1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight EIA inventory exceeded expectations, continuing to suppress oil prices. However, there was destocking in downstream and refined oil, which partially stabilized prices. The market showed signs of stabilization after a significant decline. The IEA monthly report increased concerns about crude oil supply - demand surplus. Short - term negatives have been fully exposed. In the short term, oil prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate. SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investment should be on the sidelines [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: More Fed policymakers are cautious about further easing due to inflation concerns and relatively stable labor market after two interest rate cuts this year, reducing the probability of a December rate cut to below 50%. Trump signed a temporary appropriation bill to end the 43 - day federal government shutdown. The IEA warns of a large - scale oil market surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day next year [3]. - **Basis**: On November 13, with Oman crude oil at $64 per barrel and Qatar Marine crude at $63.38 per barrel, the basis was 29.90 yuan/barrel, indicating a spot premium over futures [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels in the week ending November 7. EIA inventory increased by 6.413 million barrels (expected 1.96 million). Cushing area inventory decreased by 34,600 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 3.464 million barrels as of November 13 [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was below the average [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of September 23, WTI crude oil main positions were long and increasing; as of November 4, Brent crude oil main positions were long and decreasing [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term oil prices will stabilize and fluctuate. SC2512 will trade between 450 - 460, and long - term investment should be on the sidelines [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **IEA Outlook**: The IEA sees "considerable downside risks" in Russia's crude oil production but maintains its estimate of 9.3 million barrels per day for this quarter and next year until more details are available [5]. - **Fed Policy**: More Fed policymakers are cautious about further easing, reducing the market - perceived probability of a December rate cut to below 50% [3][5]. - **EIA Report**: Commercial crude inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels to 428 million barrels, with an expected increase of 1.96 million barrels. Cushing crude inventory decreased by 34,600 barrels. Strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 798,000 barrels to 410.4 million barrels. Heating oil inventory increased by 55,000 barrels, refined oil inventory decreased by 637,000 barrels, and gasoline inventory decreased by 945,000 barrels [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The cancellation of US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia; OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1 next year [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Easing Middle - East situation; consistent expectations of crude oil surplus from institutions [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term negatives have been exhausted, and geopolitical positives are not obvious. There is a long - term risk of oversupply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Brent crude oil settled at $63.01 (up $0.30, 0.48%); WTI at $58.69 (up $0.20, 0.34%); SC at 454.4 (down 12.2, - 2.61%); Oman at $63.56 (down $1.43, - 2.20%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: UK Brent Dtd at $62.34 (down $0.20, - 0.32%); WTI at $58.69 (up $0.20, 0.34%); Oman at $64.00 (down $2.30, - 3.47%); Shengli at $59.33 (down $2.41, - 3.90%); Dubai at $63.88 (down $2.49, - 3.75%) [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels to 45.1739 million barrels in the week ending November 7. EIA inventory increased by 6.413 million barrels to 42.7581 million barrels in the same week [10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of November 4, the net long position was 152,231, a decrease of 19,336 [17].

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases in Q1 2026 due to seasonal factors, which has boosted market sentiment but does not change the reality of expected oversupply in H1 2026 [1][2] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Insights - By April 2025, OPEC+ is expected to have increased production by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day, with actual increases reaching 2.11 million barrels per day by the end of September, leaving a potential increase of 800,000 barrels per day [1] - The market anticipates a supply surplus of between 190,000 to 300,000 barrels per day in 2026, influenced by seasonal demand weakness in Q1 [1][3] Group 2: Geopolitical and Supply Factors - Geopolitical risks, particularly movements in Venezuela and Nigeria, could lead to actual supply losses, potentially altering the oversupply expectations for 2026 [3] - The increase in non-OPEC supply, particularly from North America, Brazil, and Guyana, continues to rise, which may limit OPEC+'s ability to cut production effectively [2][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Recommendations - The market's long-term oil price expectations remain strong, with potential shifts in supply-demand balance depending on domestic strategic reserve replenishment and geopolitical risks [5] - The oil and gas engineering service sector is expected to see continued recovery, particularly in offshore projects, as they represent the lowest cost for new marginal capacity [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the polyester sector, short - term supply and demand drivers are insufficient, the cost center moves down, and the sector continues its weak pattern. In the long - term, it is under pressure due to cost decline, expected supply increase, and weak demand [29]. - For methanol, in the short - term, it shows range - bound fluctuations with price volatility risks. In the long - term, it may rebound if the signals are positive [47][48]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil Information - India may stop buying Russian oil, which could reconfigure global trade flows and tighten supply. The US and Russia will hold a meeting, and the IEA predicts an increase in global oil supply in 2025 and 2026 with weak demand. US economic data release is postponed, and economic activity shows some weakness [5]. - US refined product demand has mixed changes compared to last year. As of October 10, the average daily demand for total refined products is 2066.9 million barrels, down 0.5% from last year [6]. - US crude oil production hits a new high. As of October 10, daily production is 1363.6 million barrels, up 7000 barrels from the previous week and 13.6 million barrels from last year. Commercial crude inventory increases, while gasoline and distillate inventories change differently [7]. Polyester Product Prices and Basis - Prices of polyester products such as polyester bottle chips, short - fibers, and polyester filaments decline week - on - week. Basis values also show various changes [9]. PX Supply - Urumqi Petrochemical's 100 - million - ton device is under maintenance, and domestic PX production and capacity utilization decline slightly. Asian PX load rebounds slightly. Next week, PX supply is expected to decline slightly [12]. PTA Supply - Hengli Petrochemical reduces production, and Yisheng New Materials increases load. This week, PTA supply decreases slightly, and social inventory is reduced. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly [15]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - This week, domestic ethylene glycol supply decreases slightly. Port inventory accumulates, but next week, the accumulation pace may slow down due to reduced arrivals and increased demand [16]. Polyester End - The average weekly polyester start - up rate is 87.78%, down 0.02 percentage points week - on - week [17]. Polyester Inventory - Short - fiber inventory decreases, while long - filament inventory accumulates significantly [21]. Terminal Demand - Orders increase slightly, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom start - up rate is stable, and the peak season is not prominent [25]. Methanol Sector Methanol Price and Basis - Futures and spot prices of methanol change. The basis of MA2601 increases, and downstream product prices also show different trends [31]. Methanol Cost and Profit - This week, coal - based and coke - oven gas - based profits narrow slightly, and natural gas - based losses improve slightly. Olefin profits decline significantly, and traditional downstream profits are squeezed [37]. Methanol Supply - As of October 16, methanol start - up rate is 87.42%, down 2.11 percentage points, and production is 198.36 million tons, down 2.36% from the previous period. This week, more devices are under maintenance than those returning [40]. Methanol Demand - MTO start - up rate remains stable at 94%, and traditional downstream products show mixed performance with most at low levels [43]. Methanol Inventory - As of October 15, port inventory is 149.14 million tons, down 3.36%, and inland inventory is 35.99 million tons, up 6.04%. Port inventory decreases due to unloading issues and MTO support, while inland inventory accumulates [46].

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is considering accelerating its production increase plan to regain market share, with a proposal to increase output by approximately 500,000 barrels per day over three months [2][3] Group 1: Production Plans - An anonymous OPEC+ representative revealed discussions about accelerating the latest production increase plan, proposing an increase of about 500,000 barrels per day each month for three months [2] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on October 5 will address how to release the remaining production capacity of 1.66 million barrels per day [2] - Earlier this month, OPEC+ announced a new production increase of only about 137,000 barrels per day, raising questions about when the remaining capacity will be released [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated that the global oil market may face a record supply-demand surplus next year, with new production potentially exacerbating this pressure [2] - Traders are particularly focused on China's significant oil purchases to fill its strategic reserves, despite the anticipated oversupply [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Saudi Arabia is seeking to reclaim global market share lost to competitors like U.S. shale oil producers [3] - Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is scheduled to meet with U.S. President Trump before November, amid calls for lower oil prices [4] - Recent comments from analysts suggest that the resumption of oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region and OPEC+'s potential increase in production are contributing to downward pressure on oil prices [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the prospects of energy - chemical holiday strategies. It believes that the current trading logic of crude oil is a game between short - term emotional positives from geopolitical or threat - sanction news and medium - term supply - demand surplus fundamentals. The probability of the crude oil price center shifting down in the fourth quarter is high. For futures, most energy - chemical products have a weakening trend, and for options, the potential of put - buying strategies is analyzed [1][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Holiday Potential Driving Events and Possible Impacts - There are two scenarios for the September non - farm payrolls data to be released on October 3. If it continues to weaken, the previous interest - rate cut expectations will continue. If there is an upward revision of the August data and the September data stabilizes, it may correct the current optimistic interest - rate cut expectations, having a negative impact on gold, silver, copper, and crude oil, but it's not enough to break the $60 support for WTI unless there is a collective slump in risk assets [1]. - At the OPEC+ meeting on October 5, OPEC is expected to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October and may partially or fully restore 1.65 million barrels per day in the future. Whether the continued or unexpectedly high production increase can drive the crude oil price below the $60 support is worth attention, as a breakdown may lead to a large decline in overseas crude oil futures during the holiday [1]. 3.2 Futures Strategy Since August, most short - selling strategies in the evening reports, except for crude oil, have achieved significant profits. The holiday strategy is to actively take half - position or more profits and keep a partial position. The weak fundamentals of most energy - chemical products remain unchanged, and the downward trend continues [2]. 3.3 Put - Buying Strategy - **Current Background**: The trading logic of crude oil is a game between short - term positives and medium - term negatives. The probability of the crude oil price center shifting down in the fourth quarter is high [4]. - **Advantages**: The absolute volatility of overseas crude oil futures during holidays has significantly increased in recent years. For put options, as long as the absolute price movement of the underlying asset is large enough, the option yield far exceeds the futures yield [4]. - **Disadvantages**: Before long holidays, the implied volatility of put options has been rising rapidly, resulting in high premiums for put options before holidays and a lower cost - effectiveness compared to four or five years ago [4]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The investment in put - buying should not exceed 5% - 15% of the account funds, depending on the contract month. Generally, the 11 - contract should not exceed 5%, the 12 - contract should not exceed 10%, and the farther 12 - contract should not exceed 15%. One can also use the previous futures profits for partial investment. When buying put options, one should consider whether the profit from the absolute price change during the 8 - day National Day holiday can exceed the time value and volatility value depreciation [5]. - **Value Estimation**: Taking the 11 - contract P out - of - the - money 4 - strike put option of crude oil as an example, the total depreciation is about 70%. The value of the put option is the same as before the holiday when the 11 - contract opens 3.2% lower after the holiday, and it doubles when it drops 5%. For the 12 - contract P out - of - the - money 5 - strike put option of crude oil, the total depreciation is about 35%. The value of the put option is the same as before the holiday when the 12 - contract opens 2.3% lower after the holiday, and it doubles when it drops 6.5%. For the 12 - contract P out - of - the - money 2.5 - strike put option of PX, the total depreciation is about 55%. The value of the put option is the same as before the holiday when the 12 - contract opens 1.6% lower after the holiday, and it doubles when it drops 3.2% [6]. - **Alternative Option**: Usually, other energy - chemical products follow crude oil, so generally, only crude oil put options are considered. But this year, due to the high premium of crude oil put options and relatively low implied - volatility premium of PX12 - contract put options, PX12 can be a second choice [6].

Group 1 - OPEC+ increased production during the meeting on September 7 and announced an adjustment to the voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day starting from October 2025, with a reduction of 137,000 barrels per day [1][2] - There is a significant oversupply expectation in the crude oil market this year, with OPEC+ aiming to capture more market share [2] - The upcoming hurricane season and high operational activity may increase the likelihood of risk events that could support oil prices [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with further rate cuts anticipated, indicating a shift towards domestic easing policies [3] - The industry concentration is expected to increase, benefiting leading companies such as New Fengming (603225) and Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233) in the polyester filament sector [3] - In the context of increasing profit pressure, domestic low-cost ethylene leaders like Baofeng Energy (600989) and Satellite Chemical (002648) are expected to benefit from the reduction of overseas refining and ethylene capacity [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the report analyzes multiple chemical products, with most showing a bearish or neutral outlook. The main influencing factors include supply - demand fundamentals, cost drivers, and geopolitical events. For crude oil, despite short - term geopolitical support, the medium - term supply surplus is likely, so a bearish view is maintained [1][2]. - For other products like styrene, rubber, and synthetic rubber, factors such as high inventory, weak demand, and cost pressure contribute to their bearish or neutral stances [5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increase and seasonal weakening of US demand, a supply surplus is likely in the second half of the year. The strategy is based on the bearish medium - term fundamentals [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory persist, and new device production in September - October will add to the supply pressure. The bearish view remains [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. After a long - negative break today, the 15 - minute cycle is bearish with a pressure level at 7100. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [5]. Rubber - Logic: Overseas raw material prices have fallen, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high pressure remains. The demand is neutral with no major contradictions [8]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a long - negative break today, the short - term downward trend is confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [8]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost of butadiene, with increasing port inventory and future supply pressure. The bearish view is based on cost [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 11730 [14]. PX - Logic: PX profit has recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery in the polyester peak season is slower than expected. The main driver is the cost of crude oil [16][18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 6760. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [18]. PTA - Logic: PTA supply has increased, and demand remains high but with weak terminal demand. The main driver is the cost of crude oil [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [19]. PP - Logic: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new device production. The strategy is to be cautious about short - selling after the price decline [22][23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 6975. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: High operating rate and high imports have led to inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profit has improved, the bearish view remains [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low today, the strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2435 [26]. PVC - Logic: High production and high inventory persist due to high - profit烧碱 and weak domestic demand. The fundamentals are under pressure [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a long - negative break today, the strategy is to wait and see at the hourly level [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The operating rate of MEG and downstream has little change, and inventory is slightly decreasing. However, future supply pressure from new devices should be noted [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 4335 [30]. Plastic - Logic: PE operating rate has declined, but new capacity has been put into production. Demand has improved slightly in the peak season but is still below expectations. Further decline depends on the weakening of crude oil [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - loss at 7270 [33]. Soda Ash - Logic: Supply has increased slightly, and the high - production and high - inventory situation remains. After a price decline, short - selling should be cautious, and there is no upward driver in the short term [37]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. After a long - negative break today, the 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 1320. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [37]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Supply of liquid chlorine is sufficient, and demand from alumina and other industries has recovered. Inventory has decreased, and the short - term fundamentals have improved. The medium - term focus is on device maintenance and demand improvement [40]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a long - negative break today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2625 [40].