年度报告——棉花 [Table_Summary] ★ 国际市场基本 面分析及展望 1、中美贸易战休战一年，2026 年贸易环境相对平稳；美国面临 中期选举，预期将迎来激进宽松的货币政策及财政政策，且全 球大多主要经济体通胀受控、经济增长诉求提升，普遍进入宽 松周期，预计全球经济将逐步走向温和复苏，全球棉花需求前 景向好。2、26/27 年度美国及全球棉花种植面积预计减少，而 全球消费预期改善，26/27 全球及美国供需预期收紧。 ICE 棉价预估运行区间 60-80 美分/磅，关注中美贸易政策及产 地天气变化情况。 ★ 国内市场基本面分析及展望 1、尽管增产，但截至目前，全国棉花商业库存同比基本持平。 若商业库存同比没有明显的增量，市场将担心年度后期是否会 重蹈上年度供应紧张的覆辙，密切关注年后商业库存去化情况。 2、消费前景向好：中国纺服出口需求前景向好；内需在政策扶 持下料维持温和增长态势；国内棉纱社会库存不高也给了隐性 需求增长的空间；新疆棉纺产能快速扩张将支撑刚需用棉量。 3、25/26 年度国内供需预期紧平衡；26/27 年度疆棉种植面积调 减可能导致国内棉花产量下降，产需缺口或将有所扩大，届时 可 ...

作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【供应】：新棉加工接近尾声，截止12月25日24时，累计公检量达560.89万吨， | | | | 但日均公检降至 5.5 万吨。商业库存回升，但上年度低库存+ 新年度低进口，整 | | | | 体供应增幅有限。 | | | | 【需求】：本周轧花厂加工利润1013~1078元/吨，纺纱厂即期利润-1351.5~-507 | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | 【库存】：库存位于往年同期偏高。 | | | | 【成本】：成本较高在14700~15000及以上，成本较低在14600以下，较高成本等 | | | | 待套保，较低成本顺价出货 | 震荡偏强。重点 | | 棉花 | 【基差】：基差略有走强，现货维稳。 | 关注政策和需求 | | | 【总结】：国际市场，周初因出口数据改善有限短暂回调，但随后在最新美棉签 | 端新市场信息。 | | | 约与装运数据明显好转，以及外围金融和 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 风险 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 作者： 李馨 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14255元/吨，较前一日变动+75元/吨，幅度+0.53%。现货方面， 3128B棉新疆到厂价15086元/吨，较前一日变动+5元/吨，现货基差CF05+831，较前一日变动-70； 3128B棉全国均价15279元/吨，较前一日变动+8元/吨，现货基差CF05+1024，较前一日变动-67。 近期市场资讯，鉴于年底财务因素影响，巴基斯坦棉市交易放缓。部分低等级资源成交价较现行价格低 500-1500卢比/莫恩德。纱厂持续反映经营压力重，因需求疲软，当地棉价持稳约两个月。24日卡拉奇 棉花协会（KCA）2025/26年度现货价格稳定在15500卢比/莫恩德。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续上涨。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产 需双减，期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当 前北半球新棉集中上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: The 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease, and the ending stocks increase slightly. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, while in the long - term, it has limited downward space. In China, the supply is abundant in the short - term, but the downstream demand is weak. However, the improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. - Sugar: The 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. Although the short - term factors support the rebound of raw sugar prices, the upside space is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has sufficient short - term supply, but its low valuation restricts the further decline [5]. - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. European port pulp inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal demand is still insufficient. However, the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize gradually [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,960 yuan/ton yesterday, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.25%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,978 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the national average price was 15,139 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's cotton imports were 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons (34.4%) and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (9.4%). From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0% [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply - demand data this month is small. The US cotton production increases slightly, and there is greater inventory pressure. The short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the long - term upward driver is not clear. - Domestic: China's cotton production in the 25/26 season continues to increase. The short - term supply is abundant, but the downstream demand is weak. The improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. Strategy Be neutral to bullish, focus on the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,102 yuan/ton yesterday, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.72%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's sugar imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 season, the imports were 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's sugarcane harvest is accelerating, India's exports are difficult to increase in the short - term, and Thailand's sugarcane crushing is delayed. Although the short - term raw sugar price rebounds, the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern restricts its upside space. - Zhengzhou sugar: Guangxi sugar mills are starting production, with short - term sufficient supply. However, the low valuation restricts its downward space [5]. Strategy Be neutral to bearish. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,500 yuan/ton yesterday, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,095 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total inventory of pulp in 1 region and 8 ports decreased by 1.39% week - on - week, and the decline narrowed by 3.50 percentage points [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, such as Domtar closing the Crofton paper mill and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill having a temporary shutdown. - Demand: The European port pulp inventory in October decreased, showing some improvement in demand. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, but the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize [7]. Strategy Be neutral. Although the pulp price has risen strongly recently, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation restricts its upside space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 18 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉承压调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15144 元/吨，较上一 交易日涨 14 元/吨。当前 ...

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 16 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉交投重心继续上移。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15060 元/ 吨，较上一交易日跌 2 元/吨。当前 2025/26 年度 31~41 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In the 2024 - 25 season, global cotton demand grew steadily driven by China and the US, but the significant increase in production led to weak prices. In the domestic market, due to a sharp reduction in imports, the spot market was tight, prices were relatively firm, and the basis was high with a large gap between domestic and international prices. In the 2025 - 26 season, global production will continue to grow, while the demand side has uncertainties as China's economy is expected to recover but the US economy is uncertain. Considering the tight domestic spot market, cotton prices are expected to remain in a volatile and slightly upward - trending pattern next year [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factor Analysis - **Gradual recovery of social retail data**: From January to October 2025, China's social consumer goods retail market showed stable growth, structural optimization, and urban - rural coordination. The total retail sales from January to October reached 4.12169 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. With policy and technological support, the annual total is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan [4][7]. - **Relatively large pressure on price levels**: In 2025, China's prices showed a "low - then - high, moderately recovering" trend. The CPI turned positive in October (up 0.2% year - on - year) and then declined slightly in November (down 0.5% year - on - year). The PPI turned positive in October (up 0.1% month - on - month) and then decreased in November (down 0.3% month - on - month), but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. In 2026, prices are expected to rise moderately [8][11]. - **Expected steady recovery of the macro - economy**: With policy changes, the macro - economy is expected to show a steady recovery. On the supply side, measures include increasing high - quality service supply and reducing over - capacity. On the demand side, external demand from the US and Europe is expected to be stable, and domestic demand potential lies in service consumption [12][13]. - **Strong resilience of the US economy**: In November, the US PMI was supported by the service sector, with manufacturing declining, consumer spending slowing, and corporate investment to be further restored. The third - quarter GDP growth rate was 3.9% quarter - on - quarter annualized. The employment market showed some signs of recovery, but there were still risks of layoffs. The market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut fluctuated greatly [14][21]. 3.2 Cotton Supply Analysis - **Slightly loose global supply - demand balance**: According to the USDA's November report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, an increase of 2.0% from September; consumption is expected to be 25.883 million tons, an increase of 0.04%; and the ending inventory is expected to be 16.532 million tons, an increase of 3.8%. The ending inventory has reached a recent high [23]. - **Tight domestic supply - demand situation**: In the 2025/26 season, the domestic beginning inventory is 6.16 million tons, and the production is 7.42 million tons. The total demand is expected to be 8.45 million tons, with the ending inventory decreasing to 6.33 million tons. The domestic market is relatively tight due to reduced imports and stable consumption [25]. - **Tight commercial and industrial inventories**: As of November 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 24.2% from the end of October but 5.31% lower than the same period last year. The industrial inventory was 931,400 tons, an increase of 59,400 tons year - on - year. The overall inventory is still limited [26]. 3.3 Cotton Spinning Consumption Analysis - **Strong US consumption**: From January to August 2025, the US textile and clothing imports increased by 4.43% in volume and 1.47% in value year - on - year. The cotton product imports increased by 3.83% in volume and 4.66% in value. In September, the retail sales of clothing and accessories increased by 6.65% year - on - year [31]. - **Export performance with high - then - low trend**: In October 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59%. From January to October, the exports were 243.936 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.58%. The export situation was better in the first half of the year [34]. - **Steady growth of domestic demand**: In October 2025, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 1205.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [38]. 3.4 Main Concerns - **Changes in Xinjiang cotton planting policy**: The continuous increase in Xinjiang's cotton planting area and production has put pressure on the supply - demand balance and increased subsidy costs. The direct subsidy policy is likely to be adjusted, and there may be other policies to adjust the planting area [43]. - **Changes in the RMB exchange rate**: With the depreciation of the US dollar and the strength of China's manufacturing, the RMB is appreciating, which may bring pressure on textile and clothing exports [44]. - **Sustainability of US consumption**: Although the US textile and clothing consumption has been strong, there are concerns about the US economy due to weak employment data and PMI. However, the Fed's interest - rate cuts may support the economy [45]. 3.5 Market Outlook In 2026, the global cotton market is expected to see both supply and demand increase. The domestic spot market will remain tight. With the Fed's interest - rate cuts and China's economic recovery, cotton prices are expected to be volatile and slightly upward - trending, but attention should be paid to policy, exchange - rate, and consumption changes [46].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - For cotton, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with limited up and down space. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases. It's advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [1][2] - For sugar, short - term prices have limited downward space and may have a weak rebound, but the medium - to - long - term domestic supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price trend may not be optimistic next year [3][5] - For pulp, the current fundamental improvement is insufficient, and pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,625 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,882 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. As of October 9, 2025, the US had cumulatively net - signed 1.065 million tons of 2025/26 cotton exports, accounting for 40.11% of the annual expected exports, and cumulatively shipped 318,000 tons with a shipment rate of 29.89%. China had cumulatively signed 28,000 tons of US cotton imports, accounting for 2.65% of the signed US cotton, and cumulatively shipped 5,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA report significantly increased the global cotton production in 2025/26, and the global cotton ending inventory increased significantly compared to September and shifted from destocking to restocking. The sales pressure of US cotton increased significantly. The short - term external market is expected to be under pressure. - Domestic: After the National Day, the expected new cotton output decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, pushing up the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. However, there is strong hedging pressure after the price increase, and the expected output in Xinjiang has increased again. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downside space of the futures price is limited [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,379 yuan/ton yesterday, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,470 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. It is expected that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November will be 18.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.9%, and the sugar output will be 1.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.9% [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The supply in Brazil in the second half of October was strong, strengthening the surplus expectation. India's sugar production is expected to rebound significantly in the 25/26 season, and the global bumper harvest pattern suppresses the price. However, the short - term export volume in India is difficult to increase, and the supply pressure in Brazil will gradually weaken, so the downward space of raw sugar is limited. - Zhengzhou sugar: The latest announced sugar and syrup imports were higher than expected, and the sugar mills in Guangxi have successively started crushing, so the short - term supply pressure is high, and the price has reached a new low [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,208 yuan/ton yesterday, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,465 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,955 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import wood pulp spot market had some price fluctuations, with some prices of imported softwood pulp falling and some prices of imported hardwood pulp rising [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: In September, the European pulp port inventory decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply remained loose. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price. Although there was a large - scale new production capacity of finished paper this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The November USDA report increased the production estimates of the US and China, which was overall bearish. With the increase in new cotton processing volume, the market's estimate of the new - season cotton production was also raised. Downstream demand was average, and there were signs of inventory accumulation in finished products, but the overall pressure was not significant. As seed cotton procurement was nearing completion, the supply pressure was becoming more evident with the concentrated listing of new cotton. It was expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures would be weak in the short term. Key factors to watch were macro - economic conditions, demand, and policies [3]. - The November USDA report did not adjust the harvested price of US cotton but raised the yield per unit, ultimately increasing the US cotton production estimate by 200,000 tons compared to September. It also increased China's cotton production estimate by 220,000 tons and Brazil's by 110,000 tons. Globally, the cotton production estimate was raised by 520,000 tons, and the ending inventory estimate was increased by 600,000 tons compared to September, showing a bearish outlook [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Production and Supply - As of November 13, the national new cotton picking progress was 98.3%, the delivery rate was 95.5%, the processing rate was 56%, and the sales rate was 22.8%. As of November 16, the national new cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was 3.0893 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.24% [6]. - According to the USDA's weekly export report, as of the week ending September 25, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 35,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81%, a 4% decrease from the four - week average, and a year - on - year increase of 77% [24]. - As of 24:00 on November 17, the cotton inspection volume in the 25/26 season was about 3.1708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 19.73% [42]. Cotton Market Price and Index - From November 10 to November 17, the price of the ZCE active cotton contract dropped from 13,580 yuan/ton to 13,445 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton, and the ICE active cotton contract dropped from 64.34 cents/pound to 64.21 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.13 cents/pound [10]. - From November 10 to November 17, the CotlookA price index dropped from 75.2 cents/pound to 74.4 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.80 cents/pound, and the Indian S - 6 spot price dropped from 52,300 rupees/candy to 51,900 rupees/candy, a decrease of 400 rupees/candy [12]. - From November 10 to November 17, the port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarns such as Indian C32S, Vietnamese C32S, and Indonesian C32S all decreased [14]. - From November 10 to November 17, the arrival prices of imported cotton such as US EMOT M and Brazilian M under 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty all decreased [15]. Textile and Apparel Market - In October 2025, China's textile and apparel export volume was 2.2619 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. Among them, textile exports decreased by 9.10% year - on - year and 5.92% month - on - month, and apparel exports decreased by 15.97% year - on - year and 11.64% month - on - month [4]. - Benefiting from the pre - promotion of "Double Eleven", clothing consumption showed a stable recovery trend. In October, the retail sales of textiles and apparel reached 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and the growth rate increased by 1.6 percentage points month - on - month, significantly outperforming the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods [5]. Inventory and Related Indicators - As of this Wednesday, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 5,314, and the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 28 [69]. - On Tuesday of this week, the spot price index of 328 cotton increased week - on - week, the closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract increased week - on - week, and the basis between them widened week - on - week. The price index of C32S yarn increased week - on - week, the closing price of the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract increased week - on - week, and the basis between them widened week - on - week [54][55]. - On Tuesday of this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port pick - up price index under sliding - scale duty and 1% tariff increased week - on - week. The price difference between the C32S yarn price index and the port pick - up price increased week - on - week [58]. - On Tuesday of this week, on the futures market, the price difference between the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract and the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract widened week - on - week, and the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn showed a wider loss week - on - week [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton lacks upward momentum and is affected by the weakening risk appetite in the US financial market and concerns about US cotton exports. Attention should be paid to the USDA's monthly supply - demand report on November 14. Domestic cotton futures show narrow - range fluctuations. With the end of seed cotton procurement, the market focus returns to supply and demand. Currently, there is no new upward driver for cotton futures and spot prices. In the short term, the large - scale listing of new cotton and strong hedging intentions of ginning factories limit the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures, while high basis and relatively low absolute prices support it, which may be more obvious closer to the delivery month. So, it is judged that Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a volatile trend [1][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Contract: Open price was 65.85 cents/lb, high was 66.04 cents/lb, low was 63.52 cents/lb, close was 63.55 cents/lb, down 2.01 cents/lb or 3.07%. Volume was 171,365 lots, an increase of 18,228 lots. Open interest was 130,046 lots, a decrease of 12,147 lots [4] - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract: Open price was 13,590 yuan/ton, high was 13,640 yuan/ton, low was 13,455 yuan/ton, close was 13,580 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.11%. Volume was 966,651 lots, an increase of 87,190 lots. Open interest was 576,279 lots, a decrease of 1,862 lots [4] - Cotton Yarn Main Contract: Open price was 19,855 yuan/ton, high was 19,950 yuan/ton, low was 19,710 yuan/ton, close was 19,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.13%. Volume was 57,764 lots, a decrease of 7,615 lots. Open interest was 25,042 lots, an increase of 1,616 lots [4] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: It gave back the gains of the past two weeks and fell back to around 63.5 cents/lb, affected by the weakening risk appetite in the US financial market and persistent concerns about US cotton exports [5] - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA's weekly export sales data stopped being issued [6] - Other Major Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: Seed cotton listing volume is still less than the same period last year. Cotton fields in many states are affected by rainfall, and the moisture content of recently arrived cotton is high, not meeting the purchase standards of the Cotton Corporation of India. The estimated daily arrival of seed cotton is 69,000 - 93,000 bales, lower than the previous year [7] - Brazil: The area of new - season main - producing areas may decline. The IMEA maintains the cotton production forecast for the state of Mato Grosso in the 2025/26 season at 2.62 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous season, but the planting area is expected to be 1.46 million hectares (a 5.7% decrease). Due to rising production costs and low lint prices, farmers' planting willingness is insufficient. The soybean sowing progress is behind that of 2024, and uneven rainfall may affect crop growth and the planting window of second - season cotton [7] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand is very limited. The estimated cotton production this year is about 6.5 - 7 million bales. Most factories focus on domestic cotton procurement, and many spinning enterprises choose to wait and see. Domestic yarn demand has not improved, and factories face liquidity problems. Yarn export business is also sluggish [8] - Bangladesh: In October, clothing exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Cotton import trade was moderate this week, and spinning enterprises actively replenished stocks. However, the yarn and textile industries still face problems such as unstable energy supply, weak demand, and narrow profit margins. The upcoming general election may cause turmoil and affect business operations and export orders. The impact of the cargo fire at Dhaka Airport in October is still ongoing [9] - Turkey: Cotton import demand is average. Yarn enterprises are under continuous operating pressure, with some operating rates dropping to 50%. Yarn orders grow slowly, and currently, spinning enterprises generally purchase cotton only according to recent demand. In September, raw cotton imports were more than 53,000 tons, a 32% decrease from August but a 23% increase from the same period last year. Exports from August - September were 21,000 tons, a 26% year - on - year increase [11] - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Operating Rates: As of the week of November 7, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67%, 61%, and 65% respectively [11] 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Spot Price: It is basically stable, and low - basis transactions are good. There is still pressure on the spot market, and some cotton merchants have lowered the spot basis. The mainstream basis range is stable, but low - basis offers have increased [12] - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of November 7, there were 3,013 registered warehouse receipts and 1,559 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 4,572 receipts, equivalent to 192,024 tons [13] - Downstream Situation: The pure - cotton yarn market is not in a typical off - season. This week, the demand for varieties is clearly differentiated, with the demand for air - jet spun low - count yarn weakening and that for high - tight 40 - count and high - count yarns being okay. Overall, Xinjiang orders are better than those in the inland. Cotton yarn prices fluctuate, and the overall price center changes little. The overall operating rate has increased slightly, and the inventory remains stable. The theoretical cash flow of spinning enterprises has improved. The sales atmosphere in the cotton greige fabric market has improved in some areas, shipments have increased, and factory inventories have decreased. Export orders have increased in inquiries, but it is still waiting for order confirmation. The market confidence is still insufficient [14] 3.3. Basic Data Charts - Charts include Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving enterprises' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory (weekly), cotton yarn enterprises' operating rate (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' operating rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 1 - 5 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [16][17][18] 3.4. Operation Suggestions - Maintain the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will be in a volatile trend [19]