继北京之后，上海昨天出台了楼市新政。 对于上海的新政，我在昨天公众号"刘晓博说楼市"做了点评，也谈及了以万科为代表的地产股的强势反 弹。 很多读者关心的是：在年底之前，楼市还有哪些利好出台，会不会有超级大招。 目前在外地出差，时间比较紧张，我直接给出预判： 在年底之前，应该没有专门针对楼市的超级大招了。在这方面，大家不能奢望了。 什么才能算得上超级大招？目前这个阶段，我能想到的只有两个： 一是官宣大幅减少卖地，甚至让一批人口停止增长的三四线城市停止卖地3到5年。 二是成立一个3万亿元起跳的房地产稳定基金，用来收储开发商手中闲置的土地、过剩的房屋。 原创 刘晓博 但去年10月8日上证指数是一根光头大阴线，3.48万亿是主力疯狂出逃制造出来的。最近成交额不断创 新高，是在指数持续上攻中走出来的。 在当前市场氛围下，4000点已经不是问题。越来越的增量资金进入市场，行情将持续一段时间。 股市好了，有了赚钱效应，悲观的预期就会降低。这其实就是楼市的大利好。 停止卖地，或者承诺未来几年大幅减少卖地，这个难度极大。虽然可以通过增发地方债来支撑一段时 间，但撑不了太久。 事实上，疫情之后很多中小城市卖地并没有明显减少，拿地 ...

Core Insights - The Beijing second-hand housing market is experiencing a significant increase in listing volume, driven by favorable policies such as interest rate cuts [1] - There is a notable rise in both inquiries and property viewings, with an increase of 15%-20% compared to previous periods [1] - The buying sentiment among first-time homebuyers has notably improved, leading to a reduction in the purchasing cycle from 3-4 months to 1-2 months [1] - Some high-quality properties are reportedly being sold within 15 days of listing [1]

Group 1 - The latest survey by the China Index Academy indicates that the home buying intention among residents has increased, with approximately 16% expressing a willingness to purchase, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - There is a notable recovery in confidence regarding property prices in lower-tier cities, with expectations of price declines decreasing to about 53%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points [1] - The expectation of rising property prices has also grown, with 17% anticipating price increases, up by 3.4 percentage points, reflecting an overall improvement in residents' future price expectations [1] Group 2 - Investment willingness among respondents has improved, with 29% indicating a desire to invest, an increase of 10.7 percentage points [1] - Future market trends are expected to be positively influenced by favorable policies, including urban renewal initiatives and potential reductions in home purchase thresholds and increased subsidies [2] - The support for policies related to the acquisition of existing properties is anticipated to strengthen, which may accelerate the revitalization of existing stock [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Guangming District is experiencing a robust recovery, driven by significant urban development and increased public interest, with a notable rise in both new and second-hand residential transactions in early 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Performance - From January to April 2025, Guangming District saw a total of 2,542 residential transactions, marking a 144% year-on-year increase [1]. - New residential sales reached 2,139 units during the same period, up 148% year-on-year, with April alone accounting for 449 units sold, a 78% increase [2]. - The inventory of commercial housing in Guangming has significantly decreased, with a six-month sales cycle, the shortest in the city [2]. - The average sales price for new residential properties increased by 2.7% month-on-month in April 2025, while second-hand residential prices rose by 0.5% [2]. Group 2: Government Policies and Market Impact - The Chinese government has introduced favorable housing policies, including an increase in housing provident fund loan limits and a reduction in existing mortgage rates, which are gradually restoring market confidence [2]. - On May 8, the People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates, potentially saving borrowers significant interest costs [2][3]. - Financial policies aimed at increasing market liquidity, such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio and adjusting the reverse repurchase rate, are expected to positively influence the stability of the real estate market [3]. Group 3: Urban Development and Public Engagement - Guangming District has been actively enhancing its urban infrastructure, with new public facilities and cultural events contributing to its growing appeal as a modern scientific city [1]. - The opening of the Shenzhen Science and Technology Museum attracted nearly 150,000 visitors during the May Day holiday, highlighting the district's rising profile in the Greater Bay Area [1].