崔东树：全国乘用车行业2026年1月末库存357万辆、库存70天 赛力斯公布晕车识别专利 天眼查知识产权信息显示，近日，赛力斯汽车有限公司申请的"一种晕车识别方法、装置、存储介质及 设备"专利公布。摘要显示，本申请的方法中，利用多源信号样本训练用于预测驾乘人员的晕车状态的 教师模型，通过知识蒸馏技术，基于训练好的教师模型提供的软标签和IMU信号样本训练学生模型，将 训练好的学生模型确定为晕车识别模型。 2月25日，乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文表示，2026年1月月末全国乘用车行业库存357万辆，较上月下降8 万辆，较2025年1月增58万辆，形成库存高位运行特征。2026年1月底的库存与未来销量综合预估的现有 库存支撑未来销售天数在70天，相对于2023年1月的65天、2024年1月的70天，2025年1月的48天，今年1 月的总体库存压力相对较大。从仅生产新能源车企业的库存变化特征分析看，随着反内卷的推动，行业 库存9月降到62万辆，2026年1月行业库存上升到72万辆，较峰值库存降16万辆，但较12月增加6万辆。 近期新能源经销商的厂家和渠道库存面临市场低于预期，行业库存总体压力较大。 河南发布2026年汽车 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Chinese automotive market is expected to maintain stable retail volumes in 2025, with a projected total of 23.55 million passenger vehicles sold, which is roughly the same as in 2024 [1][2] - The automotive dealer inventory warning index for December 2025 is reported at 57.7%, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 2.1 percentage points, indicating a decline in industry prosperity [1] - A significant portion of dealers, nearly half, are expected to achieve a task completion rate of 90% or more for the entire year of 2025, with 15.3% exceeding their targets [1] Group 2 - The automotive consumption index for December 2025 is reported at 97.7, which is higher than the previous month, suggesting a potential "opening red" scenario for January 2026 due to pent-up demand from the end of year promotions and the upcoming Spring Festival [2] - The introduction of the new vehicle purchase tax policy, which reduces the tax from exemption to half starting in 2026, is expected to have a positive impact on December sales, although consumer hesitation remains due to policy changes [2][3] - The 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy guidelines are expected to alleviate consumer hesitation and stimulate demand in early 2026, with a concentrated release of purchasing demand anticipated in January [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - From November 1 to 23, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.384 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11% compared to the same period last year, and a 2% decrease compared to the previous month. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year reached 20.64 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6% [2][6] - During the same period, wholesale sales of passenger cars by manufacturers totaled 1.69 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8% but an 8% increase compared to the previous month. Year-to-date wholesale sales reached 25.464 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11% [2][10] Group 2: New Energy Vehicles - Retail sales of new energy vehicles from November 1 to 23 reached 849,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3% and an 8% increase compared to the previous month. Year-to-date retail sales reached 10.998 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20% [2][6] - Wholesale sales of new energy vehicles during the same period totaled 995,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4% and a 13% increase compared to the previous month. Year-to-date wholesale sales reached 13.051 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27% [2][10] Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The retail performance in early November was weak due to last year's strong market performance, leading to lower growth rates this year. However, compared to the same period in 2023, there was still a 14% increase in sales [6][7] - Consumer sentiment remains relatively stable, but the tightening of trade-in and scrapping subsidy policies has led to a cautious market outlook, with many consumers adopting a wait-and-see attitude [6][7] Group 4: Inventory and Production Analysis - As of the end of October 2025, the inventory of passenger cars in the industry was 3.41 million units, an increase of 130,000 units from the previous month and 440,000 units from October 2024. This indicates a seasonal inventory buildup [11] - The production of new energy vehicles saw fluctuations, with inventory levels rising from 620,000 units in September to 730,000 units in October, although this is still below peak levels [11][12] Group 5: Battery Market Insights - In October, the production of power and other batteries reached 171 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 49%. Cumulatively, from January to October, the production reached 1,293 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 45% [12] - The market for lithium batteries is characterized by strong competition, with CATL and BYD holding significant market shares. The share of lithium iron phosphate batteries has surpassed that of BYD since 2024 [13]

Group 1: Market Overview - From August 1 to 24, the national passenger car retail market reached 1.285 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3% compared to the same period last year, and a cumulative retail of 14.031 million units for the year, up 10% [1][4] - During the same period, wholesale of passenger cars was 1.341 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with a cumulative wholesale of 16.866 million units for the year, up 13% [1][6] - The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 56.6%, with retail sales of 727,000 units for the year, a 27% increase [1][4] Group 2: Weekly Sales Data - In the first week of August, the average daily retail was 45,000 units, down 4% year-on-year, but up 6% month-on-month [3] - The second week saw an average daily retail of 59,000 units, up 8% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month [3] - The third week recorded an average daily retail of 60,000 units, up 6% year-on-year but down 5% month-on-month [3] Group 3: Economic and Policy Impact - The strong economic growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year has reduced pressure on local economies, leading to stable promotional policies in the automotive market [4] - The recent issuance of the third batch of subsidy funds and the gradual restart of trade-in policies are expected to improve sales growth in August [4] - The market is anticipated to stabilize as subsidy distribution becomes more rhythmic and controlled [4] Group 4: Import and Export Analysis - From January to July 2025, imports of automobiles totaled 270,000 units, a significant year-on-year decline of 32% [7][8] - In contrast, exports of Chinese automobiles reached 4.18 million units during the same period, with a year-on-year growth of 20% [10][11] - The export of new energy vehicles saw a remarkable increase, with 1.71 million units exported from January to July 2025, a 46% increase year-on-year [11][12] Group 5: Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of the end of July 2025, the national passenger car inventory was 3.29 million units, a decrease of 30,000 units from the previous month [12][13] - The overall inventory pressure has significantly decreased compared to previous years, with the current inventory supporting an estimated 47 days of sales [13]

Group 1: Automotive Market Overview - As of the end of May 2025, the national passenger car inventory in China stood at 3.45 million units, a decrease of 50,000 units from the previous month but an increase of 160,000 units compared to May 2024, indicating a sustained high inventory level [1] - The current inventory supports a sales duration of 54 days, which is slightly higher than 54 days in May 2023 and 51 days in May 2024, suggesting increased overall inventory pressure [1] Group 2: New Product Launches - Li Auto's first pure electric SUV, the Li i8, is set to be launched in late July 2023, with preparations for production, training, and delivery nearing completion [2] - Jianghuai Automobile Group is accelerating the development of the second and third products under the ZunJie brand, following the mass production of the ZunJie S800 [3] Group 3: Corporate Responses and Strategies - NIO has responded to speculation regarding bringing in strategic investors for its chip business, stating that such information is speculative [2] - Changan Automobile has initiated an investigation into organized smear campaigns against its brand, confirming the validity of reports regarding malicious activities on social media [3] - Audi has issued a statement affirming its commitment to electric mobility and the need for a flexible product portfolio that includes BEVs, PHEVs, and ICE vehicles, acknowledging market differences globally [4][5] Group 4: Joint Ventures and Collaborations - Toyota Tsusho and LG Energy Solution have announced plans to establish a joint venture for automotive battery recycling in North Carolina, aiming to create a supply chain for recycling materials like nickel, cobalt, and lithium for new battery production, with operations expected to start in 2026 [5]