分析机构称，后市OPEC+仍将维持较大增产力度，地缘局势整体也趋于缓和，且美国关税问题依然存在一定不确定性，预计下一轮成品油调价下调的概率 较大。 国家发改委官网7月29日发布消息，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，本次国内汽、柴油价格不作调整。 至此，国内成品油价格现已经历十五轮调整，呈现"六涨六跌三搁浅"格局。涨跌互抵后，年内汽、柴油价格整体分别较2024年底下跌225元/吨、215元/吨。 由于上一轮成品油价刚经历了一波下调，每升92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油分别下调0.1元、0.1元、0.11元，本次调价搁浅，意味着全国大多数地区车柴价 格将继续维持7元-7.2元/升，92号汽油零售价7.4元-7.5元/升的水平。 本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格窄幅波动。隆众资讯介绍，从供应端来看，石油输出国组织OPEC+将在8月初举行新一轮会议，预计9月仍将维持较大增产 力度，且9月可能提前完成220万桶/日的原定增产计划。 下一次调价窗口将在8月12日24时开启。隆众资讯表示，展望后市，OPEC+仍将维持较大增产力度，地缘局势整体也趋于缓和，且美国关税问题依然存在一 定不确定性，预计下一轮 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that international crude oil prices have surged, with both WTI and Brent crude oil experiencing a daily increase of 2.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices indicates a trend of increasing costs for consumers and logistics companies, driven by international oil price fluctuations and geopolitical tensions [1][2][3]. Price Adjustment Summary - As of June 17, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been raised by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively, marking the twelfth round of price adjustments this year, which includes five increases, five decreases, and two periods of no change [1]. - After balancing the increases and decreases, gasoline and diesel prices have decreased by 330 yuan/ton and 315 yuan/ton, respectively, compared to the end of 2024 [2]. - The price per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel will increase by 0.2 yuan, 0.21 yuan, and 0.22 yuan, respectively, leading to diesel prices reaching 6.9-7.1 yuan/liter and 92-octane gasoline prices reaching 7.3-7.4 yuan/liter [2]. Impact on Consumers and Logistics - The price increase will result in higher fuel costs for private car owners and logistics companies. For instance, filling a 50-liter tank will cost an additional 10 yuan, and for vehicles consuming 7-8 liters per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will rise by approximately 1.5 yuan per 100 kilometers [2]. - For large logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons, the fuel cost will increase by about 8.8 yuan per 100 kilometers [2]. Future Price Trends - The international oil prices have been rising due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the military actions between Israel and Iran, which have heightened concerns over potential oil supply risks [2][3]. - The next price adjustment window will open on July 1, 2025, and analysts predict a significant increase in fuel prices based on current international oil price levels [2][3]. - Overall, the likelihood of an increase in fuel prices in the next adjustment cycle is considered high due to ongoing geopolitical instability and improving demand conditions [3].

Core Insights - International crude oil prices continue to rise, with WTI crude increasing over 5% to $63.83 per barrel and Brent crude rising 4.5% to $65.66 per barrel [1] Price Movements - WTI crude oil price reached $63.83 per barrel after a daily increase of over 5% [1] - Brent crude oil price reached $65.66 per barrel after a daily increase of 4.5% [1]

5月19日，国家发改委发布消息称，自24时起，国内汽油价格和柴油价格分别下调230元/吨和220元/吨。折合升价，92 号汽油下调0.18元，95号汽油和0号柴油均下调0.19元。 此次调价后，私家车和物流企业用油成本有所下降。 按照油箱容量为50L的家用轿车为例，加满一箱92号汽油将节省9元；对于月跑1万公里，百公里油耗在38L的重型卡车 为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油成本将减少361元左右。 本轮是2025年第十次调价，也是今年的第五次下调。本次调价过后，2025年成品油调价将呈现"三涨五跌两搁浅"的格 局。 卓创资讯表示，本次下调落实后，国内多地92号汽油将有望自2021年底之后重新进入"6元时代"，0号柴油亦有望进入 2021年以来的低位水平，部分省份进入"6.5元"以内。 智通财经记者 | 田鹤琪 国内成品油价迎年内第五次下调。 图片来源：隆众资讯 截至5月19日北京时间上午7时，WTI即月原油期货开盘涨0.07%，报62美元/桶；布伦特即月原油期货开盘涨0.01%，报 65.36美元/桶。 下一轮成品油的价格预期尚不明朗，各家机构存在分歧。 隆众资讯原油分析师李彦表示，展望后市，虽然市场 ...