赵伟、屠强、贾东旭、侯倩楠 （赵伟系申万宏源证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 摘要 2025：信心"走出谷底"，趋势"渐行渐近"。 跌宕之中，国内经济环境至少实现了三层变化。三层变化意义重大：转折一，"疤痕效应"的快速退潮，体现为居民端以人流和部分商品价格的筑底改善、 企业端以应收账款增速的快速回落为表征；转折二，中美博弈在经贸领域的攻守易势，表现为关税冲突对国内经济的影响弱化等；表征三，新阶段"供给 侧改革"框架的逐步成型，针对性更强。 宏微观"温差"，再成热议话题，需客观认识。宏微观"温差"是2022年之后的"常态"，也是外部环境复杂多变下中国经济转型的特有过程。2018年之后，国 内企业"内卷式"行为持续加剧，进而导致经济"循环"阻滞，表现为企业盈利与经济增速脱钩，居民就业与收入持续承压，地方债务压力下挤占企业现金 流，三者互相影响。 破局之策已在系统性加快推进，理性认识、拥抱机遇。"反内卷"与清账、大力发展服务业、地方化债等，即破局经济"循环"阻滞问题的妙手所在。企业 端，切实加强"反内卷"力度、恢复企业盈利能力，同时加快账款清理、恢复经营活力；居民端，大力发展服务业，提高全社会就业吸纳能 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights three significant changes in the domestic economic environment: the rapid retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new phase of "supply-side reform" framework [2][8][21] - The "scar effect" is reflected in the improvement of consumer behavior and the rapid decline in accounts receivable growth among enterprises, indicating a recovery in economic confidence [15][16] - The article emphasizes the need for a rational understanding of the "macro-micro temperature difference," which has become a norm since 2022, affecting the economic transformation process in China [8][37] Group 2 - The year 2026 is positioned as a critical year for comprehensive reform and development, with an emphasis on accelerating reform processes to seize significant opportunities [3][67] - The article suggests that economic growth will require maintaining a basic growth rate and emphasizes the importance of advanced manufacturing and service industry development [3][74] - Key areas for investment opportunities include the construction of a unified market, reforms related to social welfare, and accelerating green transformation [3][83][84] Group 3 - The article predicts a non-typical economic recovery driven by internal demand policies, which will help improve consumer confidence and investment growth [4][5] - External demand remains resilient, with a shift in export structure towards high-value-added products, indicating a strong competitive advantage [5][21] - The overall economic recovery is expected to follow a "front low and back high" rhythm, supported by the retreat of the "scar effect" and ongoing internal demand policies [5][55]