2025/12/23 22:18 铀价为何即将飙升 | ZeroHedge 优质的 铀价为何即将飙升？ 泰勒·德登 2025年12⽉23⽇，星期⼆，下午12:25 ⾼盛在其12 ⽉份发布的《核能新进展报告》（对于所有对核⼯业最新发展感兴趣的⼈来说，这是⼀份必读报告）中，发布了 ⼀张图表，不仅证实了为什么铀价将在未来⼏年飙升，⽽且还证实了为什么铀很可能成为下⼀个⻩⾦。 但我们先回顾⼀下事情的来⻰去脉。 正如⾼盛策略师布莱恩·李在更新其上下游核⼯业的供需和定价模型时所写的那样，尽管驱动每个市场的机制不同，但2026 年现货价格和⻓期价格都存在上涨⻛险。 先来看前者，现货市场往往更注重短期利益，其价格主要受市场冲击驱动，例如减产、需求⼤幅增⻓、信托相关的融资（例 如 Sprott）和购买，以及现货市场价格与⻓期价格之间的差异，从⽽导致机会主义套利交易的需求增加。 ⻓期市场是公⽤事业合同的主要市场，由于公⽤事业公司通常会签订未来 3-10 年的交付合同，⾼盛认为⻓期市场更能反映 ⻓期供需关系。 ⾃8⽉以来，随着各国继续推进新建核电站计划，⻓期价格已从每磅80美元上涨⾄每磅86美元。此外，2024年以及2025年⼤ 部 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Uranium Corporation officially listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, becoming the first natural uranium stock in the A-share market, with a significant opening price increase and high trading volume [1][3]. Company Overview - China Uranium is a key subsidiary of China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), primarily engaged in the mining, sales, and trade of natural uranium resources, as well as the comprehensive utilization of associated radioactive mineral resources [3][4]. - The company holds 19 mining rights and 6 exploration rights across uranium-rich regions in China, including Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, and Hunan [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported projected revenues of 10.535 billion yuan, 14.8 billion yuan, and 17.279 billion yuan for the years 2022 to 2024, with net profits of 1.52 billion yuan, 1.51 billion yuan, and 1.71 billion yuan respectively [6][7]. - The compound annual growth rates for revenue and net profit over the last three years were 28.07% and 6.12% respectively [6]. IPO and Future Plans - The IPO proceeds will be directed towards domestic natural uranium operations and the comprehensive utilization of associated radioactive mineral resources, as well as enhancing liquidity [3][4]. - The company aims to strengthen its strategic position as a "nuclear power granary" and enhance its capabilities in supporting national energy security [4][7]. Technological Advancements - China Uranium has developed advanced in-situ leaching technologies for complex sandstone-type uranium ores and has pioneered resource recovery technologies for associated minerals [4]. - The company has achieved rapid production milestones, exemplified by the "National Uranium No. 1" demonstration project, which produced its first uranium product within a year of construction [4].

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasizes that energy issues are central to economic and national security due to immediate threats and long-term risks [1] - The energy landscape is increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly concerning critical minerals [2] Group 1: Energy Security and Supply Chain Risks - The supply chain for critical minerals is highly concentrated, with a single country dominating the refining of 19 out of 20 strategic minerals, averaging a market share of about 70% [2] - Over half of the strategic minerals are subject to some form of export control as of November 2025, highlighting the urgent need to enhance resilience against weather-related risks and cyber threats [2] Group 2: Electricity Demand and Economic Impact - Electricity demand is projected to grow approximately 40% by 2035 in established and committed policy scenarios, and over 50% in net-zero scenarios by 2050 [3] - Data center investments are expected to reach $580 billion by 2025, surpassing global oil supply expenditures of $540 billion, indicating a significant shift in energy consumption patterns [3] Group 3: Shifts in Global Energy Demand - The center of global energy demand is shifting from China to emerging economies like India and Southeast Asia, with these regions increasingly shaping energy market dynamics [4] - From 2010 onwards, China accounted for over half of the global oil and gas demand growth, but this trend is expected to diversify as new emerging economies contribute to future growth [4] Group 4: Renewable Energy Growth - Renewable energy, particularly solar photovoltaic (PV), is growing faster than any other major energy source, with China expected to account for 45%-60% of global deployment in the next decade [5] - The growth of renewable technologies is accompanied by significant advancements in energy efficiency [5] Group 5: Nuclear Energy Revival - Over 40 countries are incorporating nuclear energy into their strategies, with more than 70 GW of new nuclear capacity currently under construction, marking the highest level in 30 years [6] - The global nuclear capacity is expected to increase by at least one-third by 2035, driven by innovations and new business models [6]

Core Viewpoint - Germany has officially abandoned nuclear power, marking the end of an era that has provided electricity for approximately 60 years, raising concerns about rising electricity costs for consumers and the impact on energy-intensive industries [1][2]. Group 1: Germany's Nuclear Phase-Out - Germany is the first major industrial nation to completely phase out nuclear power, which has been a significant source of electricity since the 1960s [1]. - The decision to abandon nuclear energy was solidified after the Fukushima disaster in 2011, leading to the closure of the last three nuclear plants in April 2023 [2]. - The closure of nuclear plants has resulted in increased carbon emissions, as Germany has had to rely more on coal to meet electricity demands, creating a conflict between environmental goals and energy policy [2][3]. Group 2: Public Sentiment and Economic Impact - A significant portion of the German public opposes the nuclear phase-out, with surveys indicating that nearly two-thirds of Germans are against closing the remaining nuclear plants [4]. - Since 2011, German consumers have incurred an additional cost of €57 billion due to the transition away from nuclear energy [4]. - The high electricity prices are prompting energy-intensive companies to relocate production to Eastern Europe or Asia, contributing to a decline in Germany's industrial competitiveness [5]. Group 3: Energy Transition Challenges - Germany aims for 80% of its electricity to come from renewable sources by 2030, but currently, renewables only account for about 57% of the energy supply, leading to instability [6]. - The country has become a net importer of electricity, with significant imports recorded in the second quarter of 2023, highlighting the challenges of domestic energy production [6]. - The reliance on gas-fired power plants is increasing, with plans to invest €20 billion in new gas plants to ensure energy security, but this may not lower electricity costs significantly [7]. Group 4: Future of Nuclear Energy in Europe - The EU plans to increase nuclear capacity from 98 GW to 109 GW by 2050, requiring an investment of €205 billion for new plants and €36 billion for extending existing reactors [3]. - Countries like Poland are moving forward with nuclear projects, contrasting Germany's phase-out, as the EU seeks to reduce dependence on foreign energy and achieve climate goals [2][3].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rebound, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,433.70 points, up 273.55 points, representing a 1.05% increase [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also saw gains, closing at 6,171.0 points, up 111.19 points, or 1.83% [3] Company Focus - Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (00412.HK) faced a sharp decline, dropping over 18% to a price of 1.92 HKD. The company has seen a cumulative drop of over 56% in October and a staggering 74.79% in September. Its highest price this year reached 18.95 HKD [5] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings will be removed from the Hong Kong Stock Connect eligible securities list effective October 27, 2025 [5] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector continued to strengthen, with notable gains from companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) up over 5%, Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) and Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) both up over 4%, and several others showing positive performance [7] - Nuclear power stocks led the gains, with China National Nuclear Power (02302.HK) rising over 10%, and other companies like Dongfang Electric (01072.HK) and China General Nuclear Power (00611.HK) also showing strong increases. The National Energy Administration reported that global nuclear power generation is expected to reach a near ten-year high in 2024, with continued strong growth forecasts [8] Brokerage Activity - Chinese brokerage stocks were active, with Xingsheng International rising over 8%, Guotai Junan International up over 3%, and others showing positive movement. Analysts noted that the brokerage sector is currently "relatively undervalued with high year-on-year growth in performance" [9] Future Outlook - Zheshang Securities suggested that the Hong Kong market may have entered a favorable zone, with expectations of a return to a depreciation trend for the US dollar, potentially triggering liquidity easing operations by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. The Hang Seng Tech Index remains nearly 10% below its early October peak, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [11] - Huatai Securities highlighted that cyclical sectors (such as metals, materials, and energy) and technology sectors maintain high prosperity, while consumer sectors show signs of marginal improvement. The market sentiment has returned to neutral, with balanced risks [11]

Core Insights - The forum focused on the theme "Nuclear Power Empowering the Future, Innovation Leading Change," gathering over 150 representatives from various sectors to discuss the nuclear power industry [1][3] Industry Overview - The global nuclear power generation is expected to reach a near ten-year high in 2024, with strong growth anticipated [4] - By 2050, global nuclear power installed capacity is projected to exceed 900 million kilowatts, doubling from current levels [4] - China plays a crucial role in this growth, with 59 operational nuclear reactors and a total installed capacity of 62.48 million kilowatts [4] Safety and Performance - China's operational nuclear reactors have achieved over 600 reactor years of safe and stable operation, maintaining the highest WANO comprehensive index score globally for nine consecutive years [4] - 43.18% of the world's top-performing nuclear reactors are from China, highlighting its leadership in nuclear safety [4] Technological Advancements - The "Hualong One" reactor design signifies China's complete autonomy in nuclear power equipment design and manufacturing, with over 400 key equipment items being independently developed [5][6] - The nuclear industry in China is advancing towards digital transformation, with the "Hemu System" being implemented across 33 reactors of various technologies [7][8] Future Directions - The forum emphasized the importance of collaborative innovation in developing nuclear fusion as a "ultimate clean energy," with significant research efforts ongoing in China [9]

Core Insights - The importance of nuclear energy is increasingly highlighted in the global transition to a clean and low-carbon energy structure, with expectations for strong growth in nuclear power generation through 2024 and beyond [1][2] Group 1: Global Nuclear Power Landscape - By 2024, global nuclear power generation is expected to reach a near ten-year high, with multiple international agencies raising their nuclear energy development forecasts for four consecutive years [1] - It is projected that by 2050, the global installed nuclear power capacity will exceed 900 million kilowatts, achieving a doubling in size [1] - China has the world's largest total installed nuclear power capacity, with 59 operational nuclear units and a total capacity of 62.48 million kilowatts, alongside 53 approved units under construction with a capacity of 62.93 million kilowatts, bringing the total to over 125 million kilowatts [2] Group 2: Safety and Technological Advancements - China's operational nuclear units have achieved over 600 reactor years of safe and stable operation, maintaining the highest WANO comprehensive index score globally for nine consecutive years [2] - The "Hualong One" reactor design signifies China's mastery of key equipment design and manufacturing technologies, fostering innovation among over 5,400 upstream and downstream enterprises [2] Group 3: Digital Transformation in Nuclear Industry - The Chinese nuclear power industry is rapidly advancing its digital transformation, with significant breakthroughs in autonomous control systems, such as the "Hemu System," which is now widely applied across various reactor types [7] - The introduction of the "Smart Nuclear Power" operating system in April 2025 integrates AI, big data, and IoT technologies, enhancing the intelligence of nuclear power plant operations [7][8] - The shift from document-driven to model-driven and data-driven engineering management is being implemented in nuclear construction projects, improving efficiency and oversight [8]

Group 1 - As of now, China's total installed nuclear power capacity has exceeded 125 million kilowatts, maintaining the world's leading position [1] - The global nuclear power generation in 2024 is expected to reach a nearly ten-year high, with strong growth anticipated [1] - Multiple international authoritative organizations have raised their nuclear energy development forecasts for four consecutive years, predicting that by 2050, global nuclear power installed capacity will exceed 900 million kilowatts, achieving a doubling growth [1] Group 2 - China is one of the few countries with a complete nuclear power industrial system, currently operating 59 nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 62.48 million kilowatts [1] - There are 53 approved units under construction, with an installed capacity of 62.93 million kilowatts [1] - China's operational nuclear power units have safely and stably operated for over 600 reactor years, ranking first globally in the World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) comprehensive index score for nine consecutive years [1] Group 3 - "Batch production" is becoming a key pathway for China's nuclear power to reach a higher level [1] - The domestically developed third-generation million-kilowatt nuclear power technology "Hualong One" has a total of 41 units under construction and in operation, ranking first globally [1] Group 4 - China General Nuclear Power Group has surpassed 100 million kilowatts in clean energy installations, including nuclear and renewable energy [2] - The implementation of the "Atomic Energy Law of the People's Republic of China" is expected to promote the healthy and sustainable development of China's nuclear energy sector [2] - Nuclear energy is anticipated to play a greater role in addressing climate change [2]

Group 1 - The global nuclear power generation is expected to reach a nearly ten-year high in 2024, with strong growth anticipated, and global nuclear installed capacity is projected to exceed 900 million kilowatts by 2050, doubling from current levels [1] - China currently operates 59 nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 62.48 million kilowatts and has 53 units under construction, bringing the total installed capacity to over 125 million kilowatts, maintaining the world's leading position [1] - China's nuclear power units have operated safely for over 600 reactor years and have ranked first globally in the WANO comprehensive index for nine consecutive years, with 43.18% of the world's top-performing units coming from China [1] Group 2 - China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) has surpassed 100 million kilowatts in clean energy installations, emphasizing its mission to develop clean energy for the benefit of humanity [2] - The implementation of the new Atomic Energy Law in early 2024 is expected to further promote the healthy and sustainable development of China's nuclear energy sector, enhancing its role in addressing climate change [2] - Key enterprises in the nuclear supply chain, such as Dongfang Electric Group, have demonstrated strong supply capabilities and forward-looking layouts, achieving systematic upgrades in technology and manufacturing [2] - The "Hualong One" reactor design has 41 units under construction or in operation, leading globally, with continuous optimization in construction indicators reflecting a positive development trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global nuclear power demand is expected to rise significantly, driven by a declaration from 22 countries at the 2023 UN Climate Conference, aiming to triple the current nuclear capacity from 370GW to 1100GW by 2050 [2] Nuclear Power Development Goals - China plans to increase its nuclear capacity to 130GW by 2030, 170GW by 2035, and 340GW by 2050 [2] - The U.S. aims to raise its nuclear capacity from 100GW to 400GW by 2050 [2] - The EU's nuclear capacity is projected to peak at approximately 120GW by 2040, up from the current 98GW [2] - Japan plans to increase nuclear power's share in its energy mix from 6% to 20%-22% by 2030 [2] - India has set a target of 100GW of nuclear capacity by 2047 [2] AI Industry Impact on Nuclear Demand - The development of the AI industry is expected to create additional demand for nuclear power, as AI data centers require stable and reliable electricity supply [3][4] - The U.S. Department of Energy forecasts that the share of electricity demand from AI data centers will rise from 4.3% to 11.7% between 2024 and 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 23% [4] Nuclear Power and AI Data Centers - Nuclear power's load curve aligns well with the operational needs of AI data centers, providing a stable power supply [4] - Nuclear power plants typically have a high operational time (over 99.999%), minimizing the risk of power interruptions for AI data centers [4] - AI data center operators, primarily tech companies, are less sensitive to electricity costs, making nuclear power a viable option despite its higher costs compared to traditional coal power [4] Equipment Market Growth - The revival of nuclear power demand is expected to significantly boost the equipment market, with nuclear equipment accounting for about 50% of nuclear power plant construction costs in China [5] - The estimated investment in nuclear equipment in China could exceed 2 trillion yuan, while overseas nuclear equipment investment may surpass 1 trillion USD by 2050 [5]