研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | 6 87 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 : | | | 最高价：最低价：收盘价：涨跌 深跌幅 | | | | 成交量:持企量 持企量变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The weekly futures prices of oils and fats showed a divergent trend. The Y2601 soybean oil contract rose 0.88% to close at 8,256 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract fell 0.18% to close at 8,644 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract rose 4.09% to close at 9,923 yuan/ton [5][30]. - The current price of US soybeans is running strongly, and the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has increased the uncertainty of the forward soybean import cost, providing bottom support for soybean oil and making it highly resistant to decline. The palm oil market mainly focuses on the change of supply and demand dynamics in the producing areas. The news of the implementation of Canada's biodiesel policy boosted market sentiment. Coupled with the continuous tight supply of domestic rapeseed oil, the market's bullish sentiment is high, and the futures price of rapeseed oil has increased significantly. In addition, the high inventory of soybeans at domestic ports and the slow recovery of the terminal catering demand for oils and fats will also suppress the upward space of oil prices. It is expected that oils and fats will run in a range [9][31][32]. Group 2: Important Information Palm Oil - On November 10, MPOB released the official supply and demand data of Malaysian palm oil for October. The production in October was 2.044 million tons, exports were 1.693 million tons, and inventory was 2.464 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.4%. Malaysian palm oil rose 0.36% [6]. - The production in October increased 11% month-on-month, slightly lower than MPOA's estimate of 2.07 million tons. Exports in October increased 18.6% month-on-month, far exceeding the previous market estimate of 1.47 - 1.48 million tons. The inventory estimate was close to the initial estimates of Bloomberg and Reuters at 2.44 million tons but lower than the adjusted estimated inventory of 2.5 - 2.6 million tons after MPOA's production data adjustment [30]. Soybean Oil - USDA released the November supply and demand data. In this report, the carry-over stock of old US soybeans in the 2024/25 season was lowered from 330 million bushels to 316 million bushels. For the new balance sheet of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season, the yield per acre was lowered from 53.5 bushels/acre to 53 bushels/acre. The crush remained unchanged at 2.555 billion bushels, exports were lowered from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and the carry-over was lowered from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels. The report data was basically in line with market expectations, and the yield data was not surprising, with the impact on prices showing as the exhaustion of bullish factors. US soybeans rose 0.47% this week [7][31]. Group 3: Spot Analysis - As of November 14, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,560 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current spot price is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [10]. - As of November 14, 2025, the spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,590 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current spot price is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [11]. - As of November 13, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,300 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current spot price is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [13]. Group 4: Other Data - As of November 7, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 88,000 tons to 1.37 million tons. On November 12, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 633,000 tons [17]. - As of November 13, 2025, the inventory of imported soybeans at ports was 8,189,470 tons [20]. - As of November 14, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 304 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current basis is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [21]. - As of November 14, 2025, the basis of 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong was -54 yuan/ton, up 128 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current basis is at an average level compared to the past five years [22]. - As of November 13, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 325 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current basis is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [24].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oils and fats [1] - Report date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 9132 | 9190 | 9278 | 9186 | 9252 | 120 | 31% | 27698 | 83089 | 1606 | | P2601 | 9370 | 9442 | 9528 | 9430 | 9482 | 112 | 1.20% | 591669 | 451732 | 18379 | | Y2605 | 8056 | 8060 | 8152 | 8090 | 8122 | 66 | 0.82% | 44087 | 226828 | 4786 | | Y2601 | 8356 | 8398 | 8448 | 8384 | 8418 | 62 | 0.74% | 297563 | 597762 | 1330 | | O1605 | 9517 | 9517 | 9604 | 9472 | 9586 | 69 | 0.73% | 23590 | 41526 | 2856 | | Ol601 | 9877 | 9918 | 10063 | 9900 | 10053 | 176 | 1.78% | 350650 | 333040 | 51403 | [7] - East China's third - grade rapeseed oil basis prices: September - October: OI2601 + 220; November - December: OI2601 + 230. First - grade rapeseed oil: September: OI2601 + 310; October: OI2601 + 330. First - grade soybean oil basis prices in East China market: Spot: Y2601 + 150; October: Y2601 + 160; October - January: Y2601 + 190; February - May: Y2601 + 130; April - July: Y2605 + 200. East China's 24 - degree palm oil liquid oil distribution quotes: September basis P2601 - 50; October basis P2601 + 0; October - November basis P2601 + 50 [7] Core Viewpoints - Macro aspect: The press conference of the China's Ministry of Commerce on international trade negotiations did not mention specific issues regarding Sino - US agriculture, causing market concerns about future supply. The three major oils increased in positions and prices, especially the rapeseed oil main contract OI601, which increased positions by more than 50,000 lots and broke through the 10,000 - point mark, reaching a one - month high. Near - term rapeseed oil continued the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply sources. Traders mainly pushed up prices for sales, and the basis quotes continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - Canadian trade and the supply of rapeseed raw materials. The Malaysian market was closed on Tuesday, and the Dalian palm oil fluctuated strongly. The domestic spot market was relatively quiet, mainly trading on origin information. Due to the high soybean crushing volume of oil mills, domestic soybean oil continued to accumulate inventory, with high inventory levels and abundant supply. However, the market was worried about the long - term soybean supply, and the cost side provided strong support, so soybean oil lacked room to decline. It is recommended to mainly buy low and go long on the three major oils [8] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil exports to China were 0.83 tons, a decrease of 0.57 tons compared to last week's 1.4 tons [10] - According to data from the Southern Palm Oil Manufacturers' Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA), from September 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 2.7% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.09% month - on - month. Shipping survey agency ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10 were 476,610 tons, a 1.2% decrease compared to the 482,576 tons exported from August 1 - 10. Exports to China were 0.8 tons, higher than the 0.1 tons in the same period last month. Shipping survey agency SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10 were 244,940 tons, a 27.8% decrease compared to the 339,143 tons exported from August 1 - 10 [11] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include East China's third - grade rapeseed oil spot price, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil spot price, South China's 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][15][23][28][29]

Group 1 - As of September 5, 2025, the main contract for soybean oil futures closed at 8450 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.10% [1] - The trading volume decreased by 5702 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - Domestic edible oil inventory reached 2.7017 million tons, with a weekly increase of 109300 tons, marking a 4.22% rise week-on-week and a 19.10% increase year-on-year [2] Group 2 - In July, the U.S. exported 28,583 tons of soybean oil, the lowest level since November of the previous year [2] - There are concerns regarding the demand for U.S. soybeans as Chinese buyers have not placed orders for new U.S. soybeans [3] - The upcoming release of export and inventory data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is expected to influence market trends [3]

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a downward trend, with canola oil futures showing a decline of 2.73% as of August 14, with prices fluctuating between 9825.00 and 10064.00 CNY per ton [1] - The import price for Canadian canola oil remains stable at 1035 USD per ton for September shipment and 1015 USD per ton for November shipment, indicating no change from the previous trading day [1] - The number of canola oil futures warehouse receipts remains unchanged at 3487 contracts, reflecting a stable market condition [1] Group 2 - The short-term outlook for oilseed prices is influenced by a seasonal decline in consumption and a relatively loose supply of domestic vegetable oils, which is expected to restrain market prices [2] - The low operating rate of oil mills is reducing production pressure for canola oil, while the supply-side pressure is further alleviated by fewer canola shipments in the third quarter [2] - The implementation of temporary anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola by China is expected to weaken future supply, contributing to increased market volatility [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the stabilization of international oil prices and a slight increase in palm oil futures, domestic oilseed contracts have recorded a third consecutive day of decline, indicating ongoing market pressures and the need to monitor domestic canola purchases and trade relations with Canada [1][4]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1-25 increased by 6.63% to 1,057,466 tons compared to the same period last month, indicating a potential easing of inventory pressure [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) forecasts a 4.55% decrease in palm oil production for June 1-20, with significant regional variations in output [2]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in April fell to 1.78 million tons, down from 2.18 million tons year-on-year, while production increased slightly to 4.48 million tons [2]. Group 2: Indian Market Impact - India canceled a 65,000-ton palm oil order due to rising prices, which may disrupt the previously strong purchasing momentum following a reduction in import taxes [3]. - India's June soybean imports are expected to drop by 18% to 325,000 tons, the lowest level in four months, due to port congestion affecting delivery schedules [3]. Group 3: Domestic Oilseed Supply and Demand - Domestic oilseed inventories have risen, with total commercial stocks reaching 2.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [4]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is projected to reach 9.5 million tons for June, supported by high supply levels [5]. - The current oversupply of soybeans is exerting downward pressure on soybean oil prices, while palm oil inventories are also increasing due to higher import volumes [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently focused on the tight canola inventory situation and the impact of weather on crop growth, with expectations of increased volatility in the near term [6]. - The recent decline in crude oil prices has negatively affected oilseed performance, leading to expectations of weak fluctuations in the short term [7].