证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 01 月 07 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数收涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.05%，收报 4085.77点；深证成指涨0.06%，报14030.56点；科创50涨0.99%，收报1443.39 点；创业板指涨 0.31%，收报 3329.69 点。总体上，全天个股涨少跌多，Wind 数据显示，全市场 2164 只个股上涨，3188 只个股下跌，107 只个股收平。沪 深两市今日成交额合计 28541 亿元，较上个交易日放量 476 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，综合、煤炭、电子、通信等行 业涨幅靠前，涨幅分别为 3.86%、2.47%、1.25%、1.24%，石油石化、非银金 融、美容护理、计算机、银行等行业跌幅靠前，跌幅分别为 1.73%、1.13%、 1.03 %、0.81%、0.72%。 概念板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为半导体设备、光刻机、中芯国 际产业链、半导体材料、工业气体、稀土、半导体硅片、CR ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a general decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.55% closing at 3867.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.10% at 13112.09 points, the ChiNext Index down by 1.77% at 3137.8 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index down by 2.22% at 1318.91 points [1] - Overall, there were 2312 stocks that rose and 2965 stocks that fell, with a total market turnover of 17734 billion yuan, a decrease of 3188 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, non-bank financials, retail, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, steel, and building materials showed positive performance with increases of 1.59%, 1.49%, 1.24%, 0.91%, and 0.91% respectively [1] - Conversely, sectors such as electronics, telecommunications, media, machinery, and computers experienced declines, with decreases of 2.42%, 1.89%, 1.63%, 1.36%, and 1.27% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors today included dairy, selected insurance, chemical fiber selection, three-child policy, large aircraft, fiberglass, SPD, liquor, initial public offering economy, photovoltaic glass, gold and jewelry, cross-strait integration, satellite internet, chemical raw materials selection, and aquaculture [2] - In contrast, sectors such as optical modules (CPO), GPU, optical communication, cultivated diamonds, ASIC chips, optical chips, and Moore threads experienced pullbacks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a broad adjustment, with major indices declining, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and volatility [1][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.7% to 3873.32 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.41% [1]. - A total of 752 stocks rose, 4374 stocks fell, and 45 stocks remained unchanged across the two markets [3]. - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.86 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 786.06 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3]. - There was a net outflow of 857.75 billion yuan in major funds [3]. Sector Performance - Wind power equipment saw a net inflow of 12.99 billion yuan, leading the sectors, followed by electric grid equipment, medical services, packaging materials, and communication services [3]. - In terms of thematic performance, space computing rose by 2.43%, and controlled nuclear fusion increased by 1.88%, with four stocks hitting the daily limit [3]. Market Outlook - Analyst Xu Xiaoming noted that the market's decline on Thursday was the largest single-day drop since the recent rebound began, but the overall drop was not significant [3]. - The market is expected to break out of its current trading range soon, which may lead to increased volatility [3]. - Xu emphasized that the current adjustments are part of an upward trend and should not be viewed as a downturn, suggesting that these adjustments could facilitate a more stable and balanced market in the future [4].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.15% closing at 3864.18 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.02% to 12907.83 points. The ChiNext Index rose by 2.14% to 3044.69 points, and the STAR 50 Index gained 0.99% to close at 1315.04 points. Overall, there were 1689 stocks that rose, while 3591 stocks fell, with 168 stocks remaining unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 17833 billion, a decrease of 288 billion from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the sectors that performed well included telecommunications, comprehensive, electronics, and retail, with gains of 4.64%, 1.79%, 1.58%, and 1.11% respectively. Conversely, the sectors that lagged included defense and military, social services, media, and petroleum and petrochemicals, with declines of 2.25%, 0.97%, 0.82%, and 0.80% respectively [1][2]. Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors today included optical modules (CPO), optical communications, optical chips, SPD, cultivated diamonds, smart speakers, consumer electronics OEM, excavators, third-generation semiconductors, servers, GPUs, and MCU chips. In contrast, sectors such as the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation system, aquatic products, aircraft carriers, the top ten military industrial groups, military information technology, military-civilian integration, large aircraft, and commercial aerospace experienced a pullback [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline in the past week (November 17-21), with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3834.89 points, down 3.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 12538.07 points, down 5.13%, and the ChiNext Index at 2920.08 points, down 6.15% [1] - Only 9.5% of stocks rose during the week, with 57 stocks increasing over 15% and 259 stocks decreasing over 15%. No sectors recorded gains, with the power equipment, comprehensive, and basic chemicals sectors leading the decline [1] Top Performing Stocks - Jianglong Shipbuilding (300589.SZ) topped the weekly gainers with a 64.97% increase, followed by Rongji Software (002474.SZ) and Zhongshui Fishery (000798.SZ) with gains of 61.06% and 61.05% respectively. Several stocks related to military, aquaculture, or AI applications also saw significant increases [3][4] - Jianglong Shipbuilding specializes in the design, development, production, and sales of various types of vessels, including law enforcement and special operation boats, and has a total market capitalization of approximately 8.5 billion yuan [3][5] Business Performance - Jianglong Shipbuilding reported a 59.03% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 509 million yuan, and a net loss of 36.86 million yuan, a 252.17% decrease year-on-year. The company also reported a basic earnings per share of -0.10 yuan [5] - The company secured new orders worth 507 million yuan, a 9.03% increase year-on-year, with a backlog of orders amounting to 1.491 billion yuan, up 2.47% year-on-year [5] Military and Aquaculture Business - Jianglong Shipbuilding's law enforcement vessel business accounted for 56.43% of its operations, with multiple product orders in Fujian Province, including law enforcement vessels for various agencies [7] - The company has established a long-term strategic partnership with Moen Marine, a leading supplier in the global aquaculture industry, and has renewed contracts for the construction of 12 aquaculture workboats [7] Underperforming Stocks - Huasheng Lithium Battery (688353.SH) was the worst performer of the week, with a decline of 33.19%. Other stocks like Shanshui Bide (300844.SZ) and Zhongneng Electric (300062.SZ) also saw significant drops [10][11] - Huasheng Lithium Battery specializes in lithium battery electrolyte additives and had previously reached a historical high before experiencing a sharp decline [11][12] Industry Trends - The electrolyte additive market is experiencing a recovery, with prices for key products like vinylene carbonate (VC) and fluorinated ethylene carbonate (FEC) rising due to increased demand from energy storage and power batteries [12] - Despite the positive market trends, Huasheng Lithium Battery faces uncertainties regarding its performance, with a reported net loss of 102.97 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [12]

Content: --------- <doc id='1'>金融工程日报 A 股单边下行，AI 应用逆势走强、锂电池产业链全线下挫</doc> <doc id='2'>核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20251121 市场全线下跌，规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板 块指数中上证综指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。行业 指数全线下跌，家电、传媒、食品饮料、银行、农林牧渔行业表现较好，综 合、有色金属、基础化工、通信、电子行业表现较差。中船系、水产、小红 书平台、拼多多合作商、短剧游戏等概念表现较好，锂矿、锂电正极、锂电 隔膜、盐湖提锂、锂电电解液等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20251121 收盘时有 33 只股票涨停，有 107 只股票跌停。昨日涨 停股票今日表现低迷，赚钱效应较弱，高开低走，收盘收益为-0.55%，昨日 跌停股票今日收盘收益为-5.58%。今日封板率 61%，较前日提升 10%，连板 率 24%，较前日下降 0%。 市场资金流向：截至 20251120 两融余额为 24917 亿元，其中融资余额 24744 亿元，融券余额 173 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 10.1%。</doc> <doc id='3'>折溢价：20251120 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是创科技 ETF，ETF 折价较多的是芯 片 ETF 景顺。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 20 亿元，20251120 当 日大宗交易成交金额为 19 亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 6.36%，当日折价率 为 7.71%。近一年以来上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 股指期货主 力合约的年化贴水率中位数分别为 0.48%、3.39%、10.86%、13.39%，当日上 证 50 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 4.00%，处于近一年来 29%分位点，当 日沪深 300 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 7.08%，处于近一年来 25%分位 点；当日中证 500 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 8.69%，处于近一年来 69% 分位点；当日中证 1000 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 8.76%，处于近一年 来 80%分位点。</doc> <doc id='4'>机构关注与龙虎榜：近一周内调研机构较多的股票是九号公司-WD、蓝思科 技、泰恩康、中航重机、沃尔德、超颖电子、宏昌科技、斯菱股份等，九号 公司-WD 被 179 家机构调研。20251121 披露龙虎榜数据中，机构专用席位净 流入前十的股票是天华新能、易点天下、安妮股份、久其软件、榕基软件、 古麒绒材、江龙船艇、荃银高科、华瓷股份、神农种业等，机构专用席位净 流出前十的股票是西藏城投、视觉中国、浪潮软件、德力佳、禾信仪器、中 水渔业、梦天家居、亚通精工、南侨食品、北方长龙等。陆股通净流入前十 的股票是天华新能、江龙船艇、英利汽车、国风新材、久其软件、久之洋、 荃银高科、西藏城投、南侨食品等，陆股通净流出前十的股票是华胜天成、 视觉中国、方大炭素、诺德股份、浪潮软件、易点天下、禾信仪器等。 风险提示：市场环境变动风险；本报告基于历史客观数据统计，不构成投资 建议。</doc> <doc id='5'> | 金融工程·数量化投资 | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师：张欣慰 | 联系人：李子靖 | | 021-60933159 | 021-60875177 | 021-60933159 021-60875177 zhangxinwei1@guosen.com.cn lizijing1@guosen.com.cn S0980520060001 相关研究报告 《金融工程日报-A 股高开低走，封板率创近一个月新低》 —— 2025-11-20 《金融工程日报-沪指震荡收红，水产股集体大涨、黄金股午后 拉升》 ——2025-11-19 《金融工程日报-沪指震荡走低，锂电产业链回调、互联网电商 概念逆势走强》 ——2025-11-18 《金融工程日报-沪指震荡下跌，锂矿题材逆势爆发》 —— 2025-11-17 《金融工程日报-沪指冲高回落，算力、半导体产业链领跌》 — —2025-11-14</doc> <doc id='6'>市场表现 宽基与风格指数表现 今日(20251121，下同) 市场全线下跌，规模指数中，上证 50 指数表现较好，上 证 50 指数下跌 1.74%，沪深 300 指数下跌 2.44%，中证 500 指数下跌 3.46%，中 证 1000 指数下跌 3.72%，中证 2000 指数下跌 3.99%。 板块指数中，上证综指表现较好，上证综指下跌 2.45%，深证综指下跌 3.43%，中 小 100 指数下跌 3.25%，创业板指下跌 4.02%，科创 50 指数下跌 3.19%，科创 100 指数下跌 4.04%，北证 50 指数下跌 4.71%。 风格指数中，沪深 300 价值指数表现较好，沪深 300 价值指数下跌 1.70%，沪深 300 成长指数下跌 2.47%，中证 500 价值指数下跌 3.30%，中证 500 成长指数下跌 3.16%。主要宽基、板块及风格指数今日表现如下图所示。</doc> <doc id='7'>图1：今日宽基、板块与风格指数表现 行业指数表现 今日行业指数全线下跌，家电、传媒、食品饮料、银行、农林牧渔行业表现较好， 收益分别为-0.27%、-0.50%、-0.89%、-1.00%、-1.58%，综合、有色金属、基础 化工、通信、电子行业表现较差，收益分别为-5.41%、-5.30%、-5.26%、-4.59%、 -4.41%，中信一级行业指数今日表现如下图所示。</doc> <doc id='8'>资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理</doc> <doc id='9'>图2：今日中信一级行业指数表现 概念主题表现 今日中船系、水产、小红书平台、拼多多合作商、短剧游戏等概念表现较好，收 益分别为 3.51%、0.65%、0.47%、0.42%、0.22%，锂矿、锂电正极、锂电隔膜、 盐湖提锂、锂电电解液等概念表现较差，收益分别为-9.67%、-8.66%、-8.18%、 -8.08%、-7.99%，今日收益较高与较低的前十个概念指数表现如下图所示。</doc> <doc id='10'>资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理</doc> <doc id='11'>图3：今日收益较高与较低的前十个概念指数 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理</doc> <doc id='12'>市场情绪 日内涨跌停家数 我们统计上市满 3 个月以上的股票在今日盘中的实时涨跌停家数情况。今日盘中 最高有 33 只股票

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a broad decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3850 points, while market volume saw a slight increase [2][5] - The performance of various sectors showed that home appliance manufacturing, media and internet, food and beverage, and banking sectors performed relatively well, while metal materials and mining, power and new energy equipment, and electronics sectors led the decline [2][5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.41%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 4.02%, the SSE 50 Index declined by 1.74%, the CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.44%, the STAR 50 Index fell by 3.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index dropped by 3.72%, with a total market turnover of approximately 1.98 trillion yuan [2][8] Sector Analysis - The leading sectors included home appliance manufacturing, media and internet, food and beverage, and banking, while the lagging sectors were metal materials and mining (-5.11%), power and new energy equipment (-4.78%), and electronics (-4.66%) [8] - Concept stocks such as China Shipbuilding System (+3.51%), aquatic products (+0.65%), Xiaohongshu platform (+0.47%), and Pinduoduo partners (+0.42%) showed gains, while lithium mining and related concepts faced declines [8] Market Drivers - Key market drivers included the unexpected rise in U.S. unemployment rates despite job growth, leading to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [8] - Concerns about high asset prices and AI bubble risks contributed to a decline in U.S. stocks, which in turn affected market sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region [8] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - The report suggests a short-term market correction may occur due to rapid price increases, but the long-term outlook remains positive with expectations of a "slow bull" market trend [14] - In the medium term, the market's strength may depend on macroeconomic policies and technological advancements, particularly in AI and robotics, which are seen as key areas for creating new demand [15] - Long-term fundamentals, including stabilization in the real estate market and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, are expected to support continued growth in the A-share market [15]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.45% to close at 3834.89 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 3.41% to 12538.07 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 4.02% to 2920.08 points. Overall, 351 stocks rose while 5071 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 17082 billion yuan, an increase of 2575 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][12]. Industry Performance - Most of the Shenwan first-level industries saw declines today. The media, home appliances, and food and beverage sectors experienced relatively smaller declines of 0.32%, 0.40%, and 0.88% respectively. In contrast, industries such as comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, basic chemicals, electronics, communications, steel, and environmental protection faced larger declines, with drops of 5.50%, 5.26%, 5.17%, 4.70%, 4.58%, 4.51%, 4.40%, and 4.00% respectively [1][12]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that saw the largest gains today included the China Shipbuilding System, aquatic products, Xiaohongshu platform, Pinduoduo partners, short drama games, virtual humans, and Kimi. Conversely, sectors such as lithium mining, lithium battery anodes, and lithium extraction from salt lakes experienced corrections [2][11].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.40% to close at 3931.05 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.76% at 12980.82 points, the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index decreasing by 1.24% to 1328.19 points, and the ChiNext Index dropping by 1.12% to 3042.34 points [1][10] - Overall, there were 1452 stocks that rose while 3846 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 17082 billion yuan, a decrease of 177 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the sectors that saw gains included building materials (up 1.40%), comprehensive (up 0.87%), banking (up 0.86%), telecommunications (up 0.51%), and real estate (up 0.33%) [1][10] - Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines included beauty and personal care (down 2.39%), coal (down 2.10%), electric equipment (down 1.96%), oil and petrochemicals (down 1.52%), commercial retail (down 1.42%), and basic chemicals (down 1.22%) [1][10] Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that performed well today included Moore Threads, central enterprise banks, fiberglass, lithium mines, lithium extraction from salt lakes, selected real estate, Hainan Free Trade Port, consumer electronics OEM, rare earths, selected rare metals, selected cement manufacturing, selected banks, optical modules (CPO), and circuit boards [2]

- No quantitative models or factors were mentioned in the provided content