| 14 | | --- | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、国际市场 | | 3 | | | | 三、美国 4 | | 四、其他国家 | | 5 | | 五、国内市场 | | 6 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 10 | | | | 免责声明 11 | 棉系板块研发报告 棉系 2 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 基本面有所支撑 棉价表现偏强 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2 月棉花期货价格震荡偏强为主，供应端变化不大，新年度市场传闻有 减产预期，对棉价有一定支撑；需求端下游整体还未完全复工，伴随着近期 棉花价格上涨下游各环节对金三银四有一定期待，但在备货方面仍偏谨慎。 liuqiannan_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期 货 从 业 资 格 证 号 ： F03118729 、 F3013727 投 资 咨 询 资 格 证 号 ： Z0022 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The global cotton supply side is experiencing a "double reduction" in exports from Brazil and the United States. The bottom characteristics of US cotton prices are clear under the dual signals of cost inversion and basis repair, and an upward channel for cotton prices is expected to open [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply - side Contraction Expectation Continues to Strengthen - **Brazil**: As the world's largest cotton exporter, it ends a 5 - year capacity expansion. The CONAB report on January 15 predicts a 6.3% year - on - year decrease in cotton production in 25/26, with continuous downward revisions since October 2025. The core producing state of Mato Grosso is expected to have a more radical production cut of 14.5% [3]. - **United States**: The latest WASDE report on January 12 significantly revises down the 25/26 cotton yield per unit by 7.8%, reduces production by 2.5%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio drops, significantly alleviating inventory pressure [3]. 2. Hard Logic Behind the Production Cut - **Brazilian farmers' profit situation**: Brazilian cotton farmers face a loss with a cost - return rate of - 15.5%, while the competing second - season corn still has an 8.4% return, and the operating cost of corn is only one - third of that of cotton [4]. - **Sowing progress**: Brazil's current sowing rate is only 8.1% (compared to 14.2% in the same period last year). Missing the best growth period for cotton will further strengthen the production cut expectation [4]. 3. Clear Bottoming of US Cotton Prices - **Cost inversion**: The current price (~65 cents/pound) is significantly lower than the average US planting cost (~80 cents/pound) and approaches the policy mortgage interest rate (54.4 cents/pound), with very limited downward space [5]. - **Basis signal**: The basis of basic - grade cotton is at a historical low. High - quality cotton in January has shown a positive basis, which is judged as a leading signal for a medium - term upward price movement [5]. - **Investment advice**: With the implementation of the production cut expectation and the stricter traceability of clothing exports to the United States, the procurement concentration of US cotton is expected to increase. It is recommended to focus on [Bailong Eastern Co., Ltd.], and related target [Texhong International Group]. The low - cost cotton inventory held by these companies will release significant profit elasticity during the upward cycle of cotton prices, and the gross profit margin is expected to be repaired in a positive basis environment [5]. Historical US Cotton Price Analysis - The historical US cotton price has fluctuated greatly due to various factors such as events, policies, and climate. For example, in 2011, the cotton price reached a new high due to factors such as China's cotton purchase and storage policy, India's export ban, and Pakistan's floods [8]. Global Cotton Production and Export Situation - **24/25 Global Top Ten Cotton - Producing Countries**: The top four cotton - producing countries (China, India, Brazil, and the United States) account for about 73% of the total global output. China and India mainly consume their output domestically, while Brazil and the United States export their output [19]. - **24/25 Global Top Ten Cotton - Exporting Countries**: Brazil and the United States together account for nearly 60% of the global cotton export volume. The change in Brazil's supply - demand structure will have a significant impact on the trend of US cotton prices [22]. - **Production Growth of Top Ten Cotton - Exporting Countries**: From 20/21 - 24/25, the production growth rates of different countries vary. For example, Mali has a 257% growth rate, while India has a - 16% growth rate [24]. US Cotton Situation - **25/26 Production Forecast**: Despite the expected increase in the harvested area of US 25/26 cotton, the yield per unit is significantly reduced by 7.8%, resulting in a 2.5% decrease in production compared to the December forecast and a 3.4% decrease compared to 2024/25. The inventory - to - consumption ratio decreases [27]. - **Export Market Change**: In 2018, affected by the Sino - US trade friction, Vietnam became the largest importer of US cotton. In 2024, China regained the top position. It is expected that Southeast Asian countries may increase their procurement of US cotton [29]. Brazilian Cotton Situation - **25/26 Supply and Demand Forecast**: The CONAB report on January 15, 2026, predicts that Brazil's 25/26 cotton planting area will decrease by 2.8% compared to 2024/25, and the output is expected to be 3.82 million tons, a 6.3% decrease from the October 2025 forecast [31]. - **Sowing and Yield**: The sowing rate and yield of Brazilian cottonseeds in 25/26 are lower than last year. The sowing rate is 31.9%, 1.6 percentage points lower than 24/25, and the expected output of cottonseeds in 25/26 is down 6.3% year - on - year and 3.6% month - on - month [34]. - **Mato Grosso State**: The IMEA has significantly reduced the 25/26 planting area in Mato Grosso State by 7.3%, and the total lint output is expected to decrease by 14.5% due to area reduction and yield per unit returning to the average [38]. - **Profit Analysis**: Brazilian cotton planting in the 25/26 season has a cost - return rate of - 15.5%. Competing second - season corn has a better profit situation, and there is a possibility of farmers switching to corn planting. In addition, the current price of Brazilian lint is lower than the US cotton futures price, and the basis decline is widening [40].

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures market is experiencing a strong rally, with the main contract in Zhengzhou breaking through key resistance levels, showing a nearly 1,000 yuan per ton increase since December, significantly outperforming U.S. cotton and becoming a focal point in the commodity market [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent price increase in Zheng cotton is driven by strong expectations of reduced cotton production in the new year, which has been gradually confirmed by recent developments [2] - The Xinjiang Cotton Association indicated that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang may face structural reductions in 2026, which is expected to influence the domestic cotton supply landscape long-term [2] - The current supply-demand balance in the cotton market is tight, with a notable decrease in import ratios and low carryover stocks, maintaining a robust long-term fundamental outlook [3] Group 2: Demand Factors - The resilience of demand in the cotton market is a significant driver of the current price trend, supported by retail sales data and operational rates of midstream textile enterprises [3] - In November, retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles reached 154.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, indicating stable demand in the cotton textile industry [3] Group 3: Price Pressures and Market Sentiment - The market is characterized by a coexistence of strong expectations and weak realities, with rising cotton prices exceeding processing costs for ginning factories, leading to some hedging pressure [4] - The seasonal off-peak period is affecting downstream cotton yarn prices, which are struggling to keep pace with rising cotton prices, potentially impacting profit margins for yarn manufacturers [4] - The price disparity between Zheng cotton and U.S. cotton is widening, with U.S. cotton prices remaining stagnant due to a lack of sufficient drivers, although there are concerns about indirect impacts from imported cotton yarn on domestic consumption [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The cotton import volume remains at historical lows, with a 67.5% year-on-year decrease expected for the 2024/2025 season, which is unlikely to alter the domestic supply structure significantly [5] - Short-term cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, driven by a combination of strong expectations and realities, reducing the likelihood of a shift to bearish sentiment [5] - The cotton subsidy policy is increasingly favoring high-quality cotton, with expectations for adjustments in the target price subsidy policy in 2026, which could further support cotton prices [5] - Overall, short-term market optimism is likely to persist, with medium to long-term projections indicating potential upward price movement supported by supply reduction expectations and resilient demand [5]

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures market is experiencing a strong rally, with Zheng cotton futures breaking through key resistance levels, driven by strong expectations of reduced cotton production and supported by supply-demand fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - Zheng cotton futures have seen a price increase of nearly 1,000 yuan per ton since December, outperforming U.S. cotton [1]. - The market's bullish sentiment is largely due to expectations of a reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, confirmed by a recent meeting of the Xinjiang Cotton Industry Development Leadership Group [1]. - The current supply-demand balance in the cotton market is tight, with a significant reduction in import ratios and low carryover stocks, preventing a loose supply situation [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand side remains resilient, with retail sales of clothing and textiles reaching 154.2 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [2]. - Despite a slight decrease in operating rates among midstream textile enterprises, the demand for yarn remains strong, indicating manageable inventory pressures [2]. Group 3: Market Challenges and Comparisons - The market is characterized by a coexistence of strong expectations and weak realities, with rising cotton prices exceeding processing costs for ginning factories, leading to some hedging pressures [3]. - The seasonal off-peak period is affecting downstream cotton yarn prices, which are struggling to keep pace with rising cotton prices, potentially impacting profit margins for yarn manufacturers [3]. - In contrast to Zheng cotton's strength, U.S. cotton prices remain stagnant due to a lack of sufficient driving factors, leading to an expanding price gap between domestic and international cotton [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, driven by a combination of strong expectations and realities, reducing the likelihood of a reversal into bearish territory [4]. - There are expectations for favorable policy adjustments, particularly regarding cotton subsidies aimed at enhancing quality, with the target price subsidy policy set to undergo changes in 2026 [4]. - Overall, the market sentiment remains optimistic in the short term, with medium to long-term projections indicating potential upward price movement supported by supply reduction expectations and resilient demand [4].