基本面差异，油脂走势分化 研究报告 油脂周报 【行情复盘】： | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 | | 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 | | 电话：13609351809 | | 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 7 | | 年 月 星期一 报告日期：2025 11 17 | 本周油脂期价走势分化，全周豆油 Y2601 合约上涨 0.88%， 以 8256 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2601 合约下跌 0.18%以 8644 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2601 合约上涨 4.09%，以 9923 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 榈油方面：11 月 10 日，MPOB 公布了 10 月马棕官方供需数据。 其中马棕 10 月产量 204.4 万吨，出口 169.3 万吨，库存 246.4 万 吨，环比增加 4.4%。马棕榈油上涨 0.36%。 7 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 星期一 豆油方面：USDA 公布十一月供需数据，本次报告中，美豆 2024/25 ...

研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 9 月 17 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | | 合药 | 前结身价 : | 开盘价 : | 最高价 j | 最低价 : | 收盘价 | :流跌: | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持企业 | 特分重要化 | | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - As of September 5, 2025, the main contract for soybean oil futures closed at 8450 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.10% [1] - The trading volume decreased by 5702 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - Domestic edible oil inventory reached 2.7017 million tons, with a weekly increase of 109300 tons, marking a 4.22% rise week-on-week and a 19.10% increase year-on-year [2] Group 2 - In July, the U.S. exported 28,583 tons of soybean oil, the lowest level since November of the previous year [2] - There are concerns regarding the demand for U.S. soybeans as Chinese buyers have not placed orders for new U.S. soybeans [3] - The upcoming release of export and inventory data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is expected to influence market trends [3]

8月13日，郑商所菜油期货仓单3487张，环比上个交易日持平。 8月14日，国内期市油脂油料板块多数飘绿。其中，菜籽油期货主力合约开盘报10050.00元/吨，今日盘 中低位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，菜籽油主力最高触及10064.00元，下方探低9825.00元，跌幅达 2.73%。 8月13日，进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿大菜油(9月船期)1035美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；加拿大菜 油(11月船期)1015美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 后市来看，菜籽油期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 瑞达期货（002961）表示，短期而言，油脂消费淡季，国内植物油供给较为宽松，继续牵制市场价格。 不过，油厂开机率维持低位，菜油产出压力明显减弱。同时，三季度菜籽买船较少，供应端压力降低。 另外，我国对加菜籽实施临时反倾销措施，进一步弱化远期供应。盘面来看，前一日大幅跳涨后，隔夜 菜油震荡收跌，市场波动加大，仍以偏多参与为主。 大越期货支持，油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期 较高，马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the stabilization of international oil prices and a slight increase in palm oil futures, domestic oilseed contracts have recorded a third consecutive day of decline, indicating ongoing market pressures and the need to monitor domestic canola purchases and trade relations with Canada [1][4]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1-25 increased by 6.63% to 1,057,466 tons compared to the same period last month, indicating a potential easing of inventory pressure [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) forecasts a 4.55% decrease in palm oil production for June 1-20, with significant regional variations in output [2]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in April fell to 1.78 million tons, down from 2.18 million tons year-on-year, while production increased slightly to 4.48 million tons [2]. Group 2: Indian Market Impact - India canceled a 65,000-ton palm oil order due to rising prices, which may disrupt the previously strong purchasing momentum following a reduction in import taxes [3]. - India's June soybean imports are expected to drop by 18% to 325,000 tons, the lowest level in four months, due to port congestion affecting delivery schedules [3]. Group 3: Domestic Oilseed Supply and Demand - Domestic oilseed inventories have risen, with total commercial stocks reaching 2.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [4]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is projected to reach 9.5 million tons for June, supported by high supply levels [5]. - The current oversupply of soybeans is exerting downward pressure on soybean oil prices, while palm oil inventories are also increasing due to higher import volumes [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently focused on the tight canola inventory situation and the impact of weather on crop growth, with expectations of increased volatility in the near term [6]. - The recent decline in crude oil prices has negatively affected oilseed performance, leading to expectations of weak fluctuations in the short term [7].