（来源：南京玛合雅） 来源：市场资讯 一、【市场关注】 1、基于美国农业部压榨周报的计算结果显示，截至2025年11月21日当周，美国大豆压榨利润为每蒲 2.73美元，比一周前减少12.2%。作为参考，2024年的压榨利润平均为2.44美元/蒲，低于2023年的3.29 美元/蒲。 2、AmSpec：马来西亚11月1-25日棕榈油出口量为987978吨，较上月同期出口的1182216吨减少16.4%。 AmSpec：马来西亚11月1-20日棕榈油出口量为828680吨，较上月同期出口的965066吨减少14.1%。 3、据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至11月22日，巴西大豆播种率为78%，上周为 69%，去年同期为83.3%，五年均值为75.8%。 4、据Mysteel调研显示，截至2025年11月21日，全国重点地区豆油、棕榈油、菜油三大油脂商业库存总 量为222.40万吨，较上周增加0.10万吨，涨幅0.04%；同比去年同期上涨25.30万吨，涨幅12.84%。 全国重点地区豆油商业库存117.99万吨，环比上周增加3.14万吨，增幅2.73%。同比增加11.40万吨，涨 幅10.70% ...

Report Title - Weekly Report on Oils and Fats: Poor High - frequency Data of Malaysian Palm Oil, Oils and Fats Oscillating Weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - High - frequency data shows that Malaysian palm oil production increased significantly in October while exports were poor, and the inventory may slightly accumulate. Palm oil lacks positive drivers and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, but there is a long - term upward potential. Domestic soybean oil may experience slight de - stocking, and there is some support from exports. Domestic rapeseed oil continues to de - stock marginally, providing some support for its price [4][21]. Summary by Section 1. International Market 1.1 Malaysian Palm Oil - Production: MPOA data indicates a 11% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 20 days of October. UOB expects the increase to be between 10% - 14%, and SPPOMA predicts a 2.71% increase compared to the same period last month. It is expected to slightly increase in October and be higher than the 5 - year average [7]. - Exports: ITS data shows a 0.4% decline in Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 25 days of October. Overall, exports in October are expected to be average and lower than the 5 - year average. The inventory in October is expected to reach 235 - 245 tons [7]. 1.2 Indonesian Palm Oil - Biodiesel consumption: In January - September 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption was 10.57 million liters, nearly 10% more than the same period last year. The implementation of biodiesel this year is smooth but may not reach the target. - Policy: Indonesia plans to raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel to 50% in the second half of 2026. The predicted biodiesel target for next year is 17.55 - 17.85 million tons, with an increase in CPO of 1.8 - 2.1 million tons. However, some analysts expect the B50 policy to be postponed to 2027, which still disturbs the market [10]. 2. Domestic Market 2.1 Palm Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025 (Week 42), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 575,700 tons, a 5.13% increase from last week. It is currently at a slightly lower - than - average level in the same historical period. - Import: Palm oil imports were poor in September, only 190,000 tons. The cumulative imports from January - September were 2.25 million tons, at a historical low. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 120. It is expected that imports in October and November will exceed 200,000 tons. The basis is expected to be stable and weak. - Market outlook: In the short term, high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil is negative, and domestic palm oil is slightly accumulating inventory. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, but there is a long - term upward potential [13]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.224 million tons, a 3.25% decrease from last week. - Supply and demand: This week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.3674 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.13%. Spot transactions were weak, and there were reports of small - scale exports to India. In the future, as soybean arrivals and crushing decrease, inventory may slightly de - stock, but overall supply is sufficient. - Market outlook: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips for the 05 contract [16]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 549,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same historical period but is continuously de - stocking. - Supply and demand: This week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 11,000 tons, with an operating rate of 2.93%. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil increased to around $1100, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 900. Rapeseed oil imports were relatively stable, while rapeseed imports decreased significantly to 115,000 tons. - Market outlook: The overall upward momentum of oils and fats is weak. The rapeseed oil market may fluctuate due to changes in rapeseed purchases and crushing. The current fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the continuous marginal de - stocking still supports the price [19]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Oils and fats are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see for now. Consider going long on dips after the market stabilizes. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents 2. Core View of the Report - After the stagnation or decline of crude oil, the oils and fats are expected to experience a compensatory decline due to the weak fundamentals. It is recommended to take short positions with a light hand or buy put options [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged compared to the previous day at 8640, 8570, and 8490 respectively [1] - **First - grade soybean oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu decreased by 20 compared to the previous day, reaching 8140, 8240, and 8190 respectively [1] - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu decreased by 100 compared to the previous day, reaching 9680, 9700, and 9880 respectively [1] 3.2 Futures Data - **Soybean - palm oil main contract spread**: On June 25, 2025, it was - 360, an increase of 16 compared to the previous day [1] - **Rapeseed - soybean main contract spread**: On June 25, 2025, it was 1492, a decrease of 130 compared to the previous day [1] - **Palm oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 0 [1] - **Soybean oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 18882 [1] - **Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 100 [1] 3.3 Palm Oil Information - **Malaysian production**: According to MPOA, from June 1 - 20, production decreased by 4.55% compared to the same period last month; according to SPPOMA, from June 1 - 20, production increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month, from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4%, from June 1 - 10, it decreased by 17%, and from June 1 - 5, it increased by 10% [2] - **Malaysian exports**: According to ITS, from June 1 - 25, exports increased by 7% compared to the previous period; from June 1 - 20, exports increased by 14% compared to the same period last month; from June 1 - 15, it increased by 26.3%; from June 1 - 10, it increased by 26.3% [2] - **Weather**: Malaysian precipitation is expected to be moderately low, which is beneficial for current production [2] 3.4 Soybean Information - **Argentine soybean harvest**: As of June 18, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 soybean season in Argentina was 96.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than a week ago but still 2 percentage points behind last year. Early - sown soybeans were 98.4% harvested with an average yield of 3.16 tons per hectare, and late - sown soybeans were 91% harvested with an average yield of 2.5 tons per hectare [2] - **US soybean situation**: According to USDA, as of the week ending June 22, the sowing progress of US soybeans reached 96%, higher than the previous week's 93% but lower than the analysts' average expectation of 97% and the five - year average of 97%. The emergence rate was 90%, higher than the previous week's 84% and in line with the historical average. The first - reported flowering rate this week was 8%, higher than last year's and the historical average of 7%. The good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the same as last week and lower than the analysts' expectation of 67% [2] - **US weather**: Precipitation in the US is expected to be moderately high in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for improving soil moisture [2]

Report Information - Report Date: June 11, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Analysts: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - MPOB's latest data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May reached an eight - month high. Strong exports only offset part of the increase in production and imports. The report is slightly positive for palm oil. Malaysia's export data for the first 10 days of June is good, supporting the market, and palm oil continues to fluctuate. [7] - For rapeseed oil, although China and Canada have restarted negotiations, there are few rapeseed purchases after June - July. The domestic spot and basis are strong, and the 9000 level has strong short - term support. [7] - Brazil's abundant soybean supply continues to pressure the market. Attention should be paid to recent soybean imports and crushing. An improved supply situation may bring pressure to soybean and oil products. [7] Market Quotes and Operation Suggestions - **Quotes**: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 60 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). East China market soybean oil basis price: First - grade soybean oil: July - September: 09 + 260; October - January: 01 + 320; April - June: 05 + 280. Guangdong market first - grade soybean oil spot price: Dongguan: Y2509 + 260. East China port 24 - degree palm oil: P09 + 440 yuan/ton (truck transport only), June shipment P09 + 380 yuan/ton, July shipment P09 + 400 yuan/ton. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to weather, tariffs, and biodiesel policies of various countries, as well as soybean imports and crushing. [7] Industry News - **Malaysia Palm Oil Data**: In May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.7716 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.05%; imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.32%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.62%; and the end - of - month inventory was 1.9902 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%. [8] - **Malaysia Palm Oil Export in June**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 371,600 tons, a 26.4% increase compared to the same period in May. According to AmSpec, exports were 327,355 tons, an 8.1% increase compared to the same period in May. [8] - **Domestic Palm Oil Inventory**: As of the end of the 23rd week of 2025, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 365,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous week; the contract volume was 24,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week. [9] - **Brazilian Soybean Sales**: As of June 6, 2025, Brazilian farmers had sold 64% of the expected 2024/25 soybean production (about 110.35 million tons). This is lower than 71.8% in the same period last year and 76.9% of the five - year average. Due to factors such as weak global prices and high logistics costs, farmers' overall sales willingness is conservative. [9] Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot prices and basis changes of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil basis changes, and P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, and exchange rates of US dollars against Ringgit and Renminbi. [14][15][23]