1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the cotton industry is neutral - with a slight bullish bias [3] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market is influenced by multiple factors including macro - economic conditions, supply, demand, and inventory. Although there are some bearish factors such as the macro - economic recession expectation and import competition, the overall demand and inventory situation still support the cotton price in the medium - term. The release of subsidy policies in late March and early April will significantly impact the market's speculation on future supply - demand patterns [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Factors 3.1.1 International Macro - economy - The Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%. The market shifts from trading rate - cuts to trading economic recession due to the impact from the crude oil market. China and the US have economic and trade consultations in Paris, forming some new consensuses and agreeing to maintain further consultations [3] 3.1.2 Domestic Macro - economy - There is no specific macro - economic information provided other than the expectation of the new cotton subsidy policy [3] 3.2 Supply Factors 3.2.1 International Supply - Brazil's cotton production in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 3.7951 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year decrease. Pakistan's cotton yarn export volume in February 2026 is about 30,900 tons, a 1.5% month - on - month increase and a 57% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume from January to February is 61,300 tons [3] 3.2.2 Domestic Supply - The market is concerned about the new cotton target price subsidy policy. It is speculated that the production target of 36 million mu may be achieved in 2 - 3 years, and the direct subsidy price may be slightly reduced from 18,600 yuan/ton to 18,300 yuan/ton. The estimated domestic cotton production in the 26/27 season is about 7.24 - 7.25 million tons, with an estimated year - on - year decrease of about 8%. The 300,000 - ton sliding - duty quota for processing trade issued by the National Development and Reform Commission may relieve the supply - demand situation in the short - term but is unlikely to change the long - term supply - demand expectation. As of March 21, the national commercial cotton inventory is 5.0399 million tons, showing a seasonal decline [3][25][28] 3.3 Inventory Factors - The domestic commercial cotton inventory shows a seasonal decline, but the decline in Xinjiang slows down, resulting in a relatively stable year - on - year change. The terminal clothing inventory of state - owned enterprises is at a low level, and the inventory of finished products is being transferred from the yarn to the cloth segment, which supports the demand. The current inventory of grey fabrics is not high and may continue to support the market [3] 3.4 Demand Factors 3.4.1 International Demand - In January 2026, the US's total imports of textiles and clothing from China are about $1.078 billion, a 4.7% month - on - month increase and a 55.9% year - on - year decrease. The total imports of cotton textiles and clothing from China are about $288 million, a 13% month - on - month increase and a 56.6% year - on - year decrease. Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume in February 2026 is $1.311 billion, a 24.6% month - on - month decrease and a 7.2% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative export volume from January to February is $3.05 billion [3] 3.4.2 Domestic Demand - The downstream enterprises' operating rates are higher than the same period last year. The spinning profit is further repaired. However, the import of cotton yarn with high cost - performance squeezes the domestic cotton market. The overseas restocking has not started yet. The domestic retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles in January - February 2026 show a year - on - year growth of 4.5%. The textile and clothing export volume in January - February is $50.45 billion, a 17.6% year - on - year increase [3][44][47] 3.5 Price and Market Trends 3.5.1 US Cotton - Due to the international situation and the improvement of the domestic - foreign cotton price difference, as well as the good fundamentals in the short - term, the US cotton is expected to maintain a strong trend. If the macro - economic trading expectation improves, it may reach 70 cents per pound [3] 3.5.2 Zhengzhou Cotton - This week, the center of Zhengzhou cotton has declined, but it shows strong support at key positions. The market is still in a slightly bullish trend. The good start of the downstream industry and the transfer of finished product inventory support the cotton price. However, the upward breakthrough still depends on the supply - side policies. After the continuous rise of the futures price, the risk has increased [3] 3.6 USDA Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The overall situation in the March USDA global supply - demand balance sheet is slightly bearish. Globally, the production is increased by 246,000 tons to 2.634 million tons, the consumption is decreased by 139,000 tons to 1.7216 million tons, and the global inventory - to - consumption ratio is increased by 1.15% to 64.4%. In China, the production in 2025/26 is increased by 109,000 tons to 772,800 tons, the consumption is increased by 109,000 tons to 859,900 tons, and the monthly inventory - to - consumption ratio is decreased by 1.18% to 92.05% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - ICE cotton futures are weak due to lack of fundamental drivers, with increasing US cotton warehouse receipts and poor export data, and concerns about the global economic outlook and the possible end of the US interest - rate cut cycle caused by the Iran situation. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][4][15] - Zhengzhou cotton futures have fallen from high levels but held the technical support at 15,100. The domestic cotton demand is healthy, and the market's attention to agricultural products has increased. However, the lack of new fundamental drivers and concerns about increased cotton and yarn imports due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign cotton limit its upside. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend [1][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract: opening price 65.59, high 65.76, low 63.62, closing price 64.21, down 1.35, down 2.06%, trading volume 173,128 lots, trading volume change - 5,451 lots, open interest 162,737 lots, open interest change - 5,451 lots [4] - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opening price 15,335, high 15,455, low 15,100, closing price 15,295, down 100, down 0.65%, trading volume 2,059,531 lots, trading volume change - 313,802 lots, open interest 765,080 lots, open interest change - 72,900 lots [4] - Cotton yarn main contract: opening price 21,190, high 21,305, low 20,940, closing price 21,205, down 40, down 0.19%, trading volume 60,872 lots, trading volume change 5,084 lots, open interest 14,616 lots, open interest change 122 lots [4] 3.2基本面 3.2.1国际棉花情况 - ICE cotton is weak again due to lack of fundamental drivers, increasing US cotton warehouse receipts, poor export data, and concerns about the global economic outlook and the possible end of the US interest - rate cut cycle caused by the Iran situation [4] - US cotton weekly export sales data: as of the week ending February 26, 2026, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 34,100 tons, a 41% week - on - week decline and a 50% decline from the four - week average. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 12,400 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 64,000 tons, a 46% week - on - week increase and a 43% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.0865 million tons, accounting for 80% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.1026 million tons, accounting for 53% of the annual total signed volume [5] - Other cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: domestic cotton prices have risen. The ex - factory price of S - 6 has increased to 54,750 rupees per candy (about 76.8 cents per pound), and the ex - factory price of Punjab J - 34 has remained stable at 5,420 rupees per maund (about 72.4 cents per pound). The Cotton Corporation of India raised the floor price of S - 6 in the 2025/26 season by 100 rupees per candy to 54,500 rupees per candy (about 76.45 cents per pound) on February 26 and has maintained this level. Cotton sales by the Cotton Corporation of India have been relatively strong this week [6] - Brazil: the market is concerned about the new crop output, and the downward adjustment is limited. Reports of excessive rainfall in Mato Grosso were exaggerated. Although many private forecasting agencies have slightly lower output estimates for MT state than the official agency CONAB's February report, about 70% of the crops were planted within the ideal sowing window, and the final output depends on subsequent climate conditions. The field reports in Bahia state are more optimistic [6] - Bangladesh: there are concerns about the impact of the Middle East situation on energy supply and costs. The demand for sustainably certified cotton is rising, and some spinning mills are purchasing organic cotton. There were protests due to wage arrears before the Eid al - Fitr festival. The government has provided support. The export value of knitted and woven garments in February was $2.82 billion, a 22% month - on - month and 13% year - on - year decline. The cumulative export value in the first 8 months of this fiscal year was $25.8 billion, a 4% decline compared to the same period in the 2024/25 fiscal year [7] - Pakistan: the new crop sowing is going smoothly. There are concerns about the Middle East situation. The demand for imported cotton is moderate, and yarn exports are still good. Warm weather has expanded the cotton - planting area in the earliest sown areas of Sindh and Punjab. If the temperature remains high in the coming weeks, winter wheat will mature earlier, which is also conducive to early cotton sowing in other areas. The water supply is more abundant than last year. If the Middle East conflict continues, international cargo transportation may be delayed. The demand for imported cotton is moderate, and yarn export inquiries are still strong, mainly from the Chinese market [7][8] - Southeast Asian textile industry chain's operating rate: as of the week ending March 6, the operating rate of Indian textile enterprises was 69.5%, that of Vietnamese textile enterprises was 68.5%, and that of Pakistani textile enterprises was 69.5% [8] 3.2.2国内棉花情况 - Cotton prices fluctuate within a narrow range, and trading is still relatively light. In the week ending March 6, cotton futures and spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Spot trading improved slightly compared to last week but the improvement was limited. The sales basis of cotton spot decreased slightly compared to last week, and low - basis quotes increased slightly, with better transactions for low - basis spot [9] - Cotton warehouse receipt situation: as of March 6, there were 11,443 registered warehouse receipts and 1,275 forecast warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton, totaling 12,718, equivalent to 534,156 tons. There were 254 registered warehouse receipts of domestic - produced cotton and 11,189 of Xinjiang cotton (including 1,605 in northern Xinjiang warehouses, 1,293 in southern Xinjiang warehouses, and 8,291 in inland warehouses) [9] - Downstream orders and trading have improved. After the resumption of work of downstream enterprises after the Lantern Festival, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has been good, with an increase in orders for weaving factories and an increase in the purchasing enthusiasm for pure - cotton yarn. Large spinning mills' quotes have remained stable overall, while some small and medium - sized spinning mills have slightly adjusted their quotes. The orders for combed high - count yarn are hot, and the orders of some spinning mills in Xinjiang can be scheduled until the end of April, while those in the inland can be scheduled for about a month. The sales of other varieties are gradually starting, and the trading in the overall market has recovered. The inventory of inland spinning mills has decreased, and the operating rate has continued to rise. The theoretical immediate cash flow of Xinjiang spinning mills is about 900 yuan per ton, and that of inland spinning mills is about - 700 yuan per ton, but the actual cash flow of inland spinning mills is about 50 yuan per ton. In the all - cotton grey fabric market, trading was stable in the first half of the week and increased in the second half, with faster sales. The quotes of all - cotton grey fabric increased and then remained stable. Orders increased in the second half of the week, and some large factories can produce until the end of March. The inventory of weaving factories has decreased, and the operating rate has increased to about 40%. Weaving factories had a small amount of inventory before the Spring Festival, and they currently purchase raw materials as needed, with a raw material inventory of 10 - 15 days [10] 3.3基础数据图表 - The report provides 14 figures, including cotton sales progress, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mills' cotton inventory, weaving mills' yarn inventory, spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory, cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory, yarn enterprises' operating rate, cotton cloth enterprises' operating rate, pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 5 - 9 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [12][13][14] 3.4操作建议 - ICE cotton futures are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to US cotton exports and the new crops in Brazil and the US [15] - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. Attention should be paid to the actual domestic cotton demand and whether there are new upward drivers in the domestic and international cotton markets [15]

Sugar Market - Raw sugar prices continue to fluctuate within a range, with Thailand's sugarcane crushing volume for the 25/26 season at 29.26 million tons, down 16.09% from last year [2][15] - The sugar content in sugarcane is 11.95%, slightly up from 11.87% last year, while the sugar production rate is 9.79%, down from 9.81% [2][15] - Domestic sugar prices are quoted at 5260-5360 CNY/ton in Guangxi and 5110-5160 CNY/ton in Yunnan, with import estimates for quota within 4020-4030 CNY/ton and outside quota at 5090-5100 CNY/ton [2][15] Cotton Market - The USDA's January report has reduced global cotton production expectations, with U.S. and Indian production down, while China's production is expected to increase [5][17] - The global cotton production forecast for 2025/26 is 26.003 million tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons from the previous month [5][18] - As of January 15, China's cotton processing volume is 7.128 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons year-on-year [5][21] Demand and Retail - Retail sales growth in December slowed, particularly in clothing and textiles, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.6% in clothing and related goods [5][23] - The overall yarn production load was 48.98%, down 0.4 percentage points week-on-week, while cotton yarn factory load was 45.9%, down 0.2 percentage points [5][23] Import and Export - The cotton price difference between domestic and international markets remains high, with cotton and yarn imports reaching recent highs, while clothing exports remain weak [5][24] - In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 60,000 tons month-on-month and 40,000 tons year-on-year [5][25] - Clothing and accessory exports in December amounted to $13.412 billion, down 10.19% year-on-year [5][25] Inventory Levels - Commercial cotton inventory in China as of mid-January is 5.8623 million tons, up 77,600 tons month-on-month and 83,300 tons year-on-year [5][26] - The overall inventory of yarn is approximately 32 days, with a slight decrease week-on-week [5][26] International Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment is experiencing disturbances, with limited fundamental drivers, leading to a predominantly fluctuating market [5][10] - The USDA's January report indicates a slight improvement in the supply-demand balance for U.S. cotton, but the overall market remains oversupplied [5][27] Domestic Market Focus - The focus is shifting back to fundamentals as the market anticipates the impact of upcoming policies, with cotton production expected to reach a ten-year high [5][28] - The cotton commercial inventory is at a peak for the 2025/26 season, expected to decline after February [5][28]

Report Overview - Report Date: January 23, 2026 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton futures market has been oscillating and rising. The domestic cotton spot price is supported by a firm basis, while the international cotton price remains weak, leading to a widening gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices. The demand side of the cotton yarn market shows a differentiated trend, with high - count yarn orders better than medium - and low - count yarns. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton has entered a wide - range oscillating adjustment phase, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [7][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and rose. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,839 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis for machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang and northern Xinjiang was relatively high. The price of pure cotton yarn remained stable overall, with high - count yarn prices strong due to low production capacity and high demand, while the transaction focus of air - spun and low - count yarns moved slightly downward. The shipment of all - cotton grey cloth in some local markets was acceptable, and thin plain grey cloth had relatively better sales [7] - **Domestic Market Data**: As of January 21, 2026, the cumulative national cotton inspection was 7.0601 million tons, an increase of 19,900 tons from the previous day, with 6.9698 million tons in Xinjiang, an increase of 18,000 tons. Recently, cotton merchants have increased their purchases of cotton spot, and the basis for cotton spot sales has gradually risen [8] - **Market Situation and Suggestions**: The domestic cotton spot price is difficult to fall due to the firm basis, while the international cotton price is weak, resulting in a continuous high gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices. The import volume of cotton yarn has increased recently. The demand side of the cotton yarn market is differentiated. With limited changes in fundamentals, Zhengzhou cotton has entered a wide - range oscillating adjustment phase in the short term, and the low - buying strategy remains unchanged [8] 3.2 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer said that Trump plans to visit China in April, and there may be a new round of trade negotiations between China and the US before the visit, focusing on basic goods and services and avoiding sensitive issues such as technology and rare earths. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman called on both sides to implement the consensus of the heads of state to inject stability into economic and trade cooperation [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF spreads, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][17][27]

Group 1: General Information - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market review**: Zhengzhou cotton prices have declined under pressure. The latest price index for Grade 328 cotton is 15,992 yuan/ton, up 208 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot firm - price quotes have been lowered, and the basis has remained stable. The cotton yarn market has average trading volume, with few new orders. The all - cotton grey fabric market is still dull, with some pre - festival restocking in certain areas but in small quantities [7] - **Operational suggestions**: Overseas, the net long position of CFTC US cotton funds has continued to rise, and the external market has shown signs of recovery. Domestically, the current industrial expectations have been traded, and attention should be paid to the actual decline in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton in the 2026/27 season. The short - term upside of cotton prices is limited, and attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival restocking. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and adjust, waiting for new drivers, while the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending January 6, the number of long positions in the non - commercial futures positions of CFTC US cotton was 81,409 (+247), increasing for the second consecutive week. The number of short positions was 110,329 (-1,790), changing from an increasing to a decreasing trend. The total ICE positions were 311,647 (+10,685), increasing for the sixth consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 9.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.9 percentage points [9] - As of January 11, 2026, in the 2025 cotton season, a total of 1,096 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections. The cumulative national inspection volume was 30,051,724 bales, totaling 6.7838 million tons, an increase of 26,800 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 29,689,201 bales, totaling 6.7026 million tons, an increase of 26,800 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland area was 207,250 bales, totaling 46,000 tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The data includes various aspects such as the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot prices, cotton futures prices, cotton basis changes, spreads between different cotton futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [14][16][17]