该行预计十五五风电增量重点向海发展，海风规划有望加速。 智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，短期，陆上风电/海上风电招标在2025年前三季度分别实现 97/5GW招标，2025年1-11月分别实现124/8.6GW核准，2026-2027年风电需求有望持续高增。中长期： 风电出力曲线与负荷需求匹配度较高、市场化竞争电价波动性小，"十五五"风电在新能源装机占比有望 从25%提升至50%，实现单年装机达130GW。政府工作报告首次明确提出"发展海上风电"，该行预计十 五五风电增量重点向海发展，海风规划有望加速。 2025年国内东方电缆、中天科技、亨通光电均中标高压/柔直海缆，较220KV海缆盈利性更高，可改善 海缆企业盈利结构。欧洲海风需求高增，但欧洲本土海缆厂订单排产至2030年前后，产能爬坡期存在海 缆需求外溢，国内三大家海缆厂有望获得欧洲订单。欧洲、东南亚电力互联需求增长，据TGS预测， 2025-2040年海缆总计需求23.18万km、其中电力互联需求约8.9万公里;电力互联多采用525kvHVDC，参 照海风海缆，，因此海底电力互联可翻倍海缆需求。目前全球只有5家公司具备HVDC电缆制造能力(以 欧 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2026 01 11 年 月 日 风电设备 风电 2026 年行业策略：国内需求稳升，出海加速，国内外盈利共振 国内风电需求稳中有升，海风静待规划落地。如何看待中长期风电需求，主要从 短期、中长期两个维度判断。短期，陆上风电/海上风电招标在 2025 年前三季度 分别实现 97/5GW 招标，2025 年 1-11 月分别实现 124/8.6GW 核准，2026-2027 年风电需求有望持续高增。中长期：风电出力曲线与负荷需求匹配度较高、市场化 竞争电价波动性小，"十五五"风电在新能源装机占比有望从 25%提升至 50%， 实现单年装机达 130GW。国务院总理李强作政府工作报告，首次明确提出"发展 海上风电"，我们预计十五五风电增量重点向海发展，海风规划有望加速。 欧洲海风有望持续加速，浮式风电进入 0-1 周期。欧洲政策加大海风扶持力度， 多国家推动海上风电计划总规模近 100GW，大部分拍卖均采用 CfDs 模式，丹麦、 荷兰也有为重启 CfDs。欧盟降息已达 200 基点，利好海风建设。欧洲 2025 年拍 卖量高企有望超 19.5GW，FID 已 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for 大金重工 Company Overview - 大金重工 is positioned as a solution provider for wind power systems, particularly in the offshore wind sector, where it holds a global leading position. The company is actively expanding into floating wind power and logistics transportation, creating a differentiated competitive advantage, although these advantages are not yet fully reflected in its valuation [2][3]. Key Growth Drivers - Future performance growth is driven by rapid expansion in overseas marine engineering business and the gradual realization of second and third curve businesses. The company’s own vessels are expected to contribute to new performance starting in 2026, alongside the development of deep-sea floating foundation supply and a global logistics system [2][4][5]. Market Position and Valuation - The company has the potential to grow into an 80 to 100 billion market cap company, benefiting from a diversified strategic layout and high-value product export capabilities. Key growth areas include overseas marine engineering, specialized shipping, shipbuilding, and renewable energy generation [2][6]. - The estimated valuation for 2026 is around 20 times earnings, which does not fully reflect the potential of the company’s strategic layout, such as floating foundation supply and self-owned transportation vessels [2][7]. Revenue Composition - In the first half of 2025, 95% of the company’s revenue came from wind power equipment products, primarily for overseas sales, with overseas revenue accounting for 80% and gross profit margin close to 90%. Renewable energy generation contributed approximately 4% [2][8]. Future Business Lines - The company’s future business lines include: 1. Rapidly growing offshore engineering business 2. Global logistics system, expected to start contributing in 2026 3. Deep-sea floating foundation supply, also expected to start contributing in 2026 [2][9]. Market Perception and Expectations - There is a market perception gap regarding the company, which is often viewed as a single manufacturing entity focused on offshore wind monopiles, primarily exporting to Europe and Japan. However, the company is more than just a manufacturer; it is a comprehensive wind power system solution provider [3][10]. Short-term Performance Expectations - The company’s performance expectations for 2025 have been raised to 1 to 1.1 billion, up from an initial estimate of 700 million, driven by new business realization and higher-than-expected unit net profit. Further upward adjustments are possible for 2026 due to rising export prices and the launch of the first transportation vessel [4][12]. Business Development and Orders - The company has shown significant growth in its marine engineering business, with shipping volumes increasing from approximately 100,000 tons in 2023 to nearly 200,000 tons in 2025. The net profit per ton has also increased significantly, indicating strong demand and pricing power [4][13]. Competitive Advantages - The company has demonstrated strong strategic determination and execution in its business layouts, particularly in the European offshore market. Its manufacturing bases are among the best in the industry, providing a competitive edge in meeting overseas client capacity requirements [15][18]. Financial Performance - The company has seen a notable increase in return on equity (ROE) as its overseas business share has grown. Historical stock price analysis shows significant outperformance compared to the wind power index since late 2021, driven by favorable market developments and order acquisitions [18][19]. Conclusion - Overall, 大金重工 is positioned for substantial growth with a diversified business model and strong market demand. The company’s strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies suggest a promising outlook for future performance and valuation enhancement [2][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned to leverage the significant potential and policy benefits of the European offshore wind market over the next 3-5 years, with opportunities for market share expansion in emerging markets like Japan and South Korea [1][15] - The company has established a leading position in the offshore pile export market, transitioning to a "manufacturing + service" full industry chain model, which enhances its order growth and profitability [2][3] - The company has successfully completed the switch to a DAP (Delivered at Place) product model, enhancing its service capabilities and increasing order value [2][25] - The company is proactively entering the floating foundation market, forming a dedicated team in Europe and collaborating with leading international solution providers to reduce overall costs [3][31] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the only supplier in the Asia-Pacific region to deliver offshore products to the European market, having successfully entered this market since 2019 and securing multiple overseas project orders since 2022 [2][21] - The company has a robust order backlog, covering major European offshore wind market players [2][21] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 65.1 billion, 84.0 billion, and 97.4 billion CNY respectively, with a significant increase in net profit forecasted to 10.5 billion, 13.7 billion, and 17.6 billion CNY [3][33] - The company expects a substantial growth in net profit, with year-on-year increases of 122%, 30%, and 28% for the respective years [3][33] Market Positioning - The company has completed the layout of three major offshore engineering bases, enhancing its production capacity and positioning itself as a key player in the global offshore engineering market [16][22] - The company is actively participating in the bidding for offshore wind projects in Japan and South Korea, establishing strong relationships with key players in these markets [23][24]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for major companies in the offshore wind sector, including 大金重工 and 明阳智能, while maintaining "Hold" for 东方电缆 and 天顺风能 [7] Core Insights - The offshore wind market is entering a growth cycle, particularly in Europe, with expected installations of 4.5GW and 8.4GW in 2025 and 2026 respectively, driven by favorable policies and declining material costs [1][11] - The demand for subsea cables is surging due to the high growth in offshore wind and electricity interconnection projects, with a projected CAGR of 27% for global offshore wind installations from 2024 to 2030 [2] - The European offshore wind foundation market is experiencing a price increase due to local capacity shortages, with prices for single piles expected to rise by 13% and 10% in 2023 and 2024 respectively [3] Summary by Sections Demand - Europe is set to see significant growth in offshore wind installations, with a total of 48.36GW expected from 2025 to 2030, primarily driven by the UK, Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands [14] - The European Union has updated its offshore wind capacity targets to 111GW by 2030 and 317GW by 2050, indicating strong policy support for the sector [16] Subsea Cables - The demand for subsea cables is expected to rise sharply due to the increasing need for offshore wind and electricity interconnection, with a capital expenditure plan of €400 billion by ENTSO-E for renewable integration by 2050 [2] Offshore Wind Foundations - The local production capacity for offshore wind foundations in Europe is expected to become tight around 2027, leading to price increases as demand outstrips supply [3] Wind Turbines - Chinese wind turbine manufacturers, such as 明阳智能, are entering the European market with a significant price advantage, being 19-24% cheaper than Western counterparts [3] - 明阳智能 has secured a 270MW project in Germany, showcasing its competitive edge in the European offshore wind market [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies like 东方电缆 and 中天科技 are well-positioned to benefit from the local capacity shortages in Europe, while 大金重工 is expected to see strong order fulfillment and performance [4]