgrade its information infrastructure over the next five years [2][22][21]. Stock Holdings Analysis - The report notes changes in stock holdings among key companies, with Haidilao and Tianli International Holdings seeing increases in shareholding percentages [3][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies such as Atour, Huazhu Group, China Duty Free, and Ctrip, among others, for potential investment opportunities [4][26].

Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive investment outlook for the duty-free sector, particularly focusing on China Duty Free Group (中国中免) as a key investment opportunity [2][3]. Core Insights - The upcoming 2026 Spring Festival, which will be the longest in history, is expected to significantly boost the tourism market, with a surge in demand for long-distance and outbound travel [2]. - The initial effects of the new duty-free policy in Hainan are evident, with a reported duty-free shopping amount of 78.549 million yuan on the first day, marking a 6.1% increase compared to the previous day [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies that are likely to exceed expectations in their Q3 reports, including Greenlink Technology (绿联科技) and Jiajiayue (家家悦) [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Duty-Free Sector - The report indicates that the new duty-free policy has led to a notable increase in shopping activity, with 54,800 items sold and 12,700 visitors on the first day of implementation [2]. - China Duty Free Group is highlighted as a key focus for investment due to its strong market position [2]. Jewelry and Gold - The report notes significant price fluctuations in gold, with leading jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook (周大福) and Lao Feng Xiang (老凤祥) raising prices substantially [2]. - Consumers are reportedly buying gold at lower prices, benefiting companies such as Cai Bai Co. (菜百股份) and China Gold (中国黄金) [2]. Retail and E-commerce - The report mentions a 13-fold increase in order volume for the top 300 brands on JD.com during the Double Eleven shopping festival [2]. - Companies like Focus Technology (焦点科技) and Anker Innovations (安克创新) are identified as key players in the e-commerce sector [2]. Education Sector - The report highlights the ongoing education reform and suggests focusing on companies like Xueda Education (学大教育) and Tianli International Holdings (天立国际控股) [2]. AI and Optical Technology - Continuous iterations in AI glasses technology are noted, with a focus on companies like Conant Optical (康耐特光学) [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [4][26]. Core Views - The social services sector is expected to benefit from favorable national policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, leading to a continuous recovery in valuations during the reporting period [4][26]. - The report highlights a significant increase in duty-free shopping in Hainan, with a year-on-year growth of 35% in the first week of the new policy implementation [2][18]. - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a reported increase of 4.04% during the period from October 27 to November 7, 2025, surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 3.65 percentage points [1][13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer services sector rose by 4.04%, ranking fifth among all industry indices, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by only 0.39% [1][13]. - Notable stock performances included Caesar Travel (up 18.39%), China Duty Free (up 12.01%), and Quanjude (up 11.86%) [1][14]. Industry and Company Dynamics - Various regions in China are piloting spring and autumn vacation systems for primary and secondary schools to optimize student holiday structures [2][17]. - The new duty-free shopping policy in Hainan has expanded the range of products available, contributing to a significant increase in shopping amounts [2][18]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued a plan to enhance urban commercial quality, aiming to stimulate consumption [2][19]. - Ele.me has initiated a brand refresh, testing the name "Taobao Flash Purchase" to enhance delivery services [2][20]. - Starbucks has sold a 60% stake in its China business to Boyu Capital for $4 billion, valuing the joint venture at over $13 billion [2][22]. Stock Holdings Analysis - Core stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, such as Haidilao and Tianli International Holdings, saw increases in shareholding percentages during the reporting period [3][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies like Atour, Huazhu Group, China Duty Free, and Ctrip, among others, for investment opportunities [4][26]. - Mid-term recommendations include China Duty Free, Meituan, and Haidilao, indicating a broad range of companies across the social services sector [4][26].