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《金融》日报-20251114
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 02:34
Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Presents the latest data on stock index futures spreads including price differences between futures and spot, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios, along with their changes from the previous day and historical percentile rankings [1] Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Price Differences**: F futures - spot price difference is - 7.17, H is - 4.87, IC is - 86.29, and IM is - 112.18 with various percentage changes and historical percentile rankings [1] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads such as next month - current month, quarterly month - current month, etc. are provided for IF, IH, IC, and IM, showing their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are given with their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [1] Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Displays the latest data on treasury bond futures spreads including basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads, along with their changes from the previous day and historical percentile rankings [2] Summary by Category - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.5208, TF is 1.2620, T is 1.3841, and TL is 1.2692 with corresponding changes and historical percentile rankings [2] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL such as current quarter - next quarter, current quarter - distant quarter, etc. are presented with their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are provided with their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [2] Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Provides the latest data on precious metals including domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, and inventory and position data, along with their changes [4] Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2512 contract closed at 961.22 yuan/gram, AG2512 at 12588 yuan/kilogram; foreign COMEX gold at 4174.50, COMEX silver at 52.23 dollars/ounce with corresponding changes [4] - **Spot Prices**: London gold at 4170.87, London silver at 52.33 dollars/ounce, Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D at 958.67 yuan/gram, silver T + D at 12563 yuan/kilogram with corresponding changes [4] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 2.55, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis is - 25 with corresponding changes and historical percentile rankings [4] - **Price Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver ratio is 79.93, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio is 76.36 with corresponding changes [4] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.11%, 2 - year is 3.58%, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield is 1.83%, US dollar index is 99.18, offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.0974 with corresponding changes [4] - **Inventory and Position**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 90426, silver inventory is 584014 kilograms; COMEX gold and silver inventories, registered warrants, and ETF positions are provided with their changes [4] Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Offers the latest data on the container shipping industry including spot quotes, freight indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data, along with their changes [5] Summary by Category - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates from different shipping companies show various changes [5] - **Freight Indices**: SCFIS (European route) settled at 1504.80, SCFIS (US West route) at 1329.71; Shanghai Export Container Freight Index and its sub - indices show different changes [5] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2512 (main contract) futures price is 1782.3 with a 1.88% increase, and the basis (main contract) is 21.7 with a - 33.64% change [5] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remains unchanged; Shanghai port on - time rate, port calls, monthly export amount, overseas economic indicators, and OECD leading indicators show different changes [5]
纯苯苯乙烯日报:纯苯苯乙烯港口库存回落-20251111
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:58
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View of the Report - Pure benzene port inventory decreased slightly, but its basis and processing fee continued to be weak. Domestic production capacity utilization of pure benzene has bottomed out and rebounded, with the impact of previous sanctions on refinery operations easing, and the pressure of incoming shipments increasing intermittently. Downstream demand remained weak, with styrene in concentrated maintenance, phenol production declining again, CPL production at a low level, and adipic acid production rebounding [2]. - Styrene ports continued to experience a slight reduction in inventory, with short - term low - level production capacity utilization, and maintenance only decreasing at the end of November. EB factory inventory further decreased, and port inventory began to decline. However, attention should be paid to downstream demand, as EPS production capacity utilization dropped rapidly, ABS and PS production capacity utilization remained low, and the inventory of the three major hard plastics only slightly decreased from high levels [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene basis and inter - period spreads include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [7][10]. - Figures related to EB basis and inter - period spreads include the EB main contract basis and the styrene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [15][18]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Figures related to production profits and spreads include styrene non - integrated production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea spread, naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, pure benzene import profit, and styrene import profit [21][24][33]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Production Capacity Utilization - For pure benzene, figures show the East China port inventory and production capacity utilization [39]. - For styrene, figures cover the East China port inventory, production capacity utilization, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [42][44]. 4. Styrene Downstream Production Capacity Utilization and Production Profits - Figures display the production capacity utilization and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [52][53][57]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Production Capacity Utilization and Production Profits - Figures show the production capacity utilization and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other downstream products [60][68][73]. Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy provided [3]. - Basis and Inter - period: Consider a long - short spread strategy for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices and a short - long spread strategy for BZ2603 - BZ2605 at high prices [3]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [3].
纯苯苯乙烯日报:EB下游提货尚可,EB基差小幅走强-20250918
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 05:09
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the pure benzene market, attention is on the commissioning progress of Yulong Cracking 2. From August to September, there is a concentrated increase in new production capacity, with domestic existing plants operating, and a slowdown in the rhythm of imports. Downstream提货 has reached its peak and declined, but the volume is still acceptable, leading to a decline in port inventories. However, the downstream operations of pure benzene remain weak, with significant inventory pressure in the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain, and a decline in CPL operations. Aniline operations have also decreased again, with inventory pressure in the MDI downstream of aniline. Phenol operations have also decreased, affected by bisphenol A. The previously stable - operating styrene is gradually undergoing maintenance, which may affect the demand for pure benzene提货, and the downstream performance is below expectations [3]. - In the styrene market, the volume of downstream提货 in the peak season remains at a relatively high level. The port basis of EB continues to strengthen slightly, and the port inventory of EB still needs further reduction. Currently, the absolute level of port inventory is still relatively high. There will be short - term maintenance of EB in the first and middle of September, with operations gradually reaching a peak and then declining, and port inventories starting to decline. However, operations will pick up again in the second half of September. Among the downstream of EB, the recovery of PS and EPS operations is satisfactory, and the operations of ABS have also increased from a low level, but the inventory pressure is large [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - term Spreads - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 82 yuan/ton (+1), and the spot - M2 spread of East China pure benzene is - 15 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 42 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee of pure benzene is 136 US dollars/ton (+6 US dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 116 US dollars/ton (+7 US dollars/ton). The US - South Korea spread of pure benzene is 53.6 US dollars/ton (-6.0 US dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 368 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 13.40 million tons (-1.00 million tons) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 159,000 tons (-17,500 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 78,000 tons (-9,000 tons), and the operating rate is 75.0% (-4.8%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 142 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 61.02% (+8.49%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 108 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 61.90% (+0.90%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 216 yuan/ton (+18 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 70.00% (+1.00%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1875 yuan/ton (-35), and the operating rate is 86.21% (-4.21%) [1]. - Phenol - ketone: The production profit is - 247 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate of phenol is 70.50% (+1.50%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is - 29 yuan/ton (+70), and the operating rate is 65.21% (-2.75%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1378 yuan/ton (+14), and the operating rate is 64.20% (+4.20%) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: None [4]. - Basis and Inter - term: Do a positive spread for the EB2510 - EB2511 spread when it is low [4]. - Cross - variety: Do a widening spread for the EB2510 - BZ2603 spread in the short - term when it is low [4].
《金融》日报-20250609
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 06:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views The reports mainly present the latest data on various futures, including price differences, basis, ratios, and related economic indicators, without explicitly stating a core view. 3. Summary by Category a. Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The report provides the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of price differences for various stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including spot-futures price differences and inter - period price differences [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: It presents cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., along with their changes and historical quantiles [1]. b. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and Cross - Period Spreads**: The report shows the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of basis and cross - period spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL treasury bond futures, as well as cross - variety spreads [2]. c. Precious Metals Futures - **Prices and Changes**: It provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals (gold and silver), along with their changes [3]. d. Shipping Industry Futures - **Spot Quotes and Indexes**: The report includes spot quotes for Shanghai - Europe shipping, shipping index settlement prices, and Shanghai export container freight rates, along with their changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: It presents futures prices and basis for shipping futures contracts, as well as fundamental data such as shipping capacity supply, foreign trade - related indicators, and overseas economic data [6]. e. Trading Calendar - **Data and Information**: The report lists overseas and domestic data/information, including macro - data, agricultural products, black and non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and special commodities, along with their release times and data sources [7].