Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2) Core View of the Report - The crude oil price has rebounded from the low level recently, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the resistance above still exists. The fuel oil market has limited overall drivers with a mix of long and short factors [2]. - The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil has stabilized and rebounded recently, but the supply is still abundant, and the new 164,000 tons of FU futures warehouse receipts this week, with a total of 234,000 tons, suppress the market [2]. - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase due to changes in refinery maintenance. Although the end - of - year demand for marine fuel is boosted and there is component diversion by gasoline and diesel, the supply is abundant, and the valuation will be continuously suppressed [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.08% at 2,480 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.47% at 3,014 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Other strategies (cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options): None [3] Charts - There are 18 charts in total, including Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot prices, swap contracts, month - to - month spreads, and domestic fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China will decrease by 170 yuan and 165 yuan per ton respectively, effective from December 22, marking the last price adjustment of the year and achieving a "three consecutive declines" in retail fuel prices [1] - The average price of 92-octane gasoline will drop by approximately 0.13 yuan per liter, while 95-octane gasoline and 0-octane diesel will decrease by about 0.14 yuan per liter [1] - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost about 6.5 yuan less after the adjustment [1] Group 2 - The international oil price has been primarily declining due to concerns over supply surplus, exacerbated by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict negotiations [2] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for U.S. oil production in 2025 to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day, contributing to the supply increase and downward pressure on oil prices [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported a continuing severe supply surplus in the global oil market, with rising production and inventory levels expected to persist for some time [2] Group 3 - The outlook for oil surplus has led OPEC to pause its production increase plans for the first three months of 2026 [3] - Analysts predict that geopolitical uncertainties and a weak global oil demand will maintain the supply surplus situation [3] - Citigroup suggests that OPEC+ is likely to support oil prices around $60 per barrel in 2026-2027, while Bank of America forecasts Brent crude futures to be below $60 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 [3] Group 4 - The recent price adjustment will reduce costs for private car owners and logistics companies, with an estimated reduction of 0.98 yuan per 100 kilometers for typical vehicles and 5.6 yuan for logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons [4] - The next price adjustment window is set for January 6, 2026, with expectations of a potential price increase due to geopolitical risks and seasonal demand during the Christmas period [4] - Analysts indicate that while geopolitical risk premiums may provide some support for oil prices, the overall upward potential remains limited due to current low oil prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, neutral - bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, neutral - bearish [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price has shown signs of stabilizing in the past two days after continuous decline, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed. The progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks may negatively affect oil prices, and the crude oil end will continue to suppress the unilateral prices of FU and LU. The current fundamentals of the fuel oil market have both long and short factors with limited overall contradictions [2]. - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil are average, but the crack spread has shown signs of stabilizing after a significant correction. In addition to the support from refinery demand, Russia's exports declined again in December. The estimated shipment volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in Russia in December is 1.72 million tons, a decrease of 680,000 tons compared with the previous month. The supply of Russian refineries has been continuously disrupted by drone attacks in Ukraine [2]. - The overall driving force of the low - sulfur fuel oil market is limited. Due to the dynamic changes of the devices, there is room for local supply to increase. However, the shipment volumes of Kuwait and Nigeria in December have not increased significantly for the time being, and the bunker fuel terminal demand has been boosted at the end of the year. The bunker fuel sales volume in Singapore increased by 8% month - on - month in November. Coupled with the diversion of components by gasoline and diesel, the market pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is currently limited [2]. 3. Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 2.01% at 2,429 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.59% at 2,931 yuan/ton [1] 4. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, neutral - bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, neutral - bearish [3] - Cross - variety: No strategy [3] - Cross - period: No strategy [3] - Spot - futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil short-term rating: Neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil short-term rating: Neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Cross-variety rating: None [3] - Cross-period rating: None [3] - Spot-futures rating: None [3] - Options rating: None [3] Group 2: Core View - The market continues to oscillate weakly with limited drivers. The cost side will continue to suppress the unilateral price of fuel oil, and both FU and LU will operate in a weak oscillation [1]. - The overall market contradictions of fuel oil are currently limited. The high-sulfur fuel oil market structure is in an adjustment phase, and the supply is relatively abundant with a high floating storage volume, but the recent increase in imports provides some support [1]. - The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is not short, and short-term contradictions are relatively limited. The high-low sulfur spread is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside space is limited [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis High-sulfur Fuel Oil - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.57% at 2,681 yuan/ton [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil market structure is in adjustment, and the cracking spread has dropped significantly from the high level. The supply is abundant, and the floating storage volume is high, with excess to be digested [1]. - As the cracking spread and premium decline, the refinery processing profit has marginally improved, and the recent import volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in China has shown an upward trend, supporting the market [1]. Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.67% at 2,986 yuan/ton [1]. - The overall supply is not short, and short-term contradictions are limited. The shipping volume of Kuwait has remained zero since November due to the extended maintenance of the Azur refinery, and its two CDU units are expected to restart in mid - and late - December [2]. - The RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery has been under maintenance since December 8 (planned maintenance until January 26), and the export of Nigerian low-sulfur fuel oil may increase again during the maintenance period [2]. Spread - The high-low sulfur spread is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil lack obvious drivers [2]. Group 4: Strategy High-sulfur Fuel Oil - Short-term strategy: Neutral, slightly bearish [3] Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Short-term strategy: Neutral, slightly bearish [3] Cross-variety - No strategy [3] Cross-period - No strategy [3] Spot-futures - No strategy [3] Options - No strategy [3] Group 5: Figures - Figures include the spot price, swap near-month contract, near-month spread, futures contract closing price, index closing price, and trading volume and open interest of Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil FU, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU, with corresponding units and data sources [4][5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Cross - product: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The night session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.08%, at 2476 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.7%, at 3037 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices rebounded slightly from recent lows, but the medium - term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical premium may further fade, and the cost side exerts some pressure on the unilateral price of fuel oil. The current overall market contradictions of fuel oil are limited. The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil is in the adjustment stage, and the support below comes from the incremental demand of refineries. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall market supply remains relatively abundant, but the shutdown of Azul Refinery has alleviated local pressure. According to IIR, the maintenance time of two CDU units at Azul Refinery has been extended, with the restart postponed from November 29 and December 9 to December 6 and December 25. The tightening of Kuwaiti supply provides short - term support for the low - sulfur fuel oil market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.08% at 2476 yuan/ton, and the night session of the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.7% at 3037 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices rebounded slightly from recent lows. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached, the geopolitical premium may fade, and the cost side may suppress the unilateral price of fuel oil [1] - The overall market contradictions of fuel oil are limited. High - sulfur fuel oil's market structure is adjusting, with support from refinery demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, but Azul Refinery's shutdown eases local pressure. The refinery's restart is postponed, and Kuwait's supply tightening supports the low - sulfur fuel oil market [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Cross - product, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: No strategies provided [2] Figures - There are multiple figures showing prices, spreads, and trading volumes of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, as well as fuel oil futures in China, with their respective units and data sources from Flush, Steel Union, and Huatai Futures Research Institute [3][4]