行业 棉花 日期 2026 年 3 月 2 日 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 关注政策变动，逢低布多 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenleil@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 月度报告 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃summary＃基本面：宏观方面，美最高院裁定特朗普全球关税违法，特 朗普动用 122 条款新推 15%关税，美方宣布特朗普将于 3 月 31 日至 4 月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The USDA supply and demand report is bullish as it lowers both global and US cotton production and inventory, but short - term global cotton prices are constrained by a stronger US dollar and Trump's tariff risks [18] - Domestically, cotton production has increased, but inventory accumulation is lower than expected. The market anticipates a decline in planting area in the new season, leading to a tight long - term supply [18] - Currently, the domestic - foreign cotton price spread is high, and the domestic market is over - valued compared to the international market. Short - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, while in the long - term, they are expected to strengthen due to strong demand and the expectation of reduced planting area [18] Summary of Key Points by Section Global Cotton Supply and Demand Situation - The USDA's January supply and demand report shows a global 2025/26 cotton production estimate of 119.43 million bales, down from the December estimate of 119.79 million bales [2] - The global 2025/26 cotton ending inventory estimate is 74.48 million bales, down from the December estimate of 75.97 million bales, making the supply - demand report bullish [2] US Cotton Supply and Demand Situation - The 2025/26 US cotton production estimate is 13.92 million bales, a month - on - month decrease of 350,000 bales from the December estimate [3] - The 2025/26 US cotton ending inventory estimate is 4.2 million bales, a month - on - month decrease of 300,000 bales (a 7% decline) from December, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 30.4% [3] Domestic Cotton Industry Chain Situation Domestic Cotton Planting Area - The 2025/26 national cotton production estimate is 7.73 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and an increase of 880,000 tons (a 12.84% increase) compared to the 2024/25 season [5] - The average seed cotton purchase price this year is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg, corresponding to a cotton cost of about 14,600 yuan/ton [9] Cotton Inventory Situation - As of the end of January, the commercial cotton inventory is 5.79 million tons, at a historical high for the same period, with a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons, but the inventory accumulation rate is lower than expected [11] - As of the end of January, the industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises is 1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons, and the industrial inventory is at a neutral level. With low downstream profits, textile mills have little motivation to actively replenish inventory [13] Cotton Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - As of February 10, 2026, the domestic - foreign cotton price spread (the difference between the domestic spot B index and the landed cost of imported cotton under 1% tariff) is about 3,600 yuan/ton, with the domestic price significantly higher than the international price and at a ten - year high [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for cotton is "Bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply-demand outlook for the cotton market is tightening, and the cotton market is expected to fluctuate upward. In 2026, the ICE cotton price is expected to be volatile and bullish, with an estimated operating range of 60 - 80 cents per pound. The Zhengzhou cotton market is also generally optimistic, with an estimated range of 13,300 - 16,500 yuan per ton [1][2][165][167] Summary According to the Directory 1. 2025: Trade War and Strong Demand Caused Volatility in Zhengzhou Cotton, with a Strong Domestic and Weak Overseas Performance - In 2025, Zhengzhou cotton showed a wide - range volatile trend. The trade war intensified the fluctuations, but strong domestic demand provided support. The main contract price of Zhengzhou cotton operated between 12,300 - 14,300 yuan per ton, while the overseas market was generally weak, operating between 60 - 70 cents per pound [14] - From January to March, Zhengzhou cotton was relatively resistant to decline compared to the overseas market, and the internal - external price difference widened. The overseas market was weak due to the expected supply - demand loosening and trade war concerns [14] - From April to May, trade policy changes led to increased volatility in both domestic and overseas markets. Zhengzhou cotton first fell and then rose, and the internal - external price difference first narrowed and then expanded [15] - From June to August, rapid domestic commercial inventory depletion and a strong commodity atmosphere drove up Zhengzhou cotton, while the overseas market was weak [15] - In September, the expectation of increased Xinjiang cotton production led to a decline in Zhengzhou cotton, and the internal - external price difference narrowed [16] - From October to December, Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise, and the internal - external price difference widened further. The overseas market was under pressure due to weak export demand and seasonal supply pressure [16] 2. International Cotton Fundamental Situation 2.1 United States - **25/26 Season**: The supply of US cotton was relatively loose. The planting area decreased by 16.8% to 9.3 million acres, the yield decreased slightly by 1% to 3.107 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 12.5% to 980,000 tons. The export signing progress was slow, but there is a possibility of improvement in the second half of the season [20][29][30] - **26/27 Season**: The planting area is expected to decrease by about 3.3% to around 9 million acres. The yield is estimated to be between 2.94 - 3.31 million tons. The supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten, and the ICE cotton price is estimated to operate between 60 - 80 cents per pound [34][35][45] 2.2 India - **25/26 Season**: The production is expected to be stable at around 5.225 million tons, but there is a possibility of downward adjustment. The consumption may be revised downwards due to trade issues. CCI's large - scale purchases will increase import demand [50][51][53] - **26/27 Season**: The planting area is expected to decline due to low cotton - grain price ratios and flood - damaged farmer incomes [62] 2.3 Brazil - The 26/27 season's planting and production are expected to decline slightly. As of December 20, 2025, the planting progress was 16.9%, 3 percentage points slower than the previous year. Different institutions have different estimates of the production decline, generally around 5 - 10% [65][66][67] 2.4 Global - **25/26 Season**: The global cotton supply - demand is in a loose balance, with production slightly increasing by 0.4% to 26.081 million tons and consumption slightly decreasing by 0.3% to 25.824 million tons [70] - **26/27 Season**: The global planting area is expected to decrease by about 5%, and the production is estimated to decline by 800,000 - 1.5 million tons. The consumption is expected to increase slightly by about 1.2% (310,000 tons), resulting in a supply - demand shortage of 800,000 - 1.5 million tons [73] 2.5 Summary and Market Outlook of the International Cotton Market - The market focus will gradually shift to the 26/27 season. The global economic recovery is expected to improve cotton demand, and the supply - demand situation in the 26/27 season is expected to tighten. The ICE cotton price is estimated to operate between 60 - 80 cents per pound [82][85][86] 3. Domestic Cotton Fundamental Situation 3.1 25/26 Season Xinjiang Cotton - The output is expected to increase, with the estimated output between 7.3 - 7.5 million tons. The seed - cotton purchase price was stable, and the ginning mills' processing and sales progress was fast [87][91][94] 3.2 2026 Xinjiang Cotton Planting Area - It is likely to be reduced, but the reduction幅度 is uncertain. Policy regulation and farmers' planting willingness are the key factors [95][97][99] 3.3 Commercial Inventory - Although the domestic cotton production increased in the 25/26 season, the commercial inventory was basically the same as the previous year. The market is worried about a repeat of the supply shortage in the 24/25 season [101][102] 3.4 Imports - **Cotton**: The import quota is expected to be strictly controlled in the 25/26 season, with an estimated commercial import volume of about 1.1 million tons [104] - **Cotton Yarn**: The import volume is expected to increase by more than 300,000 tons, depending on the future internal - external cotton price difference [105] 3.5 Downstream Textile Industry - The industry is highly competitive, with low profits. The cotton - yarn social inventory is relatively healthy, but there are blockages in the downstream weaving mills and their subsequent sectors [110][113][119] 3.6 Terminal Textile and Apparel - **Export**: The export of textile and apparel is resilient. The demand from Belt and Road countries stabilizes textile exports, and the export to the US and the EU is expected to improve in 2026 [127][134][139] - **Domestic Demand**: It is expected to maintain a moderate growth trend, supported by policy but also affected by factors such as the real - estate market and industry competition [157] 3.7 Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **25/26 Season**: The supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance, with an estimated output of about 7.7 million tons, an import of about 1.1 million tons, and a consumption of 8.6 - 8.7 million tons [160] - **26/27 Season**: The supply - demand gap is expected to widen, and the state may need to issue additional import quotas or conduct state reserve sales [162] 4. Summary and Outlook - Internationally, the supply - demand outlook is tightening, and the ICE cotton price is expected to be volatile and bullish in 2026, with an estimated range of 60 - 80 cents per pound [165] - Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton market is generally optimistic in 2026, with an estimated range of 13,300 - 16,500 yuan per ton. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory depletion, imports, and consumption [167] 5. Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to take a long position on dips [4][170] - **Arbitrage**: Consider the 5 - 9 reverse spread, but the weakening space of the spread is expected to be limited [4][170]

Report Title - "No obvious negative factors, short - term high - level shock - Cotton Weekly Report 20251229" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report believes that the cotton market is expected to be volatile and bullish. International cotton prices briefly pulled back due to limited improvement in export data at the beginning of the week but then rebounded driven by improved US cotton contracts and shipment data, as well as the strength of the peripheral financial and grain markets. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton continued its strong upward trend, mainly driven by policy expectations. The market rumor of a potential reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year and the approaching evaluation window of the target price subsidy policy have led to strong expectations of future supply contraction. Meanwhile, the overall production and sales in the textile downstream are fair, and the slight increase in cotton yarn prices has provided some support to the market. Key attention should be paid to policies and demand - side new market information [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review US Cotton Weekly Market Review - ICE cotton was reported at 63.36 - 64.81 cents per pound, with the Friday closing price at 64.49, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2%. As of December 12, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1039 to 21369, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 1343 to 38677, equivalent to 880,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of unpriced contracts of ICE sellers decreased to 48505, equivalent to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 1188 compared to the previous week, or 30,000 tons [9] Zhengzhou Cotton Weekly Market Review - It was reported at 14040 - 14700 yuan per ton, with the Friday closing price at 14535 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan. As of December 19, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 3870, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 3852, totaling 7722, equivalent to 324,324 tons [10] Domestic Cotton Spot Market - This week, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly. The spot fixed - price transactions of cotton were active, mainly purchased by traders. The spot fixed - price of cotton gradually increased with the rise of Zhengzhou cotton and active trading. The basis of spot sales changed little, with local rigid - demand transactions, and many transactions were light. As of Friday, the fixed - price quotes of machine - picked cotton of grades 31 - 41/double 29/impurity within 3 in the northern and southern Xinjiang regions in 2025/26 were mostly above 15400 - 15500 (on a legal weight basis). For the same quality, the low basis in the Kashgar area was CF05 + 800 - 900, and the basis quotes in the northern Xinjiang production area were mostly above 1000, with a small amount below 1000. The low basis of grade 41 was mainly 900 - 1000, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [12][15] 2. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, reaching a new high since 2013. Among them, the Xinjiang cotton region is particularly prominent, with an expected total output of about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total output [18] Import - In October 2025, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons (compared to 105,800 tons) and a month - on - month decrease of 5000 tons (compared to 95,000 tons). From January to October 2025, the cumulative import was 770,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.4% or 1.595 million tons (compared to 2.3662 million tons). In the 2025/26 season, the cumulative import was 185,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% or 38,000 tons (compared to 223,100 tons) [24] Demand - Demand performance is average but still shows resilience. The operating rate remains flat [27][33] Profit - This week, the processing profit of ginning factories was 1013 - 1078 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1351.5 - - 507 yuan per ton [36] Inventory - As of the week of December 26, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.125 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,700 tons, 99,200 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of November, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 925,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51,400 tons [42] 3. International Market Global Cotton Supply and Demand - In the report released by USDA on December 10, the US cotton output in the 2025/26 season was further increased by 30,000 tons to 3.11 million tons. The global cotton output was reduced by 60,000 tons to 26.08 million tons compared to November, and the global cotton consumption was reduced by 60,000 tons to 25.82 million tons, with an overall limited impact [44]

Market Overview - The cotton futures contract 2605 closed at 14,255 CNY/ton, an increase of 75 CNY/ton or 0.53% from the previous day [2][7] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,086 CNY/ton, up by 5 CNY/ton, while the national average price was 15,279 CNY/ton, an increase of 8 CNY/ton [2][7] Supply and Demand Analysis - The USDA made minor adjustments to global cotton supply and demand data, with a slight reduction in both production and consumption for the 2025/26 season, leading to a marginal increase in ending stocks [3][8] - U.S. cotton production has been slightly adjusted upwards, resulting in increased inventory pressure after two months of adjustments [3][8] - The northern hemisphere is experiencing a concentrated harvest of new cotton, creating temporary supply pressure, while global textile consumption remains weak [3][8] Domestic Market Insights - Domestic cotton production is expected to continue increasing in the 2025/26 season, with commercial inventories showing seasonal growth due to the ongoing harvest [3][8] - Despite the seasonal supply being ample, the sales pace in Xinjiang is accelerating, reducing hedging resistance in the market [3][8] - Demand remains weak with few new orders, but market sentiment is improving as the double festival approaches, leading to smoother sales of finished products [3][8] Strategic Outlook - The strategy is neutral to slightly bullish, as downstream capacity expansion is expected to increase domestic cotton consumption [4][9] - With low expectations for import volumes, the supply-demand balance for the new season is not anticipated to be overly loose, especially with increasing expectations of reduced planting in Xinjiang for 2026 [4][9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: The 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease, and the ending stocks increase slightly. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, while in the long - term, it has limited downward space. In China, the supply is abundant in the short - term, but the downstream demand is weak. However, the improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. - Sugar: The 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. Although the short - term factors support the rebound of raw sugar prices, the upside space is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has sufficient short - term supply, but its low valuation restricts the further decline [5]. - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. European port pulp inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal demand is still insufficient. However, the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize gradually [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,960 yuan/ton yesterday, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.25%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,978 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the national average price was 15,139 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's cotton imports were 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons (34.4%) and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (9.4%). From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0% [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply - demand data this month is small. The US cotton production increases slightly, and there is greater inventory pressure. The short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the long - term upward driver is not clear. - Domestic: China's cotton production in the 25/26 season continues to increase. The short - term supply is abundant, but the downstream demand is weak. The improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. Strategy Be neutral to bullish, focus on the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,102 yuan/ton yesterday, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.72%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's sugar imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 season, the imports were 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's sugarcane harvest is accelerating, India's exports are difficult to increase in the short - term, and Thailand's sugarcane crushing is delayed. Although the short - term raw sugar price rebounds, the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern restricts its upside space. - Zhengzhou sugar: Guangxi sugar mills are starting production, with short - term sufficient supply. However, the low valuation restricts its downward space [5]. Strategy Be neutral to bearish. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,500 yuan/ton yesterday, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,095 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total inventory of pulp in 1 region and 8 ports decreased by 1.39% week - on - week, and the decline narrowed by 3.50 percentage points [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, such as Domtar closing the Crofton paper mill and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill having a temporary shutdown. - Demand: The European port pulp inventory in October decreased, showing some improvement in demand. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, but the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize [7]. Strategy Be neutral. Although the pulp price has risen strongly recently, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation restricts its upside space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: December 18, 2025 [2] Group 2: Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure and adjusting, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The domestic cotton market has support from domestic demand, while the overseas market shows limited adjustments and an expanding price difference between domestic and foreign markets [7][8] Group 3: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Spot market: The latest cotton price index for grade 328 is 15,144 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The negotiated price for machine-picked cotton in North and South Xinjiang for the 2025/26 season is around 14,750 yuan/ton on a net weight basis [7] - Cotton yarn market: Trading is average, with few new orders. Only high-count yarns are selling well. Cotton yarn prices are temporarily stable, but some large manufacturers are offering significant discounts to clear inventory. Xinjiang textile enterprises are barely making a profit, while inland enterprises continue to lose money [7] - Grey cloth market: Trading has improved slightly in some areas but remains dull overall. Orders are being repeated quickly, but shipments have not increased significantly [7] Macro and Overseas Markets - Macro: The prospect of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine seems to be strengthening, causing oil prices to decline continuously and dragging down the performance of the external market [8] - Overseas: The USDA's December global cotton supply and demand report shows a slight decrease in both production and consumption, with a slight accumulation of global ending stocks. US cotton production has increased slightly, and stocks are mainly accumulating. Overall, the adjustment is limited, and US cotton remains in a weak oscillation. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets continues to widen [8] Domestic Market - Supply: As of December 16, 2025, the cumulative national inspection volume is 5.5196 million tons, an increase of 79,100 tons from the previous day. The commercial inventory is still in the seasonal accumulation stage, reaching 4.6836 million tons at the end of November [8] - Demand: The current operating rate has decreased slightly. The profit and cash flow of textile enterprises have deteriorated marginally, but the pressure on finished product inventory is still not significant. In November, the domestic revenue from clothing, footwear, and textiles was 154.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, indicating that domestic demand support still exists [8] Group 4: Industry News - As of December 16, 2025, 1,082 cotton processing enterprises across the country have processed and conducted notarized inspections on cotton in accordance with the reform plan for the cotton quality inspection system. The cumulative national inspection volume is 24,451,412 bales, totaling 5.5196 million tons, an increase of 79,100 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang is 24,181,404 bales, totaling 5.4591 million tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in inland areas is 151,147 bales, totaling 33,500 tons [9] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different contracts, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [14][16][18]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 16, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The trading center of Zhengzhou cotton continues to move upward. The short - term market focuses on the 2026/27 Xinjiang cotton target price area control policy, and Zhengzhou cotton maintains a relatively strong trend with the pressure level gradually moving up [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest cotton price index for grade 328 is 15,060 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The transaction price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang for the 2025/26 season is around 14,750 (gross weight). The base price for low - basis transactions of the same quality is CF01 + 800 - 900, and most base price quotes are still above 900 [7]. - **Domestic Downstream Market**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average with few new orders, only high - count yarns have good sales. The price of pure - cotton yarn remains stable for now, some large factories may offer significant discounts to clear inventory. Xinjiang textile enterprises barely maintain profits, while inland textile enterprises continue to lose money. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market has improved locally but remains dull overall. Orders are turning over quickly, but shipments have not increased much [7]. - **Overseas Market**: The US Department of Agriculture's December global cotton supply - demand report shows a slight decline in both production and consumption, and a slight accumulation of global ending stocks. US cotton production has increased slightly, and inventory accumulation is the main trend. Future attention should be paid to the sales progress of US cotton and changes in CFTC positions [8]. - **Domestic Market Data**: As of December 14, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume nationwide is 5.3736 million tons. The commercial inventory is in the seasonal accumulation stage, reaching 4.6836 million tons at the end of November. The current operating rate has decreased slightly, the marginal deterioration of textile enterprises' profits and cash flow is small, and the finished - product inventory pressure is still not large. In November, the domestic revenue from clothing, footwear, and textiles was 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, indicating that domestic demand support still exists [8]. 3.2 Industry News - In November 2025, China's revenue from clothing, footwear, and textiles was 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative revenue was 1.3597 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, with the growth rate unchanged from the previous month [9]. - As of the week ending November 18, according to CFTC data, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton futures funds were 73,671 (+4,533) contracts, turning from a decrease to an increase; the short positions were 117,858 (- 870) contracts, decreasing for the fifth consecutive week; the total ICE positions were 279,627 (-16,722) contracts, decreasing for the second consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 15.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 percentage points [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including cotton futures prices, cotton basis changes, spreads between different cotton futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt volumes, and exchange rates (USD/CNY and USD/INR), with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][20][28][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In the 2024 - 25 season, global cotton demand grew steadily driven by China and the US, but the significant increase in production led to weak prices. In the domestic market, due to a sharp reduction in imports, the spot market was tight, prices were relatively firm, and the basis was high with a large gap between domestic and international prices. In the 2025 - 26 season, global production will continue to grow, while the demand side has uncertainties as China's economy is expected to recover but the US economy is uncertain. Considering the tight domestic spot market, cotton prices are expected to remain in a volatile and slightly upward - trending pattern next year [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factor Analysis - **Gradual recovery of social retail data**: From January to October 2025, China's social consumer goods retail market showed stable growth, structural optimization, and urban - rural coordination. The total retail sales from January to October reached 4.12169 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. With policy and technological support, the annual total is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan [4][7]. - **Relatively large pressure on price levels**: In 2025, China's prices showed a "low - then - high, moderately recovering" trend. The CPI turned positive in October (up 0.2% year - on - year) and then declined slightly in November (down 0.5% year - on - year). The PPI turned positive in October (up 0.1% month - on - month) and then decreased in November (down 0.3% month - on - month), but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. In 2026, prices are expected to rise moderately [8][11]. - **Expected steady recovery of the macro - economy**: With policy changes, the macro - economy is expected to show a steady recovery. On the supply side, measures include increasing high - quality service supply and reducing over - capacity. On the demand side, external demand from the US and Europe is expected to be stable, and domestic demand potential lies in service consumption [12][13]. - **Strong resilience of the US economy**: In November, the US PMI was supported by the service sector, with manufacturing declining, consumer spending slowing, and corporate investment to be further restored. The third - quarter GDP growth rate was 3.9% quarter - on - quarter annualized. The employment market showed some signs of recovery, but there were still risks of layoffs. The market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut fluctuated greatly [14][21]. 3.2 Cotton Supply Analysis - **Slightly loose global supply - demand balance**: According to the USDA's November report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, an increase of 2.0% from September; consumption is expected to be 25.883 million tons, an increase of 0.04%; and the ending inventory is expected to be 16.532 million tons, an increase of 3.8%. The ending inventory has reached a recent high [23]. - **Tight domestic supply - demand situation**: In the 2025/26 season, the domestic beginning inventory is 6.16 million tons, and the production is 7.42 million tons. The total demand is expected to be 8.45 million tons, with the ending inventory decreasing to 6.33 million tons. The domestic market is relatively tight due to reduced imports and stable consumption [25]. - **Tight commercial and industrial inventories**: As of November 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 24.2% from the end of October but 5.31% lower than the same period last year. The industrial inventory was 931,400 tons, an increase of 59,400 tons year - on - year. The overall inventory is still limited [26]. 3.3 Cotton Spinning Consumption Analysis - **Strong US consumption**: From January to August 2025, the US textile and clothing imports increased by 4.43% in volume and 1.47% in value year - on - year. The cotton product imports increased by 3.83% in volume and 4.66% in value. In September, the retail sales of clothing and accessories increased by 6.65% year - on - year [31]. - **Export performance with high - then - low trend**: In October 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59%. From January to October, the exports were 243.936 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.58%. The export situation was better in the first half of the year [34]. - **Steady growth of domestic demand**: In October 2025, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 1205.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [38]. 3.4 Main Concerns - **Changes in Xinjiang cotton planting policy**: The continuous increase in Xinjiang's cotton planting area and production has put pressure on the supply - demand balance and increased subsidy costs. The direct subsidy policy is likely to be adjusted, and there may be other policies to adjust the planting area [43]. - **Changes in the RMB exchange rate**: With the depreciation of the US dollar and the strength of China's manufacturing, the RMB is appreciating, which may bring pressure on textile and clothing exports [44]. - **Sustainability of US consumption**: Although the US textile and clothing consumption has been strong, there are concerns about the US economy due to weak employment data and PMI. However, the Fed's interest - rate cuts may support the economy [45]. 3.5 Market Outlook In 2026, the global cotton market is expected to see both supply and demand increase. The domestic spot market will remain tight. With the Fed's interest - rate cuts and China's economic recovery, cotton prices are expected to be volatile and slightly upward - trending, but attention should be paid to policy, exchange - rate, and consumption changes [46].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - For cotton, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with limited up and down space. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases. It's advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [1][2] - For sugar, short - term prices have limited downward space and may have a weak rebound, but the medium - to - long - term domestic supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price trend may not be optimistic next year [3][5] - For pulp, the current fundamental improvement is insufficient, and pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,625 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,882 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. As of October 9, 2025, the US had cumulatively net - signed 1.065 million tons of 2025/26 cotton exports, accounting for 40.11% of the annual expected exports, and cumulatively shipped 318,000 tons with a shipment rate of 29.89%. China had cumulatively signed 28,000 tons of US cotton imports, accounting for 2.65% of the signed US cotton, and cumulatively shipped 5,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA report significantly increased the global cotton production in 2025/26, and the global cotton ending inventory increased significantly compared to September and shifted from destocking to restocking. The sales pressure of US cotton increased significantly. The short - term external market is expected to be under pressure. - Domestic: After the National Day, the expected new cotton output decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, pushing up the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. However, there is strong hedging pressure after the price increase, and the expected output in Xinjiang has increased again. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downside space of the futures price is limited [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,379 yuan/ton yesterday, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,470 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. It is expected that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November will be 18.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.9%, and the sugar output will be 1.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.9% [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The supply in Brazil in the second half of October was strong, strengthening the surplus expectation. India's sugar production is expected to rebound significantly in the 25/26 season, and the global bumper harvest pattern suppresses the price. However, the short - term export volume in India is difficult to increase, and the supply pressure in Brazil will gradually weaken, so the downward space of raw sugar is limited. - Zhengzhou sugar: The latest announced sugar and syrup imports were higher than expected, and the sugar mills in Guangxi have successively started crushing, so the short - term supply pressure is high, and the price has reached a new low [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,208 yuan/ton yesterday, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,465 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,955 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import wood pulp spot market had some price fluctuations, with some prices of imported softwood pulp falling and some prices of imported hardwood pulp rising [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: In September, the European pulp port inventory decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply remained loose. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price. Although there was a large - scale new production capacity of finished paper this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious [7]