继北京之后，上海昨天出台了楼市新政。 对于上海的新政，我在昨天公众号"刘晓博说楼市"做了点评，也谈及了以万科为代表的地产股的强势反 弹。 很多读者关心的是：在年底之前，楼市还有哪些利好出台，会不会有超级大招。 目前在外地出差，时间比较紧张，我直接给出预判： 在年底之前，应该没有专门针对楼市的超级大招了。在这方面，大家不能奢望了。 什么才能算得上超级大招？目前这个阶段，我能想到的只有两个： 一是官宣大幅减少卖地，甚至让一批人口停止增长的三四线城市停止卖地3到5年。 二是成立一个3万亿元起跳的房地产稳定基金，用来收储开发商手中闲置的土地、过剩的房屋。 原创 刘晓博 但去年10月8日上证指数是一根光头大阴线，3.48万亿是主力疯狂出逃制造出来的。最近成交额不断创 新高，是在指数持续上攻中走出来的。 在当前市场氛围下，4000点已经不是问题。越来越的增量资金进入市场，行情将持续一段时间。 股市好了，有了赚钱效应，悲观的预期就会降低。这其实就是楼市的大利好。 停止卖地，或者承诺未来几年大幅减少卖地，这个难度极大。虽然可以通过增发地方债来支撑一段时 间，但撑不了太久。 事实上，疫情之后很多中小城市卖地并没有明显减少，拿地 ...

Group 1: U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to resume interest rate cuts after an 8-month pause, with a potential 25 basis point reduction in September [1][4][16] - The U.S. unemployment rate has surpassed the 4% threshold, indicating a need for rate cuts despite inflation concerns [16] - President Trump is pushing for lower interest rates to stimulate the economy ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, which may influence the Fed's decisions [13][16] Group 2: Chinese Real Estate Market - The Chinese real estate market may receive positive news in September, potentially benefiting from a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1][5][20] - Recent government meetings have emphasized the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, indicating a proactive approach to address market concerns [18][19] - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are anticipated to follow Beijing's lead in implementing new policies to support the real estate market [21][22]

Group 1: Current Real Estate Market Conditions - The real estate market is gradually moving out of the "hard landing" risk, entering a longer and more moderate adjustment phase[6] - As of June 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities have experienced 25 consecutive months of negative growth, with 56 cities seeing price declines in June[6] - In the first half of 2025, sales area and sales revenue of commercial housing decreased by 42.4% and 49.1% respectively compared to the same period in 2021[6] Group 2: Economic Impact and Challenges - The contribution of the real estate sector to GDP has shifted from positive to negative, with its value-added share dropping from 8.3% in 2020 to 6.3% in 2024[7] - The real estate sector's drag on GDP growth has been increasingly evident, with a negative contribution of -0.12 percentage points in 2024[7] - The ongoing decline in housing prices is causing a reduction in consumer spending and increasing financial risks for real estate companies[9] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Establish a "Real Estate Stability Fund" at the central level with an initial scale of around 2 trillion yuan to support troubled projects and acquire idle land[14] - Increase fiscal support for local governments to mitigate the impact of declining land sales revenue and enhance their ability to stabilize the real estate market[14] - Implement measures to alleviate liquidity risks for real estate companies, including encouraging mergers and acquisitions among firms facing financial difficulties[15]

"一季度财政支出进度显著加快，积极财政政策发力为一季度经济'开门红'提供了有力支撑。"粤开证 券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉第一财经。 2025.04. 23 本文字数：2737，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 中国在今年首次实施更加积极的财政政策，意在通过扩大财政支出来提振内需促进消费，从而稳定经 济。这一政策效果正在显现。 财政部最新数据显示，今年一季度全国广义财政支出（一般公共预算支出和政府性基金支出）约9.3 万亿元，比去年同期增加近0.5万亿元，同比增长约5.6%。这一增速与一季度经济增速（5.4%）相 近。 面对关税战冲击，不少市场人士都期待财政政策发挥更大作用。其中除了靠前发力推动既定财政政策 尽快落地见效外，针对稳外贸、稳就业、稳楼市、促消费扩内需等推出财政增量政策，也受到市场高 度关注。 财政靠前发力 观察财政政策发力的一个关键指标，是财政支出强度。 根据财政部数据，今年一季度，全国一般公共预算支出72815亿元，同比增长4.2%。这一增速高于去 年同期及去年全年水平。 罗志恒表示，其中3月份的一般公共预算支出同比增长5.7%，较前两个月这一增速加快2.3个百分 点，支出进度显著加 ...