相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国棉花行业市场竞争态势及未来前景展望报告》 近一年全国棉花[籽棉]（中准级）集贸市场价格统计图 数据来源：国家统计局 2025年12月，全国棉花[籽棉]（中准级）集贸市场价格当期值为7.18元/公斤，比2025年11月下降0.08元/ 公斤，环比下滑1%，降幅减少0.9个百分点，同比下滑2.3%，降幅减少0.1个百分点。 ...

北京时间1月28日，美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货价格窄幅震荡，开盘报63.77美分/磅，现报63.81美 分/磅，涨幅0.05%，盘中最高触及63.94美分/磅，最低下探63.75美分/磅。 更新时间： 棉花期货行情回顾： 1月27日美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货行情 周二，棉花3128B现货价格指数15535元/吨，较前一日下降25元/吨。 截至1月27日，郑棉注册仓单10205张，较上一交易日增加61张；有效预报1108张，仓单及预报总量 11313张，折合棉花45.25万吨。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 62.83 63.83 62.74 63.75 1.77% 【棉花市场消息速递】 巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西1月前四周出口棉花26.492万吨，日均出口量为1.656万 吨，较上年1月全月的日均出口量1.889万吨减少12%。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 7.64 CNY and a fair value of 8.97 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected between 570 million CNY and 630 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.92% to 53.54%. This growth is primarily attributed to gains from the sale of financial assets and fair value changes of held financial assets, contributing approximately 170 million CNY to net profit [6]. - The fabric business is anticipated to face challenges, while the clothing business is expected to grow rapidly. In the first half of 2025, fabric revenue is projected to decline by 7.85% to 1.851 billion CNY, while shirt revenue is expected to increase by 24.82% to 772 million CNY. The capacity utilization rate for fabric is forecasted at 72%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, while clothing capacity utilization is expected to rise to 95%, up 13 percentage points [6]. - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of improved overseas customer orders as U.S. tariff policies clarify. The company’s fabric business is set to benefit from the rapid release of capacity from its Vietnam project, and the clothing business is expected to perform better due to zero tariffs on exports to Europe from Vietnam [6]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 5,961 million CNY - 2024: 6,091 million CNY - 2025: 6,298 million CNY - 2026: 6,727 million CNY - 2027: 7,322 million CNY - The expected growth rates are -14.1% for 2023, 2.2% for 2024, 3.4% for 2025, 6.8% for 2026, and 8.9% for 2027 [2]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are: - 2023: 0.47 CNY - 2024: 0.50 CNY - 2025: 0.73 CNY - 2026: 0.64 CNY - 2027: 0.77 CNY [2].

Group 1: General Information - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market review**: Zhengzhou cotton prices have declined under pressure. The latest price index for Grade 328 cotton is 15,992 yuan/ton, up 208 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot firm - price quotes have been lowered, and the basis has remained stable. The cotton yarn market has average trading volume, with few new orders. The all - cotton grey fabric market is still dull, with some pre - festival restocking in certain areas but in small quantities [7] - **Operational suggestions**: Overseas, the net long position of CFTC US cotton funds has continued to rise, and the external market has shown signs of recovery. Domestically, the current industrial expectations have been traded, and attention should be paid to the actual decline in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton in the 2026/27 season. The short - term upside of cotton prices is limited, and attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival restocking. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and adjust, waiting for new drivers, while the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending January 6, the number of long positions in the non - commercial futures positions of CFTC US cotton was 81,409 (+247), increasing for the second consecutive week. The number of short positions was 110,329 (-1,790), changing from an increasing to a decreasing trend. The total ICE positions were 311,647 (+10,685), increasing for the sixth consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 9.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.9 percentage points [9] - As of January 11, 2026, in the 2025 cotton season, a total of 1,096 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections. The cumulative national inspection volume was 30,051,724 bales, totaling 6.7838 million tons, an increase of 26,800 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 29,689,201 bales, totaling 6.7026 million tons, an increase of 26,800 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland area was 207,250 bales, totaling 46,000 tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The data includes various aspects such as the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot prices, cotton futures prices, cotton basis changes, spreads between different cotton futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [14][16][17]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: December 18, 2025 [2] Group 2: Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure and adjusting, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The domestic cotton market has support from domestic demand, while the overseas market shows limited adjustments and an expanding price difference between domestic and foreign markets [7][8] Group 3: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Spot market: The latest cotton price index for grade 328 is 15,144 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The negotiated price for machine-picked cotton in North and South Xinjiang for the 2025/26 season is around 14,750 yuan/ton on a net weight basis [7] - Cotton yarn market: Trading is average, with few new orders. Only high-count yarns are selling well. Cotton yarn prices are temporarily stable, but some large manufacturers are offering significant discounts to clear inventory. Xinjiang textile enterprises are barely making a profit, while inland enterprises continue to lose money [7] - Grey cloth market: Trading has improved slightly in some areas but remains dull overall. Orders are being repeated quickly, but shipments have not increased significantly [7] Macro and Overseas Markets - Macro: The prospect of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine seems to be strengthening, causing oil prices to decline continuously and dragging down the performance of the external market [8] - Overseas: The USDA's December global cotton supply and demand report shows a slight decrease in both production and consumption, with a slight accumulation of global ending stocks. US cotton production has increased slightly, and stocks are mainly accumulating. Overall, the adjustment is limited, and US cotton remains in a weak oscillation. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets continues to widen [8] Domestic Market - Supply: As of December 16, 2025, the cumulative national inspection volume is 5.5196 million tons, an increase of 79,100 tons from the previous day. The commercial inventory is still in the seasonal accumulation stage, reaching 4.6836 million tons at the end of November [8] - Demand: The current operating rate has decreased slightly. The profit and cash flow of textile enterprises have deteriorated marginally, but the pressure on finished product inventory is still not significant. In November, the domestic revenue from clothing, footwear, and textiles was 154.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, indicating that domestic demand support still exists [8] Group 4: Industry News - As of December 16, 2025, 1,082 cotton processing enterprises across the country have processed and conducted notarized inspections on cotton in accordance with the reform plan for the cotton quality inspection system. The cumulative national inspection volume is 24,451,412 bales, totaling 5.5196 million tons, an increase of 79,100 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang is 24,181,404 bales, totaling 5.4591 million tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in inland areas is 151,147 bales, totaling 33,500 tons [9] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different contracts, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [14][16][18]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 16, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The trading center of Zhengzhou cotton continues to move upward. The short - term market focuses on the 2026/27 Xinjiang cotton target price area control policy, and Zhengzhou cotton maintains a relatively strong trend with the pressure level gradually moving up [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest cotton price index for grade 328 is 15,060 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The transaction price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang for the 2025/26 season is around 14,750 (gross weight). The base price for low - basis transactions of the same quality is CF01 + 800 - 900, and most base price quotes are still above 900 [7]. - **Domestic Downstream Market**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average with few new orders, only high - count yarns have good sales. The price of pure - cotton yarn remains stable for now, some large factories may offer significant discounts to clear inventory. Xinjiang textile enterprises barely maintain profits, while inland textile enterprises continue to lose money. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market has improved locally but remains dull overall. Orders are turning over quickly, but shipments have not increased much [7]. - **Overseas Market**: The US Department of Agriculture's December global cotton supply - demand report shows a slight decline in both production and consumption, and a slight accumulation of global ending stocks. US cotton production has increased slightly, and inventory accumulation is the main trend. Future attention should be paid to the sales progress of US cotton and changes in CFTC positions [8]. - **Domestic Market Data**: As of December 14, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume nationwide is 5.3736 million tons. The commercial inventory is in the seasonal accumulation stage, reaching 4.6836 million tons at the end of November. The current operating rate has decreased slightly, the marginal deterioration of textile enterprises' profits and cash flow is small, and the finished - product inventory pressure is still not large. In November, the domestic revenue from clothing, footwear, and textiles was 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, indicating that domestic demand support still exists [8]. 3.2 Industry News - In November 2025, China's revenue from clothing, footwear, and textiles was 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative revenue was 1.3597 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, with the growth rate unchanged from the previous month [9]. - As of the week ending November 18, according to CFTC data, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton futures funds were 73,671 (+4,533) contracts, turning from a decrease to an increase; the short positions were 117,858 (- 870) contracts, decreasing for the fifth consecutive week; the total ICE positions were 279,627 (-16,722) contracts, decreasing for the second consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 15.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 percentage points [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including cotton futures prices, cotton basis changes, spreads between different cotton futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt volumes, and exchange rates (USD/CNY and USD/INR), with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][20][28][30].

Core Viewpoint - The China Cotton Price Index (CC Index 3128B) has increased to 14,832 yuan per ton as of November 25, reflecting a rise of 39 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 1 - The current price of cotton in China is reported at 14,832 yuan per ton [1] - The increase in cotton price indicates a positive trend in the market, with a daily rise of 39 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing low performance of cotton futures prices on the ICE, with current trading at 64.07 cents per pound, reflecting a slight increase of 0.47% from the opening price [1] - As of October 10, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 64.46 cents per pound, with a closing price of 63.82 cents, marking a decrease of 1.13% [2] - By the end of September 2025, national cotton commercial inventory is expected to decrease by 31% compared to the previous month, indicating a tightening supply situation [2] Group 2 - As of October 10, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 2,970, a decrease of 88 from the previous trading day [3] - Cumulative public inspection of cotton reached 1,188,073 bales, equivalent to 268,548 tons, which is a year-on-year increase of 192.41% [3] - The cotton inventory held by mainstream textile enterprises in major regions was equivalent to 27.15 days of supply as of the week ending October 9 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the cotton market indicates a slight fluctuation in cotton futures prices, with the current price at 66.68 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.09% increase from the opening price [1] - The USDA's weekly crop progress report shows that the good-to-excellent rate for U.S. cotton remains at 55%, unchanged from the previous week, while the current blooming rate is at 87%, up from 80% the previous week [3] - Pakistan's cotton production has decreased by 30% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to a 47% drop in production from the Sindh province [3] Group 2 - The average import price of cotton at the port (M index) is reported at 73.94 cents per pound, down by 0.86 cents from August 1, with the import cost under a 1% tariff at 12,836 yuan per ton [3] - The domestic average price for 3128 cotton (B index) is 15,168 yuan per ton, which has decreased by 53 yuan per ton since August 1 [3] - The price for Xinjiang cotton delivered to Shandong is 15,260 yuan per ton, down by 50 yuan per ton from August 1 [3]