截至2025年9月5日当周，豆油期货主力合约收于8450元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周减持5702手。 本周（9月1日-9月5日）市场上看，豆油期货周内开盘报8360元/吨，最高触及8460元/吨，最低下探至 8296元/吨，周度涨跌幅达1.10%。 瑞达期货（002961）：国际方面，迄今为止中国尚未订购一船美国新豆，中国买家持续缺席美国市场， 令人担心美国下个月即将收获的大豆面临需求不足的前景。中美贸易谈判成为市场焦点。国内市场上， 院校已经开学，院校食堂以及周边餐馆采购对豆油行情有支撑，但近端进口大豆到量仍然较高，油厂维 持高开机率，豆油供应维持宽松局面，不过随着中秋国庆到来，预计豆油库存很快见顶，有回落的可 能。 截止到2025年第35周末，国内三大食用油库存总量为270.17万吨，周度增加10.93万吨，环比增加 4.22%，同比增加19.10%。其中豆油库存为142.03万吨，周度增加5.29万吨，环比增加3.87%，同比增加 15.12%。 机构观点汇总： 宏源期货：下周马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）公布的出口与库存数字可能左右市场走势，市场关注焦点 在于产量增加和库存是否回升，不过从时间来看 ...

8月13日，郑商所菜油期货仓单3487张，环比上个交易日持平。 8月14日，国内期市油脂油料板块多数飘绿。其中，菜籽油期货主力合约开盘报10050.00元/吨，今日盘 中低位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，菜籽油主力最高触及10064.00元，下方探低9825.00元，跌幅达 2.73%。 8月13日，进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿大菜油(9月船期)1035美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；加拿大菜 油(11月船期)1015美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 后市来看，菜籽油期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 瑞达期货（002961）表示，短期而言，油脂消费淡季，国内植物油供给较为宽松，继续牵制市场价格。 不过，油厂开机率维持低位，菜油产出压力明显减弱。同时，三季度菜籽买船较少，供应端压力降低。 另外，我国对加菜籽实施临时反倾销措施，进一步弱化远期供应。盘面来看，前一日大幅跳涨后，隔夜 菜油震荡收跌，市场波动加大，仍以偏多参与为主。 大越期货支持，油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期 较高，马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the stabilization of international oil prices and a slight increase in palm oil futures, domestic oilseed contracts have recorded a third consecutive day of decline, indicating ongoing market pressures and the need to monitor domestic canola purchases and trade relations with Canada [1][4]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1-25 increased by 6.63% to 1,057,466 tons compared to the same period last month, indicating a potential easing of inventory pressure [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) forecasts a 4.55% decrease in palm oil production for June 1-20, with significant regional variations in output [2]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in April fell to 1.78 million tons, down from 2.18 million tons year-on-year, while production increased slightly to 4.48 million tons [2]. Group 2: Indian Market Impact - India canceled a 65,000-ton palm oil order due to rising prices, which may disrupt the previously strong purchasing momentum following a reduction in import taxes [3]. - India's June soybean imports are expected to drop by 18% to 325,000 tons, the lowest level in four months, due to port congestion affecting delivery schedules [3]. Group 3: Domestic Oilseed Supply and Demand - Domestic oilseed inventories have risen, with total commercial stocks reaching 2.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [4]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is projected to reach 9.5 million tons for June, supported by high supply levels [5]. - The current oversupply of soybeans is exerting downward pressure on soybean oil prices, while palm oil inventories are also increasing due to higher import volumes [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently focused on the tight canola inventory situation and the impact of weather on crop growth, with expectations of increased volatility in the near term [6]. - The recent decline in crude oil prices has negatively affected oilseed performance, leading to expectations of weak fluctuations in the short term [7].