01 最近，我注意到民航业出了两个新闻。 一个是2025年全国民航工作会议上，民航局披露了里程碑数据，截至2025年底，中国有五亿人坐过飞机，毫无争议地成为全球第一航空人口大国。 但硬币总有两面，如果简单换算，意味着在我们身边，还有近2/3中国人，也就是九亿人从来没有坐过飞机。 第二个新闻，同样来自这场会议，再次提出了将深入整治民航内卷式竞争，而核心就一条，机票不可低于成本价售卖。 这被很多敏锐的媒体解读为，机票又要整体进入涨价通道了。 事实上，从去年年初开始，民航整治内卷，甚至限价的新闻就一再成为坊间热议话题。比如，早在去年2月，就有多家媒体披露，有关部门要求航司不得 售卖低于200元机票，违规者将会接到警告。 但在刚刚过去的2025年，由于各大在线旅游平台为了争夺用户，持续自掏腰包做补贴，所以很多航线上，低于200元的机票并没有完全绝迹。 情况在今年开年似乎确实发生了一些变化，看见新闻后，我特意查了携程、同程这些OTA平台特价机票榜单。现在虽然是春节前的淡季，理论上是价格洼 地，但从北京、上海出发的200元以下不含税费机票，确实物理消失了。 北京飞大连这种不含燃油、税费的超短途航班，最低也要210元起，飞 ...

智通财经获悉，航空股早盘再度走高，截至发稿，东方航空(00670)涨3.98%，报4.96港元；中国国航 (00753)涨2.94%，报6.66港元；南方航空(01055)涨2.85%，报5.41港元。 本文源自：智通财经网 对于近期多家航司调整日本航线，大摩表示，尽管日本航线带来影响，但中国内地11月机场客流量仍健 康增长，北京首都国际机场、上海浦东及虹桥国际机场及广州白云国际机场客流量，按年增长轻微加速 至9%、11%及13%，相对10月增长8%、10%及12%；而11月非国内客流量增长约20%。相较四星期前， 上述三地对日本的航空运力下降10%至20%。总体而言，非国内航空运力保持基本稳定，对澳洲、东南 亚、香港和澳门的运力则有所增加。 消息面上，根据最新运营数据显示，国内三大航司11月淡季客座率表现亮眼，东方航空客座率达 87.37%，同比上升3.04个百分点；南方航空客座率为86.29%，同比上升1.36个百分点；中国国航空客座 率83.3%，同比提升4个百分点。中信证券指出，根据各航司三季报，淡季航司客座率处于85.3%~93.2% 高位，关注民航"反内卷"边际变量推动高客座率向票价弹性的传导。短 ...

消息面上，根据最新运营数据显示，国内三大航司11月淡季客座率表现亮眼，东方航空客座率达 87.37%，同比上升3.04个百分点；南方航空客座率为86.29%，同比上升1.36个百分点；中国国航空客座 率83.3%，同比提升4个百分点。中信证券指出，根据各航司三季报，淡季航司客座率处于85.3%~93.2% 高位，关注民航"反内卷"边际变量推动高客座率向票价弹性的传导。短期公商务需求持续恢复有望与汇 率温和升值共振，4Q25航司利润端亏损有望大幅收窄。 航空股早盘再度走高，截至发稿，东方航空(00670)涨3.98%，报4.96港元；中国国航（601111）(00753) 涨2.94%，报6.66港元；南方航空（600029）(01055)涨2.85%，报5.41港元。 对于近期多家航司调整日本航线，大摩表示，尽管日本航线带来影响，但中国内地11月机场客流量仍健 康增长，北京首都国际机场、上海浦东及虹桥国际机场及广州白云国际机场客流量，按年增长轻微加速 至9%、11%及13%，相对10月增长8%、10%及12%；而11月非国内客流量增长约20%。相较四星期前， 上述三地对日本的航空运力下降10%至20%。总体而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong aviation stocks have generally risen, with China National Aviation increasing by nearly 4%, China Eastern Airlines by 3.2%, and China Southern Airlines by 2%, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the aviation sector [1][2]. Industry Summary - According to a report from CITIC Securities, there is expected strong demand for air travel during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, which may lead to better-than-expected performance in terms of volume and pricing, signaling a positive outlook for the industry [1]. - The civil aviation sector is gradually implementing measures to reduce competition, which may include price stabilization, schedule control, and regulatory oversight on agency sales, potentially providing support for industry pricing [1]. - The low introduction of new aircraft and engine maintenance is expected to continue the trend of low growth in effective supply, with new orders having a limited impact on industry supply, suggesting that there is no need for excessive concern [1]. - The fourth quarter may see a turning point in industry volume and pricing performance, highlighting the importance of strategic positioning during the off-peak season [1].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a recovery in civil aviation public business demand since mid-September, with high passenger load factors translating into ticket price increases, and anticipates a 6.4% year-on-year growth in daily passenger volume during the National Day holiday in October [1][2] Group 1: Demand and Pricing - Public business demand has shown continuous improvement since mid-September, with high load factors reflecting demand recovery impacting ticket prices positively [2] - Data from the flight management platform indicates that the average pre-sale ticket price for domestic flights during the National Day holiday has increased by 7.9% year-on-year [2] - The expectation is that the improvement in public business demand will support sustained positive growth in overall ticket prices in Q4 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Regulation and Supply Constraints - The civil aviation industry is undergoing a "de-involution" initiative aimed at addressing excessive competition, with potential regulatory measures including price floor controls, flight schedule management, and stricter oversight of online travel agencies (OTAs) [3][4] - The industry is expected to maintain strict supply controls, with a focus on optimizing the structure of flight schedules based on profitability and competition levels [4] - The introduction of new aircraft is limited, with a net increase of only 60 aircraft among the three major airlines this year, reflecting a low growth trend in effective supply [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays are anticipated to see strong demand for air travel, with potential for better-than-expected performance in terms of volume and pricing [8] - The ongoing "de-involution" efforts are expected to provide support for industry pricing, enhancing the earnings elasticity of airlines [5][8] - The combination of low aircraft introduction rates and ongoing engine maintenance is likely to result in continued low growth in effective supply, with limited impact from new orders on overall supply dynamics [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is addressing the issue of "involution" in the aviation industry, where excessive low pricing and capacity deployment have led to low profitability despite market growth. The CAAC aims to regulate market pricing and monitor fare dynamics to prevent predatory pricing practices [3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Despite the CAAC's efforts, there has not been a significant increase in ticket prices, with average domestic economy class fares in July and August 2024 down by 6.4% year-on-year and 8.6% compared to 2019 [3]. - The CAAC is currently collecting data from airlines to assess cost structures on different routes, which will inform future pricing regulations and monitoring [4]. Group 2: Competitive Dynamics - Some airlines are engaging in "stealth" low pricing during off-peak times, leading to a competitive cycle where one airline's price drop prompts others to follow suit, resulting in significant variations in passenger load factors [5]. - The aviation industry faces more challenges in curbing "involution" compared to the express delivery sector, as there are 65 passenger airlines competing for domestic routes, leading to oversupply and competition from high-speed rail [6]. Group 3: Industry Structure and Strategy - There is a need to establish a mechanism for airlines to exit the market to alleviate price competition, as many airlines have been operating at a loss since the pandemic without going bankrupt, unlike their foreign counterparts [6]. - The value of existing airline licenses has increased due to the CAAC's moratorium on new airline approvals, making it difficult for underperforming airlines to exit the market [6]. - Airlines must shift from a growth strategy based on capacity and resource input to one that focuses on understanding diverse passenger needs and innovating their service offerings [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Self-Regulatory Agreement for Air Passenger Transport" by the China Air Transport Association, which aims to enhance safety, service quality, operational efficiency, and market regulation in the domestic aviation industry while ensuring fair competition and consumer rights [3]. Group 1: Key Provisions of the Agreement - The agreement emphasizes strict adherence to pricing laws and anti-unfair competition laws to eliminate malicious competition practices such as below-cost dumping and false advertising [5]. - It addresses the issue of "price wars" in domestic routes, where airlines engage in excessive low pricing to gain short-term profits, leading to a situation where the industry grows but profitability does not [6][7]. - The agreement mandates increased supervision of airline sales networks and agents to ensure compliance with published pricing and service conditions, prohibiting unauthorized sales practices [8]. Group 2: Industry Context and Reactions - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has initiated measures to combat "involution" in the aviation sector, which refers to excessive competition leading to unsustainable pricing strategies [9]. - Major airlines have begun to promote the "Civil Aviation Version of 12306," a direct sales platform that offers transparent pricing and aligns with airline rules, as part of the effort to counteract involution [11]. - Despite these efforts, the average economy class ticket price in the first half of 2025 remains lower than both the previous year and pre-pandemic levels, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [11].

Core Viewpoint - The "Self-Discipline Convention for Air Passenger Transport" aims to enhance safety, service quality, operational efficiency, and market regulation in the domestic aviation industry while ensuring fair competition and protecting the rights of consumers and operators [1][5]. Group 1: Pricing and Competition Regulations - The convention emphasizes strict adherence to pricing laws and anti-unfair competition laws to eliminate malicious competition practices such as below-cost dumping and false advertising [2][4]. - The issue of "below-cost dumping" is highlighted as a significant concern in the domestic aviation market, where price wars have led to a situation where revenue growth does not translate into profit [3][6]. Group 2: OTA and Sales Practices - Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) are identified as major platforms for ticket sales, but they often engage in practices like price markups and bundled sales, leading to discrepancies between actual prices paid by consumers and advertised prices [3][4]. - The convention mandates enhanced supervision of OTAs and ticket agents to ensure compliance with airline pricing, conditions of use, and refund policies, prohibiting unauthorized sales practices [4][5]. Group 3: Credit Evaluation and Compliance - A credit evaluation mechanism for OTA operators and ticket agents is to be established, along with a system for agent registration and public disclosure [5]. - The China Air Transport Association will regularly assess compliance with the convention, providing guidance and corrective measures for violations [5]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Directions - The introduction of the "Civil Aviation Version of 12306" aims to provide a transparent and direct sales platform for tickets, supported by regulatory authorities [6]. - Despite ongoing price declines in the industry, there is a call for airlines to address overcapacity and homogeneous competition to alleviate pricing pressures and meet diverse consumer needs [6].

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump signed an executive order establishing "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41% [2] - The U.S. has suspended the tax exemption policy for small packages, affecting many parcels from China, prompting a response from the Chinese Foreign Ministry urging fair competition [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated it will conduct regulatory reviews regarding the sale of ports by CK Hutchison Holdings to protect market competition [5] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3 in July, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for high-quality urban renewal and the integration of rural populations into urban areas [8] - The National Health Commission released a new treatment plan for Chikungunya fever, aiming to improve medical care standards [9] Group 3 - The National Medical Insurance Administration supports the clinical application and pricing of new technologies, including brain-machine interfaces [10] - Beijing reported 44 deaths and 9 missing persons due to severe flooding, highlighting the impact of extreme weather on urban infrastructure [11] - Beijing's government announced 15 measures to enhance the fertility support policy, including the establishment of a birth subsidy system [12] Group 4 - JD.com announced a voluntary public acquisition offer for CECONOMY at €4.6 per share, marking a significant investment in the European market [24] - Domestic airlines collectively supported the launch of the "Civil Aviation Official Direct Sales Platform," indicating a shift towards reducing competition pressures in the industry [23] - Institutional investors showed significant buying interest in Industrial Fulian, with a net purchase of approximately 1.5 billion yuan [26]