郑棉：集中上市压力渐显 弘业期货农产品研究团队 2025/11/19 王晓蓓 从业资格号:F0272777 投资咨询证号：Z0010085 郑棉：集中上市压力渐显 郑棉：集中上市压力渐显 受益于"双十一"促销前置，服装消费呈现企稳复苏态势。10月分，纺织品服装零售额达1471亿元， 同比增长6.3%，增速环比提升1.6个百分点，显著跑赢社会消费品零售总额增速。 新棉上市近半 核心观点 11月美农报告调增美国和中国产量预估，整体偏空；随着新棉加工量的增加，市场对新棉度棉花产量预 估有所上调；下游需求一般，产成品有累库迹象不过整体压力不大。籽棉收购进入尾声，新棉集中上市下供 给压力渐显，预计短期内郑棉或偏弱运行。 关注：宏观、需求、政策 11月美农偏空 11月美农未对美棉收获棉价进行调整，上调单产，最终使产量预估较9月份上调20万吨；上调中国棉花 产量预估22万吨；上调巴西棉花产量预估11万吨。最终，全球棉花产量预估较9月份上调52万吨，期末库存 预估较9月份上调60万吨，整体偏空。 纺服终端市场内外分化，国内消费表现良好 根据海关总署数据显示，2025年10月，我国纺织品服装出口额为22.619亿美元，同比下降 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 9 日 棉花：近期预计维持窄幅区间震荡 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 截至 11 月 7 日当周，ICE 棉花回吐过去两周的涨幅，再次回到 63.5 美分/磅附近，ICE 棉花本周走 势受美国金融市场风险偏好减弱影响，因美国国内局势复杂，另外市场对美国棉花出口的担忧情绪仍未消 退，令 ICE 棉花再次回落。 国内棉花期货窄幅波动，籽棉收购接近尾声，本年度新棉的平均成本基本确认，籽棉价格或者说新棉 成本和棉花期货之间的联动基本结束，市场焦点将再次回归到棉花的供需情况，在新作丰产、下游需求表 现一般、棉花一口价中性的情况下，棉花期、现货价格暂时没有新的上涨驱动。短期来看，新棉大量上市 和轧花厂套保意愿较强继续限制郑棉期货的反弹动能，不过，高基差和绝对价格相对不高将对郑棉期货构 成支撑，这一情况越临近交割月可能越明显。所以，当前维持郑棉期货震荡走势的判断。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 （正文） 1. 行情数据 表 1:棉花、棉纱期货数据 | | 开 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the upside potential of cotton prices is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Domestic cotton prices continued a slight rebound supported by rising acquisition costs and positive expectations from Sino - US negotiations, but the rebound momentum slowed as positive factors were digested. ICE cotton futures prices rebounded due to Fed rate - cut expectations and Sino - US negotiation prospects, despite the lack of significant improvement in the industrial fundamentals [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - **US Cotton Weekly Review**: US cotton rebounded due to Fed rate - cut expectations and Sino - US negotiation prospects. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions were 69,367 contracts, a decrease of 751 from the previous week; non - commercial short net positions were 114,787 contracts, an increase of 2,020; non - commercial net positions were - 45,420 contracts, a decrease of 2,771 [9]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated narrowly, ranging from 13,520 to 13,675 yuan/ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,595 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan or 0.41%. As of October 31, the registered and forecasted cotton warrants totaled 3,858 contracts, equivalent to 162,000 tons [10]. - **Cotton Textile Spot Weekly Data**: Spot prices were basically stable, but trading was sluggish. The seed cotton acquisition price showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the price in the current week at 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg, supporting cotton prices. The overall spot basis narrowed, and many cotton merchants lowered their spot sales basis [12][14]. 02 Domestic Cotton Market - **Supply**: The China Cotton Association predicts that the 2025/26 cotton output will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, with Xinjiang's output expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a 9.2% increase and accounting for 95.8% of the national total. New cotton listing is slower than in previous years. In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, with Australia and Brazil being the main sources [17][25]. - **Demand**: Demand is weaker than in previous years, with no obvious domestic demand improvement and a slight improvement in exports. Weaving mills' raw material procurement is mainly on a wait - and - see basis, with orders - based purchasing [27][33]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing profit of ginning mills was 396 - 445 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1,022.1 to - 945.3 yuan/ton, a decline from the previous week [36]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of October 31, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.3261 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 484,500 tons and 77,200 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,800 tons [42]. 03 International Market - **Global Cotton Supply and Demand**: According to the latest USDA September forecast, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [44]. - **US Cotton Export**: Due to the US government shutdown, most USDA reports have suspended disclosure [47]. - **US Cotton Growth**: No specific content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The new - year global cotton supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there are many uncertainties and large adjustment space in the global supply - demand balance sheet, with the supply - demand report being neutral. Short - term global cotton prices are constrained by harvest pressure. [28] - In China, the new - year production increase expectation is strong, commercial inventory is rising rapidly, and industrial inventory is at a neutral level. The period of the tightest cotton supply has passed. The current cotton - yarn price spread is low, domestic and export demand is weak, and downstream textile mills purchase as needed. [28] - If there is no substantial progress in Sino - US tariff negotiations, cotton prices are expected to face upward pressure due to expected production increase, weak demand, and downstream losses. [28] 3. Summary by Directory Global Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is 25.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. Global consumption is expected to increase by 180,000 tons to 25.9 million tons, and the global ending inventory is 15.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons. The supply - demand report is neutral. [2] US Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated cotton production is 2.88 million tons, unchanged from the August estimate. The estimated ending inventory is 780,000 tons, unchanged from August and 90,000 tons more than the previous year's ending inventory. [6] Domestic Cotton Industry Chain Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production Increase**: In 2025, the national cotton planting area is 47.306 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. Total cotton output is adjusted up by 516,000 tons to 7.415 million tons. The purchase price of seed cotton showed a pattern of high - opening, low - going, and then rebounding. In October, there was a rare scramble for purchases in Xinjiang. [7][11] - **Cotton Inventory Situation**: As of the end of September, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 670,000 tons. It is expected to reach over 2.5 million tons by October, ending the stage of supply shortage. As of the end of September, the industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 850,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70,000 tons, at a neutral level. [12][16] - **Textile Mill Yarn Inventory**: As of the end of October, the textile mill yarn inventory was 30.1 days, a year - on - year increase of 5 days, at a neutral - to - high level. [17] - **Textile and Apparel Export Situation**: In September 2025, China's textile and apparel export total was $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative textile and apparel exports were $221.69 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. [19][21] Domestic Cotton Valuation Situation - At the end of October, the average purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be around 6.2 yuan/kg, corresponding to a new - cotton cost of around 14,600 yuan/ton. The current domestic cotton - yarn price spread is around 5,700, at a low level. Xinjiang's textile profit is at the break - even point, while inland textile profit is in the red. Overall, downstream industry chain profits are low, which is not conducive to downstream active inventory replenishment. [22][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The cotton market is in a stalemate this week. Domestically, new cotton acquisition progresses slowly, and the global cotton supply pressure is significant while overseas demand shows no improvement. In the short term, cotton has support below and pressure above. It is recommended to go long with a light position in the short - term and mainly wait and see [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 01 Market Review US Cotton Weekly Market Review - US cotton fluctuated weakly this week. With the market pre - digesting the Fed's decision to restart interest rate cuts, the weakening dollar boosted a weak rebound in cotton futures. As of the week ending September 26, hedge funds and large speculators held a net short position of 45,420 contracts in cotton, an increase of 2,771 contracts from the previous week. Long positions were 69,367 contracts, a decrease of 751 contracts from the previous week, and short positions were 114,787 contracts, an increase of 2,020 contracts from the previous week [9]. Zhengzhou Cotton Weekly Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly this week, quoted at 13,210 - 13,380 yuan/ton, with the Friday closing price at 13,335 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 10 yuan or 0.08%. As of October 17, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 2,653, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 183, totaling 2,836, equivalent to 119,112 tons [10]. - Since the start of the acquisition this year, the purchase price of seed cotton has shown a trend of first falling and then rising. As of now, the overall average price is lower than the same period last year. Spot trading has temporarily become dull, and textile mills maintain just - in - time procurement [13]. - The spot basis is generally stable and slightly weak, with some batches still offering slight discounts [16]. 02 Domestic Cotton Market Supply - The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, reaching a new high since 2013. The Xinjiang cotton region is particularly prominent, with an expected total output of about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the country's total output [19]. - The listing progress of new cotton is slower than in previous years [21]. Import - In August, China imported 73,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6% and a month - on - month increase of 36.9%. Among the main source countries, Australian new cotton has become the preferred supplementary source in the market, with the import proportion increasing to 77%, and Brazil accounting for 15%. In the 2024/25 season, China's cotton imports decreased, with a total annual import of 1.053 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.5% [27]. Demand - Demand is lower than in previous years. Domestic demand has no obvious positive factors, and exports have slightly improved [29]. - The operating rate has declined compared to before the holiday. Due to the pressure of subsequent order connection, fabric mills mainly wait and see in raw material procurement and purchase according to orders [35]. Profit - This week, the processing profit of ginning mills is 431 - 525 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills is - 695.6 - - 570.1 yuan/ton, showing a decline compared to last week [38]. Inventory - As of the week ending October 17, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 278,000 tons, and 202,800 tons lower than the same period last year. At the end of September, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,800 tons. During the handover period of the new and old seasons in September, there was a shortage of suitable raw materials, and the demand side did not improve significantly. Textile mills replenished inventory on a just - in - time basis, so the raw material inventory decreased slightly and steadily [44]. 03 International Market Global Cotton Supply and Demand - According to the latest USDA global cotton production and sales forecast in September, the global total cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. China's total output increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [46]. US Cotton Export - Due to the US government shutdown, most USDA reports have suspended disclosure [49]. US Cotton Growth Status - Not provided in detail in the given content.

Group 1: Report Overview - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Report title: New cotton listing stage, under pressure [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Fundamental aspects: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17, meeting market expectations, and China-US leaders' phone call promoted trade negotiations. In the domestic market, the CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year with a slight month-on-month decline, and the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods continued to slow down to 3.4%. The USDA September report was bearish, with no adjustment in the US and a slight increase in the inventory-to-sales ratio outside China. On the supply side, the expectation of a bumper harvest is clear, and the listing period is earlier than usual. The opening price of machine-picked seed cotton was in line with market expectations and then declined slightly. The commercial cotton inventory is rapidly decreasing, and the end-of-September inventory is expected to be 80-90 million tons, the lowest in recent years. In August 2025, cotton imports increased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative imports in the 2024/25 season were 105 million tons, a 68% year-on-year decrease. On the demand side, the profit situation of textile enterprises has improved, but there is still a shortage of downstream orders. The operating rate of textile enterprises first increased and then decreased, and the finished product inventory continued to decline. Domestic consumption in August was okay, but the cumulative year-on-year increase continued to narrow. Overseas market consumption has recovered, but China's export situation remains weak [7][55]. - Viewpoint: October is the peak period for Xinjiang cotton listing and processing. Attention should be paid to the processing and circulation of new cotton and the inventory accumulation speed. Under the pressure of a bumper harvest this year and hedging during the listing period, the trend will still be weak. Due to more pre-hedging this year, the pressure has been advanced, and the overall decline in October may narrow. Pay attention to the support performance of the integer关口 of the main contract. In the far month, pay attention to the demand performance and macro policy changes [7][55]. - Strategy: Short on rallies, sell call options, and converge the internal and external price difference [7][55]. - Important variables: Reserve policy; tariff changes; listing progress [7][55]. Group 3: Market Review - ICE cotton: In September, the main contract of ICE cotton continued to fluctuate in a wide range, with the trading center moving down, and the monthly decline was 1.6%. The USDA September supply and demand balance sheet made no adjustments in the US, and the inventory-to-sales ratio outside China increased slightly. The report was slightly bearish. The Fed's interest rate cut of 25 basis points met market expectations, and the macro boost was relatively limited. The net long position of CFTC funds remained low, and the capital driving willingness was low [9]. - Zhengzhou cotton: In September, Zhengzhou cotton changed from rising to falling, with a monthly decline of 7.2%. In September, the new cotton listing period began. The accumulated temperature in the main producing areas was good during the growth stage. The market generally expected the new cotton supply this year to be 7.3-7.5 million tons, with a clear expectation of a bumper harvest and an earlier listing period. Coupled with more pre-hedging pressure than in previous years, Zhengzhou cotton was mainly under pressure in September [11]. Group 4: Global Cotton Supply and Demand - USDA September report adjustments: The report was overall bearish. In the US, the output was increased by 0.2 million tons to 2.878 million tons, and the ending inventory remained unchanged. In India, the beginning inventory was increased by 2.6 million tons to 2.171 million tons, the output was increased by 10.9 million tons to 5.225 million tons, the imports were decreased by 2.2 million tons to 0.61 million tons, the exports were increased by 6.5 million tons to 0.283 million tons, and the ending inventory was increased by 4.8 million tons to 2.28 million tons. In China, the beginning inventory was decreased by 20.7 million tons to 7.585 million tons, the output was increased by 21.8 million tons to 7.076 million tons, the imports were decreased by 2.2 million tons to 1.132 million tons, the consumption was increased by 21.8 million tons to 8.382 million tons, and the ending inventory was decreased by 22.9 million tons to 7.396 million tons. In Brazil, there was no adjustment. Overall, the global cotton output was increased by 23.1 million tons to 25.621 million tons, the trade volume was increased by 5.2 million tons to 19.031 million tons, the consumption was increased by 18.3 million tons to 25.872 million tons, the ending inventory was decreased by 16.8 million tons to 15.924 million tons, a 1.04% month-on-month decrease [14]. Group 5: Domestic Supply and Demand - New-year output forecast: In August 2025, the survey by the China Cotton Association showed that the national cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a 1.8% year-on-year increase. Due to better weather and proper water and fertilizer management by cotton farmers, the cotton growth was good. The total output in Xinjiang reached a new high, and the national expected total output was 7.216 million tons, an 8.3% year-on-year increase and a 321,000-ton increase from the previous period, the highest since 2013 [19]. - Cotton purchase and processing: In late September, seed cotton was gradually picked and listed across the country. In Xinjiang, multiple rainfall and cooling affected the spraying effect of defoliants, and the large-scale machine-picking time was postponed. From September 22 to 28, the domestic spot and futures prices of lint cotton fluctuated and declined, and the purchase price of seed cotton also decreased. The price of hand-picked cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 7.3-7.6 yuan/kg at the beginning to 7.1-7.3 yuan/kg, and the price of machine-picked cotton decreased from 6.2-6.4 yuan/kg to 6.0-6.3 yuan/kg. Affected by the high moisture content of newly picked seed cotton, processing enterprises were generally cautious to ensure purchase quality and adjusted the purchase rhythm according to market changes. The purchase price of seed cotton in the inland was relatively stable, mostly between 7-7.5 yuan/kg. Recently, the picking speed has slowed down due to continuous rainfall and inability to dry [21]. - Inventory situation: In mid-September, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons from the end of last month; the industrial cotton inventory was 862,100 tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons from the end of last month. The commercial cotton inventory continued to decline rapidly in September, and the end-of-September inventory is expected to be 800,000-900,000 tons, the lowest in recent years. The industrial cotton inventory level decreased slightly, and downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory for rigid demand, currently at a neutral level in previous years. In September, the yarn inventory index was 26.43 days, a decrease of 2.28 days from last month; the grey fabric inventory index was 29.83 days, a decrease of 3.03 days from last month [25]. - Cotton import volume: In August 2025, the import volume was 70,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 80,000 tons and a month-on-month increase of 17,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 590,000 tons, a 72.6% year-on-year decrease. From September 2024 to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.05 million tons, a 68% year-on-year decrease [30]. - Textile enterprise processing: As of September 26, according to the statistics of the Cotton Textile Information Network, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 28.1 days, a decrease of 0.4 days from last week; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.8 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last week; the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 8.2 days, an increase of 0.3 days from last week; the cotton grey fabric inventory was 30.7 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from last week. As of September 26, the yarn load index in China was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2% from last week; the grey fabric load index in China was 52.5%, a decrease of 0.3% from last week. In September, due to the decline in cotton prices, the profit situation of textile enterprises improved, but the shortage of downstream orders still existed. Weaving factories postponed yarn procurement due to the expected decline in cotton prices, disrupting the peak season rhythm. The operating rate of textile enterprises first increased and then decreased in September, and the finished product inventory was in a downward trend [32][33]. - Textile demand: In August 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles were 104.5 billion yuan, a 3.1% year-on-year increase. From January to August 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles were 940 billion yuan, a 2.9% year-on-year increase. Among them, the clothing retail sales from January to August were 670.8 billion yuan, a 2.2% year-on-year increase. In August 2025, the textile and clothing export volume was 26.5 billion US dollars, a 5.1% year-on-year decrease. From January to August 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing export volume was 197.3 billion US dollars, a 0.3% year-on-year decrease. From the perspective of textile and clothing import data in the US, EU, and Japan, in June 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing imports in the EU were 970,000 tons, a 12.6% year-on-year increase; in July 2025, the textile and clothing imports in the US were 1.01 billion square meters, a 1.6% year-on-year increase; in August 2025, the textile and clothing imports in Japan were 210,000 tons, a 2.1% year-on-year decrease. Overall, domestic consumption performance was okay, but the cumulative year-on-year increase continued to narrow. External demand consumption recovered, and the US market's year-on-year imports continued to rise in July, but China's export situation remained weak [42].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The international cotton market is affected by tariff games, demand concerns, and new cotton harvest pressure, leading to a weakening trend in cotton prices. The poor export data from USDA also contributes to the weak performance [8]. - The domestic cotton market has low downstream textile enterprise operating rates, slow yarn inventory digestion, and weak demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. New flower listings restrict price drops, but strong basis limits further decline [8]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short - side approach on rallies, but stay on the sidelines before the National Day. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. Summary by Directory Market Overview Price Situation - Futures and spot cotton prices, as well as related price indices, are under downward pressure. The NYBOT 2 -号 cotton futures closed at 66.27 (down 0.05% week - on - week), the international cotton index M declined by 0.89% to 73.83, and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract price dropped 2.30% to 13,405 [5]. - Cotton import profits at the spot and futures levels are shrinking, while the loss in yarn imports is narrowing. The cotton basis strengthened this week [5]. Supply - Demand Factors - Globally, according to the USDA September report, cotton production is expected to increase by 0.91% to 25.6542 million tons, and inventory is expected to decrease by 1.04% to 15.9445 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio dropped to 61.55% [7]. - In the domestic market, production is expected to increase slightly by 3.17% to 7.085 million tons. Commercial inventory decreased by 32.34% to 1.4817 million tons, and imports increased by 40% to 70,000 tons. Textile exports decreased by 0.85% [7]. Spot Market Price and Spread - Spot cotton and yarn prices are in a high - level volatile and slow - decline state, with imported cotton prices at a low level. Cotton import profits remain relatively large [13][22]. - The basis of cotton and yarn showed a rebound this week [19]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - The USDA September report shows an increase in global cotton production and a decrease in inventory. US upland cotton exports decreased week - on - week [26][29]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase according to the September reports of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and USDA. Commercial inventory is in a destocking state, and port inventory continues to decline [33][37]. - Cotton imports rebounded month - on - month, but overall imports weakened. Textile enterprise operating rates are stable, yarn inventory is slowly decreasing, and cotton raw material inventory is declining. Cotton yarn imports did not increase significantly, and textile exports are not bad [40][42][45]. Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index rebounded, and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate slowed down [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2025/26 global cotton production, consumption are increased, and the estimated ending inventory is decreased, which is relatively positive for the cotton market [2] - Domestically, the inventory remains at a low level, and the market supply is still tight. Downstream orders have slightly increased, while the spinning mills' operating rate remains low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,895 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 19,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 34,949 lots, down 4,544 lots; that of cotton yarn futures is - 172 lots, up 142 lots [2] - The main contract's open interest for cotton is 492,631 lots, down 5,664 lots; for cotton yarn, it is 20,282 lots, down 858 lots [2] - Cotton's warehouse receipt quantity is 4,759 sheets, down 140 sheets; cotton yarn's is 89 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,300 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan; China's yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,775 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,388 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,440 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2] - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 14,224 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,793 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 tons, an increase of 54 tons [2] - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,475 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 87 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 5 tons, an increase of 2 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, unchanged [2] - The profit of imported cotton is 1,025 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 148.17 tons, a decrease of 70.81 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days [2] - The monthly output of cloth is 2.7 billion meters, down 0.79 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 199.15 tons, down 7.35 tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,516,175.9 million US dollars, down 10,495.5 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,160,400.9 million US dollars, down 44,419.8 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 11.06%, up 0.03%; that of put options is 11.09%, up 0.06% [2] - Cotton's 20 - day historical volatility is 9.75%, up 0.37%; 60 - day historical volatility is 7.04%, up 0.06% [2] Industry News - The US cotton supply - demand outlook for September 2025/26 shows a slight increase in production, while export, consumption, import or inventory remain unchanged. The US cotton production is expected to increase by 10,000 bales to 13.2 million bales [2] - As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate is 52%, down from 54% the previous week and up from 39% in the same period last year [2] - The USDA's September global cotton supply - demand report shows that the 2025/26 global cotton production forecast is increased by 23.1 tons to 2,562.2 tons, consumption is increased by 18.3 tons to 2,587.2 tons, and the ending inventory is decreased by 16.8 tons to 1,592.4 tons [2] Suggested Attention - No news today [2]

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded close to the previous high after the adjustment in the USDA report. There is an optimistic outlook for the new - year cotton production. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the downstream market shows marginal improvement, but the current recovery is limited. The USDA's August report tightened the global new - year cotton supply - demand expectations. The low inventory of old cotton supports near - month contracts, and the short - term cotton price center may rise with the marginal improvement in the downstream. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Market Supply - As of August 7, the national new cotton sales rate was 97.7%, 6.7 percentage points higher year - on - year and 8.4 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [2]. Import - In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons month - on - month and 130,000 tons year - on - year; the cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month - on - month and the same year - on - year; the cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% month - on - month and 24.37% year - on - year [2]. Demand - In July, the domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 96.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.63% month - on - month and an increase of 1.80% year - on - year; the textile and clothing export volume was 26.766 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.01% month - on - month and a decrease of 0.06% year - on - year [2]. Inventory - As of the end of July, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 644,600 tons from the end of June. The commercial inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June, and the industrial inventory was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the end of June [2]. International Market US Supply - As of August 10, the cotton budding rate in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 65%, 7 percentage points behind year - on - year and 6 percentage points behind the five - year average; the flocculation rate was 8%, 4 percentage points behind year - on - year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average. The overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 53%, a decrease of 2 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 7 percentage points year - on - year [2][3]. US Demand - From August 1 to 7, the net signing of US 25/26 - year upland cotton was 54,885 tons, a significant increase month - on - month, with 41,345 tons shipped; the net signing of Pima cotton was 476 tons, with 2,722 tons shipped; the net signing of 26/27 - year upland cotton was 249 tons, and there was no signing of 26/27 - year Pima cotton [3]. Southeast Asian Supply - As of August 8, the new - year cotton sowing area in India reached 10.7 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.7% year - on - year [3]. Southeast Asian Demand - In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.911 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.7% month - on - month and 5.3% year - on - year; in June, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.87% month - on - month and 6.31% year - on - year; in June, India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.30% month - on - month and an increase of 1.23% year - on - year; in June, Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.60% month - on - month and an increase of 7.59% year - on - year [3]. Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton 01 contract closed at 14,120 yuan, up 320 yuan with a 2.32% increase; Zhengzhou cotton 05 contract closed at 14,090 yuan, up 340 yuan with a 2.47% increase; Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,835 yuan, up 195 yuan with a 1.43% increase. The CC Index 3128B was 15,216 yuan, up 38 yuan with a 0.25% increase; the CC Index 2227B was 13,335 yuan, up 26 yuan with a 0.2% increase; the CC Index 2129B was 15,486 yuan, up 28 yuan with a 0.18% increase. The FC Index M was 13,576 yuan, up 156 yuan with a 1.16% increase; the FCY Index C32s was 21,255 yuan, up 68 yuan with a 0.32% increase. The cotton yarn futures price was 20,185 yuan, up 580 yuan with a 2.96% increase, and the spot price was 20,720 yuan, up 100 yuan with a 0.48% increase [22][26].