AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 此外，沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（Mohammed bin Salman）将于11月前往华盛顿，与美国总统特朗普会面——此前特朗普曾多次呼吁降低油价。 尽管美国供应充足，但欧佩克仍决定"开闸增产"，这给原油市场带来一定压力。美、布两油周二日内跌近1%，延续了周一的跌势，此前布伦特原油和WTI 原油均创下自8月1日以来的最大单日跌幅。 PVM分析师塔马斯・瓦尔加（Tamas Varga）指出，在伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区原油出口即将时隔两年重启后，油价已出现下跌，而欧佩克+的消息人士暗示将 再次增产，这进一步加剧了抛售压力。 近几周来，市场始终保持谨慎态度，在供应风险（主要源于乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的无人机袭击）与供应过剩及需求疲软的预期之间寻求平衡。 音频由扣子空间生成 一位匿名的欧佩克+代表透露，该联盟正商议"加速推进"最新一轮增产计划，拟分三个月、每月增产约50万桶/日，以夺回市场份额。 该代表表示，沙特及其盟友将在10月5日召开会议时讨论如何"加速释放"剩余166万桶/日的增产额度。目前尚未作出最终决定，而"每月增产约50万桶/日"是 当前备选方案之一。 本月早些时候，欧 ...

能化假期策略前瞻简述 假期潜在驱动事件与可能影响： 1.10 月 3 日公布 9 月非农的两种情况。 一种在此前两次非农大幅爆冷后继续走弱，此时市场无非延续此 前的降息预期（对原油影响不大）。 另一种情况按历史统计与季节性来看，上个月公布的 8 月新增非 农初值有较大概率在 10 月出现上修，如对前值出现较大上修与 9 月 非农能企稳的情况，可能会对目前较乐观的降息预期进行纠偏降温， 除了对金融属性较强的金银铜有较大影响外，对风险资产的原油也会 有偏空驱动，但除非风险资产集体大跌，否则尚不足以使 WTI 破 60 美元支撑。 2.10 月 5 日的 OPEC+会议。目前预计 OPEC 计划 10 月增产 13.7 万桶/日，未来可能部分或全部恢复 165 万桶/日的产量。关注 10 月 OPEC 会议延续增产或出现超预期增产后能否作为事件驱动推动原油 下 60 美元支撑，如出现破位，假期内外盘原油或出现较大跌幅。 期货策略： 期货策略逻辑较简单，8 月以来我们晚报中跟踪的空单策略除了 原油外基本都盈利空间都下移较多，已经产生较大获利，假期策略只 要主动止盈半仓或更多留部分仓位过节即可，多数能化的弱势基本面 并 ...

新一轮重点行业稳增长方案出台推动行业格局进一步优化 该行预计随着美联储9月份降息25bp后靴子落地，后续两次降息预期增加，国内的宽松政策也在路上。 该行推荐行业集中度进一步提升，龙头充分受益的涤纶长丝龙头新凤鸣（603225）、桐昆股份 （601233）。此外，盈利压力增加背景下海外炼化、乙烯产能去化，国内低成本乙烯龙头受益，推荐宝 丰能源（600989）、卫星化学（002648）。此外，继续推荐受益"反内卷"背景的炼化龙头恒力石化、荣 盛石化（002493）、中长期看，推荐上游低估值高股息标的中国海油（600938）、中国石油 （601857），推荐现金流稳定的昆仑能源。 OPEC+在9月7日会议增产 并宣布调整从2025年10月开始实施每天165万桶的额外自愿减产中每天13.7万桶的产量调整，今年原油 供需存在大幅过剩预期。OPEC+进一步释放抢占原油市场份额的预期。近期欧盟对俄罗斯开启18次制 裁和美国对于印度购买原油征收二次关税，欧洲对俄罗斯制裁更多体现在运费上从而影响俄罗斯原油出 口价格。短期俄罗斯原油出口并未受到影响。旺季过后油价的疲软也对页岩油钻机数构成挤压，美国油 气巨头相机启动大规模裁员，全 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the report analyzes multiple chemical products, with most showing a bearish or neutral outlook. The main influencing factors include supply - demand fundamentals, cost drivers, and geopolitical events. For crude oil, despite short - term geopolitical support, the medium - term supply surplus is likely, so a bearish view is maintained [1][2]. - For other products like styrene, rubber, and synthetic rubber, factors such as high inventory, weak demand, and cost pressure contribute to their bearish or neutral stances [5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increase and seasonal weakening of US demand, a supply surplus is likely in the second half of the year. The strategy is based on the bearish medium - term fundamentals [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory persist, and new device production in September - October will add to the supply pressure. The bearish view remains [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. After a long - negative break today, the 15 - minute cycle is bearish with a pressure level at 7100. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [5]. Rubber - Logic: Overseas raw material prices have fallen, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high pressure remains. The demand is neutral with no major contradictions [8]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a long - negative break today, the short - term downward trend is confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [8]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost of butadiene, with increasing port inventory and future supply pressure. The bearish view is based on cost [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 11730 [14]. PX - Logic: PX profit has recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery in the polyester peak season is slower than expected. The main driver is the cost of crude oil [16][18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 6760. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [18]. PTA - Logic: PTA supply has increased, and demand remains high but with weak terminal demand. The main driver is the cost of crude oil [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [19]. PP - Logic: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new device production. The strategy is to be cautious about short - selling after the price decline [22][23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 6975. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: High operating rate and high imports have led to inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profit has improved, the bearish view remains [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low today, the strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2435 [26]. PVC - Logic: High production and high inventory persist due to high - profit烧碱 and weak domestic demand. The fundamentals are under pressure [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a long - negative break today, the strategy is to wait and see at the hourly level [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The operating rate of MEG and downstream has little change, and inventory is slightly decreasing. However, future supply pressure from new devices should be noted [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 4335 [30]. Plastic - Logic: PE operating rate has declined, but new capacity has been put into production. Demand has improved slightly in the peak season but is still below expectations. Further decline depends on the weakening of crude oil [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - loss at 7270 [33]. Soda Ash - Logic: Supply has increased slightly, and the high - production and high - inventory situation remains. After a price decline, short - selling should be cautious, and there is no upward driver in the short term [37]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. After a long - negative break today, the 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 1320. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [37]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Supply of liquid chlorine is sufficient, and demand from alumina and other industries has recovered. Inventory has decreased, and the short - term fundamentals have improved. The medium - term focus is on device maintenance and demand improvement [40]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a long - negative break today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2625 [40].