2025.08. 18 本文字数：1562，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈杨园 8月18日，"外卖大战 配送慢"登上微博热搜，不少用户在微博、小红书等平台吐槽外卖配送问题。"补贴大战"降温后，用户对外卖平台履约、服务能力的 敏感度正在上升。 记者查看小红书发现，近一周内，关于外卖配送慢的吐槽帖超90篇，京东、美团、淘宝闪购均有相关吐槽贴，外卖配送时间需一小时以上、订单超时、 无骑手接单等问题受到消费者关注。 在这背后，值得关注的是，随着反内卷、"价格战"降温，外卖大战正在驶入服务比拼的"深水区"。外卖高峰期的配送混乱在今年夏天并不少见，过去几个 月，第一财经多次报道了"0元购"等低价促销下奶茶店等爆单导致商家无法出餐、骑手取消订单、送不过来等现象，不过，彼时低价掩盖了不少用户对履 约的不满。 "本轮外卖平台的竞争焦点非常明确，主要围绕用户、商家和运力三个战场展开。"百联咨询创始人、零售电商行业专家表示，从行业整体来看，在用户 端，外卖竞争已从用户增长的"增量博弈"转变为挖掘现有用户价值的"存量博弈"，用户黏性与消费份额的提升是竞争关键；在商家端，竞争关键将从饱和 的线上实物商家转向海量线下本地生活 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tourism industry is experiencing a shift from growth to efficiency, where companies must enhance cost, structure, and scenario effectiveness to convert competitors' declines into their own gains [1] Duty-Free Industry - China Duty Free Group (中国中免) reported a net profit of 259,324.91 thousand yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decrease of 6.4% from 323,770.03 thousand yuan in the same period last year [7] - The decline is attributed to pressures on Hainan's offshore duty-free sales, outbound consumption diversion, and intensified market competition [7] - Despite challenges, China Duty Free's market share increased by nearly 1 percentage point year-on-year, and inventory turnover improved by 10% [7] Hotel Industry - Jin Jiang Hotels (锦江酒店) expects a net profit of 39,000 to 41,000 thousand yuan for the first half of 2025, showing slight growth from 38,851.52 thousand yuan year-on-year [10] - The growth is driven by a light-asset operation model that effectively reduced cost pressures, despite the absence of similar revenue items as in the previous year [10] - In contrast, Nanjing Tourism (南京商旅) anticipates a net profit of 550 to 850 thousand yuan, a notable decline from 1,028.37 thousand yuan, primarily due to underperformance in its tourism service segments [10] Airline Industry - Major state-owned airlines, including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China, are projected to incur losses ranging from 175,400 thousand to 240,000 thousand yuan, 160,000 thousand to 210,000 thousand yuan, and 180,000 thousand to 240,000 thousand yuan respectively, although losses are narrowing compared to the previous year [11] - The losses are attributed to imbalances in market supply, a downward shift in customer demographics, competition from high-speed rail, and uncertainties in the international environment [11] - Conversely, Huaxia Airlines (华夏航空) expects a profit of 20,000 to 28,000 thousand yuan, a significant increase from 1,255.50 thousand yuan, benefiting from improved demand in civil aviation and optimized route structures [11] Regional Tourism - Qinhuai Scenic Area (秦淮风光) reported a net profit of 4,299.41 thousand yuan, down from 5,037.84 thousand yuan, due to decreased consumer spending and visitor numbers [14] - Daming Cruises (大美游轮) achieved a net profit of 2,454.81 thousand yuan, slightly down from 2,850.74 thousand yuan, with operational metrics showing stable performance despite minor declines in average ticket prices and hotel occupancy rates [15] - Tengxuan Tourism (腾轩旅游) reported a loss of 523.59 thousand yuan, nearly unchanged from the previous year's loss, impacted by reduced income from air freight and domestic ticket commissions [15] Hong Kong Tourism - Hong Kong China Travel Service (香港中旅) reported a loss of 0.70 billion HKD, a reversal from a profit of 0.63 billion HKD, primarily due to investment property impairments [16] - Despite a 12% increase in total visitors to Hong Kong, the company faces challenges from reduced group tours and rising operational costs [16] Cultural and Sports Equipment - Dafen Industrial (大丰实业) expects a net profit of 6,423 to 7,252 thousand yuan, a significant increase from 4,144.08 thousand yuan, driven by strong demand for technology solutions in cultural and tourism sectors [17]

Core Insights - The article discusses the growing trend of "patient capital" and "bold capital" in the context of new productive forces investment, highlighting the role of state-owned investment funds as key players in this landscape [2] - It emphasizes the importance of revitalizing existing capital and optimizing resource allocation to support emerging industries and quality projects [2][4] - The speech by Jiang Mingming, Chairman of Shengshi Investment, addresses the challenges faced by the private equity industry, particularly the reliance on IPOs for exits and the low DPI (Distributions to Paid-In) rates [3][5] Investment Trends - The investment landscape is shifting, with various financial leaders discussing industry trends at the "2025 China Sci-Tech Summer Investment Summit" [2] - The private equity sector is experiencing a significant amount of stagnant capital, approximately 14 trillion yuan, which poses challenges for exits [6][7] - The S Fund is identified as a crucial tool for revitalizing quality assets and facilitating exits for both state-owned and private LPs [3][6][8] Economic Context - The Chinese economy is undergoing a dual economic structure, leading to a stock game that reflects the dynamics between foreign, state, and private capital [4] - The era of significant economic growth is perceived to be waning, necessitating a reevaluation of fund structures and investment strategies to adapt to the current economic cycle [5][10] S Fund Strategy - The S Fund is categorized into two types: transaction-oriented S Funds focused on financial returns and function-oriented S Funds initiated by local state-owned assets to promote local capital circulation [8][9] - Shengshi Investment has a long history of engaging with S Funds, having established a solid foundation through extensive investment in sub-funds and projects over the past 15 years [9][10] - The current strategy involves selecting high-quality assets accumulated over the past 15 years and forming asset packages to ensure continued investment and development [9][10] Conclusion - The article concludes with a reflection on the evolution of Shengshi Investment and its commitment to addressing the challenges faced by both private and state-owned LPs in the current economic environment [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The ride-hailing industry is experiencing intense price competition, leading to regulatory scrutiny and calls for better market practices to protect drivers' rights and ensure fair pricing [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - Multiple cities, including Qingyuan, Yingtan, and Ningbo, have held meetings to address low-price competition among ride-hailing platforms, indicating a growing concern over market practices [1][4]. - The Qingyuan Transportation Bureau has specifically called out platforms like Didi and Huaxiaozhu for receiving numerous complaints from drivers regarding low order prices and high commission rates [2][3]. - Regulatory bodies are urging platforms to establish reasonable pricing systems and to stop using unfair pricing tactics to gain market share [3][4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - As of May 31, 2025, there are 385 licensed ride-hailing platforms in China, with a 5.9% increase in order volume to 7.70 billion orders [5]. - The ride-hailing market is facing oversupply issues, with platforms resorting to low-price strategies during off-peak times, which has led to a decline in operational levels [5][6]. - The average hourly income for ride-hailing drivers has dropped by approximately 12.9%, from 31 yuan to around 27 yuan, reflecting the impact of increased competition [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The industry is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to one of market saturation, with warnings issued about oversupply and the need for drivers to be cautious about entering the market [6][7]. - Companies are exploring new growth avenues, including autonomous vehicles and international market expansion, despite many still operating at a loss [7]. - Analysts suggest that the reliance on low-price competition is unsustainable, and the market may evolve towards oligopoly, service differentiation, and intelligent capacity management [7].

Core Insights - The commercial vehicle market in China is navigating through policy-driven changes and energy transitions, with a focus on balancing "stock competition" and "incremental expansion" to achieve "high-end survival" [1] - In the first half of 2025, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 539,160 units, marking a 6.9% increase year-on-year, with China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation (CNHTC) leading the market with a 27.6% share [1][2] - CNHTC's sales in June reached 24,625 units, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 29.6%, achieving five consecutive months of growth [1][2] Market Performance - The heavy truck segment is experiencing a rapid transformation, driven by the scrapping and replacement of old operational vehicles in Shandong Province and the increasing penetration of new energy commercial vehicles [2] - The market is focusing on addressing pain points in logistics efficiency and urban distribution scenarios, with CNHTC's growth attributed to its strategic alignment with policy benefits and market needs [2] Product Development - CNHTC has launched multiple benchmark products in the first half of 2025, enhancing its full-spectrum product matrix to meet diverse operational scenarios [3] - The new HOWO TS7 dump truck and the Shandeka G7H gas tractor are highlighted for their superior performance and energy efficiency, catering to high-intensity operational environments [3] Brand and Market Positioning - CNHTC is actively showcasing its brand strength and technological capabilities at major international events, enhancing its visibility and reputation in the global market [9][11] - The company has successfully delivered 154 high-performance engineering vehicles to the Philippines, underscoring its growing influence and recognition in overseas markets [13] Customer Service and Community Engagement - CNHTC emphasizes a "family-like" service approach, providing comprehensive support and emergency services during natural disasters, thereby enhancing its brand loyalty and customer satisfaction [15][17] - The "Family Home" service system aims to improve the quality of life for truck drivers, offering various free amenities to create a supportive industry ecosystem [17] Strategic Outlook - CNHTC's leadership in heavy truck sales reflects a broader industry shift from "scale competition" to "value competition," driven by policies for old vehicle replacement and the acceleration of new energy transitions [19]

Core Insights - The home decoration industry is transitioning from a growth phase to a focus on existing stock, with smaller brands struggling while leading companies find new opportunities amidst the crisis [1][4][19] - Dayang has been recognized as the "No. 1 Brand in China's Home Decoration Pipeline" by Frost & Sullivan, leading in sales, volume, number of serviced households, and marketing outlets by 2024 [1][2] Industry Trends - The real estate sector is facing a downturn, with residential investment in 2024 down by 10.5% and new housing starts decreasing by 23% compared to the previous year [5] - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions has reached a historical high of 42%, indicating a shift in market dynamics towards renovation of existing homes [5] - The demand for renovation in older residential areas is significant, with over 17,000 old communities built before 2000, affecting over 420 million residents and presenting a substantial renovation opportunity [5][6] Company Strategy - Dayang emphasizes quality and service, addressing critical issues such as pipeline leakage and water quality contamination, which are major pain points in home renovations [6][7] - The company has adopted a long-term perspective, focusing on product quality and compliance, which has allowed it to maintain steady revenue growth even in a shrinking market [19][20] - Dayang's commitment to quality is reflected in its rigorous standards for materials and services, ensuring that installation is just the beginning of customer service [9][19] Global Expansion - Dayang has established a strong international presence, with operations in over 100 countries and regions, and has obtained 144 international certifications by 2025 [23] - The company's approach to globalization and localization aims to meet diverse market demands and enhance customer satisfaction [23]

Core Insights - Chongqing Beer has been recognized as the only liquor brand from Chongqing in the first batch of "Chinese Consumer Famous Brands" selected by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in April this year [2] - Despite a 30% decline in beer production over the past decade and a mere 32% consumption share among Generation Z, Chongqing Beer managed to achieve a 1.93% increase in sales in Q1 2025, positioning itself among China's top five beer companies [2][5] - The company has a rich history, being one of the first beer manufacturers in New China, and has successfully launched high-end products like Chongqing Pure Draft since 2002 [3] Industry Context - The Chinese beer industry has entered a painful transformation phase, with a 30.1% decline in production from its peak in 2013 and a 5.7% decrease in industry revenue in 2024, making it the only declining category in the food and beverage sector [5] - The industry is now in a "stock game" phase, focusing on brand competition rather than volume expansion, prompting Chongqing Beer to target younger consumers while maintaining its brand heritage [5] Marketing Strategies - Chongqing Beer has engaged in innovative marketing strategies to resonate with younger audiences, such as hosting a symphonic concert that attracted nearly 2.9 million online viewers, blending classical and local music [6] - The company organized a dragon boat race event that incorporated interactive elements and social media engagement to appeal to younger demographics, successfully revitalizing traditional activities [7] - A vertical marathon event at the deepest subway station in the country was branded as "Chongqing Pure Draft Ascend Race," connecting with young people's aspirations and urban experiences [8][9] Brand Representation - The brand's approach to endorsements has evolved, recently featuring Hong Kong star Chen Xiaochun as a spokesperson, aligning with the brand's image of camaraderie and resonating with local culture [9] - The inclusion of diverse brand ambassadors, such as Sichuan singer Jike Junyi, aims to reach various regional preferences and interest groups [9]

Group 1 - The core incremental capital in the A-share market this year is quantitative funds, with the micro-index significantly outperforming broad-based indices, achieving a cumulative increase of 31.9% as of June 20, 2025 [1][2] - Quantitative private equity funds have shown remarkable performance, with an average return of 29.6% from June 2024 to May 2025, significantly outperforming the top private equity funds' overall return of 1.1% [1][2] - As of May 2025, the total number of registered quantitative private equity products reached 1,930, accounting for 44.3% of all private equity securities products, indicating the growing importance of quantitative strategies in the private equity sector [2] Group 2 - The A-share market has experienced two distinct rounds of upward trends in 2025, each characterized by different styles and incremental capital structures [3] - The first round, termed "spring excitement," was dominated by active funds, with small-cap growth styles outperforming due to a favorable market environment and increased participation from retail investors [3] - The second round, following a "golden pit," saw a shift towards a more balanced style, with significant contributions from state-owned funds and a notable inflow of ETF funds, particularly into the CSI 300 ETF [3] Group 3 - The rise of new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals is driven by incremental southbound capital, reflecting a mapping logic from Hong Kong stocks to A-shares [4] - Since the beginning of the year, southbound funds have significantly increased their holdings in the new consumption sector, with a cumulative net inflow of 25.2 billion Hong Kong dollars as of June 19, 2025 [4] - In the innovative pharmaceutical sector, southbound funds have also shown substantial interest, with a net inflow exceeding 60 billion Hong Kong dollars, becoming a core driving force for the sector's performance [4] Group 4 - Recent market conditions indicate a lack of main themes, with overall sentiment among institutions and active funds remaining low since April 2025 [6] - The scarcity of incremental capital has led to a predominance of quantitative funds in the market, which tend to dominate pricing power in low liquidity environments [6] - The current market dynamics suggest that quantitative funds will continue to play a leading role, although there are signs of potential short-term corrections in micro-cap stocks [6] Group 5 - The report suggests that in the current "fan-like" rotation market, focusing on high-cut low rhythms is key to achieving excess returns [7] - Future allocations should consider sectors with clear performance expectations and advantageous positions, particularly in the broader technology sector, including AI computing power, controlled nuclear fusion, military industry, commercial aerospace, solid-state batteries, and deep-sea technology [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Overseas data shows the cooling of the US economy, but it's not enough to change the Fed's stance. The Middle - East geopolitical instability has raised market risk - aversion. Domestic A - shares are in a state of stock game, with expectations of index repair and attention to policies from the Lujiazui Financial Forum and foreign capital inflows [1][2][11] Summary by Directory 1.行情观点 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US May retail sales monthly rate was - 0.9%, lower than expected and the previous value, the largest decline since March 2023, mainly due to the drop in car purchases. The May industrial output monthly rate was - 0.2%, also lower than expected and the previous value. The Fed is more concerned about labor - market data and is delaying interest - rate cuts due to internal contradictions. Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US bond yields increased, gold slightly rose, crude oil rose, US stock indexes fell, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped, with the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciating. Middle - East geopolitical fluctuations increased market risk - aversion [1][4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.12%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.36%. The market showed a volatile correction. Although the index decline was limited, individual - stock declines widened. The market was mainly affected by news and in a state of stock game with sector rotation. Coal, public utilities, etc. rose, while pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, etc. fell. The Lujiazui Forum is being held, and policy news is to be focused on [2][5] 1.3 Important News - The US Senate passed a stablecoin bill. Trump mentioned upcoming drug tariffs. 95% of central banks expect gold reserves to rise in the next 12 months. The "Fed whisperer" said the Fed would have been ready to cut interest rates this week without tariff risks. There are ongoing developments in the Israel - Iran conflict, and China announced evacuating citizens from Iran and Israel. China's new - generation manned spacecraft had a successful test [6][7][9] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Pay attention to whether the US will directly attack Iran and the intensification of great - power games. Domestic A - shares are in a stock game. With the expectation of policies from the Lujiazui Financial Forum, the index is expected to repair. Focus on policy news' impact on index trading volume and foreign capital inflows when gold prices are high [11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The document presents the performance, trading volume, and positions of futures contracts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes, including data such as closing prices, settlement prices, trading volume changes, and position changes [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - It shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volume, and valuation of major stock indexes and sectors. Market - style contributions to the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes are also presented, along with charts on market trading volume, turnover rate, and other indicators [36][37][38] 4. Liquidity Tracking - Charts on central - bank open - market operations and Shibor interest - rate levels are provided [53]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a continuous upward trend for three days after the holiday, with today's trading volume reaching 1.3 trillion, indicating the entry of new funds despite being lower than the previous average of 1.5 trillion [1][3] - The market is characterized by a "stock game," where profit-taking occurs among winning stocks, particularly in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumer goods, which have seen adjustments [1][3] Trading Volume and Fund Flow - The average trading volume over the past three days was below 1.2 trillion, but the increase to 1.3 trillion today suggests an influx of approximately 100 billion in new funds [3] - Despite the increase in trading volume, the new funds have not absorbed the profit-taking pressure, particularly in the consumer sector, leading to a rebound in oversold sectors like securities and technology [3][5] Market Sentiment and Strategy - The current market sentiment indicates a lack of strong buying power, with today's buying power recorded at 950, which is below the threshold of 1000 needed for a robust rally [5] - There is a significant selling pressure observed, suggesting that if new funds do not continue to flow in, the market could easily shift to a bearish trend [5] Sector Performance - The market has seen a rotation in sector performance, with sectors like blockchain and ST stocks showing strength, while traditional leaders like pharmaceuticals have weakened [7][8] - The analysis indicates that the market may experience further rotation among sectors, and the ability to predict the next leading sector is crucial for investors [7] Key Data Points - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up was 107 today, with 100 being real limit ups, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [6] - The buying power and selling power metrics show a disparity, with buying power at 950 and selling power at 136, reflecting a cautious market environment [6]